Recessions do not start with layoffs. First the economy turns down and then companies layoff. Companies do not just start laying off people for no reason. Employees react to the recession. The economy turns down, sales turn down, and then businesses start to lay off. Then these layoffs make the existing recession even worse.
You can`t just look at the unemployment numbers and make monetary policy from that as if that is the data that really counts. The Federal Reserve wants to make economic policy looking into the rearview mirror. They are about to run into a brick wall!
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