Stocks: Sell In May And Go Away

There is an old Wall Street adage sell in May and go away and the reason for that saying is that seasonally the market tends to produce better returns in the first four months of the year January through April and then historically beginning in May and throughout the summer the market could generally go down and I think the time to buy back in is typically September , October.

you know there's a lot of big down days down in September, October so kind of get out of the market in May, go away and then come back later in the year and buy back what you sold.

Well today was May 1st and it looked like a lot of people weren't gonna wait that long and they were quick to sell.

The Only Thing That Can Stop A Bear Market

I do think there's a good chance that in February we began a long overdue bear market. Technically we haven't gone down 20 percent so Wall Street still calls it a correction and recently we've had a bit of rally which to me looks like the correction in the bear market.

The only thing that would stop the bear market from actually materializing would be a change of policy by the Federal Reserve which I wouldn't rule out because I do expect the Fed to change policy.

I expect the Federal Reserve to reverse the rate hikes and to go back to zero interest rates. I expect the Fed to launch another round of quantitative easing, QE4. So if they do that before we're in an official bear market then we may never have an official bear market so I just don't know how long the Fed is gonna wait before showing its hand.

Stocks: This Is A Bear Market

It looks like the period of relative calm in the markets is over and the next leg down has begun. 

This is a bear market, the upward move was the correction. It was the first correction in this young bear market that technically is not a bear market yet because we're not down 20 percent but that's only a matter of time before people call the bear market what it is.

Global Debt Has Reached Record Levels

Global debt has reached record levels. According to a recent International Monetary Fund (IMF) report, the world has amassed $164 trillion of debt. Three countries account for half of the total global debt – the US, China and Japan.

Petroyuan Clould Be The Death Blow For The U.S. Dollar

As an article at the Gold Telegraph starkly put it, “the rise of the petroyuan could be the death blow for the U.S. Dollar.”

Podcast: The Calm Before The Storm

Peter Schiff discusses the state of the economy and his market outlook on his most recent podcast.