Bitcoin, Gold and Gold Mining Stocks

 Some have postulated that investors are selling gold and buying Bitcoin. Since they have nothing in common, I doubt that's happening. But some speculators may be selling gold stocks and buying GBTC, with gold stocks falling as gold rises, and GBTC trading up to a 25% premium.

Unlike Bitcoin and gold, GBTC and gold ming stocks do have something in common. GBTC is a way to speculate on the future price of Bitcoin, and gold stocks are a way to speculate on the future price of gold. The smarter trade is to drop GBTC and pick up some gold mining stocks.

Inflationary Pressures Are Building

Inflationary pressures are building and investors are bidding up prices of inflation sensitive stocks. But they're not buying gold stocks yet as investors still expect the Federal Reserve to fight inflation by raising interest rates. But the Federal Reserve will surrender to inflation without a fight.

Fighting Inflation With Inflation

It's amazing that markets have calmly accepted the widely-held belief that the Federal Reserve will respond to rising inflation expectations by printing even more money to buy bonds to keep yields from rising. Fighting inflation with inflation guarantees inflation wins and the dollar loses.

Bitcoin: A Massive Double Top?

Bitcoin bulls are celebrating because after 3 years Bitcoin finally managed to eke out a new high. But what makes them so sure that this marginal new high doesn't constitute a massive double top? Perhaps they should put away the champagne until an actual breakout is confirmed.

Bond Investors Are Worried About Stagflation

A weaker than expected November jobs report is sending Treasury yields higher, not lower. This means bond investors are worried about stagflation. The weaker the economy gets, the more inflation the Federal Reserve creates to stimulate it and to buy the excess Treasuries investors are dumping.

Bitcoin's Meteoric Rise

Bitcoin bulls argue that Bitcoin's meteoric rise means that major institutions that once shunned Bitcoin now have no choice but to hold their noses and buy it. Not only does Bitcoin's past performance not guarantee its future success, it more likely assures its future failure.