May 24, 2017

Markets: Gold, Silver, US Stocks

So far in 2017 the S&P 500 Index (SPDR S&P 500 Index ETF (SPY)) is up just under 7 percent but the price of gold (SPDR Gold Trust ETF (GLD)) and silver (iShares Silver ETF (SLV)) are up about 7.5%

Now despite the fact that both precious metals and the US stock market have performed about the same thus far in 2017, Americans are rushing to buy US stocks yet they're completely ignoring precious metals. This despite the fact that the Dow Jones Industrials (DJIA) or the S&P 500 Index (SPDR S&P 500 Index ETF (SPY)) is at an all-time record high and the valuations are clearly in bubbled territory. Yet when it comes to gold and silver even though they're doing well this year, gold prices are about 30 percent below their peak price in 2011 and silver is better than 60 percent below its peak price. 

So despite the fact that gold and silver are outperforming the S&P 500 Index (SPDR S&P 500 Index ETF (SPY)) this year they have a much further way to go to get back to their highs.

May 23, 2017

US Dollar: The Decline Has Just Begun

The US Dollar continues its losing streak. The US Dollar Index was down for the 8th time in nine days. The US Dollar Index actually traded below 97 for the first time since Donald Trump was elected President, so we have wiped out 100 percent of the ill-gotten dollar gains that were racked up in the wake of that victory. and if you remember when the dollar was rallying as a result of the Trump victory I said it was a sucker's rally that it was a head-fake rally and sure enough that's exactly what it was but the US Dollar decline has only just begun.

May 22, 2017

SALT Conference: Gundlach on Stocks

His conclusion was that the US stocks are very expensive and that people should sell US stocks and invest in foreign stocks. In particular Gundlach likes the emerging markets. He was also very bearish on the dollar saying the same kind of stuff as me saying that the crowd is wrong, that this is a crowded trade (that the US Dollar is going to go up) because the Federal Reserve raising rates is wrong.

May 19, 2017

Markets: Trump Scandal, A Crash In Brazil

So this should rattle confidence as should the drop in the stock market if it continues. But despite that this drop is not very large, I mean look at what's happening in Brazil.  The Brazilian market is getting obliterated, it's crashed, I mean you got a lot of these Brazilian stocks today are down 10 to 20 percent based on a political scandal in Brazil where they they have a recording of the president of Brazil offering a bribe and they've got that on audio recording. 

The market is crashing because they're calling for resignation or impeachment there now of course it's the same problem here although I guess they've got a better case against the Brazilian president.

This shows you what can actually happen with a market that's smaller when everybody wants to get through the same door at the same time, the liquidity is not there and prices collapse.

The same thing could eventually happen to the United States but of course if we had a drop today like they're experiencing the Brazil the Federal Reserve would be out there, they would be cutting rates they would be telegraphic QE4 they would be doing whatever they could to try to reverse the decline in the market. (SPDR S&P 500 Index ETF (SPY), SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF (DIA), Nasdaq 100 Index ETF (QQQ), iShares MSCI Brazil Index (ETF) (EWZ))

May 17, 2017

Video: Retail Stocks Bloodbath


The retail bloodbath. Retails stocks have been hit hard recently. (Kohl's Corp (NYSE:KSS), Nordstrom Inc. (NYSE:JWN), Macy's Inc (NYSE:M))

May 16, 2017

Stocks: The Retail Apocalypse (JCP, JWN, KSS, M)

Let me get into what I want to talk about. First of all it's the retail apocalypse which I have been talking about that from my perspective and not just my perspective, I think in reality the retail sector is in worse shape worse shape today than it was in 2008 during and immediately following the financial crisis.

And you know we got a lot of bad news from the retailers this week including J. C. Penney Inc (NYSE:JCP),  and Nordstrom, Inc. (NYSE:JWN) horrible sales from these companies and we had other retailers earlier in the week that came out with with bad news as Kohl's Corp (NYSE:KSS) department store.

If you look at some of the stocks like Kohl's Corp (NYSE:KSS),  trading at $36.50 - that stock was at $75-80 in the summer of 2015, so it's down 60 percent or so.

Dillard's which is at a 52 week low at just under $47 that was over a $120 more than a 50% decline.

Macy's Inc (NYSE:M) was down another 3 percent today, a new 52 week low. Macy's Inc (NYSE:M) is at 23.60 and Macy's Inc (NYSE:M) was like a $70 stock in the summer of 2015.

These are huge markdowns for these retailers.

