Dec 30, 2020

Bitcoin: I'm The Voice Of Reason In The Insanity

Many accuse me of tweeting about Bitcoin to get attention. If attention was my goal, I would pretend to jump on the Bitcoin bandwagon and be like all those high-profile Bitcoin promoters who tweet about Bitcoin far more than I do. I'm just the voice of reason in the insanity.

The Main Reason Investors Are So Exuberant

Investors are widely enthusiastic about every asset class except precious metals mining stocks. The irony is that the main reason investors are so exuberant is inflation. It's the reckless monetary policy of central banks that's driving investors out of cash and into risk assets.

Bitcoin: Not A Threat To Central Banks

Bitcoin promoters believe that Bitcoin is an actual threat to central banks and the fiat monetary system. Yet despite this belief they also believe that the U.S. government, which has the most to lose if Bitcoin
 succeeds, will take no action to protect itself from this threat.

The Coming U.S. Dollar Collapse

The coming U.S. Dollar collapse will likely result in China surpassing the U.S to become the world's largest economy before the end of the next presidential term. As America's economic dominance comes to an end, so too will the dollar's status as the dominant reserve currency.

Dec 22, 2020

Gold Is An Inflation Hedge

Gold is an inflation hedge because it's also a commodity. When inflation reduces the purchasing power of fiat currencies, it takes more units of the inflated currency to buy a given commodity. Since gold is also a commodity, it maintains its value relative to other commodities.

Since gold retains one hundred percent of its properties over time, and is easy to store, it's an ideal asset for consumers to hold during periods of high inflation. While more units of currency are need to buy commodities, the same quantity of gold can still be exchanged for other commodities.

Dec 9, 2020

Why Bond Yields Are So Low

Low bond yields have lulled many investors into a false sense of confidence that inflation is't a rising threat. But yields are only this low because of market manipulation by the Federal Reserve, which ironically intervenes in the bond market by creating even more inflation to buy bonds.

Dec 6, 2020

The Reason Why Gold Stocks Aren't Rising Yet

Inflationary pressures are building and investors are bidding up prices of inflation sensitive stocks. But they're not buying gold stocks yet as investors still expect the Federal Reserve to fight inflation by raising interest rates. But the Fed will surrender to inflation without a fight.

Bitcoin, Gold and Gold Mining Stocks

 Some have postulated that investors are selling gold and buying Bitcoin. Since they have nothing in common, I doubt that's happening. But some speculators may be selling gold stocks and buying GBTC, with gold stocks falling as gold rises, and GBTC trading up to a 25% premium.

Unlike Bitcoin and gold, GBTC and gold ming stocks do have something in common. GBTC is a way to speculate on the future price of Bitcoin, and gold stocks are a way to speculate on the future price of gold. The smarter trade is to drop GBTC and pick up some gold mining stocks.

Dec 4, 2020

Inflationary Pressures Are Building

Inflationary pressures are building and investors are bidding up prices of inflation sensitive stocks. But they're not buying gold stocks yet as investors still expect the Federal Reserve to fight inflation by raising interest rates. But the Federal Reserve will surrender to inflation without a fight.

Fighting Inflation With Inflation

It's amazing that markets have calmly accepted the widely-held belief that the Federal Reserve will respond to rising inflation expectations by printing even more money to buy bonds to keep yields from rising. Fighting inflation with inflation guarantees inflation wins and the dollar loses.

Bitcoin: A Massive Double Top?

Bitcoin bulls are celebrating because after 3 years Bitcoin finally managed to eke out a new high. But what makes them so sure that this marginal new high doesn't constitute a massive double top? Perhaps they should put away the champagne until an actual breakout is confirmed.

Bond Investors Are Worried About Stagflation

A weaker than expected November jobs report is sending Treasury yields higher, not lower. This means bond investors are worried about stagflation. The weaker the economy gets, the more inflation the Federal Reserve creates to stimulate it and to buy the excess Treasuries investors are dumping.

Bitcoin's Meteoric Rise

Bitcoin bulls argue that Bitcoin's meteoric rise means that major institutions that once shunned Bitcoin now have no choice but to hold their noses and buy it. Not only does Bitcoin's past performance not guarantee its future success, it more likely assures its future failure.

Dec 3, 2020

2020 Cambridge Gold Summit


Peter Schiff at the 2020 Cambridge Gold Summit.

In 5 years time, the difference between having Biden or Trump as president is only marginally different. 
We are heading over a cliff no matter who is driving the bus - the difference may be how long it takes to get there. 

