Feb 15, 2018

Stock Market: The Dance That We're Doing

Why didn't the stock market follow the bond market down? Of course it's because the stock market didn't follow the bond market down that the bond market kept falling and if the stock market doesn't fall then the bond market will keep falling and interest rates will keep rising until it does (make the stock market go down), that is the dance that we're doing. (SPDR S&P 500 Index ETF (SPY), Nasdaq 100 Index ETF (QQQ), SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF (DIA))

Inflation Is Good For Gold

A $12 decline (in gold prices) turned into a $25 rally what is that showing that as the idiot morons robotic sellers when they see higher than expected inflation sell the dollar people who use their brains are starting to dip to think and actually come into the market and say wait a minute I don't care what these algorithms or computer programs say inflation is good for gold. (SPDR Gold Trust ETF (GLD), Market Vectors Gold Miners ETF (GDX), Market Vectors Junior Gold Miners ETF (GDXJ))

The Democrats Now Look Like The Fiscally Responsible Party

The Republicans have now succeeded in doing something that you would have thought was impossible. They are making the Democrats look like the fiscally responsible party.

The US Dollar Will Continue To Get Slaughtered

The US Dollar is going to get slaughtered a lot more and the bond market is going to get slaughter a lot more in the days ahead. Maybe not exactly tomorrow but they're going to be days that are going to come that are going to be much worse than today. This is just the beginning this is the tip of a huge iceberg that is going to be developing.

Feb 12, 2018

Stock Market: Bear Market or Correction?

Looking at the fundamentals this looks so much more like a bear market. In fact, when you listen to the talking heads on CNBC they keep saying, "relax don't worry you know this is a correction the market is long overdue for correction, we haven't had a correction in a long time and corrections are normal and they're healthy." And all that is true but you know we also haven't had a bear market in a long time and bear markets happen,  bear markets are normal so how do they know that we're having now is not the long overdue bear market?

Massive Volatility Is Indicative Of A Trend Change

We're continuing massive volatility which is I said to me is indicative of a change of trend because we were so long in an uptrend with no volatility now all of a sudden you have this massive volatility. (Select Sector Financial Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLF), SPDR S&P 500 Index ETF (SPY), iShares Russell 2000 Index ETF (IWM), Nasdaq 100 Index ETF (QQQ))

Feb 9, 2018

Markets: Nothing Is Going To Stop Rates From Rising

Bond yields rose anyway even a 1,000 points down in the Dow Jones Industrials average wasn't even enough to send treasury yields lower with the yield on the 10-year and the 30-year rising to new highs for the move.

We had a horrible 30-year bond auction again. Why anybody showed up is beyond me but obviously not as many people showed up as they thought.  The big drop in the Dow Jones Industrials didn't make interest rates go down it just kept them from going up even more but nothing is going to stop rates from rising.

Feb 8, 2018

Stock Market: Volatility Signals a Trend Change

When you have a trend and then all of a sudden you see lots of volatility generally that's a sign that the trend is changing and the trend has been up obviously stocks have been trending up for years and they've been trending up with minimal volatility. When all of a sudden you see massive volatility does that mean the trend is likely to continue? No! It's more likely a sign that the trend has come to an end. (SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF (DIA), iShares Russell 2000 Index ETF (IWM), Nasdaq 100 Index ETF (QQQ), SPDR S&P 500 Index ETF (SPY))

This Just Shows How Quickly The Market Can Go Down

If you look at the five days from the high, in five trading days the Dow Jones futures lost about 13 percent of their value. In five days! Now that just shows you how quickly the market can go down, I mean, the next time it could lose even more even faster. (SPDR S&P 500 Index ETF (SPY), Nasdaq 100 Index ETF (QQQ), iShares Russell 2000 Index ETF (IWM), SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF (DIA))

Feb 6, 2018

Markets: The Problem With The Debt

Today if we have trillion dollar deficits not only is the Federal Reserve not monetizing any of it but the Federal Reserve is actually contributing to the problem by not rolling over the bonds that it holds as claiming it's going to shrink its balance sheet. Which means on top of the trillion dollars that the Treasury would need to sell to finance its deficits it's gonna have to sell extra Treasuries to repay the Fed what it's not rolling over. So this is impossible, this is a tidal wave of debt that's coming out of the market.

Related trading instruments: 10-Year U.S. Treasuries, iShares Barclays 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT)

Stock Market: It's a Major Decline

We didn't have a black Monday like 1987 as it wasn't a 20 percent decline but it was the biggest point decline in the history of the stock market by a large magnitude. We were down 1,175 points and we were down 1,600 points at the intraday low. So this is the biggest point decline ever but in percentage terms it is in the top 20 (I think it was like number 14 or something) but it is a major decline and we rarely see declines this big. (SPDR S&P 500 Index ETF (SPY), SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF (DIA), Nasdaq 100 Index ETF (QQQ))

Stock Market: This Brings Back Vivid Memories Of 2008

Listening to all the so-called experts on financial TV reassuring investors that there is nothing to worry about, and that the fundamentals are sound, brings back vivid memories of 2008, as that's exactly what the same experts were saying just before the financial crisis. (SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF (DIA), Nasdaq 100 Index ETF (QQQ), SPDR S&P 500 Index ETF (SPY))

Feb 5, 2018

Stock Market: This Year Seems To Have A Lot In Common With 1987

Think about this, 1987 was the year that we had the stock market crash. Well, January was the best month for the US stock market since 1987 and the US Dollar just had its weakest January since 1987. So far this year seems to have a lot in common with 1987.

Stock Market Correction: The Start of Something Much Bigger

A three percent correction is pretty normal except we haven't had one in a long time and the question is is this the start of something more ominous or is this just a small correction and you know what I think there's a lot of evidence that it is the start of something much bigger part of the evidence is that nobody is concerned nobody is worried there's maximum complacency. (SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF (DIA), SPDR S&P 500 Index ETF (SPY), Nasdaq 100 Index ETF (QQQ))

Feb 2, 2018

Pronounced Weakness In The US Dollar

January is over this is the worst January for the dollar index since 1987, this is a big move! January was the weakest month for the dollar against the yuan not just the weakest January but the weakest of any month going all the way back to 1994. So we're having some pronounced weakness in the dollar at a time where everybody is optimistic on the US economy.

Feb 1, 2018

Greenspan: Bubbles In Stocks & Bonds

Alan Greenspan was on CNBC today talking about the bubble in the bond market the bubble in the stock market how we're coming to stagflation how we don't have any productivity growth I mean I believe that Alan Greenspan knows exactly how bad this is.

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