The Manufacturing Recession Is Already Here

We got 52.6 on the Manufacturing PMI and that was the lowest number in 2 years. I have been talking about this for a long time on the podcast. The manufacturing recession is already here.

The mainstream will acknowledge this but they do not even think it matters. They think that manufacturing is so small a part of the economy that it does not really matter. Admitting that is such a small part of the economy is part of the problem. It cannot be a small part of the economy! The fact that it is a small part of the economy is a problem in and of itself.

A Bullish Case For Gold

Gold (SPDR Gold Trust ETF (GLD)) failed to rally in the wake of the terrorist attack so the shorts came back in. But everybody has piled short as they are all waiting for the Federal Reserve to hike rates. This is the most anticipated rate hike in the history of interest rate hikes and again one and done is not gonna cut it. The Federal Reserve is going to need to raise interest rates substantially to validate this move in the dollar but they can`t. They can`t validate it because any significant move up in interest rates would precipitate a financial crisis.

We Are Going To Be Back In Official Recession Or Close Enough Soon

Long before the Federal Reserve gets to 1.00% rates if they actually start in December, we are going to be back in official recession or close enough to it that the Federal Reserve is going to have to stimulate the economy again.

December Meeting: A Rate Hike If The Market Is Near Record Highs

If the market is near record highs in the day before the meeting (in December) and it looks like as if everybody is OK with a tiny interest rate hike, they might do it.

Tickers: SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF (DIA), SPDR S&P 500 Index ETF (SPY), Nasdaq 100 Index ETF (QQQ)

Industrial Production: More Signs Of A Recession

Industrial Production, this is the 9th monthly drop in the last 10 months. This is the weakest this series has been since January 2010. How many signs of a recession does the Federal Reserve need?

The Safest Thing For The Federal Reserve To Do

The safest thing for the Federal reserve to do given the game that they are playing is to not raise interest rates in December and keep pretending that they are going to. Because so far, so good. It is working like a charm!