US Dollar: The Decline Has Just Begun

The US Dollar continues its losing streak. The US Dollar Index was down for the 8th time in nine days. The US Dollar Index actually traded below 97 for the first time since Donald Trump was elected President, so we have wiped out 100 percent of the ill-gotten dollar gains that were racked up in the wake of that victory. and if you remember when the dollar was rallying as a result of the Trump victory I said it was a sucker's rally that it was a head-fake rally and sure enough that's exactly what it was but the US Dollar decline has only just begun.

SALT Conference: Gundlach on Stocks

His conclusion was that the US stocks are very expensive and that people should sell US stocks and invest in foreign stocks. In particular Gundlach likes the emerging markets. He was also very bearish on the dollar saying the same kind of stuff as me saying that the crowd is wrong, that this is a crowded trade (that the US Dollar is going to go up) because the Federal Reserve raising rates is wrong.

Markets: Trump Scandal, A Crash In Brazil

So this should rattle confidence as should the drop in the stock market if it continues. But despite that this drop is not very large, I mean look at what's happening in Brazil.  The Brazilian market is getting obliterated, it's crashed, I mean you got a lot of these Brazilian stocks today are down 10 to 20 percent based on a political scandal in Brazil where they they have a recording of the president of Brazil offering a bribe and they've got that on audio recording. 

The market is crashing because they're calling for resignation or impeachment there now of course it's the same problem here although I guess they've got a better case against the Brazilian president.

This shows you what can actually happen with a market that's smaller when everybody wants to get through the same door at the same time, the liquidity is not there and prices collapse.

The same thing could eventually happen to the United States but of course if we had a drop today like they're experiencing the Brazil the Federal Reserve would be out there, they would be cutting rates they would be telegraphic QE4 they would be doing whatever they could to try to reverse the decline in the market. (SPDR S&P 500 Index ETF (SPY), SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF (DIA), Nasdaq 100 Index ETF (QQQ), iShares MSCI Brazil Index (ETF) (EWZ))