May 12, 2017

Gold: Holding On To Some Key Support

The last time I was talking I thought gold looked really good short-term on the chart,  I thought it looked like it was going to go up to 1300. Instead it went the opposite way, it went down towards 1200. Well it didn't get that low, it's just below 1220.

But you know it shows you that you know technical analysis doesn't always work. You know you're not just going to automatically get rich because you're looking at a chart. I thought the weak economic data would be a catalyst for gold. We got the weak economic data but gold went down anyway.

Now, it still looks like it's holding on to some key support. Gold is still doing well this year it's still beating the US stock market considerably this year as is just about every other market in the world I mean the out performance that I've been talking about so far this year between foreign develop markets and especially emerging markets is widening continuing to gain on the US market. (Market Vectors Gold Miners ETF (GDX), SPDR Gold Trust ETF (GLD), Market Vectors Junior Gold Miners ETF (GDXJ), Newmont Mining (NEM), Barrick Gold (ABX))

The U.S. Economy Will Not Grow At 3% This Year.

Wilbur Ross came out this week and admitted that the US GDP is not going to grow at 3 percent this year I mean that's why they pay this guy the big bucks right I mean you don't need to have that much information you know to be that's smart to figure out something that's that obvious but they finally admitted that the economy is not going to grow by 3 percent this year in fact it may even be in a recession this year so it's not only not going to grow by 3 percent it may not grow at all.

May 10, 2017

The Markets Are Beginning To Look Beyond These Rate Hikes

The dollar market is acting much different than the the gold market rather than rising the dollar has been falling. Normally you get some strength of the US Dollar when the probability of an interest rate hike rises because after all higher rates everybody thinks that's bullish for the dollar and so as the probability of a rate hike increases so too does the value of the dollar but that didn't happen this time in fact the dollar closed the day at about a six-month low in the dollar index.

I think what's happening is the markets are beginning to look beyond these rate hikes to see the next rate cut understanding that the Fed is not going to come close to delivering the type of tightening that it had been indicating was coming that we are not going to normalize interest rates.

Federal Reserve: Raising Rates Into A Recession

It's quite possible that the Federal Reserve does raise interest rates in June even if it ends up that it turns out in hindsight that they raised rates in a recession. (SPDR S&P 500 Index ETF (SPY), SPDR Gold Trust ETF (GLD))

May 9, 2017

Gold Will Rally Before The Fed Raises Rates

I think the gold price is going to rise well before the Fed gets around to raising rates in June if in fact they raise rates. (SPDR Gold Trust ETF (GLD), Gold Futures, Market Vectors Gold Miners ETF (GDX), Market Vectors Junior Gold Miners ETF (GDXJ))

May 8, 2017

Why Is The Fed Willing To Keep Raising Rates?

One of the reasons this might be the case is because the Federal Reserve is more concerned about having some ammunition to fight the next recession rather than simply postponing the onset, meaning that they want to get interest rates further above zero before the recession officially begins so that once it's here they have more room to cut interest rates.

But also I think another reason that the Fed has been more willing to raise interest rates has to do with the action in the US stock market. I thought that the Federal Reserve would be reluctant to raise interest rates for fear of how the higher rates might impact the stock market but it seems like the stock market has found another prop and is no longer simply relying on cheap money. It's now also relying on hope and optimism surrounding the election of Donald Trump and the idea that somehow he is going to make America great again which includes making the stock market great again with deregulation and tax cuts and all sorts of economic stimulus.

So I think because of this the Fed may feel that it doesn't have to provide as much support because the stock market is rallying in the face of these rate hikes.

The Fed Will Raise Rates Again in June

Following Friday's slightly better than expected non-farm payroll report the probability of a June interest rate hike is now near one hundred percent. The markets are now certain that a quarter point hike is coming in June and in fact if the Federal Reserve does raise interest rates by a quarter point that will bring the floor of the official rate finally up to 1 percent. (SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF (DIA), SPDR S&P 500 Index ETF (SPY), Nasdaq 100 Index ETF (QQQ), iShares Russell 2000 Index ETF (IWM))

May 5, 2017

Currencies: U.S. Dollar Index May Drop To 60

The U.S. Dollar can fall rather substantially from here. The last time the Dollar Index fell, it bottomed out around 70. So, I think this time it might fall as low as 60 before anybody really gets nervous. 

May 4, 2017

The Bullish Case For The Euro Currency

I think the European Central Bank (ECB) is going to move to a tightening rhetoric, to a tightening bias and they may even start to raise interest rates given how quickly the inflation rate is accelarating in Europe!

May 2, 2017

Monetary Policy: Fed Will Ease, ECB May Tighten!

