Stock Market: Expensive, Complacency

The market has never been this expensive while at the same time so few people are worried that it might go down. (Select Sector Financial Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLF), Energy Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLE), SPDR S&P 500 Index ETF (SPY), SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF (DIA), iShares Russell 2000 Index ETF (IWM), Nasdaq 100 Index ETF (QQQ))

The Next Recession

Recessions have been happening for quite some time and you know the next one is long overdue and I do think that the enthusiasm surrounding the tax cuts and the gains in the market could well extend  the period between now and the next recession but I don't think it will extend it long enough for Trump to be reelected.

Bitcoin Is Going To Crash Down

I am sure that it is a bubble, in fact it's probably the biggest bubble I've ever seen in my career as an investor and I've seen quite a few bubbles and I'm familiar with this psychology that surrounds them.

And you know Bitcoin has all of the characteristics of a bubble, in fact it's not just Bitcoin it's the entire cryptocurrency space. I think it's a massive speculative bubble and maybe we've seen the top and maybe we haven't I don't know but I think when the top is in this thing is gonna come crashing down, it's not just gonna go down slowly. You know there's an expression that markets take the stairs up and the elevator down, well you know Bitcoin took a rocket ship up and it's gonna come down even faster.

2018 Outlook: Gold, Bitcoin

"If people earn more money because central banks create more money they use their additional incomes to bid up prices for everything so I think a lot of prices are gonna be rising not just the price of gold." 

"I do believe as more people perceive the threat of inflation and see the dangers of what the central banks have been doing I think the price of gold will rise faster than a lot of other prices as people embrace it as a hedge against inflation and as a store of value."

Bitcoin Bulls Are Going To Get Slaughtered

Bitcoin keeps going up, we are at in 17,000 today and look how big can the bubble get? I don't know. I mean I'm not that smart. I'm smart enough to know what is a bubble but I'm not smart enough to know where the peak is but there's an old saying, Bulls make money, Bears make money and pigs get slaughtered. And there are a lot of Bitcoin pigs I believe who are gonna get slaughtered so if you happen to own some Bitcoin and you bought them and you have some profits, sell.

Gold Will Rally In The New Year

In the last few years you've seen gold sell off at the end of the year and then rally pretty strong in the new year because what happens is towards the end of the year people get very optimistic about the future Oh things are gonna get better growth is gonna pick up the economy is gonna take off and so they get optimistic they buy stocks they buy the dollar a little bit they sell their gold and then the new year comes around and the hoped for rebound doesn't materialize and then they buy the gold back and the dollar sells off and and that's I think where we are.

Related trading instruments: SPDR Gold Trust ETF (GLD), Market Vectors Gold Miners ETF (GDX), Market Vectors Junior Gold Miners ETF (GDXJ)

The Tax Plan

I believe if this plan passes we are gonna have a tax code that is more gamable where more people are doing more things to rig the system or exploit the loopholes. Not that there's anything wrong with that I mean that's what every American is going to do righ, no American has a legal obligation to pay more taxes than what is owed and to the extent that you can rearrange your affairs such that you pay the lowest possible tax that's what everybody is going to do and that is why the projections that the Republicans are out there with that this is going to add just 1.5 trillion to the deficit over the next ten years are a bunch of nonsense. I'm sure that it will add more than twice as much more than three trillion to the deficit over the next 10 years.

Federal Reserve: 2 Years To Move The Rate From 0.00% to 1.375%

It's taken the Federal Reserve two years to move the rate from zero to 1.375%. This is an extraordinary amount of excess monetary stimulus to say that the Federal Reserve has been successful in normalizing rates is complete nonsense.

CNBC Becomes Crypto News BitCoin Network

This Bitcoin bubble is the most irrational of any of the bubbles I've seen. I think there is less of a legitimate case for Bitcoin than there was for any of the dot-com stocks that went to zero or buying subprime mortgages.

Wiping Out The Debt With Inflation

I think the problem we are going to be confronted with is going to be much worse than a financial crisis. It is going to be a US dollar crisis, and it is going to be a sovereign debt crisis where the bonds people are worried about are not some sub-prime mortgages,  it’s going to be the U.S. government that people are worried about and the solvency of the U.S. Treasuries.

If it’s a US dollar crisis and people are worried about the US dollar, the only thing worse than owning a dollar today is owning the promise of being paid in dollars in the future. 

