The Russell 2000 Index Is Down 33% From Its High

The Russell 2000 Index, the purest stock play on the U.S. economy, is down 33 percent from its record high set in August of 2018, wiping out all the gains from June of 2016, 3 months before real Donald Trump was elected President. A Presidency that lives by the stock market dies by it as well!

Related trading instruments: iShares Russell 2000 Index ETF (IWM), SPDR S&P 500 Index ETF (SPY), Nasdaq 100 Index ETF (QQQ), SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF (DIA)

The Last Thing The Fed Should Do

The last thing the Federal Reserve should do now is rescue the stock market or the economy by cutting interest rates. It's rate cuts of the past that have left both the stock market and the economy so vulnerable in the present. It's much better to swallow some very bitter tasting medicine.

Related trading instruments: SPDR S&P 500 Index ETF (SPY), Nasdaq 100 Index ETF (QQQ), SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF (DIA)

Stocks: Sell-Off or Crash?

CNBC anchor Andrew Ross Sorkin of CNBC just said there is no other word to describe the recent market plunge other than "sell-off." Let me introduce a new word into Andrew's vocabulary, "crash."

Related trading instruments: SPDR S&P 500 Index ETF (SPY), Nasdaq 100 Index ETF (QQQ), SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF (DIA)

Stock Market: The Trump Put

It's not just the Powell Put. The stock market also benefits from the Trump Put. Anytime the market falls Trump simply tweets something positive about a pending trade deal with China. Since Trump can't play this card if an actual deal is made, his incentive is not to make one!

Related trading tickers: SPDR S&P 500 Index ETF (SPY), Nasdaq 100 Index ETF (QQQ), SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF (DIA)

So-Called Experts Are Still Optimistic About The US Economy

You have to go back to the summer of 2008 to see so many so-called experts so optimistic about the U.S. economy and so dismissive of overwhelming evidence that their optimism is unwarranted.

Related trading instruments: Sector Financial Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLF), SPDR S&P 500 Index ETF (SPY), Nasdaq 100 Index ETF (QQQ), SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF (DIA)

Federal Reserve: Shrinking The Balance Will Have Consequences

When Alan Greenspan took over the Federal Reserve in 1987, its balance sheet was at about $200 billion. A few years ago, it reached $4.5 trillion. Shrinking it will have consequences.

Related trading instruments: 

• SPDR S&P 500 Index ETF (SPY)
• SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF (DIA)
• iShares Russell 2000 Index ETF (IWM)
• Nasdaq 100 Index ETF (QQQ)

Stock Market: We Are In A Bear Market

We're in a bear market, it's just not officially acknowledged yet. You know, just like a lot of times you know they don't acknowledge the recession until after you have two quarters of negative GDP growth but clearly you're in the recession for a long time before it's officially admitted. 

There's one caveat if the Federal Reserve comes in and changes the game by taking away the rate hikes or launching QE 4 then we may never make it to a bear market. But if the Federal Reserve continues on its current path and maintains the current pretense then we are in a bear market and it's only a question of time before it is officially acknowledged.

Related trading instruments: 

• SPDR S&P 500 Index ETF (SPY)
• SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF (DIA)
• iShares Russell 2000 Index ETF (IWM)
• Nasdaq 100 Index ETF (QQQ)

Stock Market: More Down Quarters To Come

The market action that I've been observing really to me looks like a bear market. 

For the first quarter all the major stock market indexes were down. This was the first time in 10 quarters as we had 9 consecutive positive quarters (I think that's a record).

The US stock market finally broke that winning streak we'll see how investors who thought the US stocks can only go up may react to their first down quarter in ten. But it's not going to be the last down quarter, I think this could be the beginning of several more down quarters to come.

Related trading instruments: 

• iShares Russell 2000 Index ETF (IWM)
• SPDR S&P 500 Index ETF (SPY)
• Nasdaq 100 Index ETF (QQQ)
• SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF (DIA)

The Beginning Of A Much Bigger Downturn

In February's big decline the Dow Jones Industrials Index (DJIA) dropped better than a thousand points on the month and we'll see if this is the beginning of a much bigger downturn. In fact it could easily be the beginning of a bear market.

Related trading instruments: 

• SPDR S&P 500 Index ETF (SPY)
• SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF (DIA)
• Nasdaq 100 Index ETF (QQQ)
• iShares Russell 2000 Index ETF (IWM)

How Much Longer Powell Can Pretend All Is Well?

A soaring budget and trade deficits, rising interest rates, higher inflation, a falling U.S. Dollar, protectionist tariffs, a looming trade war, and a slowing economy all portend lower corporate earnings and a bear market in stocks. Let's see how much longer Powell can pretend all is well.