The U.S. Economy (GDP) is breaking down as European inflation is breaking out. The Federal Reserve easing monetary policy and European Central Bank tightening monetary policy is not the policy divergence markets expect! (EuroStoxx 50 Index, Dax Index, CAC 40 Index, SPDR S&P 500 Index ETF (SPY), SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF (DIA))

May 1, 2017

Weakest Economic Growth in 3 Years!

First quarter GDP growth was the the weakest in 3 years for the first quarter. Why is GDP growth so weak? Well, one reason is because the Federal Reserve raised interest rates even though they barely raised them. Imagine how deep of a recession we would have if the Federal Reserve had delivered the 3 or 4 interest rate hikes in 2016!

Apr 28, 2017

Bearish On The U.S. Bond Market

This time as the U.S. Dollar goes down, it is eventually going to take the bond market down with it. But right now, we have another rally in the bond market, interest rates are falling because people are starting to worry about the weakening U.S. Economy. (iShares Barclays 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT), ProShares UltraShort Lehman 20+ Year ETF (TBT), 10- year U.S. Treasuries)

Trump Has Not Changed Anything Yet

It's business as usual. Obamacare is here to stay, we are not replacing it, we are not even replacing Janet Yellen, it seems that he is ready to renominate her, we are dropping bombs in the Middle East, so what has changed? Nothing.

Apr 26, 2017

Money: Gold, Crypto-Currencies

I do not like any of these crypto-currencies. It does not mean that they cannot go up if people are willing to buy them. It`s not money because it has no value other than its use as a medium of exchange. You need to have intrinsic value. Gold has intrinsic value, it has real physical properties that have been desired for thousands of years. Gold became money because of how valuable it was! (SPDR Gold Trust ETF (GLD))

Apr 24, 2017

The Economy Is Extremely Weak

The economy is extremely weak. That is why Trump is the President. We are dangerously close to an official recession, I think unofficially we have been in a recession for a long time. (SPDR S&P 500 Index ETF (SPY), SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF (DIA))

Nothing Has Really Changed With Trump

It's business as usual. Obamacare is here to stay, we are not replacing it, we are not even replacing Janet Yellen, it seems that he is ready to renominate her, we are dropping bombs in the Middle East, so what has changed? Nothing.

Apr 21, 2017

U.S. Dollar & Bond Market: Going Down

This time as the U.S. Dollar goes down, it is eventually going to take the bond market down with it. But right now, we have another rally in the bond market, interest rates are falling because people are starting to worry about the weakening U.S. Economy.

An Economic Recession Is Looming

We are very, very close to a recession, if not already in a recession.

Apr 20, 2017

Gold Stocks: Big Upside Potential

I think at this point I would just be buying these gold stocks because I think that gold traders are just being too timid and they do not appreciate the explosive nature of the rally that I think is in the immediate future in the price of gold. (Newmont Mining (NEM), Barrick Gold (ABX), NovaGold (NG), Market Vectors Gold Miners ETF (GDX), Market Vectors Junior Gold Miners ETF (GDXJ))

Apr 19, 2017

Gold Stocks: Climbing A Very Steep Wall Of Worry

The reason these gold stocks are not moving higher is because we are climbing a very steep wall of worry. Because there is not a lot of conviction in the gold traders, they still do not get it. They still think that the interest rate hikes are bullish for the U.S. Dollar and bearish for gold. (Newmont Mining (NEM), Barrick Gold (ABX), Goldcorp (GG), NovaGold (NG), Market Vectors Gold Miners ETF (GDX), Market Vectors Junior Gold Miners ETF (GDXJ))

Gold: The Correction Is Over

I think the correction in the price of gold is over but I do think there is some psychological resistance around this 1,300 level but we are going to blow through it and have a quick march up to 1,350. (SPDR Gold Trust ETF (GLD), Market Vectors Gold Miners ETF (GDX))

Apr 18, 2017

The U.S. Dollar Is Overvalued

I believe Donald Trump is correct. The U.S. Dollar is overvalued but he is wrong in his view of how the overpriced U.S. Dollar impacts the U.S. Economy. Because the dollar is overvalued we have an artificially high standard of living and when the dollar starts declining is going to take the American standard of living down with it!