Most of the funding for the increase in government spending will be printed by the Fed. The Fed will monetize this government debt leading to more inflation and a weaker dollar. Quantitative easing (QE) has returned with a vengeance. Peter believes QE is a never-ending process. 

Economic Recoveries Are Not Created By Central Government Planning

According to Joe Biden the economic team he is putting together will create a strong economic recovery. Recoveries are not created by central government planning. Biden and his team will stifle any recovery that hard working Americans may have otherwise created if left alone.

2021 May Be The Worst Year Ever For The U.S. Dollar

The U.S. dollar is now trading at its lowest level against the Swiss Franc (CHF) since January of 2015. This is a harbinger of things to come. The Swiss Franc is leading the way, but other currencies will soon follow. 2021 may be the worst year ever for the U.S. dollar, at least until 2022.

The euro is closing in on 1.21 verses the dollar, and the Dollar Index is close to breaking below 91, its lowest level since April of 2018, just 3% above a six-year low.

Nov 30, 2020

Bitcoin: A New Kind Of Bubble?

Will the Bitcoin bubble be the first in history where the little guys get in early and sophisticated investors arrive late to the party?

Roubini: Bitcoin Has No Role In Portfolios

"Bitcoin has no role in institutional or retail investors portfolios. It is not a currency: not an unit of account, not a scalable means of payment & is a highly volatile store of value. It is heavily manipulated."

-- Nouriel Roubini, economist

The Bitcoin Mania On CNBC

The reason it's so easy for Bitcoin pumpers to fool CNBC anchors into buying into the Bitcoin mania is that their understanding of investments, fiat money, gold, and economics is so limited. CNBC anchors are entertainers. At least sports anchors know something about sports.

Bitcoin Is Not Taking Any Market Share From Gold

Bitcoin is not taking any market share away from gold. 

That hype is just part of the pump so the whales can dump. 

The only markets where Bitcoin is taking share are for lottery tickets, sports betting, casino gaming, penny-stocks, and some overpriced large cap momentum stocks.

Nov 23, 2020

Bitcoin: When The Speculative Fever Dies Down

Since PayPal customers buying Bitcoin in anticipation of using it to fund future purchases must sell Bitcoin to buy an actual currency to transact with merchants, today's buyers are tomorrows sellers. If speculative fever dies down, who will take the other side of those trades?

PayPal's foray into Bitcoin is a gimmick designed to provide a short-term boost to Bitcoin's price. If PayPal really wanted to offer its customers an alternative and reliable long-term store of value, it could have allowed them to buy gold and store it to fund future purchases.

Nov 2, 2020

A Biden Victory Is Not Good For The Stock Market

🗣  "(...) a Biden victory is not good for the stock market. It means much higher taxes and that is not going to be offset by the Federal Reserve.”

The U.S. stock market just had its worst week since March. In fact, if you look at just the second half of October, this is the biggest decline we've seen in the second half of October since 1987 and that was the year of the October 87 stock market crash!

Oct 30, 2020

This Time Stocks And Bonds May Crash Together

When the stock market crashed in Oct. of 1987, a sharp rise in bond prices not only cushioned the blow for diversified portfolios, but lower interest rates supported higher stock market valuations. This time stocks and bonds may crash together, leaving investors with no relief.

Oct 29, 2020

Bitcoin, Election & Stimulus

Bitcoin: The Biggest Bubble

If you measure the size of asset bubbles based on the level of conviction buyers have in their trade, the Bitcoin bubble is the biggest I've seen. Bitcoin hodlers are more confident they're right and sure they can't lose than were dotcom or house buyers during those bubbles.

Is a contested election good for the stock market?

On CNBC Fundstrat said a contested election is good news for the stock market because it will cause the Federal Reserve to backstop losses with more QE. Maybe if COVID starts turning people into Zombies we can all stay home and get rich, as the Federal Reserve money printing sends stock prices soaring.

The Economic Dependence On Stimulus

It's crazy to blame the problems in the economy or the stock market on a lack of stimulus. The Federal Reserve is already suppling constant monetary stimulus and the Federal government is providing huge fiscal stimulus. The problem is that the stimulus addicts now need an even larger dose.

