The Stock Market Is Sensing That The Fed Is "On Pause"

I think the stock market is sensing that this means the Federal Reserve is on pause, which of course it is because this really is not a good number regardless of the way people want to spin it.

Peter Schiff is an American businessman, investment broker and financial commentator. Schiff is the CEO and chief global strategist of Euro Pacific Capital Inc.

The Jobs Report Is Awful Beneath The Surface

If you look beneath a very superficial layer, what you reveal is a very ugly picture when it comes to the April jobs report. But nobody wants to do that. They don`t want to bother or they are afraid of what they might see.

Peter Schiff is an American businessman, investment broker and financial commentator. Schiff is the CEO and chief global strategist of Euro Pacific Capital Inc.

Gold: Some Overhead Resistance Above 1,200 Dollars

Gold is just below 1200 dollars an ounce. Its really been banging up and down. Every time it gets above 1200 they seem to smash it back down but of course whenever they smash it back down the buyers show up, so they really can`t break the market but there is still an overhead resistance to keep it from exploding.

But I think eventually the buying is going to overtake the selling and we will run out of sellers in the gold market and when it finally goes up, it is going to go up in a rather spectacular way.

Peter Schiff is an American businessman, investment broker and financial commentator. Schiff is the CEO and chief global strategist of Euro Pacific Capital Inc.

Video: Why Gold Will Go Ballistic

Peter Schiff is an American businessman, investment broker and financial commentator. Schiff is the CEO and chief global strategist of Euro Pacific Capital Inc.

Stock Market: A Schizophrenic Type Market

The Dow Jones Industrials which was down about 200 points on Thursday, was up 183 points on Friday. The Nasdaq was down 80-85 points and recouped 64 points, so a real schizophrenic type market. I think the players are still ignoring reality and still clinging to the fantasy of a recovering U.S. Economy.

Peter Schiff is an American businessman, investment broker and financial commentator. Schiff is the CEO and chief global strategist of Euro Pacific Capital Inc.

U.S. Economy: An Alarming Ratio

The inventories to sales ratio right now is the highest since the Great Recession of 2008-2009. What does that mean going forward? It means that businesses are already loaded up with inventory, they have excess inventory, they can`t sell it. They are not going to buy any more.

Peter Schiff is an American businessman, investment broker and financial commentator. Schiff is the CEO and chief global strategist of Euro Pacific Capital Inc.

U.S. Economy: GDP Report Is Even Weaker Than It Seems

If you look beneath the surface of this rather meager GDP number, it gets worse.

Here is number 1: The Deflator. The government always deflates the nominal GDP by the inflation rate because they want to take the inflation out of the numbers to see what is really going on. That is the real GDP. So normally nominal GDP has to be subtracted, you subtract the deflator from your nominal GDP to arrive at your real GDP. Not this time. Because the government assumed inflation was a negative 0.1%. Negative! Meaning that prices dropped. So instead of taking the nominal number and deflating it, they took the nominal number and inflated it!

Peter Schiff is an American businessman, investment broker and financial commentator. Schiff is the CEO and chief global strategist of Euro Pacific Capital Inc.

A Bearish Case For Apple (AAPL)

Apple (AAPL) is basically single handedly powering the entire Nasdaq. All the earnings growth is coming from Apple (AAPL). But of course it is going to be harder over time for Apple (AAPL) to maintain that type of growth and those margins going forward because you have so many companies around the world competing for share in that market.

Peter Schiff is an American businessman, investment broker and financial commentator. Schiff is the CEO and chief global strategist of Euro Pacific Capital Inc.

Economic Data, Stocks & Foreign Exchange

The stock market continues to ignore all of the bad news that is reigning in on the U.S. Economy. The bad news is not being ignored in the forex markets although I do believe that the reaction should be bigger and will be bigger as far as the dollar declining as the economic data continues to disappoint.

Peter Schiff is an American businessman, investment broker and financial commentator. Schiff is the CEO and chief global strategist of Euro Pacific Capital Inc.

