Another Financial Crisis?

Why is Jerome Powell confident that he can tighten policy enough to reduce inflation from 8.5% to 2% without causing another financial crisis? Thanks to the Fed's easy money, which created the inflation problem, the current debt bubble is much larger than the one that popped in 2008.

Powell Doesn't Realize How Vulnerable The U.S. Economy Is

Jerome Powell doesn't realize how vulnerable the U.S. economy is to higher interest rates as he thinks Fed policies of ZIRP and QE solved the problems exposed by the 2008 financial crisis. Those policies only made the problems worse, while postponing and exacerbating the consequences.

Bitcoin: "Bag Holders"

Because Bitcoin whales succeeded in pumping Bitcoin close to $70,000, it's much easier for them to unload more worthless Bitcoin at $20,000, as those suckers who are buying think they're getting a bargain. These "bargain" hunters averaging down will eventually be known as bag holders.

German Inflation At A 60-Year High!

With official year-on-year (YoY) German inflation at 8.7%, a 60-year high and headed higher, the Euro experiment is clearly a failure. It's not the new Deutsch Mark, it's the new Italian Lira. Germany needs to leave the Euro Zone and really build back better by returning to a gold-backed mark. Gexit!

"German Inflation Hits 60-Year-High, 'Worse To Come', Says Allianz" - in ZeroHedge

Market Update: Bitcoin, Crude Oil, Gold

Bitcoin:

CNBC is so excited about Bitcoin's rise back above $32,000. When Bitcoin is falling

CNBC barely talks about it. But when it makes a big move up they can't stop talking about it. 

Crude Oil:

Crude Oil just hit $117 per barrel. It looks like the market is poised to finally reflect a Russian sanctions premium that should send the price to $150 per barrel by year-end. Next year the price could easily hit $200. But don't worry. America's super strong economy can handle it.

Gold:

Gold's failure to rise despite mounting evidence that inflation is getting worse doesn't mean gold is no longer an inflation hedge. It reflects investor's expectations that higher inflation means the Fed will fight harder to contain it. Investors are in for a rude awakening.

Bitcoin: The Big Money Is Selling

Everything went perfectly for Bitcoin over the past year. Non-stop positive media coverage, unprecedented advertising blitz, mega conferences, growing political support, celebrity endorsements, mainstream adoption, institutional investment, ETFs, NFTs, El Salvador, inflation, war, economic sanctions, etc. 

Yet despite all the hype and good news the price of Bitcoin is down 38% Year on Year (YOY). If none of this was sufficient to send the price of Bitcoin higher, what will? Wake up HODLers. You're being played. The big money is selling. It's a classic pump and dump!

Inflation: The Genie Has Never Been Further From The Bottle!

The saying "don't let the inflation genie out of the bottle didn't evolve for no reason. The Federal Reserve has never waited so long to fight inflation, nor perused a more inflationary monetary policy before picking the fight. As a result the genie has never been further from the bottle!

Fed Talk: "Balance Sheet Reduction Will Be Rapid"

Brainard's assertion that Federal Reserve’s balance sheet reduction will be rapid rests on her false assumption that the U.S. economy remains strong throughout the process. If the Federal Reserve follows through with this threat bonds will crash, taking the stock market and the economy down with it!

The Need To Move Reserve Assets From US Dollars To Gold

Traders selling gold on the prospect of a resolution to the Russian-Ukrainian war don't understand why buyers are accumulating. It's not about the war. It's about inflation. But sanctions, even if lifted, have highlighted the need to move reserve assets from dollars to gold.

The Federal Reserve Has No Excuse To Raise Interest Rates This Slowly

The headline PCE Index, the Fed's favorite inflation measure, as it understates it the most, surged 6.4% YoY, the biggest rise since 1982. Since even this flawed measure is more than triple the Fed's 2% target, the Federal Reserve has no excuse for raising rates this slowly or delaying quantitive tightening (QT).

Bonds Are Setting Up For Historic Crash

The Treasury yield curve is now inverted from the 2-year to the 30-year. Bonds are setting up for a historic crash when investors discover that a recession doesn't guarantee the end of high inflation. Inflation is not only here to stay, but the next recession will make it worse!

Bitcoin Isn't An Inflation Hedge

Bitcoin isn't an inflation hedge. Sure its price went up in the past, but there's no assurance that its price will rise in the future just because the price of goods or services rise. Bitcoin's price has no relationship to the price of anything that people actually need or use!

The Reason Why CNBC Loves Bitcoin So Much

Yields Are Rising Due To Higher Inflation

Rising nominal bond yields continue to weigh on gold, even though yields are rising due to higher inflation, not stronger economic growth. In fact, nominal yields are rising more slowly than inflation, so real yields are actually collapsing. This is extremely bullish for gold!

The Rise In Oil Prices Is Just Starting!

The price of crude oil is closing in on $80 barrel, trading above $79 for the first time in 7 years. But if you look at a chart this move is only just getting started. The parabolic move higher likely won't kick in until we take out $150 per barrel. That might happen as soon as 2022.

