A Bear Market in Stocks, Plus An Economic Recession

I think not only we are in a bear market in stocks, I think we are in a recession economically. I think the recession we are in now is going to be longer and deeper than the great recession of 2008-2009. 

All bear market begin as corrections but they do not officially call it a bear market until its down 20 percent. The Russell 2000 Index is down 25 percent, the Transports Index is down 30 percent, many individual sectors and stocks are down a lot more than 20 percent!

Peter Schiff is an American businessman, investment broker and financial commentator. Schiff is the CEO and chief global strategist of Euro Pacific Capital Inc.

The Recession Is Going To Gather Momentum

The U.S. Economy is rapidly returning to recession, I think the recession has already begun and I think this greater recession that is going to be worse than the one we had in 2008-2009 begun at the end of last year. It is going to gather momentum through out this year and that is going to make it impossible to raise interest rates again.

Peter Schiff is an American businessman, investment broker and financial commentator. Schiff is the CEO and chief global strategist of Euro Pacific Capital Inc.

The Federal Reserve Is Not Going To Be Able To Raise Interest Rates Again

I do not believe the Federal Reserve is going to be able to raise interest rates again, that was the reason I thought they were not going to raise them at all. I thought they were smart enough to recognize what the consequences of raising rates would be and that they would not want to put themselves in a box. I guess I overestimated the competency of the Federal Reserve. They raised rates apparently clueless of the havoc it would cause in the markets but I warned everybody of what was going to happen.

Of course since they raised rates, this is the worst start to a year in the stock market in history and in fact its one of the worst months in history of any year. And the U.S. Economy is rapidly returning to recession.

Peter Schiff is an American businessman, investment broker and financial commentator. Schiff is the CEO and chief global strategist of Euro Pacific Capital Inc.

What The Federal Reserve Will Do Now

The bottom line is everybody is excited now because we are getting more money printing from Europe and possibly from japan too. That is what is driving everything but it is not over until the Fat Lady sings.

Janet Yellen is going to have to join the chorus. And it is not just about maybe the Fed is going to slow down their tightening. Because they are still projecting four interest rate hikes during 2016. The Fed did not even come out and said anything. The last we heard from anybody at the Fed was that the U.S. Economy was in great shape and their opinions have not changed at all since the rate hike. But for some reason Draghi felt compelled to take one for the team, "we are going to spare no expense, there is no mil it to what we are going to do."

The Fed has this credibility problem. I knew they were going to have this problem if they raised rates. They cannot come out and say, "We are going to ear too", they just tightened! The Fed is going to try, I believe, for as long as possible to delay having to admit that they are going to cut rates or do QE4.

Peter Schiff is an American businessman, investment broker and financial commentator. Schiff is the CEO and chief global strategist of Euro Pacific Capital Inc.

A U.S. Economic Recovery And Higher Rates Cannot Coexist!

What is amazing to me is that people will not see that all these interest rate hikes cannot happen because the U.S. economy is the economy that is the most vulnerable to higher rates. We are the biggest debtors. A U.S. economic recovery and higher rates cannot coexist!

Peter Schiff is an American businessman, investment broker and financial commentator. Schiff is the CEO and chief global strategist of Euro Pacific Capital Inc.

The Fed Is Going To Take Interest Rates Negative, Launch QE4

The Federal Reserve is going to try it again. The Fed is going to take interest rates negative and launch QE4 that it is going to be bigger than QE3. But it will be too late to stop this recession from unfolding.

Peter Schiff is an American businessman, investment broker and financial commentator. Schiff is the CEO and chief global strategist of Euro Pacific Capital Inc.

Markets: Jamie Dimon Is Wrong, High Yield Bonds & Treasuries

The market has got to be telling us that not only we are in a bear market but we are in a recession, the market is forward looking, the market is telling us that we are in a recession. In fact, the bond market is telling us that.

I was watching Jamie Dimon on CNBC, he was talking about why he saw value in the high yield bond market and he is looking at the spreads between high yield and Treasuries and he is saying, the high yield market is priced as if we were in a severe recession and therefore this is a great bargain because we all know that we are not in a severe recession, we are not even in a recession, the economy is going to grow 2 to 3 percent this year. Everything is great yet the bonds are priced as if there is a recession. Maybe the reason that the bond market is priced as if we are in a severe recession it is because we are in a severe recession. That would make sense because why are the bonds priced as if we are in a severe recession? Because we are! All the economic data that we keep getting shows that.