Apr 12, 2017

Trump Rally, Recession

We are not getting the Obamacare repeal, we are not getting the comprehensive tax reform, I mean we are not getting anything and still the stock market has not surrounded any of the gains from the Trump rally that was based on the expectation of a bunch of things that will not happen. What is going to happen is a recession! (SPDR S&P 500 Index ETF (SPY), SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF (DIA), Nasdaq 100 Index ETF (QQQ), iShares Russell 2000 Index ETF (IWM))

Apr 11, 2017

Trump Rally Was Based On Things That Aren't Materializing

We had this huge stock market rally based on repealing Obamacare, that did not happen, based on comprehensive tax reform and that did not happen either! (SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF (DIA), SPDR S&P 500 Index ETF (SPY), Nasdaq 100 Index ETF (QQQ))

Apr 10, 2017

Geopolitical Uncertainty Is Bullish For Gold

In uncertain times, investors and traders are drawn to the gold market. The precious metal proves it once again as the price of gold rose after the United States launched an attack on a Syrian airbase. (SPDR Gold Trust ETF (GLD), Market Vectors Gold Miners ETF (GDX), Market Vectors Junior Gold Miners ETF (GDXJ))

Apr 5, 2017

The Dollar’s Demise

The Dollar’s demise may make it almost impossible for any other currency to fill that role of world reserve currency. I think what’s more likely is we go back to gold being the primary monetary reserve. (SPDR Gold Trust ETF (GLD))

Apr 4, 2017

The Federal Reserve Is Actively Engaged in a Propaganda

Right now, I think the Federal Reserve is actively engaged in a propaganda effort to try to convince everybody that the economy is stronger than it is by raising interest rates even though the economic growth forecasts are collapsing. (Select Sector Financial Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLF), SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF (DIA), SPDR S&P 500 Index ETF (SPY), Nasdaq 100 Index ETF (QQQ))

Apr 3, 2017

The Correlation Between Stocks & The Dollar

If we look at the correlation right now, the U.S. Dollar is starting to trade with the stock market, meaning that when the stock market is up, the U.S. Dollar is up, and when the stock market is down, the U.S. Dollar is going down.

Worst Time To Buy U.S. Stocks!

This is the worst time to be buying U.S. stocks.

(Select Sector Financial Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLF), SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF (DIA), SPDR S&P 500 Index ETF (SPY), Nasdaq 100 Index ETF (QQQ), iShares Russell 2000 Index ETF (IWM))

Mar 31, 2017

Stock Market: The Big, Fat, Ugly Bubble

When Donald Trump run for office he called the stock market a big, fat, ugly bubble. Well, it is certainly bigger, fatter and uglier now. (iShares Russell 2000 Index ETF (IWM), SPDR S&P 500 Index ETF (SPY), SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF (DIA), Nasdaq 100 Index ETF (QQQ), Select Sector Financial Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLF))

Mar 29, 2017

Gold Will Likely Take Out Resistance At $1,260

Gold closed above $1250, we have resistance at $1260. I think we will take it out. (Gold Futures, SPDR Gold Trust ETF (GLD), Market Vectors Gold Miners ETF (GDX), Market Vectors Junior Gold Miners ETF (GDXJ))

Mar 27, 2017

Obamacare Is Going To End, One Way Or Another

Obamacare is going to end, one way or another. (Health Care SPDR ETF (XLV), UnitedHealth Group (UNH))

Trump Agenda: No Comprehensive Tax Reform

I don't think we are going to have any kind of comprehensive tax reform. I think that it would be very productive but I also think it should happen in a context of major reductions in government spending.

Mar 20, 2017

A Bullish Catalyst For The Price Of Gold

What I think it's going to really accelerate the price of gold going up is the fact that interest rates are not going up nearly as much as the market anticipates. (SPDR Gold Trust ETF (GLD), Market Vectors Gold Miners ETF (GDX), Market Vectors Junior Gold Miners ETF (GDXJ))

Mar 17, 2017

The US Economy Is A Mess!

The economy is a mess! Atlanta Fed is now looking for 1.2 percent first quarter GDP growth. It was looking at 3.4 percent growth on February 1st. We are dangerously close to an economic recession.

Mar 16, 2017

U.S. Economy: Department Store Sales Are Collapsing!

Look at what it's happening to Department Stores sales. Department Stores sales are collapsing, this is the worst decline since the 2008 financial crisis. They are falling off the edge of a cliff. (Macy's Inc (NYSE:M), J C Penney Company Inc (NYSE:JCP),  Nordstrom, Inc. (NYSE:JWN), Ross Stores, Inc.(NASDAQ:ROST))

Mar 15, 2017

U.S. Economy, Crude Oil Prices and Interest Rates

We are dangerously close to an economic recession in America. Gasoline demand is down and the is why oil prices are going lower. The interest rate hike is going to make the problem worse. (Energy Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLE), Select Sector Financial Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLF), SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF (DIA), SPDR S&P 500 Index ETF (SPY), United States Oil Fund LP ETF (USO), Nymex Crude Oil Futures)

Mar 13, 2017

Will This Rate Hike Prick The Stock Market Bubble?

