Gold & Treasury Yields

Gold traders are the only ones worried about rising Treasury yields. 

Ironically the insignificant rise is actually even less relevant to gold than to other commodities or investment assets. 

If annual inflation is 10% does it really matter if 10-year Treasuries yield 0.9% or 1.1%?

Bitcoin's Rally: Not Being Driven By Wide-Spread Institutional Adoption

The recent surge in Bitcoin is not being driven by wide-spread institutional adoption. CNBC and other crypto shills are exploiting the fact that a few high-profile institutions have taken positions to create the false impression of larger participation to sucker in more buyers.

Bitcoin: I'm The Voice Of Reason In The Insanity

Many accuse me of tweeting about Bitcoin to get attention. If attention was my goal, I would pretend to jump on the Bitcoin bandwagon and be like all those high-profile Bitcoin promoters who tweet about Bitcoin far more than I do. I'm just the voice of reason in the insanity.

The Main Reason Investors Are So Exuberant

Investors are widely enthusiastic about every asset class except precious metals mining stocks. The irony is that the main reason investors are so exuberant is inflation. It's the reckless monetary policy of central banks that's driving investors out of cash and into risk assets.

Bitcoin: Not A Threat To Central Banks

Bitcoin promoters believe that Bitcoin is an actual threat to central banks and the fiat monetary system. Yet despite this belief they also believe that the U.S. government, which has the most to lose if Bitcoin

 succeeds, will take no action to protect itself from this threat.

The Coming U.S. Dollar Collapse

The coming U.S. Dollar collapse will likely result in China surpassing the U.S to become the world's largest economy before the end of the next presidential term. As America's economic dominance comes to an end, so too will the dollar's status as the dominant reserve currency.

Gold Is An Inflation Hedge

Gold is an inflation hedge because it's also a commodity. When inflation reduces the purchasing power of fiat currencies, it takes more units of the inflated currency to buy a given commodity. Since gold is also a commodity, it maintains its value relative to other commodities.

Since gold retains one hundred percent of its properties over time, and is easy to store, it's an ideal asset for consumers to hold during periods of high inflation. While more units of currency are need to buy commodities, the same quantity of gold can still be exchanged for other commodities.

Why Bond Yields Are So Low

Low bond yields have lulled many investors into a false sense of confidence that inflation is't a rising threat. But yields are only this low because of market manipulation by the Federal Reserve, which ironically intervenes in the bond market by creating even more inflation to buy bonds.

The Reason Why Gold Stocks Aren't Rising Yet

Inflationary pressures are building and investors are bidding up prices of inflation sensitive stocks. But they're not buying gold stocks yet as investors still expect the Federal Reserve to fight inflation by raising interest rates. But the Fed will surrender to inflation without a fight.

Bitcoin, Gold and Gold Mining Stocks

 Some have postulated that investors are selling gold and buying Bitcoin. Since they have nothing in common, I doubt that's happening. But some speculators may be selling gold stocks and buying GBTC, with gold stocks falling as gold rises, and GBTC trading up to a 25% premium.

Unlike Bitcoin and gold, GBTC and gold ming stocks do have something in common. GBTC is a way to speculate on the future price of Bitcoin, and gold stocks are a way to speculate on the future price of gold. The smarter trade is to drop GBTC and pick up some gold mining stocks.

Inflationary Pressures Are Building

Inflationary pressures are building and investors are bidding up prices of inflation sensitive stocks. But they're not buying gold stocks yet as investors still expect the Federal Reserve to fight inflation by raising interest rates. But the Federal Reserve will surrender to inflation without a fight.

Fighting Inflation With Inflation

It's amazing that markets have calmly accepted the widely-held belief that the Federal Reserve will respond to rising inflation expectations by printing even more money to buy bonds to keep yields from rising. Fighting inflation with inflation guarantees inflation wins and the dollar loses.

Bitcoin: A Massive Double Top?

Bitcoin bulls are celebrating because after 3 years Bitcoin finally managed to eke out a new high. But what makes them so sure that this marginal new high doesn't constitute a massive double top? Perhaps they should put away the champagne until an actual breakout is confirmed.

Bond Investors Are Worried About Stagflation

A weaker than expected November jobs report is sending Treasury yields higher, not lower. This means bond investors are worried about stagflation. The weaker the economy gets, the more inflation the Federal Reserve creates to stimulate it and to buy the excess Treasuries investors are dumping.

Bitcoin's Meteoric Rise

Bitcoin bulls argue that Bitcoin's meteoric rise means that major institutions that once shunned Bitcoin now have no choice but to hold their noses and buy it. Not only does Bitcoin's past performance not guarantee its future success, it more likely assures its future failure.

2020 Cambridge Gold Summit

 

Peter Schiff at the 2020 Cambridge Gold Summit.

In 5 years time, the difference between having Biden or Trump as president is only marginally different. 

We are heading over a cliff no matter who is driving the bus - the difference may be how long it takes to get there. 

Most of the funding for the increase in government spending will be printed by the Fed. The Fed will monetize this government debt leading to more inflation and a weaker dollar. Quantitative easing (QE) has returned with a vengeance. Peter believes QE is a never-ending process. 

Economic Recoveries Are Not Created By Central Government Planning

According to Joe Biden the economic team he is putting together will create a strong economic recovery. Recoveries are not created by central government planning. Biden and his team will stifle any recovery that hard working Americans may have otherwise created if left alone.

2021 May Be The Worst Year Ever For The U.S. Dollar

The U.S. dollar is now trading at its lowest level against the Swiss Franc (CHF) since January of 2015. This is a harbinger of things to come. The Swiss Franc is leading the way, but other currencies will soon follow. 2021 may be the worst year ever for the U.S. dollar, at least until 2022.