Peter Schiff is an American businessman, investment broker and financial commentator. Schiff is the CEO and chief global strategist of Euro Pacific Capital Inc.

U.S. Stocks: All Bear Markets Begin As Corrections

The bear market in global stocks continues. In fact I believe we are in a bear market in the United States even though nobody wants to admit that its a bear market because technically the major averages are not quite down 20 percent even though some of the averages are, the Russell 2000 Index is down 25 percent from its high, in a bear market. There are many individual sectors that are way down in bear market territory.

All bear markets begin as corrections. You cannot be down 20 percent if you are not down 10 percent first. The bear market of 2001 when the S&P 500 Index and the Dow Jones Industrials were basically cut in half, the Nasdaq went down by 80 percent, that decline started as a correction. The same thing in 2008, that market meltdown where the S&P 500 Index and the Dow Jones Industrials were down about 50 percent, they were calling it a correction too until they realized that it was a bear market. And that is what they are talking about today.

Peter Schiff is an American businessman, investment broker and financial commentator. Schiff is the CEO and chief global strategist of Euro Pacific Capital Inc.

Markets: We Are Clearly In A Recession Now

We are clearly in a recession now, the question is for how long have we been in recession, did it start a few months ago or is it starting this month?

We are back in a recession and its going to be a horrible recession, I think its going to be worse than the Great Recession (2008-2009) so it will be a greater recession. And it is because of everything the Fed did to mitigate the damage back then, they just postponed the pain to a later date, unfortunetely this is the later date and the pain is about to begin.

Peter Schiff is an American businessman, investment broker and financial commentator. Schiff is the CEO and chief global strategist of Euro Pacific Capital Inc.

This Is Clearly The Type Of Action That You Get In A Bear Market

This is clearly the type of action that you get in a bear market. I think we are in a bear market and many stocks have been in a bear market for a long time but it was being masked by some of these big profile names that were doing so well that were masking the problems beneath the surface. Now that those stocks have joined the party they are no longer obscuring what is going on.

Peter Schiff is an American businessman, investment broker and financial commentator. Schiff is the CEO and chief global strategist of Euro Pacific Capital Inc.

There Many Stocks Down 60, 70, 80 Percent

All the major averages are now lower than they were when the Federal Reserve ended QE3. Pretty soon they will all be lower than they were when the Federal Reserve started QE3. And when you dig beneath the sectors there are many individual stocks that are down 20, 30, 40, 50, 60, 70 and 80 percent. Look at GoPro (GPRO) now down 82 percent from where it was last year, that was one of the highly touted IPO`s and obviously it has now collapsed.

Peter Schiff is an American businessman, investment broker and financial commentator. Schiff is the CEO and chief global strategist of Euro Pacific Capital Inc.

Stock Market: We Are Probably In A Bear Market Right Now

The Dow Jones Industrials Index ended another down week on a down note dropping 390 points. The Nasdaq Composite was down as well, down 126 points. Of course at one point the Nasdaq Composite was down almost 190 points and the Dow Jones Industrials was down 530 points but we still finished off a pretty bad week extending the rout. This is the worst January in the history of the stock market.

The Dow Jones Industrials is now off 13 percent from its highs, the Nasdaq Composite about 15 percent from its highs so firmly in correction territory, that is what Wall Street calls a decline of 10 percent or more. When it hits a decline of 20 percent they call it a bear market.

We are probably in a bear market right now because ultimately those indexes will be down 20 percent so we are just early in the bear market. The Dow Jones Transportation Index is down 27 percent from its highs, that is a bear market, the Russell 2000 Index is down about 23 percent, so bear market territory there. And of course there are many sectors that are in a bear market.

Peter Schiff is an American businessman, investment broker and financial commentator. Schiff is the CEO and chief global strategist of Euro Pacific Capital Inc.

Markets, Economy: The Last Thing That Janet Yellen Wants

The last thing that Janet Yellen wants to do is to hand the election to a Republican or maybe even to Donald Trump, so she is going to do whatever she can to deliver it to Hillary Clinton. She remembers what happened when Alan Greenspan bubble bursted while Bush was still in office, guaranteed that Obama would win and McCain had no chance with that kind of baggage. Well, she does not want to leave Hillary Clinton with the same kind of baggage. She wants Barack Obama to be able to leave claiming that he saved us.