Canadian Dollar Outlook

It looks like the Canadian Dollar has in fact bottomed. I have been talking about that for a while. So there could be a very big rally going forward and not only in that currency but in several other currencies as well that are likely going to be experienced "good news" in the form of higher inflation and as a result they are going to be raising their interest rates.

Peter Schiff is an American businessman, investment broker and financial commentator. Schiff is the CEO and chief global strategist of Euro Pacific Capital Inc.

"W" Bottom In The Oil Price

I have been talking about the rebound in oil prices. This week oil prices moved above 57 dollars. It may not sound like a lot, as we were paying 100 dollars a barrel but oil bottomed out at 42. So, percentage wise, that`s a pretty big move. And I think we are forming a very, very sizable "W" bottom in the oil price.

Peter Schiff is an American businessman, investment broker and financial commentator. Schiff is the CEO and chief global strategist of Euro Pacific Capital Inc.

The Consensus On The U.S. Economy Is Wrong

The markets have been volatile but the news again, what little did we have, has been bad. On Monday we got the Chicago Fed National Activity Index and once again everybody was expecting a bounce back because last month the index dropped. It was down 0.11% and the consensus was that it would rebound to +0.15%.

It always seems to be the consensus, I am sure they are looking for a bounce back in April...

Peter Schiff is an American businessman, investment broker and financial commentator. Schiff is the CEO and chief global strategist of Euro Pacific Capital Inc.

The Federal Reserve Will Tolerate Inflation

The Federal Reserve can talk about why it might raise interest rates in response to a higher inflation but it is never going to do it. It`s going to tolerate a higher inflation just like it tolerated the lower unemployment. They are going to move that 2 percent goal post further and further away every time they approach it but people still haven`t figured that out.

Peter Schiff is an American businessman, investment broker and financial commentator. Schiff is the CEO and chief global strategist of Euro Pacific Capital Inc.

U.S. Economy: More Bad Data (Housing Starts)

I want to get into some of the economic news that came out. The worst of it was on Thursday when it comes to the Housing Starts, where the numbers for both starts and permits were way, way below estimates.

Peter Schiff is an American businessman, investment broker and financial commentator. Schiff is the CEO and chief global strategist of Euro Pacific Capital Inc.

Video: When Will The Federal Reserve Raise Interest Rates?

Peter Schiff is an American businessman, investment broker and financial commentator. Schiff is the CEO and chief global strategist of Euro Pacific Capital Inc.

The Dollar Is Going To Fall Off The Edge Of A Cliff

A lot of people will be buried when this market turns and it is going to take no prisoners. When you get this turn in the forex markets, I think the dollar is going to fall off the edge of a cliff. You are going to see a lot of people losing a lot of money.

Peter Schiff is an American businessman, investment broker and financial commentator. Schiff is the CEO and chief global strategist of Euro Pacific Capital Inc.

Video: Forex Outlook

Peter Schiff is an American businessman, investment broker and financial commentator. Schiff is the CEO and chief global strategist of Euro Pacific Capital Inc.

Traders Are Wrong In Making Bullish Dollar Bets

Traders are continuing to make bullish dollar bets despite the fact that more and more weak economic data continues to pour in.

Peter Schiff is an American businessman, investment broker and financial commentator. Schiff is the CEO and chief global strategist of Euro Pacific Capital Inc.

Gold Is Strong Even In A Strong Dollar Environment

The ability of gold to strengthen in a strong dollar environment is a very positive sign because if gold is strong when the dollar is strong, then it will be really strong when the dollar is weak which ultimately is the future that waits the dollar.

Peter Schiff is an American businessman, investment broker and financial commentator. Schiff is the CEO and chief global strategist of Euro Pacific Capital Inc.

There Is A Lot Of Strength In The Gold Market

The euphoria with respect to the dollar and the U.S. Economy is not universally shared because if the people really were this optimistic on the dollar, gold would be going down.

The fact that gold outperformed the dollar, because gold was up in dollar terms this week, even when the dollar was up against other currencies, it means that gold was more appealing than the dollar. Because obviously people made more money in gold than they did in dollars, no matter which country you are from. I think this shows there is a lot of support, a lot of strength in the gold market that people do not appreciate.

