We Are Going To Be Back In Official Recession Or Close Enough Soon

Long before the Federal Reserve gets to 1.00% rates if they actually start in December, we are going to be back in official recession or close enough to it that the Federal Reserve is going to have to stimulate the economy again.

December Meeting: A Rate Hike If The Market Is Near Record Highs

If the market is near record highs in the day before the meeting (in December) and it looks like as if everybody is OK with a tiny interest rate hike, they might do it.

Tickers: SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF (DIA), SPDR S&P 500 Index ETF (SPY), Nasdaq 100 Index ETF (QQQ)

Industrial Production: More Signs Of A Recession

Industrial Production, this is the 9th monthly drop in the last 10 months. This is the weakest this series has been since January 2010. How many signs of a recession does the Federal Reserve need?

The Safest Thing For The Federal Reserve To Do

The safest thing for the Federal reserve to do given the game that they are playing is to not raise interest rates in December and keep pretending that they are going to. Because so far, so good. It is working like a charm!

Empire State Manufacturing: Biggest Losing Streak Outside of a Recession

This is the fourth straight month in a row that it`s been down and all of the components were very weak. This is the biggest losing streak for this index outside of a recession. So, maybe we are in a recession and that is why we are getting readings that are consistent with a recession or the recovery is so weak that its like a recession.

The Federal Reserve Will Find An Excuse Not To Raise Rates

With the Dollar rallying, commodity prices falling, the Federal Reserve has another reason to say, Well, you know, inflation is too low, we do not have meet our inflation goal and it can easily get away without raising interest rates in December.