Peter Schiff is an American businessman, investment broker and financial commentator. Schiff is the CEO and chief global strategist of Euro Pacific Capital Inc.

U.S. Economy: All The Leading Indicators That Are Forward Looking Are Flashing Recession

Jobs are a lagging indicator. They do not tell you where the economy is going, they tell you where it has been. All the leading indicators that are forward looking are flashing recession and once this recession hits and all employers realize that they were wrong in anticipating a non-existing recovery, they will be laying off a lot of workers that they should never have hired in the first place. Then the unemployment rate is going to skyrocket, then all the non-farm payrolls are going to disappear and by then we will be deep in the recession.

Peter Schiff is an American businessman, investment broker and financial commentator. Schiff is the CEO and chief global strategist of Euro Pacific Capital Inc.

Lots Of Downside To Markets & Economy

We had the worst opening week in the history of the stock market and I think there is a lot downside to come both for the market and for the economy.

It is amazing that some people are trying to pretend that there is no problem or they are trying to say that it is contained to China, or that the problems of the economy are contained to manufacturing and everything else is OK. That is what they said when the mortgage bubble bursted. They said it was contained to subprime or when the Nasdaq bubble bursted that it was contained to tech. It is never contained but they never run out of excuses.

Peter Schiff is an American businessman, investment broker and financial commentator. Schiff is the CEO and chief global strategist of Euro Pacific Capital Inc.

Markets: Is This A Buying Opportunity?

In the meantime the Great Recession that was interrupted by the Federal Reserve is about to resume unless the Fed comes back. Ultimately we are going to die of the Fed`s cure that is even worse than the disease.

But yes, this might be a buying opportunity, it all depends on how quickly the Federal Reserve comes clean. But I think they are going to wait a while, they are playing a game of chicken but this economy is in lousy shape. When people say, "Its contained to manufacturing, it is just an industrial recession", it is as contained as the mortgage problems were contained to subprime.

Related Exchange Traded Funds: Energy Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLE), Select Sector Financial Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLF), SPDR Barclays Capital High Yield Bnd ETF (JNK), SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF (DIA), SPDR S&P 500 Index ETF (SPY)

Peter Schiff is an American businessman, investment broker and financial commentator. Schiff is the CEO and chief global strategist of Euro Pacific Capital Inc.

The Market Is Going Lower Until The Fed Comes Clean

First of all, we are nowhere near capitulation. I think we are still in denial. Remember, the entire bull market was about the Federal Reserve and the Fed finally pricked its own bubble in December. And there is a lot more air that is going to come out. The market is going much, much lower until the Federal Reserve comes clean and admits that it is not raising interest rates any more. I think they will have to launch QE4 to stop this market and that is exactly what they are going to do.

Peter Schiff is an American businessman, investment broker and financial commentator. Schiff is the CEO and chief global strategist of Euro Pacific Capital Inc.

The One Thing That Has Not Declined Since The Fed Raised Rates

The one thing that has not declined since the Federal Reserve raised rates is gold. Gold is actually up better than 40 dollars an ounce since that rate hike. And if you remember, everybody was unanimous that if the Fed raised rates gold was going to tank because after all higher interest rates were going to crush the gold market. But I was saying the opposite because I knew that the price of gold had been falling for years in anticipating the raising rates. So, my perspective was, buy the rumor, sell the fact, and I thought the price of gold would go up. (SPDR Gold Trust ETF (GLD), Market Vectors Gold Miners ETF (GDX), Newmont Mining (NEM), Barrick Gold (ABX), Goldcorp (GG))

Peter Schiff is an American businessman, investment broker and financial commentator. Schiff is the CEO and chief global strategist of Euro Pacific Capital Inc.

U.S. Economy, Markets: We May Already Be In A Recession

We may already be in a recession. The Atlanta Fed has already downgraded their forecast for the fourth quarter of last year to just 0.8 percent. And I think by the time we actually get the first estimate on January 29th, we can actually have a negative number for the fourth quarter. And if you look at all the economic data that is coming out, we can easily have a negative first quarter too and then we are in a recession.

Peter Schiff is an American businessman, investment broker and financial commentator. Schiff is the CEO and chief global strategist of Euro Pacific Capital Inc.

Gold Stocks: Wall Street Is Still Oblivious To These Bargains

You would think that gold stocks would be up a lot more considering the fact that the cost for these mining companies are plunging because their labor costs are going down because they are in Canadian Dollars or Australian Dollars, their energy costs are collapsing and the revenue is going up.