This is a gigantic bubble and it has gotten bigger since we elected Trump. Will this next interest rate hike prick the bubble? There is a chance. Eventually the air is going to come out of this bubble. (Select Sector Financial Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLF), SPDR S&P 500 Index ETF (SPY), SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF (DIA), iShares Russell 2000 Index ETF (IWM), Nasdaq 100 Index ETF (QQQ))

Mar 10, 2017

Healthcare Reform Is Going To Be a Disaster

The Republicans on Capitol Hill with the blessing of President Donald Trump are trying to repeal one big healthcare program and replace it with another big government entitlement. It is not going to work, it is going to be another disaster just wrapped up in a different package. (UnitedHealth Group (UNH), iShares NASDAQ Biotechnology Index ETF (IBB), Health Care SPDR ETF (XLV))

Mar 7, 2017

The Real Reason Why Yellen Will Raise Interest Rates

I think the reason the Federal Reserve feels confident to raise interest rates is because the Dow Jones Industrials Average (DJIA) is trading at 21,000. That's why. Just like it felt confident to raise interest rates the first time, in December of 2015 because the markets were giving a false signal that the hike was OK but of course after the rates were hiked the market rallied and then it dumped. We had the worst January in the history of the stock market. (SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF (DIA), SPDR S&P 500 Index ETF (SPY))

Mar 6, 2017

A Fed Interest Rate Hike Is Coming Up

According to Goldman Sachs (GS), the odds of a Federal Reserve interest rate hike coming up at the March meeting which is less than two weeks away is now 95 percent. (SPDR S&P 500 Index ETF (SPY), SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF (DIA), iShares Russell 2000 Index ETF (IWM), Nasdaq 100 Index ETF (QQQ))

Mar 3, 2017

Trump Wants To Make The Government Bigger, Not Smaller!

If we want to strengthen the economy we have to liberate it from the shackles of government. We have to weaken the government  to strenghten the economy. We need a much smaller government. But that is not what Donald Trump wants. Trump spent most of his speech talking about ways to make the government bigger! (SPDR S&P 500 Index ETF (SPY), SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF (DIA), Nasdaq 100 Index ETF (QQQ))

Mar 2, 2017

Bitcoin: Too Volatile For Being Considered As Money

The volatility of Bitcoin is too great on a daily basis to price in it. It is a speculative asset, people own  Bitcoins because they think it will be more valuable in the future.

Mar 1, 2017

Bitcoin Is Not Money, It's a Speculative Asset!

Bitcoin is not digital gold, it is digital fools gold. Today's Bitcoins can be tomorrow's Bitty babies. The whole principal behind Bitcoin was to replicate the properties that made gold uniquely suited to be money, act as an alternative to fiat currencies but it is not really viable as money, it is a potential medium of exchange but it is not a store of value. Meanwhile nobody really uses it as a medium of exchange, it is a speculative asset, people own it because they think it will be more valuable in the future but it has no intrinsic value of itself.

Feb 27, 2017

A Gold Correction Will Be A Great Buying Opportunity

An interesting observation, gold stocks were down on Friday, they were also down on Thursday, in fact they had a sell-off at the very end of the day. I think the last 2 percent rise in the price of gold we had about a 4 percent drop in gold prices. Now, gold stocks rose early on and they did a very good job of forecasting this gold rally. So, the question is, are gold stocks now actively forecasting a sell-off, a profit taking or a correction in the gold rally? That is possible and if that is the case that is going to be a great buying opportunity because I do not think the correction will be very long lived or that deep and I do expect much higher prices later in the year. (SPDR Gold Trust ETF (GLD), Market Vectors Gold Miners ETF (GDX), Market Vectors Junior Gold Miners ETF (GDXJ))

Gold Is Still Trending Up

The price of gold was up again last week, got as high as 1,260 dollars an ounce. On my last podcast I said gold was building a lot of resistance at 1,240 and that when we took it out we would see a bit of a jump and that is exactly what happened.

