The Fed Is Going To Look Ridiculous For Having Raised Rates

They waited so long to raise interest rates that the economy is already going into recession on its own without any help from the Federal Reserve. If the Federal Reserve now gives it a push by raising interest rates even slightly, we are going into recession that much quicker and the Federal Reserve is going to look ridiculous for having raised interest rates so close to the beginning of the recession.

Gold: Hedge Funds Are The Most Short They Have Ever Been

By the way, hedge funds are the most they have ever been in Gold right now, the least long, the most short, their net short position.

Obviously everybody who shorted gold, if you shorted it over the last few years, you are ahead. That trade is a winner for everybody. Let`s see what happens if the price of gold reverses between now and the end of the year  and we get a lot of hedge funds that want to book those profits. We will see how much profit remains to be booked if all the shorts at once decide to cover because I think a lot of people sitting on paper profits are going to find these paper profits difficult to realize when everybody is trying to realize them at the same time.

Meanwhile in the physical gold world the demand for gold continues to hit records as we are getting reports from the mints about what demand is for actual physical silver and gold coins.

U.S. Economy: Consumers Aren`t Confident

This was the lowest level for Consumer Confidence in 14 months. The Federal Reserve is just getting ready to raise interest rates as the economy is supposedly ready for it yet consumer confidence is at 14 month lows.

Consumers were a lot more confident 14 months ago when the Federal Reserve said they could not raise interest rates but now they are saying, "Everything is perfect, we are going to raise interest rates" and they are getting economic data that suggests that thy should be doing the opposite!

Corporate Profits Are Declining

Buried in that GDP report were some other very bad numbers. For example, there was a 4.7 percent decline in corporate profits during the quarter. That is the biggest decline in corporate profits since 2009!

The Manufacturing Recession Is Already Here

We got 52.6 on the Manufacturing PMI and that was the lowest number in 2 years. I have been talking about this for a long time on the podcast. The manufacturing recession is already here.

The mainstream will acknowledge this but they do not even think it matters. They think that manufacturing is so small a part of the economy that it does not really matter. Admitting that is such a small part of the economy is part of the problem. It cannot be a small part of the economy! The fact that it is a small part of the economy is a problem in and of itself.

A Bullish Case For Gold

Gold (SPDR Gold Trust ETF (GLD)) failed to rally in the wake of the terrorist attack so the shorts came back in. But everybody has piled short as they are all waiting for the Federal Reserve to hike rates. This is the most anticipated rate hike in the history of interest rate hikes and again one and done is not gonna cut it. The Federal Reserve is going to need to raise interest rates substantially to validate this move in the dollar but they can`t. They can`t validate it because any significant move up in interest rates would precipitate a financial crisis.