Gold Stocks: Investors Are Not Believing In The Gold Rally

Gold (SPDR Gold Trust ETF (GLD)) continues to rise. It was up again today (yesterday). This is the highest gold has been since, I think, mid April we got above 1270.00 intraday, and we closed just a hair below it. 

But continuing the trend gold stocks were down. I think that Market Vectors Gold Miners ETF (GDX) was barely positive today (yesterday), the Market Vectors Junior Gold Miners ETF (GDXJ)  was down again. 

So gold stocks continued to trade weak in the face of rising gold prices and again what this has been telling me because this has been going on now for quite some time, is that the investors do not believe this rally because if they believed it they would be bidding up gold stocks.

We Have A Reverse Bubble In Gold

Big banks simply pursue their own self-interest and certainly Wall Street does not want the price of gold going up they want the price of stocks going up, they want the price of bonds going up that's where they generate all their fees so they have a vested interest in being negative gold. 

But it's also a kind of a self-perpetuating prophecy if they keep selling into the rallies and you have so much gold that trades in paper markets where it's not real, you have people buying gold from people who don't even have it and they're selling gold they don't own to people who don't want it but you have this huge paper market and there's a lot of selling pressure there. 

But I think ultimately the price of gold is going way up and the fact that maybe it's suppressed maybe it's intentional maybe it's just a result of people pursuing what they think is right but all bubbles are like that. You had bubbles in the dot-coms, you had bubbles in the housing market. 

This is almost like a reverse bubble in gold. We have a bubble in fiat currencies, we have a bubble in the US Dollar and when that bubble pops, those currencies are going to crash and you're going to see the collapse in the price of gold because the price of gold rising will be the collapse of the fiat currencies.

Trump: Tariffs On German Cars?

If they're going to slap tariffs on cars made by Germans it's because the government is trying to say we want a different outcome than the outcome that the free market is determining. In the free market Americans are choosing to buy these German cars, we don't want them to make that choice we want to alter the free market by artificially raising the cost of buying a German car relative to the cost of buying a different car. And now we have a different outcome not the outcome that would be determined by the free market but the outcome that is determined as a result of government intervention. (General Motors (GM), Ford (F), Tesla Motors (TSLA), BMW)

Markets: US Dollar, Gold and Interest Rates

If the Federal Reserve doesn't raise interest rates in June it is going to shock the markets. In fact I think the US Dollar is poised to decline even if the Federal Reserve raises interest rates. I think gold (SPDR Gold Trust ETF (GLD)) is poised to rise even if the Federal Reserve raises interest rates but if it doesn't obviously those moves will be even bigger because the markets are completely prepared for a another hike.

U.S. Economy: Recent Weakness Likely To Persist

The economic data that has come out recently including this week has been pretty bad on balance in fact the data that we're getting confirms to me that rather than being transitory the weakness in the first quarter is likely to continue.

Markets: Gold, Silver, US Stocks

So far in 2017 the S&P 500 Index (SPDR S&P 500 Index ETF (SPY)) is up just under 7 percent but the price of gold (SPDR Gold Trust ETF (GLD)) and silver (iShares Silver ETF (SLV)) are up about 7.5%

Now despite the fact that both precious metals and the US stock market have performed about the same thus far in 2017, Americans are rushing to buy US stocks yet they're completely ignoring precious metals. This despite the fact that the Dow Jones Industrials (DJIA) or the S&P 500 Index (SPDR S&P 500 Index ETF (SPY)) is at an all-time record high and the valuations are clearly in bubbled territory. Yet when it comes to gold and silver even though they're doing well this year, gold prices are about 30 percent below their peak price in 2011 and silver is better than 60 percent below its peak price. 

So despite the fact that gold and silver are outperforming the S&P 500 Index (SPDR S&P 500 Index ETF (SPY)) this year they have a much further way to go to get back to their highs.