Feb 24, 2017

Greenspan Expects Stagflation, Bullish On Gold Prices

Alan Greenspan is very bullish on the price of gold. He talked favorably about the price of gold. Yet the one thing that Greenspan still does not want to do is to accept any responsibilities. He does not want to accept the blame for all the bad things that he now thinks are coming. (SPDR Gold Trust ETF (GLD), Market Vectors Gold Miners ETF (GDX), Market Vectors Junior Gold Miners ETF (GDXJ))

Feb 22, 2017

The Stock Market Is Going Way Down In Gold Terms

A good way to measure the stock market is in terms of gold. Let's say right now the Dow jones Industrials Average (DJIA) is worth about sixteen ounces of gold. Let's say the stock market gets cut in half, them it is worth eight ounces of gold or the stock market stays the same and gold prices double from here, it's worth eight ounces of gold too. The stock market in terms of gold is going way down! I think it's going a lot lower than eight. (SPDR Gold Trust ETF (GLD), SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF (DIA))

Feb 20, 2017

U.S. Economy: We Have To Allow This Economy To Restructure

We need to let interest rates go up, we need to let the chips fall where they may. If we do that now after interest ratings having been so low for so long we are going t have a financial crisis worse than 2008. But at this point we all just have to suck it up and bear it. And if that means a lot of people losing money, banks failing, and a lot of people lose their jobs, that is what is has to happen! 

We have to clean the house. We have to allow this economy to restructure so that we can rebuild it the right way and not rebuild it based on government central planning but let the free markets rebuild it. This was what made America great in the first place.

Feb 17, 2017

Inflation Has Already Surpassed Yellen's Target

Year over year CPI (consumer Price Index) is now up 2.50%. That is the official number, obviously prices are going up a lot faster than that. But according to the government they are going up at 2.50%. If you take out food and energy and just look at the core, year over year changes 2.30%. 

Remember the Federal Reserve says their target is 2%. And when Yellen testified this week she said she was confident that we are going to hit it. Well, we are already surpassing it! (SPDR Gold Trust ETF (GLD), iShares Silver ETF (SLV), Market Vectors Gold Miners ETF (GDX), Market Vectors Junior Gold Miners ETF (GDXJ))

Feb 16, 2017

The Federal Reserve Knows Another Crisis Is Coming

The reason the Federal Reserve has acted so slowly in increasing interest rates is because they know another crisis is coming and they just hope they do not get blamed for it. (SPDR S&P 500 Index ETF (SPY), SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF (DIA), iShares Russell 2000 Index ETF (IWM))

Feb 15, 2017

The Largest Debtor Nation in the History of the World!

The accumulating effects of the annual current account deficits is that we are the largest debtor nation in the history of the world. We owe more money to other countries than all other debtor nations combined.

Feb 14, 2017

Markets: Gold Miners, Australian Dollar

The Market Vectors Junior Gold Miners ETF (GDXJ), an index of junior gold miners it is up 33 percent this year! And meanwhile the U.S. Dollar is starting to go down, it`s not down that much against the Euro but look at the Australian Dollar for example, it is up 6 percent so far this year against the U.S. Dollar. 

Feb 13, 2017

Traders Are Overlooking The Contractionist Impact Of Rising Rates

I think traders are overlooking the contractionist impact of rising interest rates. Not necessarily just the interest rate increases by the Federal Reserve but look at what is happening to the long end of the bond market since Trump was elected. Even though there was a big reaction in the stock market at the end of last year, so far in 2017, the Dow Jones Industrials Average (DJIA) is not making much in the way of gains. (SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF (DIA), SPDR S&P 500 Index ETF (SPY))

Feb 10, 2017

U.S. Stock Market or the U.S. Dollar: One Is Going To Crash!

The fact that Donald Trump is the President does not change it from an asset bubble to a bull market! 

It`s still a bubble and the air is going to come out one way or another. Either the U.S. stock market is going to crash or the U.S. Dollar is going to crash. But either way, the real value of stocks is coming way down and people should not own them. 

(SPDR S&P 500 Index ETF (SPY), iShares Russell 2000 Index ETF (IWM), SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF (DIA), Nasdaq 100 Index ETF (QQQ), Apple (AAPL), Facebook (FB), Tesla Motors (TSLA), Netflix (NFLX))

Feb 9, 2017

U.S. Stocks Are Very Expensive

The fact that the Dow Jones Industrials Average is at 20,000, that does not reflect a healthy economy, it reflects a bubble! U.S. stocks are very expensive. Candidate Trump has it right when he called it a big, fat, ugly bubble an it is bigger, fatter and uglier now! (SPDR S&P 500 Index ETF (SPY), SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF (DIA), iShares Russell 2000 Index ETF (IWM), Nasdaq 100 Index ETF (QQQ))