Oct 27, 2020

Stock Market: All Bubbles Eventually Find A Pin

The Peter Schiff Show, Episode 622: All Bubbles Eventually Find a Pin

Watch and listen on Youtube:

Highlights from this podcast episode:

  • Stock markets tumble on renewed fears.Blue wave may not crest as once was expected.
  • More stimulus comes with bigger government.
  • Trump is the Republican Jimmy Carter.
  • Trump’s legacy will be his successful Supreme Court nominees.
  • The most important thing this election is to prevent Democrats from taking control of the Senate.

Oct 26, 2020

Elections: Biden Will Create A Weaker Economy

Bad news on the presidential election is perceived as good news for the stock market. Despite knowing a
Joe Biden win means lower corporate earnings and higher taxes, investors think the weaker economy Biden will create means even larger doses of fiscal and monetary stimulus.

Oct 12, 2020

Goldman Sachs Bets Against The U.S. Dollar

On CNBC: Goldman Sachs bets against the dollar on ‘blue wave’ prospects and vaccine outlook

Goldman is still too positive on the dollar, and doesn't understand that a delay in a covid vaccine is also bearish for the dollar. Such a delay will lead to an even weaker U.S. economy, larger budget and trade deficits, and even more money printing.

More Stimulus Only Weakens The Economy Further

The misguided goal of the "stimulus" is to get consumers to spend more. But excess past consumption is why the economy is so weak now. We must reduce consumption to free up resources to increase capital investment and production. More spending only weakens the economy further.

Very appropriate that Larry Kudlow was wearing a mask when he claimed the V-shaped recover was going strong, but that the economy needed an additional $1.8 trillion in government "stimulus." The economy can't be simultaneously strong and also in need of massive government support.
Much darker days for the U.S. dollar lie ahead. It's going way down and taking the entire American economy down with it.

Oct 8, 2020

Powell Doesn't Understand Economics

Powell doesn't understand economics. Low interest rates are only good for the economy if they naturally result from high savings and low debt. If they result from Federal Reserve manipulation, they are extremely harmful. Like any government price control, it results in adverse imbalances.

The Fed's misguided monetary policy will create the condition where any cure for an inflation rate that greatly exceeds its 2% target will be fatal to the economy. If the inflation disease doesn't kill the economy, the cure will. The question is, which poison will the Fed pick?

Oct 5, 2020

The Wrong Road To Economic Recovery

The economy doesn't need more consumption, it needs more production. Productive employment will stimulate the economy. Printing money and distributing it to non-productive people will not. It will only result in larger trade deficits, a weaker dollar, and higher consumer prices.

Sep 23, 2020

The Reasons Behind The Gold Sell-Off

Gold is selling off because traders now believe the Federal Reserve will not be as easy as once expected. While Fed policy is more likely to be much easier than expected, if traders are correct this development would be far more bearish for the stock market than it is for the gold market.

The lack of conviction gold stock investors have in the trade really is amazing. Despite the most positive fundamentals ever for gold, fear is far more pervasive than greed. Imagine what the market will look like when larger gold stock investors actually turn bullish on gold. 

Related trading instruments: SPDR Gold Trust ETF (GLD),Market Vectors Gold Miners ETF (GDX)

Sep 22, 2020

Buying The Gold Dips

Today's stock market rout was likely triggered by disappointment that the Federal Reserve was not dovish enough. The Federal Reserve may not be dovish enough to support a stock market bubble, but it's more than dovish enough to support a much higher gold price. Buy the dip!

Sep 21, 2020

Supreme Court: The Last Firewall Against Socialism!

The reason Democrats are so worried about a Trump Supreme Court pick is that their entire agenda is unconstitutional. Even if their radical policies are enacted into law a just Supreme Court can strike them down. It's the last remaining firewall to protect America from socialism.

Sep 15, 2020

It's Never The Time To Worry About The Deficits

On CNBC, Steve Mnuchin said that given a Covid weakened economy now is not the time to worry about deficits. But before Covid when the economy was supposedly booming, he was not worried about the deficits either.

In other words, it's never the time to worry about the deficits.

Sep 11, 2020

Stock Market Correction

Those hoping that a normal stock market correction will create a buying opportunity don't understand the market. A normal correction is much too small to create any real value in stocks. The only opportunity is reckless Fed policy making over-priced stocks even more expensive.

Greenspan Is Worried About Inflation

Alan Greenspan told  CNBC his primary economic concern is inflation. That's in sharp contrast to the view of the current Fed Chairman. Powell is worried inflation is too low while Greenspan is worried it's too high. If Greenspan is correct Powell's policy will end in disaster.

Sep 8, 2020

The Biggest Bubble Ever!

"On Thursday the biggest bubble ever may have popped without a pin!"

