Between 1800 and 1900 the U.S Consumer Prices Index (CPI) fell by 50 percent. So we had 100 years of "deflation." This includes the gilded age, the strongest period of economic growth in U.S. history. If falling consumer prices were good then, why does the Federal Reserve think they would be such a problem now?
May 2, 2019
Apr 29, 2019
Tesla (TSLA): Things Have Been Going Wrong For A Long Time
Peter Schiff was recently on RT.com discussing Tesla (TSLA) stock:
"Things have been
going a lot wrong for a long time at
Tesla when it comes to profitability. So, it's really not about one quarter it's
about whether or not you're gonna make
the leap of faith that Tesla is actually
going to make a profitable company out
of its business. Right now it's
losing a lot of money and what has to
happen to justify the current share
price is that they have to make a profit
but they have to do it at a large enough
scale to justify this valuation and I
think that's going to be a very
difficult thing for Tesla."
Apr 26, 2019
GDP Data: Don't Rule Out A 2019 Recession
Inflation Numbers: Something Does Not Add Up!
The government wants us to believe that the annualized increase in the cost of living in Q1 2019 was just 0.9%. Yet the price of oil rose by an annualized rate of over 130% during that quarter! Either the price of everything else plunged, or something doesn't add up!
Bond Market, Gold & The Federal Reserve
The bond market and gold are rising, as the US Dollar falls, because the supposed collapse in the inflation rate in Q1 despite a 130% annualized rise in the price of oil, gives the Federal Reserve yet another excuse to remain patient on future interest rate hikes.
Interest Rate Cuts, Return to QE
If oil prices keep rising, maybe inflation will fall so much that the dreaded deflation risk will rear its ugly head. Then Trump may get his wish, as the Federal Reserve will have an excuse to cut interest rates and return to QE!
Don't Rule Out A 2019 Recession
The near 17% drop in Q1 energy prices, despite a 33% surge in oil prices, resulted from the sharp fall in oil prices the previous quarter. This, plus one-off positive contributions from inventories and trade, will likely be reversed in Q2. Don't rule out a 2019 recession.
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