Nov 29, 2017

Real Estate: Prices Will Have To Go Down

Housing unit prices are gonna have to implode, prices are so high people can't afford them even with these ridiculously low interest rates. But in a higher interest rate environment where you know mortgage money is 8 to 10 percent, which was the average for many, many decades and you know that people had to put down payments, to I mean if we go back to the days where you need a 20 percent down payment, I mean imagine how low prices would have to fall for the average American to be able to come up with 20% down payments. (SPDR S&P Homebuilders (ETF) (XHB), KB Home (NYSE:KBH), Lennar Corporation (LEN), D.R. Horton (DHI))

Nov 28, 2017

Markets: Federal Reserve, Crude Oil

You look at the Fed minutes and it doesn't sound like a Fed that is getting ready to raise rates even though they're gonna do it. I mean they're talking about how much they're concerned and worried about the fact that inflation isn't high enough even though oil prices on Friday went above fifty nine dollars a barrel again, trading at almost a two-and-a-half year high.

Nov 27, 2017

Stock Market: The Trump Rally

Where Trump is is getting into trouble is by claiming that the stock market going up is no longer a bubble that now this is just a real bull market that reflects the improvement of the fundamentals since he's been elected.

That's not the case. This is simply more air into the same bubble and this bubble is going to burst and I think unfortunately now that Trump has branded it you know just like it was one of his buildings he's put the big Trump marker on it, when this thing pops it's he's gonna have to take the blame. (SPDR S&P 500 Index ETF (SPY), Nasdaq 100 Index ETF (QQQ), SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF (DIA), iShares Russell 2000 Index ETF (IWM))

Nov 24, 2017

Oil Prices Are Moving Higher

Oil prices got above $58 a barrel for the first time in over two years, a very strong oil market and if you look at the chart if we get above 60 dollars, I mean that's kind of a long -term moving average on a monthly chart, 60 to 75 was a key high from about two and a half years ago, if we take that out we can have a quick move up .

Remember the move down, oil fell from a hundred down to under 30 in about six months and then it's been recovering slowly ever since but if we can break through decisively that sixty to seventy-five we're gonna move up.

Gold Is Trying To Breakout

Gold (SPDR Gold Trust ETF (GLD)) still looks like it wants to break out somebody is obviously trying to stop that from happening or somebody's don't really know who these sellers are but I do think eventually whatever their agenda is the markets are going to overwhelm it.

Nov 22, 2017

There Is No Way Out, A Crisis Is Coming

There is no way off of this monetary policy. Once you take this much drugs you can never get off, not without massive withdrawal and so nobody politically wants to deal with that because if the Federal Reserve were to actually not come to the rescue next time the stock market wouldn't just go down 50 percent like it didn't in 2008-2009, it might go down 80 or 90 percent.

Banks would actually fail I mean the government would actually have to default on its debt but I don't think that is gonna happen because nobody in power wants to let that happen and so the US dollar is gonna be sacrificed. But ultimately in sacrificing the US dollar the damage that's going to be done to the economy and to the standard of living of the average American is going to be much greater than had we just bitten the bullet and dealt with the financial crisis.

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