China Is Accumulating Gold Quietly and Secretly

I think China is deliberately underreporting their gold holdings. I think they are accumulating more and more gold (SPDR Gold Trust ETF (GLD)), quietly and maybe secretly because I do think that ultimately that is their intention, to have a gold backed Yuan becoming the predominant currency in the world.

Fed: The Only Reason They May Raise Interest Rates

If they are really dependent on the economic data, its all been bad. The data has been consistently bad. If they are really data dependent they should not be raising interest rates.

The only reason they may raise interest rates is because they feel they have to because they are worried that the market might begin to get suspicious of the game they are playing if they do not move.

Dip In Gold Is A Buying Opportunity

The price of gold (SPDR Gold Trust ETF (GLD)) has fallen back below 1100 dollars. In fact the price of gold has declined almost one hundred dollars in the last 30 days. We are back down in the vicinity of the August low. I think this is an opportunity for those who thought that the rally was getting away from you.

The Case Against A December Rate Hike

Is the Federal Reserve really going to raise rates in December? If they do hike rates and the economy falls apart, they are going to say, "You see, they hiked rates, they did it, they ruined the economy! The Fed did a mistake by raising interest rates."

They do not want to risk that. If they never raised rates and the economy turns down, they will think they were smart.

The Fed Is About To Run Into A Brick Wall

Recessions do not start with layoffs. First the economy turns down and then companies layoff. Companies do not just start laying off people for no reason. Employees react to the recession. The economy turns down, sales turn down, and then businesses start to lay off. Then these layoffs make the existing recession even worse.

You can`t just look at the unemployment numbers and make monetary policy from that as if that is the data that really counts. The Federal Reserve wants to make economic policy looking into the rearview mirror. They are about to run into a brick wall!

Economic Data Is Consistent With The Beginning Of A Recession

The economic data is awful. This data is consistent with the beginning of a recession. This is when the Federal Reserve typically would be easing monetary policy but the problem is they never tightened. The recession has already started and they never finished fighting the last one.