More QE will Only Weaken The economy

Chicago Federal Reserve President Charles Evans claims more QE is on the way to help the economy. The problem is the only things QE has helped prop up are asset prices, excessive debt, consumption, and government spending. 

More QE will weaken the economy further and exacerbate the collapse!

We Are Losing The War On Trade

The U.S. trade deficit "unexpectedly" surged 18.9 percent in July to $63.6B from an upwardly revised $53.5B in June. This is the widest trade deficit since 2008, so its larger than any monthly trade deficit under Obama. Donald Trump promised to win on trade. We're losing big-league.

Aug 26, 2020

Crude Oil Prices Are Going A Lot Higher

"They're getting rid of an energy stock Exxon Mobil (XOM)... Now that leaves Chevron (CVX) as the only oil company in the DJIA. Personally, I take that is bullish sign for energy stocks. I think people are under invested in energy. People really have no idea how much higher oil prices are headed. I think they're headed ultimately a lot higher and so I think that this is a good contrarian indicator."

Jul 27, 2020

Bearish Scenario For Stocks

I wonder how long it will take equity investors to realize that a collapsing dollar and soaring Gold price are bearish for stocks, as it will force the Federal Reserve to dump bonds, forcing interest rates to surge, the Federal Government to slash spending, and corporate earning to plunge.

Related trading instruments: SPDR S&P 500 Index ETF (SPY), SPDR Gold Trust ETF (GLD)

Why Traders Are Buying Stocks

CNBC's Jim Cramer is wrong about why investors are buying stocks. They aren't buying because they expect a COVID cure, but because they expect the Fed to keep printing money. They just don't understand how bad the consequences will be. If they did they'd be buying Gold instead.

Related trading instruments: Market Vectors Gold Miners ETF (GDX), Market Vectors Junior Gold Miners ETF (GDXJ), SPDR Gold Trust ETF (GLD)

Jul 20, 2020

The Federal Reserve Is Creating Dollars To Buy Bonds

The only way the Federal Reserve can suppress interest rates is by creating dollars to buy bonds. The more dollars it creates the more value the dollar loses, and the faster consumer prices rise. That puts upward pressure on rates so the Federal Reserve must create even more dollars to keep rates low.

Buy Your Gold Before Too Many Figure It Out

It looks like the Fed's 2 percent inflation target, which started out as a ceiling, is about to officially become a floor. The irony is that the actual inflation rate will be so far above 2 percent that we may never step foot on that floor again. Buy your gold before too many figure this out.

The Next Crisis Will Be A Dollar Crisis

The U.S. dollar's decline is welcomed as good news. Many were concerned that a strengthening dollar risked domestic deflation, hurt U.S. exports, lowered corporate earnings, and threatened emerging markets. Cheers will soon turn to tears as a dollar crash becomes the next crisis.

Jun 26, 2020

How Will Stocks Fare Under Biden?

If you think U.S. stocks can do well under Biden as they did well under Obama, think again. When Obama took office stocks were ending a decade long bear market, with the NASDAQ down 70 percent. It's since soared 7-fold. The economy is far worse now and the Federal Reserve can't blow another bubble.

Jun 19, 2020

The Role Of A Central Bank

We don't want a Central Bank that helps the Federal Government go deeper into debt. We want a central bank that forces Congress to cut spending or suffer the adverse consequences of rising interest rates and recession if it fails to do so.

An easy way to tell how bad a job Powell is doing as Fed Chair is that every member of Congress is praises him and thanking him for his help. We need a Fed Chair with the courage to do what's right for the country even if it's unpopular with Congress and the public at the time.

May 29, 2020

Bitcoin, Gold and Inflation

While Goldman Sachs is correct to warn its clients to avoid Bitcoin, its assessment of the U.S. economy, the U.S. Dollar and inflation is wrong. But once they finally figure out what should already be obvious, they will advise their clients to buy gold, just at much higher prices.

May 28, 2020

U.S. Dollar: The Reason Why Goldman Sachs Is Bullish

Maybe the real reason Goldman Sachs is so bullish on the dollar is that as a primary dealer of U.S. Treasuries, they have a lot of dollars to sell. If Goldman's clients realized the dollar's fate, they wouldn't buy any Treasuries. Whether default or inflation, loss is inevitable.

May 26, 2020

Inflation Is Bullish For Gold

Investors are selling gold and gold mining stocks because a rising Dow Jones means risk is on, so safe havens are reflexively sold. But the Dow Jones Industrials Average is only up because the Federal Reserve is creating inflation to prop it up. This is ultimately far more bullish for gold than it is for the Dow.