Peter Schiff is an American businessman, investment broker and financial commentator. Schiff is the CEO and chief global strategist of Euro Pacific Capital Inc.

A Bullish Signal For Gold

Gold had very interesting week. It finished back above 1,200. In fact it finished Friday strong. Gold was up about 14 dollars, it closed at 1,207. What was interesting about the strength of gold is that the dollar had one of its best weeks in months. The dollar was up better than 3 percent on the week, closing the week near the highs, yet gold prices rose despite that. In terms of other currencies, gold was much stronger. In Euro terms, gold is very close to a 2-year high.

Peter Schiff is an American businessman, investment broker and financial commentator. Schiff is the CEO and chief global strategist of Euro Pacific Capital Inc.

European QE & QE4

The whole justification for European QE is, "Hey, look how well it succeeded in America."

But if we slip back into recession and have to do QE4, that is pretty strong evidence, at least to anybody who is thinking, that it did not work.

Peter Schiff is an American businessman, investment broker and financial commentator. Schiff is the CEO and chief global strategist of Euro Pacific Capital Inc.

U.S. Economy: The Fantasy Is Going To End

The weather excuse is going to run dry soon, we are going to get into Spring, it is April and it is not going to be as cold, its not going to snow but it may rain on the Wall Street`s excuse parade., that is for sure.

Because if we continue to get weak numbers as I expect, through out the Spring, then this all fantasy is going to come to an end.

Peter Schiff is an American businessman, investment broker and financial commentator. Schiff is the CEO and chief global strategist of Euro Pacific Capital Inc.

Markets: The Next Crisis

The crisis that is coming is going to be a dollar crisis. The dollar was down 1 percent in a thin holiday trading session immediately following the release of this very disappointing March jobs report. But the decline in the dollar is just getting started.

Peter Schiff is an American businessman, investment broker and financial commentator. Schiff is the CEO and chief global strategist of Euro Pacific Capital Inc.

U.S. Economy: A Dismal Jobs Report

The actual number was 126,000 jobs. That is it. That is the fewest number of jobs that we have created since December of 2013. That means we did better in the Polar Vortex during January, February and March of 2014. This was worse than those numbers.

Now to add insult to injury, they went backwards and they took 67,000 jobs away for the last 2 months.

Peter Schiff is an American businessman, investment broker and financial commentator. Schiff is the CEO and chief global strategist of Euro Pacific Capital Inc.

The U.S. Dollar Rally Is False

The U.S. dollar is still on the defensive, it has not imploded yet, but it is not making new highs anymore. And I think that the speculators that have been buying up dollars (and again, this is the most crowded trade, long the dollar, short just any other currency), the speculators who are on this trade are having a hard time acknowledging that it is not working out. It is very tough to break this trend. You get all this news that keep coming out that should be lifting lightbulbs on people`s heads.

The whole rationale for the strong dollar is based on a strong U.S. Economy and the Federal Reserve raising rates. Well, if the U.S. Economy is not strong and if we are getting back into recession, if the Federal Reserve is going to be doing QE4 then the U.S. Dollar`s rally is all false.

Peter Schiff is an American businessman, investment broker and financial commentator. Schiff is the CEO and chief global strategist of Euro Pacific Capital Inc.

Oil & Gold: Searching For A Bottom

Oil really looks like it is searching for a bottom just like Gold is searching for a bottom. We had a very, very strong day in Gold. The price of Gold is now back above that psychological important 1,200 level.

Peter Schiff is an American businessman, investment broker and financial commentator. Schiff is the CEO and chief global strategist of Euro Pacific Capital Inc.

Currency Markets Are Prepared For The Opposite Of What Is Going To Happen

I think what you are going to have is Central Banks increasing interest rates around the world at the time the Federal Reserve is doing QE4.

So, I think the currency markets are prepared for the opposite of what actually is going to happen. They think everybody in the world is going to be easing and the Federal Reserve is going to be the only central bank tightening. We will be doing QE4 and other central banks are going to be trying to put out the inflationary fire that they lit on purpose.

