Jun 30, 2017

The Euro Is Not My Favorite Currency

 The Euro is not my favorite currency. I do think that there are other currencies that are ultimately going to enjoy even bigger gains against the US Dollar than the Euro which means those other currencies will also be gaining against the Euro but you have so much short interest in the Euro so many people betting on the demise of the eurozone and look I still believe that the euro zone is going to fall apart it's just not going to fall apart as soon as a lot of people thought. 

Euro Currency: This Move Is Just Beginning

The US dollar we're now trading just below 1.1450, remember wasn't too long ago the euro was down around 1.05 or so and everybody was talking parity with the dollar, all the traders were short the euro and I was saying that the euro was bottoming, that the euro is going to rise and the rise is just now beginning and I think there's a lot more to this move, of course other currencies are also following the euro's lead.

The Euro Is Surging Against The US Dollar

The US dollar continued its decline, the dollar index falling to a fresh eight-month low. The dollar is being led lower by a surging euro. The euro is actually at a 12-month high against the US dollar. 

Jun 29, 2017

Draghi Sends Euro Higher, US Dollar Lower

The US Dollar was down sharply and broadly led lower by a rally in the euro currency. The catalyst for the euro rise were some statements by Mario Draghi early in the morning basically where he said that he thought the downward pressures on inflation were transitory so a somewhat hawkish stance on inflation and the markets took that to mean that QE will come to an end sooner rather than later.

Jun 26, 2017

Gold: Putting In A Significant Bottom

I think the significant thing though for the US Dollar and gold is that the dollar is in the process of putting in a very significant top and the flip side of that is that gold is in the process of putting in a significant bottom. I think the catalysts for breakdowns in the dollar and breakouts in gold is going to be some realization, some capitulation on the part of the markets, the Federal Reserve to square perception with reality because you know the economic surprise index is at the lowest that span since 2011. People have been looking forward to good news and they've been disappointed constantly. (SPDR Gold Trust ETF (GLD), iShares Silver ETF (SLV), Market Vectors Gold Miners ETF (GDX))

Jun 22, 2017

Gold: The Opposite of a Bubble

Gold, I think is getting ready again for a move in the opposite direction (higher) but you have the opposite of a bubble in gold. Certainly if you look at the United States, Americans are buying less gold now than they've done you know since the bull market began in 1999-2000. (SPDR Gold Trust ETF (GLD), Newmont Mining (NEM), Barrick Gold (ABX), Goldcorp (GG), Market Vectors Gold Miners ETF (GDX), Market Vectors Junior Gold Miners ETF (GDXJ))

Jun 21, 2017

When Markets Are As Extended, They Can Top On Anything

We had a bit of a turnaround Tuesday today all of the major US stock market averages were higher in the morning and we closed broadly lower on the day. In fact the Dow Jones Industrials Average (DJIA) did make a new all-time record high this morning before closing down about 60 points so though the decline in the Nasdaq was a little bit greater. We had a 0.82% decline in the Nasdaq, the Dow was only down by about 0.3%. The S&P 500 Index though had a bigger decline as it was down about 0.7%, so the broader averages took a bigger decline than did the Dow.

Now, I don't think the technical damage is extreme. Yes, we made new highs and close lower but it really wasn't an outside day, I mean we didn't close below Monday's lows for example which would have been an outside reversal but we'll see. You know, when markets are as extended as they are, of course, you know, they can top on anything.

Jun 20, 2017

Investing: How To Profit From The Trump Train Wreck

Peter Schiff speaks in Vancouver at the International Metal Writers Conference on how to profit from the Trump train wreck. (Market Vectors Gold Miners ETF (GDX), SPDR Gold Trust ETF (GLD))

Jun 19, 2017

Housing Starts Declining, Trouble Ahead?

We had an unexpected big drop in housing starts. This is the third month in a row that the starts are down but not only where housing starts way down but building permits were also way down so that means that this trend is likely to continue. The last time we had three consecutive monthly declines it was in 2009. What was going on in 2009? Oh, the greatest recession since the Great Depression! (KB Home (NYSE:KBH), Lennar Corporation (LEN), SPDR S&P Homebuilders (ETF) (XHB), D.R. Horton (DHI))

Jun 16, 2017

A Hawkish Federal Reserve

We actually got a hawkish hike not only did the Federal Reserve raise rates but they did nothing to dampen expectations for future interest rate hikes. In fact Janet Yellen in her prepared remarks and in the press conference that followed was very upbeat, very optimistic on the economy not worried about anything and no longer talking about the need for some kind of confirmation that prior economic weakness was transitory. She thinks that it's clear skies as far as the eye can see.

Jun 14, 2017

Big Reversal In Bitcoin

It wasn't just the stock market that had big reversals I guess it was the crypto currencies as well particularly Bitcoin. You know, I mentioned the last couple of times that I was talking about Bitcoin and the kryptos, the shrinking market share that Bitcoin had in the crypto world and that continues right now. The market cap of Bitcoin is now down to about 40 percent of the total market cap of all the crypto currencies.