May 20, 2020

The Rise Of Gold

The relentless rise in the price of gold will call into question the viability of the U.S. dollar and its ability to continue to as the world's reserve currency. Given the lack of yield, if the dollar keeps losing value relative to gold, it will lose its reserve status to gold.

Does Powell Watch The Price Of Gold?

Someone should also ask Powell if he watches the price of gold, and if there is a price that would be high enough to concern him that Fed monetary policy is too loose, and that a dollar crisis might result from a failure to raise rates sharply and sell down the balance sheet?

The Risk Of Inflation

The main reason the Federal Reserve doesn't want to acknowledge the risk of inflation is that it's not prepared to do anything to put out the fire once it really gets started. So, it plays down the risk as long as it can, knowing that ultimately the inflation fire will burn the economy down.

Many People Have Over-Reacted To The Actual Health Threat

The crazy thing is that while so many people have over-reacted to the actual health threat posed by Covid-19, they have under-reacted to the grave financial and economic threats posed by the increase in government spending, borrowing, and money printing in reaction to Covid-19!

Apr 30, 2020

The U.S. Needs More Savings

Powell was asked what the Federal Reserve can do to make the economy more resilient to these type of shocks. The question is ironic as its the Fed's fault the economy is so vulnerable to these shocks in the first place. What's needed is more savings, which requires higher interest rates!

Apr 24, 2020

Two Wrongs Do Not Make A Right

Unfortunately, there is now a growing consensus that since we have abandoned capitalism during bad times, we must also abandon it during good times. If we socialize the losses, we must also socialize the profits. While this is logically consistent, two wrongs don't make a right.

How Long Before A Currency Crisis?

The national debt now exceeds 24.6 trillion dollars. It was just two weeks ago that it hit 24 trillion dollars. 

We are adding $1 trillion per month to the national debt. That was the size of the entire national debt as late as Oct. 1981. 

How much longer can this pace continue without a crisis?

Apr 23, 2020

Gold Stocks Are The Perfect Hedge

Gold stocks are the perfect hedge few portfolio managers own, as they will rise regardless of which direction stocks move. If stocks rise due to Federal Reserve money printing, gold stocks will rise more. If stocks fall due to a weak economy and falling earnings, gold stocks will also rise.

Clearly, everything that is happening right now in the economy, with central banks, is extremely bullish for gold. There is no question about it.

Read the complete article here: Peter Schiff: Gold Is the No-Brainer Investment

Apr 20, 2020

Market Update: Stock Market, Federal Reserve and Socialism

Why The Stock Market Is Rallying

Trump repeated that pre-Coronavirus the U.S. had the strongest economy in world history, and the stock market rally proves it's still strong and that he's doing a great job. The economy was weak before the virus and the market is rising because the Federal Reserve is doing a horrible job.

The Misery Of A Socialist Decade

When Nixon took the U.S. off the gold standard in 1971, he reluctantly proclaimed "I am now a Keynesian in economics," ushering in a decade of rising inflation, unemployment, and interest rates. We have now moved beyond Keynes. The misery of a socialist decade will be far worse.

Federal Reserve: 3.5 months of QE3 in 1 week

It took the Federal Reserve a bit longer to finish the calculations, but its balance sheet rose by $284.7 billion last week. That's another 3.5 months of QE3 in 1 week. The Fed's balance sheet now stands at $6.368 trillion. But it won't stand there for long as it marches toward $10 trillion!

Some Perspective On Initial Claims

A total of 22.034 million initial jobless claims have been filed over the past 4 weeks. That's 59.36% of the Great Recession's entire 18-month total of 37.118 million.

Apr 15, 2020

U.S. Economy: Breaking Records

Everyone expects bad new, just not this bad. Industrial production dropped 5.4 percent in March, exceeding expectations for a 4.2 percent decline. It was the biggest fall since January of 1946, after World War II ended and we stopped making weapons, and the 5.9 percent year-on-year (YOY) drop is the biggest since November 2009.

Stock Market: The Real Nominal Bottom

Does anyone really expect this bear market to end with Netflix (NFLX) and Amazon (AMZN) making new record highs? It seems to me that a real nominal bottom won't be made until these leaders are also shot!