Peter Schiff is an American businessman, investment broker and financial commentator. Schiff is the CEO and chief global strategist of Euro Pacific Capital Inc.

Monetary Policy: It Will Backfire

I believe Central Banks are behaving very foolishly around the world. They are deliberately cutting interest rates in pursue of inflation as if that`s the Holy Grail of economics. I think this is going to backfire. I think the inflation rates around the world will end up being much higher than any central bank has bargained for.

Peter Schiff is an American businessman, investment broker and financial commentator. Schiff is the CEO and chief global strategist of Euro Pacific Capital Inc.

U.S. Economy: A Gigantic Bubble

The U.S. Economy has never been in worse shape than it is right now. You just can`t perceive that because the Federal Reserve has not taken away all the monetary support. But this is not a genuine recovery, this is a gigantic bubble, this is bigger than the housing bubble, this is bigger than the dot com bubble. This is all fantasy.

Peter Schiff is an American businessman, investment broker and financial commentator. Schiff is the CEO and chief global strategist of Euro Pacific Capital Inc.

The Federal Reserve Is Bluffing

The Federal Reserve is still trying to bluff, they are trying to pretend that they remain on this course, headed for a destination that they will never reach, which is an interest rate hike. That is not what the Federal reserve is going to do next. The next thing the Federal Reserve is going to do is to launch QE4.

Peter Schiff is an American businessman, investment broker and financial commentator. Schiff is the CEO and chief global strategist of Euro Pacific Capital Inc.

U.S. Economy: The Weakest Its Been Since The 2008 Financial Crisis

We now have 5 consecutive monthly declines in Durable Goods ex-transportation. The last time that happened was during the months surrounding the 2008 financial crisis. So, yet again, we have more evidence that the U.S. Economy today is the weakest it has been since the depths of the 2008 financial crisis.

Peter Schiff is an American businessman, investment broker and financial commentator. Schiff is the CEO and chief global strategist of Euro Pacific Capital Inc.

The Fed Is Not Going To Let The Stock Market Go Down

The reason that a weak stock market is going to be bad for the dollar and good for gold is because it means the Federal Reserve is more likely to either not raise interest rates or launch QE4.

I think the only way the Federal Reserve can prevent a stock market correction from turning into a bear market is by launching QE4. Unless we do that, we will have a bear market which is another reason why I am certain we are going to get QE4 because the Federal Reserve will not allow a bear market because it has built this recovery on asset bubbles, it is not going to let the stock market go down.

Peter Schiff is an American businessman, investment broker and financial commentator. Schiff is the CEO and chief global strategist of Euro Pacific Capital Inc.

Forex: The U.S. Dollar Has Been Drifting Lower

The dollar has been continuing to drift lower ever since Janet Yellen removed the word "Patient" last week and inserted a more patient attitude even though the word is not there.

Peter Schiff is an American businessman, investment broker and financial commentator. Schiff is the CEO and chief global strategist of Euro Pacific Capital Inc.

A Bullish Case For Gold

Traders are bearish on gold (SPDR Gold Trust ETF : GLD) because they are bullish on the dollar and they believe the Federal Reserve is going to raise rates. When they realize that they are not, and they have to rush to unwind these short trades and get back out of the dollar...if you thought gold went up a lot when the Federal Reserve did QE1 and QE2, wait till you see what is going to happen when they do QE4.

Peter Schiff is an American businessman, investment broker and financial commentator. Schiff is the CEO and chief global strategist of Euro Pacific Capital Inc.

Fed`s Rate Hike Fantasies

I think it is very likely that we are going to start to see weaker non form payrolls numbers, we are likely to see the unemployment rate notching up, which means those rate hike fantasies are going to be pushed off further and further into the future until they are ultimately obscured by the reality of QE4.

Peter Schiff is an American businessman, investment broker and financial commentator. Schiff is the CEO and chief global strategist of Euro Pacific Capital Inc.