Related trading instruments: 

• SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF (DIA)
• Nasdaq 100 Index ETF (QQQ)
• SPDR S&P 500 Index ETF (SPY)
• United States Steel Corporation (X)

The Dow's Record Breaking Monthly Winning Streak Has Come To An End

The Dow Jones Industrials Index (DJIA) was down 380 points today. In fact this is the second consecutive 300 point drop we've had in the Dow you know the Dow now is down about 4% for the month of February which just came to an end today and that also means the Dow's record-breaking monthly winning streak has also come to an end remember the Dow has been up every month since Donald Trump was elected president including every single month in calendar year 2017 that is something that has never happened in the history of the stock market.

Related trading instruments: 

• SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF (DIA)
• iShares Russell 2000 Index ETF (IWM)
• SPDR S&P 500 Index ETF (SPY)
• Nasdaq 100 Index ETF (QQQ)

Interest Rates Are Going a Lot Higher

Related trading instruments: 

• iShares Barclays 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT)
• 10- year U.S. Treasuries, SPDR S&P 500 Index ETF (SPY)
• SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF (DIA)
• iShares Russell 2000 Index ETF (IWM)
• Nasdaq 100 Index ETF (QQQ)

Stock Market: The Dance That We're Doing

Why didn't the stock market follow the bond market down? Of course it's because the stock market didn't follow the bond market down that the bond market kept falling and if the stock market doesn't fall then the bond market will keep falling and interest rates will keep rising until it does (make the stock market go down), that is the dance that we're doing.

Related trading instruments: 

• SPDR S&P 500 Index ETF (SPY)
• Nasdaq 100 Index ETF (QQQ)
• SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF (DIA)

Stock Market: Volatility Signals a Trend Change

When you have a trend and then all of a sudden you see lots of volatility generally that's a sign that the trend is changing and the trend has been up obviously stocks have been trending up for years and they've been trending up with minimal volatility. When all of a sudden you see massive volatility does that mean the trend is likely to continue? No! It's more likely a sign that the trend has come to an end. (SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF (DIA), iShares Russell 2000 Index ETF (IWM), Nasdaq 100 Index ETF (QQQ), SPDR S&P 500 Index ETF (SPY))

This Just Shows How Quickly The Market Can Go Down

If you look at the five days from the high, in five trading days the Dow Jones futures lost about 13 percent of their value. In five days! Now that just shows you how quickly the market can go down, I mean, the next time it could lose even more even faster. (SPDR S&P 500 Index ETF (SPY), Nasdaq 100 Index ETF (QQQ), iShares Russell 2000 Index ETF (IWM), SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF (DIA))

Stock Market: It's a Major Decline

We didn't have a black Monday like 1987 as it wasn't a 20 percent decline but it was the biggest point decline in the history of the stock market by a large magnitude. We were down 1,175 points and we were down 1,600 points at the intraday low. So this is the biggest point decline ever but in percentage terms it is in the top 20 (I think it was like number 14 or something) but it is a major decline and we rarely see declines this big. (SPDR S&P 500 Index ETF (SPY), SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF (DIA), Nasdaq 100 Index ETF (QQQ))

Stock Market: This Brings Back Vivid Memories Of 2008

Listening to all the so-called experts on financial TV reassuring investors that there is nothing to worry about, and that the fundamentals are sound, brings back vivid memories of 2008, as that's exactly what the same experts were saying just before the financial crisis. (SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF (DIA), Nasdaq 100 Index ETF (QQQ), SPDR S&P 500 Index ETF (SPY))

Stock Market Correction: The Start of Something Much Bigger

A three percent correction is pretty normal except we haven't had one in a long time and the question is is this the start of something more ominous or is this just a small correction and you know what I think there's a lot of evidence that it is the start of something much bigger part of the evidence is that nobody is concerned nobody is worried there's maximum complacency. (SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF (DIA), SPDR S&P 500 Index ETF (SPY), Nasdaq 100 Index ETF (QQQ))

Stock Market: The Hidden Risks

In a recent article with Seeking Alpha, Peter Schiff highlights the hidden risks that might disrupt the stock market in th near future:

"The stock market is rising despite the fact that there are very, very negative factors that are building, that are hiding in plain sight, that everybody is ignoring.”

"Everybody thinks the economy is in great shape because they think the Fed solved the problem. No, they didn’t. They made the problem much worse! They made the problem that they created worse. But the people who think they solved it are the same people who didn’t understand it before. And they got blindsided in ’08 and they’re going to get blindsided again because they never learned from their mistakes.”

Related trading instruments: SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF (DIA), SPDR S&P 500 Index ETF (SPY), Nasdaq 100 Index ETF (QQQ)

Inflation Is Bullish For Gold

The stock market should be affected by higher interest rates but no, they don't care but they somehow think it's going to be bad for gold. But the reality is higher inflation is great for gold, that's why people buy gold as it's a hedge against inflation. So the more inflation the more demand there is for gold.

Related trading instruments: SPDR S&P 500 Index ETF (SPY), iShares Russell 2000 Index ETF (IWM), SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF (DIA), SPDR Gold Trust ETF (GLD)