I don’t think we have the courage to default and admit to our creditors that we don’t have the money and we can’t repay. I think we will create all the money that we need so we can pretend to repay, but what we end up doing is wiping out the debt with inflation.

Related trading instruments: SPDR Gold Trust ETF (GLD), iShares Silver ETF (SLV), iShares Barclays 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT)

Money: The Real Alternative Is Gold

People don't trust fiat currencies they don't trust a dollar euro yen they're looking for an alternative and believe me the real alternative is gold and more and more people are going to embrace it.

Related trading instruments: SPDR Gold Trust ETF (GLD), Market Vectors Gold Miners ETF (GDX), Market Vectors Junior Gold Miners ETF (GDXJ)

Silver Will Get To 40 At Some Point

Silver will get to 40 dollars an ounce at some point. (iShares Silver ETF (SLV), Hecla Mining (HL))

Another Reason Why Gold Prices Are Suppressed

A lot of the typical gold buyers who were worried about the economy when Barack Obama was President, they're not worried anymore. They think Donald Trump is gonna make America great again and they're wrong. He's not going to make America great again.

I hope America is great again at some point but it's not going to happen during the Trump presidency and people should be more worried because a lot of the problems that built up under Obama are getting worse under Trump.

Gold: People Don't Trust Fiat Currencies

People don't trust fiat currencies they don't trust a dollar euro yen they're looking for an alternative and believe me the real alternative is gold and more and more people are going to embrace it. (SPDR Gold Trust ETF (GLD), Market Vectors Gold Miners ETF (GDX), Market Vectors Junior Gold Miners ETF (GDXJ))

Real Estate: Prices Will Have To Go Down

Housing unit prices are gonna have to implode, prices are so high people can't afford them even with these ridiculously low interest rates. But in a higher interest rate environment where you know mortgage money is 8 to 10 percent, which was the average for many, many decades and you know that people had to put down payments, to I mean if we go back to the days where you need a 20 percent down payment, I mean imagine how low prices would have to fall for the average American to be able to come up with 20% down payments. (SPDR S&P Homebuilders (ETF) (XHB), KB Home (NYSE:KBH), Lennar Corporation (LEN), D.R. Horton (DHI))

Markets: Federal Reserve, Crude Oil

You look at the Fed minutes and it doesn't sound like a Fed that is getting ready to raise rates even though they're gonna do it. I mean they're talking about how much they're concerned and worried about the fact that inflation isn't high enough even though oil prices on Friday went above fifty nine dollars a barrel again, trading at almost a two-and-a-half year high.

Stock Market: The Trump Rally

Where Trump is is getting into trouble is by claiming that the stock market going up is no longer a bubble that now this is just a real bull market that reflects the improvement of the fundamentals since he's been elected.

That's not the case. This is simply more air into the same bubble and this bubble is going to burst and I think unfortunately now that Trump has branded it you know just like it was one of his buildings he's put the big Trump marker on it, when this thing pops it's he's gonna have to take the blame. (SPDR S&P 500 Index ETF (SPY), Nasdaq 100 Index ETF (QQQ), SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF (DIA), iShares Russell 2000 Index ETF (IWM))

Oil Prices Are Moving Higher

Oil prices got above $58 a barrel for the first time in over two years, a very strong oil market and if you look at the chart if we get above 60 dollars, I mean that's kind of a long -term moving average on a monthly chart, 60 to 75 was a key high from about two and a half years ago, if we take that out we can have a quick move up .

Remember the move down, oil fell from a hundred down to under 30 in about six months and then it's been recovering slowly ever since but if we can break through decisively that sixty to seventy-five we're gonna move up.

Gold Is Trying To Breakout

Gold (SPDR Gold Trust ETF (GLD)) still looks like it wants to break out somebody is obviously trying to stop that from happening or somebody's don't really know who these sellers are but I do think eventually whatever their agenda is the markets are going to overwhelm it.

There Is No Way Out, A Crisis Is Coming

There is no way off of this monetary policy. Once you take this much drugs you can never get off, not without massive withdrawal and so nobody politically wants to deal with that because if the Federal Reserve were to actually not come to the rescue next time the stock market wouldn't just go down 50 percent like it didn't in 2008-2009, it might go down 80 or 90 percent.

Banks would actually fail I mean the government would actually have to default on its debt but I don't think that is gonna happen because nobody in power wants to let that happen and so the US dollar is gonna be sacrificed. But ultimately in sacrificing the US dollar the damage that's going to be done to the economy and to the standard of living of the average American is going to be much greater than had we just bitten the bullet and dealt with the financial crisis.

