Traders have convinced themselves that America is going to win a trade war or at least take the fewest casualties because the reason that the Russell 2000 is doing better than the Dow or the S&P; is that you don't have the multinationals. And the theory is that the domestic economy can easily weather the trade war. That it's no big deal, that trade is a small part of the US economy and so we got nothing to worry about but if you are worried well maybe worry about the multinationals that stand to lose so just focus on all these small companies that are just benefitting and basking in the glow of the greatest economy in the history of the world. If you don't believe it just ask President Trump and he will tell you. But this is all a bunch of nonsense and the nonsense continues to drive the dollar higher.
Jun 11, 2018
What Donald Trump is saying about trade is correct. But what he fails to mention is that eliminating the deficit means much higher consumer prices and interest rates in the United States.
So to receive the long-term gain, Americans will have to suffer through a lot of short-term pain!
at 6:01 AM
This is what everybody is missing: there is no way that the Federal Reserve is going to be able to shrink its balance sheet. There's no way that the Treasury is going to be able to find private buyers for all this debt at interest rates that are low enough not to collapse the US economy.
at 5:58 AM
Jun 8, 2018
Jun 6, 2018
If global industrial growth soften or even plunge, so would lead/zinc and copper mining, which together accounted for 59 percent of silver extraction in 2017. That could also cause the price of silver to spike.
Related trading instruments: iShares Silver ETF (SLV)
at 7:15 AM
Jun 5, 2018
If the stock market gets cut in half again, the Fed is not going to bail you out with another round of quantitative easing.
They’re not going to bail you out with rate cuts because the next time the Fed tries to do that, it will destroy the dollar. I am confident of that. The next time is the last time. We will have a dollar crisis and a sovereign debt crisis.
at 6:06 AM
Deutsche Bank (DB) could be the weak link of a chain. If you remember back to when we had the financial crisis 2008, first, you had the sub-prime mortgages blowing up, and everybody was like don’t worry about it. It’s contained. I said it’s not contained, it’s just showing up first in the sub-prime market because these are the weakest mortgages.
I think the banking system has a huge problem because it’s lived off of the life support of artificially low interest rates. As that is removed, it’s like pulling the plug off of someone who has lived off life support. The irony is you have so many analysts that think higher rates are good for the banks...
at 6:04 AM
Jun 4, 2018
I think that we're going back up and making new highs on interest rates which of course is going to be problematic for every aspect of the economy that is in debt including you know the consumers who are taking on more debt to continue to spend because they're not earning that money.
at 5:41 AM
Jun 1, 2018
The consensus is extremely bullish now on the US dollar. it was quite bearish a few months ago and now all of a sudden everybody is bullish everybody is looking for the dollar to go up it's probably almost as strong the bullishness on the dollar and bearish this on the euro is probably almost as extreme as it was at the beginning of last year and of course that ushered in the worst the biggest decline in 14-year the dollar.
at 9:09 AM
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