Markets: U.S. Dollar, Gold and the U.S. Stock Market

It was the weakest January for the U.S. Dollar in 30 years! Gold prices are rising, commodity prices are rising and for all the hype about Dow 20,000, the U.S. stock market is pretty much the worst performing stock market in the world so far in 2017. if you adjust for currencies. (SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF (DIA), Nasdaq 100 Index ETF (QQQ), SPDR S&P 500 Index ETF (SPY), iShares Russell 2000 Index ETF (IWM), SPDR Gold Trust ETF (GLD))

Feb 8, 2017

The Bullish Case For The Euro Currency

We know that the Bundesbank does not approve the easy money policies, the QE, the negative interest rates that Draghi and the ECB have forced upon them and I believe that rising German opposition as well as rising inflation both in Germany and throughout the European Union will ultimately force the ECB to abandon this monetary policy maybe even at the same time that the Federal Reserve is finally coming to terms or admitting that they are about to ease monetary policy again, they will be cutting interest rates and doing QE4.

Feb 7, 2017

Federal Reserve: Will They Raise in March? Probably Not!

The Federal Reserve has been saying that we will have three interest rate hikes in 2017. They have to get started if we are going to have three. People thought the Federal Reserve was going to say something to indicate that maybe it would be in March. They made no such comment. (SPDR Gold Trust ETF (GLD), SPDR S&P 500 Index ETF (SPY))

Feb 6, 2017

The U.S. Debt Bomb Is About To Explode

The U.S. debt bomb is going to explode. What the Federal Reserve has been doing, by keeping interest rates practically at zero has prevent the bomb from exploding. With interest rates at practically at zero we could afford to service the debt, repaying it is impossible! But at least we could service it when interest rates were at rock bottom. But that is already changing. Interest rates are going up, inflation is going up and creditors are going to demand a higher premium to hold our bonds. We are headed off the edge of a cliff! (iShares Barclays 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT), 10- year U.S. Treasuries)

Feb 3, 2017

Trump Desires a Weaker U.S. Dollar

It is almost like Trump is already adopting a weak U.S. Dollar policy because saying that the Euro currency is too weak is saying that the U.S. Dollar is too strong. If you want the Euro currency to go up then you want the U.S. Dollar to go down. If you wan the Japanese Yen to go up, you want the U.S. Dollar to go down. So, the President wants a weaker U.S. Dollar.

U.S. Dollar: The Worst January in 20 Years!

Everybody on Wall Street started the year long the U.S. Dollar. Well, I just read that this was the worst January for the U.S. Dollar in almost 20 years! And for all the fanfare and hype about Dow 20,000 - I think the Dow Jones Industrials Index (DJIA) was up just half of a percent in the month of January. (SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF (DIA), SPDR S&P 500 Index ETF (SPY), Nasdaq 100 Index ETF (QQQ), iShares Russell 2000 Index ETF (IWM))

Jan 31, 2017

The Debt Bomb is About to Explode in the U.S.

The debt bomb is going to explode in the United States. Artificially low interest rates helped keeping U.S. debt and interest payments contained but it cannot be contained for much longer because long term interest rates and inflation are rising and on such a scenario creditors will keep demanding higher premiums. (iShares Barclays 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT), ProShares UltraShort Lehman 20+ Year ETF (TBT), 10- year U.S. Treasuries, 30-year U.S. Government Bonds)

Jan 30, 2017

Forex: Commodity Currencies (AUD, CAD)

The Australian Dollar (AUD) has been trading even firmer than the Canadian Dollar (CAD). The Australian Dollar (AUD) bottomed out in January 2016, so commodities (Gold, Crude Oil) bottomed and commodity currencies also bottomed.

Jan 25, 2017

Trump: Short Term Fix Will Not Result

If we are really going to make America great again, if we really are going to fix what is broken, we have to go through a restructuring of the economy. That in the short term is going to be painful. On the long run it will produce good results. Trump is promising a quick fix, that things are going to get better just because we have elected him. Unfortunately that cannot happen. (SPDR S&P 500 Index ETF (SPY), iShares FTSE/Xinhua China 25 Index (ETF)(NYSEARCA:FXI))

Jan 23, 2017

The Stock Market is Very Vulnerable Here

I think to the extent that we get some of these protectionist type measure it is negative for the U.S. Dollar. It is not going to be a positive like some people think and the stock market and the bond market are very, very vulnerable here. (SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF (DIA), SPDR S&P 500 Index ETF (SPY), Nasdaq 100 Index ETF (QQQ), iShares Russell 2000 Index ETF (IWM))

Jan 20, 2017

A Bull Run For Gold

Both the Federal Reserve and President Donald Trump want a weak currency, a weak U.S. Dollar. That almost always means a bull run for gold (SPDR Gold Trust ETF (GLD)).

