The Fed Is About To Run Into A Brick Wall

Recessions do not start with layoffs. First the economy turns down and then companies layoff. Companies do not just start laying off people for no reason. Employees react to the recession. The economy turns down, sales turn down, and then businesses start to lay off. Then these layoffs make the existing recession even worse.

You can`t just look at the unemployment numbers and make monetary policy from that as if that is the data that really counts. The Federal Reserve wants to make economic policy looking into the rearview mirror. They are about to run into a brick wall!

Economic Data Is Consistent With The Beginning Of A Recession

The economic data is awful. This data is consistent with the beginning of a recession. This is when the Federal Reserve typically would be easing monetary policy but the problem is they never tightened. The recession has already started and they never finished fighting the last one.

U.S. Economy: All Of The Evidence Is Flashing Recession

All of the evidence is flashing recession. The consumers are running out of money, the inventories are piling up unsold on the shelves, retail sales are plunging, retailers stocks are crashing. The recession is beginning if it hash`t already begun.

Stocks: Major Retailers Are Selling Off

All these stocks are going down, even the high end. Look at Tiffany (TIF), it is trading at a 52 week low. All the major retailers are hitting multi year lows.

Related stocks: Macys (M), Wal-Mart (WMT), Nordstrom (JWN)

Retailers: Weak, Weak Sales Across The Board!

Think about this. We are getting Wal-Mart (WMT) which is the mass retailer where everyone is shopping on a budget. They had horrible numbers.

Then you have probably the largest department store, Macy`s (M), which is, you know, not high end but higher end, kind of mid-market, nicer stuff, more expensive stuff than Wal-Mart (WMT). They had horrible numbers.

And then you have Neiman Marcus which is the high end, probably the biggest high end retailer in the country, they had horrible numbers too!

Its across the board weak, weak sales!

Peter Schiff is an American businessman, investment broker and financial commentator. Schiff is the CEO and chief global strategist of Euro Pacific Capital Inc.

A Buying Opportunity In Gold & Gold Stocks

These currency speculators really believe the Federal Reserve and they just sold off the price of gold, they brought down the price of gold stocks. That is an opportunity, that is a buying opportunity for the few people that actually recognize what is really going on.

Stocks: Goldcorp (GG), Newmont Mining (NEM), Barrick Gold (ABX)

ETF`s: Market Vectors Gold Miners ETF (GDX), SPDR Gold Trust ETF (GLD)

Peter Schiff is an American businessman, investment broker and financial commentator. Schiff is the CEO and chief global strategist of Euro Pacific Capital Inc.