U.S. Economy: The Recovery is Ending

Manufacturing is already in a recession. Look at the ISM number that came out last week at a 6 year low. Even the Services sector ISM came way below estimates. Retails sales have been abysmal, consumer confidence is going down. All signs point that the recovery is ending.

Markets: Interest Rate Hike, Tightening Cycle

If we actually get an interest rate hike next week that is the only interest rate hike we re going to get from the Federal Reserve. It is not going to be the beginning of the tightening cycle, it is going to be the end of the tightening cycle which actually begun a couple of years ago when they first started talking about the taper.  That was the beginning of the tightening cycle and I think the first official rate hike, if we actually get one, is going to be the end of the process.

I Expect The Dollar To Be Weaker

As I have been saying, we have the biggest problems in the United States and so I do expect the U.S. Dollar to be weaker than these other fiat currencies and when they are sinking but the dollar is sinking faster that is when the price of gold can really take off. (SPDR Gold Trust ETF (GLD))