Apr 14, 2020

Gold Is One Of The Best Bargains One Can Buy

If you think the price of gold is expensive now that its above $1,700 wait another week and see how expensive it is. In relation to the amount of money the Federal Reserve has already printed, and the amount it's about to print, gold at today's price is one of the best bargains one can buy.

Related trading instruments: SPDR Gold Trust ETF (GLD), Market Vectors Gold Miners ETF (GDX), Market Vectors Junior Gold Miners ETF (GDXJ)

All The Government Is Doing Is Printing Money

Nobody should be getting a check from the government because the government doesn't have any money. All the government is doing is printing money and they're destroying the value of everybody's savings.

Related trading instruments: SPDR Gold Trust ETF (GLD)

Earnings, JP Morgan Chase & Credit Cards

While Jamie Dimon, CEO of JPMorgan Chase, expressed concern that many bank customers will have trouble paying their credit card bills, he expressed optimism about those customers now earning more in unemployment benefits that they earned working, paying on time and spending more.

Apr 13, 2020

Housing Prices: Look Out Below!

JP Morgan Chase, the nation's largest lender, announced that effective Tuesday homebuyers will need FICO scores of 700 and 20 percent down payments to qualify for a mortgage. Housing prices will have to crash so most buyers, especially first time buyers, can afford to put down 20 percent. Look out below!

Apr 10, 2020

A Few Thoughts On The Current Crisis

The national debt just passed $24 trillion, up $4 trillion since Donald Trump took office. He will add more debt in 4 years than Bush did in 8. If reelected he will add more debt in 8 years than Bush & Obama did in 16. Instead of draining the swamp, he is draining the nation.

What will the Federal Reserve do if inflation picks up?

Someone needs to ask Powell what the Fed’s response will be if inflation really heats up? Will the Fed do nothing and let inflation get much worse? Or will it jack interest rates way up and sell bonds to shirk the money supply? Is the Fed prepared to do this during a recession?

The problem with student loan forgiveness

The biggest problem with student loan forgiveness is the moral hazard for both students and colleges. Since loans don't have to be repaid, students won't care how much they borrow. Colleges will exploit this by raising tuition even fasting, sending the cost to taxpayers soaring.

Apr 9, 2020

This Rally Is All About The Fed!

U.S. stock market futures are rallying off the much larger than expected jump in weekly unemployment claims. This clearly shows that investors know where their bread is buttered. This rally is all about the Federal Reserve, and the worse the economy gets, the more money the Fed will print.

Apr 2, 2020

China Will Buy Oil, Not U.S. Treasuries

It looks like the Chinese are getting smarter, and will be buying oil instead of U.S. Treasuries. This is just the beginning, as soon the entire world will be buying real stuff instead of Treasuries. That means the Federal Reserve will buy more Treasuries as Americans buy a lot less stuff.

U.S. Economy: There Is No Way To Go Back To Where We Were

It wasn't fine before the crisis. We didn't have a solid economy. We had a bubble. That's the problem. And the bubble has been pricked. There is no way to go back to where we were. It's like trying to unscramble an egg. It can't be done.

Record Initial Claims

Another 6.648 million Americans filed for unemployment last week, shattering the record set the prior week. With generous new benefits for losing one's jobs, and powerful incentive (likely to be extended) to remain unemployed, don't expect people to return to work any time soon.

Mar 31, 2020

Gold Isn't A Fear Trade

The media coverage, what little there is, of why people are buying gold, is wrong. Gold isn't a fear trade, or a hedge against the stock market. It's the best way for savers to protect their purchasing power when central banks are intent on destroying it by printing paper money. 

Thoughts On Trump's Infrastructure Spending Plans

President Trump thinks it's the perfect time for the government to borrow trillions more to improve our infrastructure. That's like a guy who just lost his job deciding it's the perfect time to take out a second mortgage to put in the swimming pool he's always wanted.

You Are Paying For The Bailouts!

If you don't know who is paying for the massive stimulus bill and bailouts, it's you. There's no free lunch. Everyone who saves or earns dollars will have their purchasing power stolen to fund an unprecedented increase in government spending. If you don't want to pay, buy gold.

Mar 26, 2020

The US Dollar Is Entering a Tailspin

Last week as the US dollar spiked many currency speculators were suckered into the trade. They are now underwater hoping for a rally. Soon they will stop hoping, and bailout of the biggest currency head fake ever. The US dollar is entering a tailspin from which recovery is impossible.