Jan 18, 2017

Markets: Gold, Silver and Gold Stocks

Gold is up 6 percent so far year-to-date, Silver is up better than 7 percent. Gold stocks (Market Vectors Gold Miners ETF (GDX)) are up 12 percent so far this year. That means that gold stocks are by far the top performing sector in sector. They were also the best performing sector in 2016. (SPDR Gold Trust ETF (GLD), iShares Silver ETF (SLV))

Jan 17, 2017

Currencies Outlook: U.S. Dollar (USD), Australian Dollar (AUD), Canadian Dollar (CAD)

If you take a look at some of the other currencies, the Canadian Dollar (CAD) is up 2.50 percent so far in 2017. The Australian Dollar (AUD) is up 4 percent so far in 2017. These are some pretty big moves early in the year.

Remember, everybody was bullish on the U.S. Dollar. That was the trade. It was so crowded, everybody was in it. Every strategist that I saw on financial news at the end of last year, early this year, said something like, "I am long the Dollar, short Canadian or short the Aussie, or short the Japanese Yen..."

Meanwhile all these currencies are going up and I think they will go a lot higher.

Jan 16, 2017

We Need to Get the Government Out of Healthcare

I am very skeptical about the repeal of Obamacare. Potentially they will repeal it in some distant point in the future but it will still be around.

We need to get the government out of healthcare and get the free market in, so that we can have quality care at affordable prices. (UnitedHealth Group Inc(NYSE:UNH), CIGNA Corporation(NYSE:CI), Aetna Inc(NYSE:AET), iShares NASDAQ Biotechnology Index (ETF)(NASDAQ:IBB), Pfizer Inc.(NYSE:PFE))

Jan 11, 2017

International Investing: The Countries I Am Most Optimistic About

The countries where I am most optimistic about are Singapore, Hong Knog, New Zealand, Switzerland and Norway. There are a number of countries that I think are in much better shape than the majority of countries out there. There is where we should be investing, as their currencies are going to appreciate, their markets are going to appreciate in real terms. (iShares MSCI Singapore Index Fund ETF (EWS), iShares MSCI Switzerland Index Fund ETF (EWL), iShares MSCI Hong Kong Index Fund ETF (EWH))

Jan 10, 2017

Bitcoin is Not Good as Money

Bitcoin prices just collapsed in a very short period of time. This is huge volatility, we are talking about the price of Bitcoin changing by more than 25 percent in less than a 24-hour period. That is a huge drop in price! That is massive volatility, which is the reason why I have been saying that Bitcoin is not good as money because its too volatile!

Jan 9, 2017

Stock Market: The More It Rallies, The Harder The Sell-Off Will Be

I think the more the stock market rallies before Trump is inaugurated the more it is going to fall after he is sworn in. (SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF (DIA), SPDR S&P 500 Index ETF (SPY), Nasdaq 100 Index ETF (QQQ), iShares Russell 2000 Index ETF (IWM))

Jan 5, 2017

Gold: A Very Strong Start To The Year

Gold up (SPDR Gold Trust ETF (GLD)), U.S. Dollar down, gold mining stocks (Market Vectors Gold Miners ETF (GDX)) up quite a bit, so far the year is not getting off to the type of start that all the experts were predicting. Again, I think that Wall Street experts are in for a big surprise based on how 2017 is going to shape out.

Jan 4, 2017

Stock Market: The Energy Rally Still Has Legs

I have a lot of energy related stocks in my portfolio. This energy rally (oil and energy related stocks), I think still has room to continue. On the contrary, the recent rally in financials is probably just a suckers rally. I am sticking stick with the energy related stocks, I am sticking with the miners. (Market Vectors Gold Miners ETF (GDX), Market Vectors Junior Gold Miners ETF (GDXJ), Energy Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLE))

Jan 3, 2017

Oil is Building a Lot of Support Above $50

That trend is going to continue. Oil is building a lot of support above 50 dollars a barrel. We are trading between 52 and 54 but I think we are heading higher in 2017. (United States Oil Fund LP ETF (USO), Energy Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLE))

Jan 2, 2017

The Dow 20,000 Party Will Have To Wait

The Dow Jones Industrials Average (DJIA) 20,000 party is going to have to wait till 2017, although I would not necessarily buy a ticket for January as he will see if the sell-off that started last week may resume in this first week of the New Year. (SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF (DIA), SPDR S&P 500 Index ETF (SPY), Nasdaq 100 Index ETF (QQQ))

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