Federal Reserve: Walking On A Fine Line

This bubble is too big to pop because if the Federal Reserve does pop it, the result will be a financial crisis much worse than 2008. So the Fed must maintain the pretense that is going to raise rates without actually ever doing it. That is the fine line that they are trying to walk.

Peter Schiff is an American businessman, investment broker and financial commentator. Schiff is the CEO and chief global strategist of Euro Pacific Capital Inc.

The Fed Will Only Raise Rates When They Are Forced To

They are never going to raise interest rates at least not until they are forced to. That is what I can`t understand, people have not figured this out yet, that Yellen has no intention of raising interest rates. She did mention that it was possible that they could raise rates but anything is possible. I mean an alien invasion is possible, right?... but its not going to happen. And it is not because of inflation, it is because we have a bubble, there is no legitimate recovery, if there was, they would have raised rates years ago. It is a gigantic bubble and the Federal Reserve is afraid to prick it.

Peter Schiff is an American businessman, investment broker and financial commentator. Schiff is the CEO and chief global strategist of Euro Pacific Capital Inc.

Commodities: When Will They Start Surging Again

When the dollar turns, that is what is going to unleash commodity prices. oil prices will come back up. Other commodity prices that were falling based on the anticipation of rate hikes, when they realize that we are going to get QE4...

If you thought QE1 or 2 did a number on the commodities market, wait till you see QE4. And when those commodities start to surge, they are not just going to surge in dollars, they will surge in all these currencies.

Peter Schiff is an American businessman, investment broker and financial commentator. Schiff is the CEO and chief global strategist of Euro Pacific Capital Inc.

The Federal Reserve Is Even More Dovish Now

If you read the entire statement, the Federal Reserve is more dovish now than it was before. The Federal Reserve is more concerned about the U.S. Economy today than it was when the word patient was still there.

Peter Schiff is an American businessman, investment broker and financial commentator. Schiff is the CEO and chief global strategist of Euro Pacific Capital Inc.

The U.S. Economy Is Rapidly Decelerating

The U.S. Economy is rapidly decelerating, I think without QE4 we will be back in recession. Now the Federal Reserve should allow that recession, it is going to be horrible, there is going to be a worse financial crisis than in 2008 but they will not do it. They will go back to the well and launch QE4, another question is, will they be able to bluff their way to QE5.

Peter Schiff is an American businessman, investment broker and financial commentator. Schiff is the CEO and chief global strategist of Euro Pacific Capital Inc.

U.S. Debt: Why The Federal Reserve Needs To Keep Rates Low

We don`t want to admit that we are insolvent so we have to raise the debt ceiling, so that we can continue to pretend that we can afford to pay the debt back, when it is impossible. In fact the debt is now so large, not only can`t we afford to repay it, we can`t even afford to service it if we have to pay a market rate of interest, which is why the Federal Reserve has to keep interest rates as low as possible for as long as possible.

Peter Schiff is an American businessman, investment broker and financial commentator. Schiff is the CEO and chief global strategist of Euro Pacific Capital Inc.

The Forex Markets Are Ignoring The Darkening Economic Picture Of The U.S.

The foreign exchange markets continue to ignore the darkening economic picture of the United States. The dollar enjoyed, I think, one of its best weekly gains in years, in fact it is the best 2 week gain for the U.S. Dollar Index since the financial crisis of 2008.

I keep hearing people talk about, 

Well, you know, we can ignore all this bad economic data because we got the jobs report. The jobs report is strong, and so therefore the economy must be strong and we can ignore all the economic data that suggests that the economy is weak. Because after all the jobs report says it is strong. 

Well, it seems to be, and I have said this before, that the jobs number looks like the outlier. When all the other data says White, and the jobs report says Black , why is that people are not questioning the validity of the jobs data?

Peter Schiff is an American businessman, investment broker and financial commentator. Schiff is the CEO and chief global strategist of Euro Pacific Capital Inc.