Growth Is Slowing Rapidly

Yesterday the Atlanta Fed slashed its forecast for Q3 GDP from 2.3 percent to 1.3 percent. Back in June its forecast for Q3 growth exceeded 7 percent! Growth is slowing rapidly just as consumer prices are rising substantially. Stagflation is already a reality. I dare the Federal Reserve to taper. Buy gold!

The U.S. Has No Ability Or Intention Of Ever Repaying The Debt

The reason a failure to raise the Debt Ceiling will lead to a default on the National Debt is that the U.S. has no ability or intention of ever repaying the debt. It will only borrow to keep the Ponzi scheme going until lenders wise up and dump their Treasuries and U.S. dollars.

Inflation In New Cars

Despite reporting falling sales, General Motors (GM) reported that average selling prices rose to $47,467, a 20 percent increase over the past year. That's ten times the Fed's official 2% inflation target. If prices rise another 20 percent this year, the average new General Motors (GM) car will set you back $57,000. Thanks to the Federal Reserve.

There Is Nothing Transitory About This Inflation!

For the ninth consecutive month, producer prices rose more than expected. The .7% jump resulted in a 8.3% year-on-year (YOY) gain. 

Excluding food and energy the rise was 7.3 percent! So far in 2021 the PPI is up 7 percent. Annualized the rise equates to 10.5 percent. There is nothing transitory about this inflation!

Bitcoin: Horrible Technicals

Horrible week technically for Bitcoin. GBTC had an outside reversal week. It took out the prior week's high, then closed below the prior week's low. The pattern may repeat on a monthly chart too. GBTC already took out the August high. Now it just needs to closed below the August low.

Central Banks Keep Buying Gold

Central banks globally added another net 56.7 tons of gold to their reserves in May as more banks dip into the gold market, according to the latest data compiled by the World Gold Council.

Gold-buying by central banks slowed last year from the record pace we saw in 2018 and 2019. That trend has continued into 2021, but buying is ahead of last year’s pace as many countries continue to load up on the yellow metal.


-- in Schiff Gold

Video: Labor Market, Inflation and Gold

 

• Inflation spilling into the labor market. 
• Pressures pushing dollar down and costs up. 
• What does Basel III mean for gold? 
• CNBC pundits are as clueless now as they were in 2006 and 2007.

Inflation Forces Retailers To Sharply Increase Prices

As inflation forces all retailers to sharply raise their prices look for lots of excuses as to why it's happening. But the biggest excuses will come from the government and the Federal Reserve, that will blame everything and everyone but their own policies.

You Don't Buy Gold To Get Rich

You don't buy gold to get rich. You buy gold to stay rich. Most people who are buying Bitcoin are doing so to get rich. The problem with putting too much money into something that has the potential to make you rich is that it also has an even greater potential to make you poor.

Bitcoin: Supply & Demand Dynamics

The price of Bitcoin is set by supply and demand. The problem for Bitcoin HODLers is that the future supply of people who own Bitcoin and need to sell will exceed the demand from people who don't own Bitcoin and want to buy. All Bitcoin owners need to sell. No one needs to buy.

Fed Policy Has Failed To Produce Real Economic Growth

The Senior Economic Reporter on CNBC claims the weak jobs report vindicates Fed policy. It actually confirms the opposite. Fed policy has failed to produce real economic growth. April's anemic Jobs Report proves the Federal Reserve only succeeded in creating inflation and blowing bubbles.

Bitcoin & Gold

Gold falling and Bitcoin rising in the face of massive money printing doesn't mean Bitcoin has replaced gold as the preferred store of value. In reality, investors are not buying gold because they're not worried about inflation. They're confident the Federal Reserve has it under control.

Inflation Is A Big Threat

Those who think inflation isn't a threat and the Federal Reserve will stay loose are wrong. Those who think inflation is a threat and the Federal Reserve will tighten are wrong. Inflation is a bigger threat than the latter thinks, but the Federal Reserve will ease further to support asset prices and consumption.

Also exploding federal budget deficits, and a new housing bubble, leaves both the public and private sector extremely vulnerable to rising interest rates. So as inflation expectations push rates up, the Federal Reserve will crank up QE to push them back down to prevent a financial crisis.

High Inflation Is Bullish For Gold, Bearish For Nasdaq Stocks!

While high inflation is very bullish for gold, historically it has been very bearish for high-multiple growth stocks. Instead of dumping their gold and gold mining stocks due to rising inflation and higher bond yields, investors should be selling NASDAQ stocks.

Cryptos: There's No Substantive Difference Between Bitcoin and Dogecoin

All of those Bitcoin bugs, like Novogratz criticizing Elon Musk for promoting Dogecoin can't see the irony that there is no substantive difference between Bitcoin and Dogecoin. In fact, Dogecoin, despite its being started as a joke, is arguably the superior crypto currency!