Topics: currency trading, forex, US Dollar;

Mar 25, 2020

Gold Is The Safe Haven

Treasury bonds are not a safe haven. The Federal Reserve will own all the Treasury bonds, as well as most other U.S. dollar denominated debt. The problem is that the tens of trillions of dollars the Fed will print to buy all those bonds will be practically worthless. Gold is the safe haven.

Real bond yields will plunge as inflation soars. Normally rising inflation would push up nominal yields to compensate buyers for the erosion of their purchasing power. But since the Federal Reserve is buying to keep nominal yields from rising, the entire bond market is about to be monetized!

Mar 24, 2020

Gold: How It Reacts During Crisis

During the 2008 financial crisis, gold fell about 25 percent and took seven months to make a new high. This time gold only fell about 15 percent, and may make a new high in under a month. This shows how much greater this financial crisis is, and how much more reckless current Fed policy is.

Related trading instruments: SPDR Gold Trust ETF (GLD), Market Vectors Gold Miners ETF (GDX)

Bailing Out The Airline Industry

Watching CNBC anchors spreading more industry propaganda that without a government bailout, the U.S. will not have an airline industry. Without a bailout the U.S. will have a much stronger airline industry. To work at CNBC one must fail a test on free market economics.

Related trading instruments: Delta Air Lines (DAL), American Airlines (AAL), JetBlue Airways (JBLU)

Mar 23, 2020

QE Infinity Will Crash The U.S. Dollar

Americans wanting intervention to weaken the U.S. dollar should be careful what they wish for. The overvalued U.S. dollar is making things worse abroad, but it's actually lessening the pain here. Quantitative Easing (QE) infinity will crash the U.S. dollar on its own once the global dollar liquidity squeeze ends.

Mar 21, 2020

Gold Will Skyrocket

Gold is falling because investors are clueless as to what is coming. Their mindset is similar to that of central bankers. They have no idea how bad the consequences of the current monetary and fiscal policy mistakes will be. When they figure it out en masse, gold will skyrocket.

Related trading instruments: SPDR Gold Trust ETF (GLD), iShares Silver ETF (SLV), Market Vectors Gold Miners ETF (GDX), Market Vectors Junior Gold Miners ETF (GDXJ)

Mar 19, 2020

Inflation Is Coming

All the discussion of the current economic decline and whether the stock market has bottomed is missing the point. The damage being done now by Federal Government spending and Federal Reserve money printing to cushion the immediate impact has adverse consequences worse than the Coronavirus. 

The money the Federal Reserve is printing isn't going to have value. It isn't going to buy anything. Prices are going to skyrocket. And in fact, this coronavirus is accelerating that process because it's reducing the supply of goods available to buy.

Mar 16, 2020

This Crisis Is Economic, Not Merely Financial

The financial crisis of 2008 was a cake walk compared to this. All that happened in 2008 was real estate prices fell, borrowers defaulted, and lenders lost money. Today global commerce is grading to a halt. Production is shutting down. This crisis is economic, not merely financial.

Game Over!

In 2008 we bailed out the banks and GSE's, as they owned the mortgages. Today it's not just mortgage debtors who can't pay, it's all debtors. It's not just banks that need to be bailed out, but every leveraged business in every industry. Who is left to do the bailing? Game over!

Mar 12, 2020

The Russell 2000 Index Is Down 33% From Its High

The Russell 2000 Index, the purest stock play on the U.S. economy, is down 33 percent from its record high set in August of 2018, wiping out all the gains from June of 2016, 3 months before real Donald Trump was elected President. A Presidency that lives by the stock market dies by it as well!

Related trading instruments: iShares Russell 2000 Index ETF (IWM), SPDR S&P 500 Index ETF (SPY), Nasdaq 100 Index ETF (QQQ), SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF (DIA)

This Is Similar To 2008

CNBC anchors keep repeating that what is happening now bears no resemblance to what happened in 2008. Not only is this extremely similar to 2008, as in both cases a credit bubble popped, but it's also similar in that none of the anchors on CNBC saw that crisis coming either!

Mar 9, 2020

Why Own Bitcoin?

Bitcoin was created after the 2008 financial crisis and hodlers always assumed that it would be the safe-haven of choice during the next. Looks like they assumed wrong. If Bitcoin is not a currency, not a store of value, and not a safe haven, then what is it and why own it?

The Fed Will Cut Rates To Zero

The collapse in oil prices will provide cover for the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates to zero and ramp up QE, as it can claim it's necessary to fight declining inflation expectations. But when the U.S. dollar cracks, and oil and consumer prices surge, the Federal Reserve will be unable to reverse the policy.