But Wall Street is still oblivious to these bargains that exist in the mining sector but of course year-to-date the mining stocks are up and that is the only sector in the market that is up and I tell you that no one on Wall Street owns these stocks.

(Newmont Mining (NEM), Barrick Gold (ABX), Goldcorp (GG), Market Vectors Gold Miners ETF (GDX))

Peter Schiff is an American businessman, investment broker and financial commentator. Schiff is the CEO and chief global strategist of Euro Pacific Capital Inc.

The Yen Strength Is Scary For The Markets

The Dollar/Yen (USD/JPY) is really breaking down. And to me that is a very scary proposition for the markets to see this strength coming in the Japanese Yen.

(SPDR S&P 500 Index ETF (SPY), SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF (DIA), Nasdaq 100 Index ETF (QQQ))

Peter Schiff is an American businessman, investment broker and financial commentator. Schiff is the CEO and chief global strategist of Euro Pacific Capital Inc.

The Reason Why The Stock Market Is Falling

I do not believe that the news announcement had anything to do with the market`s decline. The market would have declined anyway even if North Korea had not tested the bomb, they would have blamed it on something else.

But the real problem is the Federal Reserve taking away the monetary heroin from all the addicts on Wall Street and this is the withdrawal.

(Select Sector Financial Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLF), SPDR Barclays Capital High Yield Bnd ETF (JNK), SPDR S&P 500 Index ETF (SPY), Nasdaq 100 Index ETF (QQQ))

Peter Schiff is an American businessman, investment broker and financial commentator. Schiff is the CEO and chief global strategist of Euro Pacific Capital Inc.

2008 Crisis: On The Verge Of Something Even Bigger

We are on the verge of something much more pronnounced than what happened in 2008. It is going to be a crisis that is going to be far more profoundly felt be everybody. It is going to make a much bigger difference.

Related ETFs: SPDR ETF (XLF), SPDR Barclays Capital High Yield Bnd ETF (JNK), SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF (DIA), SPDR S&P 500 Index ETF (SPY)

Peter Schiff is an American businessman, investment broker and financial commentator. Schiff is the CEO and chief global strategist of Euro Pacific Capital Inc.

Stock Market: A Lot Of Technical Damage

Until the Federal Reserve changes this dynamic, I do not see what is going to prop up this market. If everybody believes that interest rate hikes are coming, if the economy is weakening, if corporate earnings are under pressure, and you are fighting the Fed there is not a lot to this market.

And if you look at the technicals of the market, you look at the trends that have been broken in the S&P 500 Index, in the Nasdaq, in the Dow Jones Industrials... I mean there is a lot of technical damage to this market and it takes some kind of a game changing event (to reverse it).

Peter Schiff is an American businessman, investment broker and financial commentator. Schiff is the CEO and chief global strategist of Euro Pacific Capital Inc.

Dow Jones Transportation Index: Officially In Bear Market Territory

The Dow Jones Transportation Index continues to get crushed, again the weakest index on the day. We are down more than 20 percent from last year`s high. We are officially in bear market territory in the Dow Jones Transportation Index and do no try to blame this on weak oil prices. This is all about the economy and economic weakness as these are economically sensitive stocks and that is why they are suffering.

Related stocks: FedEx Corporation (FDX), Union Pacific Corporation (UNP), United Parcel Service, Inc. (UPS), Norfolk Southern Corp. (NSC), CSX Corporation (CSX)

Peter Schiff is an American businessman, investment broker and financial commentator. Schiff is the CEO and chief global strategist of Euro Pacific Capital Inc.

Crude Oil, Stock Markets Are Being Impacted By A Weaker Economy

The Transports were the weakest index of the year. I think they were down about 17 percent. in 2015. Now, that is the index that is the biggest beneficiary of lower oil prices. So clearly if the Transports were the weakest of the indexes, the weakness cannot be because of the cheap oil. It has got to be another reason. And again I think it has to do with the economy. Oil is being impacted by the weakness of the economy and so are economically sensitive stocks.

Related stocks: Union Pacific Corporation (UNP), FedEx Corporation (FDX), United Parcel Service, Inc. (UPS), Norfolk Southern Corp. (NSC), CSX Corporation (CSX)

Peter Schiff is an American businessman, investment broker and financial commentator. Schiff is the CEO and chief global strategist of Euro Pacific Capital Inc.