Aug 21, 2018

The Weak Dollar Policy

It should be obvious that Donald Trump has a weak dollar policy whether he wants to name it a weak dollar policy or not.

Jul 26, 2018

The Next Recession

It's not that the inversion of the yield curve causes the recession. It's that's that long rates start to fall as investors start to look beyond the expansion to the next recession and they start pricing in the next round of rate cuts.

So it's not that the inversion causes the recession it simply is a good indicator that a recession is coming so you don't need an inverted yield curve to get a recession and we're gonna have a recession this time without the yield curve inverting given how little headway the Federal Reserve was able to make in normalizing interest rates.

Jul 23, 2018

The Catalyst For The US Dollar Drop

The catalyst today for the US Dollar sharp reversal was more tweets from President Trump where he is expressing anger not only at the Federal Reserve right or not only at the ECB and at the Bank of China because he is accusing both Europe and China of being currency manipulators of taking advantage of us by weakening their currencies.

This was probably one of the biggest down days for the US Dollar this year - across the board weakness which is likely to continue. Believe me we're gonna have days that are gonna be much much weaker than this, I believe later in the year and of course next year and the year after that I think the dollar is gonna get particularly beaten up. 

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