Mar 5, 2020

The Dow Jones Transports Is In Bear Market Territory

The Dow Jones Transports are leading the decline, now down 20 percent into official bear market territory. The next stop is the December 2018 low, which is 5 percent below current levels. If we take that out the January 2016 low is a realistic target. That would be a 44 percent decline from the high! 

Related stocks: Delta Air Lines (DAL), United Parcel Service (UPS), Union Pacific Corporation (UNP), American Airlines

How A Recession Really Happens

What happens when declining revenue results in over-leveraged businesses being unable to make the interest payments on their debts?

What happens when over-extended workers living paycheck-to-paycheck get laid off and can’t make their mortgage, car loan, or credit card payments?

The Fed Can’t Stimulate The Economy During Downturns

The Federal Reserve should not even have the mission of stimulating the economy during downturns, as it can’t actually do it. All the Federal Reserve can do is exacerbate the problems that recessions attempt to solve. The Fed only succeeds in delaying the day of reckoning by making the problems bigger.

Trump Cannot Beat Biden In A Recession

While it was possible that Donald Trump could beat Bernie Sanders during a recession, there is no way he can beat Joe Biden. Biden won't be good for the economy or the stock market. He will increase government spending, taxes, and regulation substantially. Look out below!

Mar 1, 2020

The Last Thing The Fed Should Do

The last thing the Federal Reserve should do now is rescue the stock market or the economy by cutting interest rates. It's rate cuts of the past that have left both the stock market and the economy so vulnerable in the present. It's much better to swallow some very bitter tasting medicine.

Related trading instruments: SPDR S&P 500 Index ETF (SPY), Nasdaq 100 Index ETF (QQQ), SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF (DIA)

Stocks: Sell-Off or Crash?

CNBC anchor Andrew Ross Sorkin of CNBC just said there is no other word to describe the recent market plunge other than "sell-off." Let me introduce a new word into Andrew's vocabulary, "crash."

Related trading instruments: SPDR S&P 500 Index ETF (SPY), Nasdaq 100 Index ETF (QQQ), SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF (DIA)

The U.S. Economic "Recovery" Was Based On A Stock Market Bubble

The U.S. economic "recovery" was based on a stock market bubble. Once that bubble pops there is no way to avoid a severe recession. It does not matter why the bubble pops. All that matters is that it does. A stock market crash pulls the rug out from under an asset-based economy.

Sanders Generates Enthusiasm By Promising Free Stuff

Senator Bernie Sanders generates enthusiasm not by promising more freedom, but more free stuff. His sales pitch is not to allow voters to keep more of what they earn, but to take more of what others earn. It’s a campaign based on envy and theft, rather than personal achievement.

Sanders says “anyone who feels entitled to a decent standard of living” should join his campaign. No one is entitled to anything they did not earn. No one has a right to use government to steal what others have earned. Plus, what defines decent and who defines it?

Feb 13, 2020

Delinquent Auto Loans Are On The Rise!

It makes perfect sense that during what Trump claims is the greatest economic boom in world history that a record number of Americans can't even make their car payments!

Feb 10, 2020

U.S. Economy: Renting Costs Are Too High

"One in four renters is paying more than half their income on housing." - Peter Schiff

 Read the complete article here: The Rent’s Too High!

Jan 13, 2020

The Bullish Case For Gold

You know, the reason the US stock market went up this year is because the Federal Reserve surprised everybody by doing exactly what I had been predicting they would do. They aborted their feigned attempt to normalize their interest rates and shrink their balance sheet. They went back to interest rate cuts and quantitative easing. This is extremely bullish for gold.

Jan 6, 2020

Investors Don't Believe The Gold Rally

As gold nears a 7-year high, gold stocks continue to lag. Investors don't believe the gold rally, as they attribute it to temporary safe-haven buying. But geopolitical risk will remain elevated for years as Fed policy, the main driver of the rally, gets even more reckless.

Related trading instruments: 

Newmont Mining (NEM), Goldcorp (GG), Market Vectors Gold Miners ETF (GDX), Market Vectors Junior Gold Miners ETF (GDXJ), SPDR Gold Trust ETF (GLD)

Bitcoin & Gold Rallying

For those Bitcoin bugs excited about Bitcoin's 4 percent rally in 2020, think about this: Gold is also up by about the same percentage this year, only with significantly less downside risk.

If this is the best rally Bitcoin can muster, how will it ever hit 50,000, let alone 1 million?

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