Jul 26, 2018

The Next Recession

It's not that the inversion of the yield curve causes the recession. It's that's that long rates start to fall as investors start to look beyond the expansion to the next recession and they start pricing in the next round of rate cuts.

So it's not that the inversion causes the recession it simply is a good indicator that a recession is coming so you don't need an inverted yield curve to get a recession and we're gonna have a recession this time without the yield curve inverting given how little headway the Federal Reserve was able to make in normalizing interest rates.