Jun 12, 2017

Gold Stocks: Performing Much Better

Gold stocks continued to trade much better than they have been, I mentioned that on my last podcast even though gold was down 11 dollars on the day, gold stocks were down but not that much, down just a little bit. (Newmont Mining (NEM), Barrick Gold (ABX), Market Vectors Gold Miners ETF (GDX), Market Vectors Junior Gold Miners ETF (GDXJ), Goldcorp (GG))

Jun 8, 2017

Market Vectors Junior Gold Miners ETF (GDXJ) Has Some Catching Up To Do

The smaller gold miners if you look at the  Market Vectors Junior Gold Miners ETF (GDXJ) which is an index of junior gold mining stocks,  I I think this thing still has to move up 30 percent or so to get back to where it was when gold was lower than it is right now earlier this year.

Gold Hits A New High For The Year

The price of gold has been creeping higher and higher ever since it had that correction and by the way I think I did a pretty good job of nailing the correction, the fact that I said it would be a very shallow correction and I'm pretty sure that I nailed the the bottom. I came on and I did a podcast when it looked to me like the gold stocks were confirming an end of the correction in gold and gold did rally and initially gold stocks rallied to but then the gold stocks came back down and almost retested their lows, didn't quite do it. But the price of gold never came back down, the price of gold kept rising and rising and now finally yesterday the price of gold hit a new high for the year. (Market Vectors Gold Miners ETF (GDX), Market Vectors Junior Gold Miners ETF (GDXJ), SPDR Gold Trust ETF (GLD))

Jun 7, 2017

Currency Markets: Monetary Policy Divergence (EUR/USD)

I think that even if the Federal Reserve hikes again in a couple of weeks they're nearing the end of their tightening cycle and you know even though the Federal Reserve claimed to be data dependent and they hike interest rates despite the fact that the data was much weaker than they thought, I think the markets are starting to look beyond the hikes to the cuts. I think we're getting ready to start a new easing cycle and on the other side of the Atlantic the ECB is getting ready to end their easing cycle and to begin tightening so I think the currency markets are more looking at that policy divergence than whether or not Trump is going to get any anything through Congress.

Jun 6, 2017

Gold & Gold Stocks Will Move Higher

When the Federal Reserve raises rates in June, if they raise rates in June, Gold is going to take off. If they don't raise interest rates in June then it's going to explode even higher and of course you know you're going to see an even bigger move in the gold stocks. (Market Vectors Gold Miners ETF (GDX), Market Vectors Junior Gold Miners ETF (GDXJ), SPDR Gold Trust ETF (GLD))

Jun 5, 2017

Bitcoin Is A Speculative Asset, A Bubble

I don't think something like Bitcoin is ever going to succeed at being money. It's not going to be used as a medium of exchange as a store of value but what it is now is a speculative asset. People are buying it, it's appreciating and the people that own it on paper are making money and some of them are actually cashing out and making real money but the majority of the paper wealth that's been accumulated is still sitting there. But you do have people that are coming in and buying at these high prices. Ultimately the bubble is going to pop and the things are going to come crashing down, the question is how much bigger is this bubble going to get? Have we already seen the peak or is this going to be the biggest bubble of all time?

The U.S. Dollar Index May Drop To 60

The U.S. Dollar Index closed at a new low for the year solidly below 97.00.  We closed at 96.67, I think the key level is 92 which is the low from May of last year but once we break through that and I think there'll be some support around that level, but once we break through 92 we're making room for 80 and that is a pretty big drop. I think that can happen in a short period of time. 

Probably, of course, 80.00 is not the bottom because 70 was the low in summer of 2008 but then you know the dollar got Saved by the Bell by the financial crisis. Ain't going to happen again the next crisis is the US Dollar so we're going to take out 70.00, we're going to go to 60.00 and then we are below 60.00 I think is when we're going to have a crisis. Now who knows where gold is going to be by then, I think gold (SPDR Gold Trust ETF (GLD)) is going to be much much higher.

Jun 2, 2017

The Trump Trade Unraveled A Bit

The Trump trade unraveled a bit. Remember early in the Trump trade you had a strong dollar the US Dollar has surrendered a hundred percent of its gains post Trump's election and so year-to-date even though the S&P 500 Index is up, priced in gold the S&P 500 Index is actually down. And if you compare the US stock market to other stock markets around the world the US stock market is one of the worst performing markets in the world so it doesn't sound like the Trump trade is working it sounds like the trades that are working are buying gold and buying foreign stocks. (SPDR Gold Trust ETF (GLD), SPDR S&P 500 Index ETF (SPY), iShares MSCI Emerging Markets Index ETF (EEM))

Jun 1, 2017

Gold Stocks: Investors Are Not Believing In The Gold Rally

Gold (SPDR Gold Trust ETF (GLD)) continues to rise. It was up again today (yesterday). This is the highest gold has been since, I think, mid April we got above 1270.00 intraday, and we closed just a hair below it. 

But continuing the trend gold stocks were down. I think that Market Vectors Gold Miners ETF (GDX) was barely positive today (yesterday), the Market Vectors Junior Gold Miners ETF (GDXJ)  was down again. 

So gold stocks continued to trade weak in the face of rising gold prices and again what this has been telling me because this has been going on now for quite some time, is that the investors do not believe this rally because if they believed it they would be bidding up gold stocks.

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