How Much Debt Can The US Withstand?

We got 20 trillion in national debt, why can't we go to 35 trillion? Why can't we go to 40 trillion? 

Why can't we just continue to increase the national debt? 

It reminds me of the old adage about how many straws can you put on a on a camel's back? You don't know until you put that final straw that's one too many and then you break its back. 

So, can we go to 25 trillion? Maybe. But can we go to 30 trillion? We're not going to know. At some point we're gonna break the back of the camel with all this debt and then we're gonna find out how much debt we can pile on and it's not going to be pretty because then we're gonna have a crisis.

Dollar Crisis, Sovereign Debt Crisis

This is the third gigantic bubble that the Federal Reserve has inflated and when this one pops it's not going to be the third time's the charm. It's gonna be three strikes you're out because I think that this bubble is too big to pop. It's the mother of all bubbles and when it bursts there is not a bigger one that the Federal Reserve is going to be able to inflate to mask these problems meaning that we can't kick the can down the road anymore we're gone we're going to have to deal with these problems.

I think the problem that we're going to be confronted with is going to be much worse than a financial crisis, it is going to be a dollar crisis and it is going to be a sovereign debt crisis where the bonds that people are worried about are not some subprime mortgage that some guy borrowed money to buy a house that can't afford. It's going to be the US government that people are worried about and the the the solvency of the government and the Treasury bonds.

The Appeal of International Stocks

People who are in the US stock market are overlooking much better returns from much better valuation levels that are happening overseas. So, I think people should take advantage of the overpriced US stock market plus the overpriced US dollar and sell and move money abroad get into the international markets. (SPDR S&P 500 Index ETF (SPY), Nasdaq 100 Index ETF (QQQ), iShares MSCI Emerging Markets Index ETF (EEM))

Stock Market: The Valuations Here Are Extreme

The valuations here really are extreme, the complacency is also extreme. I mean investors are willing to pay very high prices and have very little worry that the stock market is going to go down.

People have very short memories, I mean we've had two major 50% declines in the stock market this century. Since 2000 we've had the market cut in half twice and it could easily happen again yet nobody seems concerned. 

Related trading instruments: SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF (DIA), SPDR S&P 500 Index ETF (SPY), Nasdaq 100 Index ETF (QQQ), iShares Russell 2000 Index ETF (IWM)

Thoughts On Powell As The New Fed Chairman

It's just more of the same but you know Powell embodies everything that candidate Trump criticized when he ran for office!

Instead of taking the opportunity to change the Fed he is simply reappointed or nominated somebody who is going to continue the very policies that he criticized when he was running for President and Powell is going to be just as political as Yellen except now the beneficiary is going to be Trump instead of Obama.

Video: "Trump Names Powell Fed Chairman"

RT Video: "Trump names Powell Fed Chairman"

Trump, Stock Market & Consumer Confidence

So we have the stock market at all time highs, we have consumer confidence high yet Donald Trump's popularity has never been lower! (SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF (DIA), SPDR S&P 500 Index ETF (SPY), Nasdaq 100 Index ETF (QQQ), iShares Russell 2000 Index ETF (IWM))

The Swiss National Bank Is A Big Investor In US Tech Stocks

The Swiss National Bank now has 88 billion dollars in US stocks alone. Their number one holding is Apple but if you look at their portfolio their top five holdings are Apple (AAPL) then Alphabet (which is Google), Microsoft (MSFT), Facebook (FB) and Amazon (AMZN). Those are the top five holdings of the Swiss National Bank and it also makes sense that those are some of the highest flying stocks in the US market because the Swiss National Bank just so you know they print Swiss francs for nothing, they create them out of thin air and then they go and they buy up US tech stocks.

There's only about seven and a half million people living in Switzerland including little babies. So they basically have more than ten thousand dollars of US stocks for every man, woman and child living in Switzerland. That means a family of four has got $40,000 worth of US stocks!

US Stock Market: Complacency, Overvaluation

I think if you look at the amount of complacency relative to the overvaluation stocks have really never been this expensive and people have never been this sure that they're not going to go down.

Related trading instruments: SPDR S&P 500 Index ETF (SPY), iShares Russell 2000 Index ETF (IWM), SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF (DIA), Nasdaq 100 Index ETF (QQQ)