Dollar Bulls Are Wrong

I wonder how far the stock market has to fall before it dawns on some of these dollar bulls that the Federal Reserve is not going to raise rates. If we are in a bear market, is the Federal Reserve going to raise rates? I do not think so. If the Dow Jones Industrials Index drops 20 percent, are they going to kick the market in the groin while it is lying on the ground? Do they want the market going down 50 percent? Especially when the foundation of the recovery is the wealth effect from the stock market and the housing market.

Peter Schiff is an American businessman, investment broker and financial commentator. Schiff is the CEO and chief global strategist of Euro Pacific Capital Inc.

The Stock Market Could Drop Precipitously From Here

The markets are going to continue under pressure, the stock market could drop precipitously from here if this idea of a rate hike is not taken off the table by the Federal Reserve. Remember, the last time we had a significant correction in the stock market, the only thing that stopped it from turning into a bear market was a statement from a Fed Governor that QE4 was being considered.

Peter Schiff is an American businessman, investment broker and financial commentator. Schiff is the CEO and chief global strategist of Euro Pacific Capital Inc.

Yellen Is Going To Have To Come Out

Janet Yellen has let the market assume that they are about to raise interest rates. She has not done anything to distract them. She is going to have to come out and actually tell people, "The economy is weak, we are not going to raise rates."

Maybe she is going to have to waive the white flag and surrender if she wants to stop the carnage in the markets.

Peter Schiff is an American businessman, investment broker and financial commentator. Schiff is the CEO and chief global strategist of Euro Pacific Capital Inc.

U.S. Stocks Are Now Down YTD

Well, that was quick. The Nasdaq 5,000 party ended pretty much the day it began. The Nasdaq today was down better than 80 points, we are now at 4867 and we are leaving 5,000 rapidly in the rearview mirror. The Dow Jones was down 332 points. Remember on last week`s podcast, I mentioned that the Dow Jones Industrials Index and the S&P 500 Index were still up on the year but ever so slightly and I thought it would surrender their gains this week. Well, it happened on Monday. Both the S&P, which was down better than 35 points and the Dow which closed at the low of the day, down 332 points, have wiped out all their gains and are now negative on the year.

Peter Schiff is an American businessman, investment broker and financial commentator. Schiff is the CEO and chief global strategist of Euro Pacific Capital Inc.

Stock Market: Now Good News Is Not Good News

Now good news is not good news. Good news is bad news, because everybody believes that the Federal Reserve is going to raise rates now in June based on this number (Employment Report). And I think one of the reasons the markets had been rising recently was because more people were coming to my way of thinking of least about the June rate hike, thinking that they were off the table. Because the economic data had been so bad that people were thinking, the Federal Reserve is going to wait. But now that they have got this jobs data, everybody is convinced that they are going to move in June. I do not know why. There is nothing about this data that should change the Fed`s mind. This is just the same type of jobs number we have been getting all year long. If the Federal Reserve was not about to raise rates on the January number, which clearly was not based on Yellen`s most recent testimony, why should they raise it now? There is nothing remarkable about this number.

Peter Schiff is an American businessman, investment broker and financial commentator. Schiff is the CEO and chief global strategist of Euro Pacific Capital Inc.

Nasdaq: A Key Reversal

We had a beat, a stronger than expected jobs number and the Dow Jones Industrials Index closed off almost 300 points.

The weakest technically was the Nasdaq. The Nasdaq traded above 5,0000 for the first time in 15 years on Monday, it closed above 5,000 too. But it closed not only down for the week, but it was an outside week. We took out last week`s high and closed below last week`s low. Now, from a technical pattern, that is called a key reversal and its a very bearish sign for that index.

Peter Schiff is an American businessman, investment broker and financial commentator. Schiff is the CEO and chief global strategist of Euro Pacific Capital Inc.

Early Signs Of A U.S. Recession?

Probably the most bearish of the numbers we got was Factory Orders, which fell for the 6th consecutive months. This is rare. The last two times that we had Factory Orders fall 6 months in a row, the U.S. Economy has already in recession. It happened in 2008 and happened in 2001.

Peter Schiff is an American businessman, investment broker and financial commentator. Schiff is the CEO and chief global strategist of Euro Pacific Capital Inc.