The euro is closing in on 1.21 verses the dollar, and the Dollar Index is close to breaking below 91, its lowest level since April of 2018, just 3% above a six-year low.

Bitcoin: A New Kind Of Bubble?

Will the Bitcoin bubble be the first in history where the little guys get in early and sophisticated investors arrive late to the party?

Roubini: Bitcoin Has No Role In Portfolios

"Bitcoin has no role in institutional or retail investors portfolios. It is not a currency: not an unit of account, not a scalable means of payment & is a highly volatile store of value. It is heavily manipulated."

-- Nouriel Roubini, economist

The Bitcoin Mania On CNBC

The reason it's so easy for Bitcoin pumpers to fool CNBC anchors into buying into the Bitcoin mania is that their understanding of investments, fiat money, gold, and economics is so limited. CNBC anchors are entertainers. At least sports anchors know something about sports.

Bitcoin Is Not Taking Any Market Share From Gold

Bitcoin is not taking any market share away from gold. 

That hype is just part of the pump so the whales can dump. 

The only markets where Bitcoin is taking share are for lottery tickets, sports betting, casino gaming, penny-stocks, and some overpriced large cap momentum stocks.

Bitcoin: When The Speculative Fever Dies Down

Since PayPal customers buying Bitcoin in anticipation of using it to fund future purchases must sell Bitcoin to buy an actual currency to transact with merchants, today's buyers are tomorrows sellers. If speculative fever dies down, who will take the other side of those trades?

PayPal's foray into Bitcoin is a gimmick designed to provide a short-term boost to Bitcoin's price. If PayPal really wanted to offer its customers an alternative and reliable long-term store of value, it could have allowed them to buy gold and store it to fund future purchases.

A Biden Victory Is Not Good For The Stock Market

🗣  "(...) a Biden victory is not good for the stock market. It means much higher taxes and that is not going to be offset by the Federal Reserve.”

The U.S. stock market just had its worst week since March. In fact, if you look at just the second half of October, this is the biggest decline we've seen in the second half of October since 1987 and that was the year of the October 87 stock market crash!

This Time Stocks And Bonds May Crash Together

When the stock market crashed in Oct. of 1987, a sharp rise in bond prices not only cushioned the blow for diversified portfolios, but lower interest rates supported higher stock market valuations. This time stocks and bonds may crash together, leaving investors with no relief.

Bitcoin, Election & Stimulus

Bitcoin: The Biggest Bubble

If you measure the size of asset bubbles based on the level of conviction buyers have in their trade, the Bitcoin bubble is the biggest I've seen. Bitcoin hodlers are more confident they're right and sure they can't lose than were dotcom or house buyers during those bubbles.

Is a contested election good for the stock market?

On CNBC Fundstrat said a contested election is good news for the stock market because it will cause the Federal Reserve to backstop losses with more QE. Maybe if COVID starts turning people into Zombies we can all stay home and get rich, as the Federal Reserve money printing sends stock prices soaring.

The Economic Dependence On Stimulus

It's crazy to blame the problems in the economy or the stock market on a lack of stimulus. The Federal Reserve is already suppling constant monetary stimulus and the Federal government is providing huge fiscal stimulus. The problem is that the stimulus addicts now need an even larger dose.

Stock Market: All Bubbles Eventually Find A Pin

The Peter Schiff Show, Episode 622: All Bubbles Eventually Find a Pin

Watch and listen on Youtube: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9JFDrWGA4Nc

Highlights from this podcast episode:

• Stock markets tumble on renewed fears.Blue wave may not crest as once was expected.
• More stimulus comes with bigger government.
• Trump is the Republican Jimmy Carter.
• Trump’s legacy will be his successful Supreme Court nominees.
• The most important thing this election is to prevent Democrats from taking control of the Senate.

Elections: Biden Will Create A Weaker Economy

Bad news on the presidential election is perceived as good news for the stock market. Despite knowing a
Joe Biden win means lower corporate earnings and higher taxes, investors think the weaker economy Biden will create means even larger doses of fiscal and monetary stimulus.

Goldman Sachs Bets Against The U.S. Dollar

On CNBC: Goldman Sachs bets against the dollar on ‘blue wave’ prospects and vaccine outlook

Goldman is still too positive on the dollar, and doesn't understand that a delay in a covid vaccine is also bearish for the dollar. Such a delay will lead to an even weaker U.S. economy, larger budget and trade deficits, and even more money printing.

More Stimulus Only Weakens The Economy Further

The misguided goal of the "stimulus" is to get consumers to spend more. But excess past consumption is why the economy is so weak now. We must reduce consumption to free up resources to increase capital investment and production. More spending only weakens the economy further.

Very appropriate that Larry Kudlow was wearing a mask when he claimed the V-shaped recover was going strong, but that the economy needed an additional $1.8 trillion in government "stimulus." The economy can't be simultaneously strong and also in need of massive government support.

Much darker days for the U.S. dollar lie ahead. It's going way down and taking the entire American economy down with it.

Powell Doesn't Understand Economics

Powell doesn't understand economics. Low interest rates are only good for the economy if they naturally result from high savings and low debt. If they result from Federal Reserve manipulation, they are extremely harmful. Like any government price control, it results in adverse imbalances.

The Fed's misguided monetary policy will create the condition where any cure for an inflation rate that greatly exceeds its 2% target will be fatal to the economy. If the inflation disease doesn't kill the economy, the cure will. The question is, which poison will the Fed pick?

The Wrong Road To Economic Recovery

The economy doesn't need more consumption, it needs more production. Productive employment will stimulate the economy. Printing money and distributing it to non-productive people will not. It will only result in larger trade deficits, a weaker dollar, and higher consumer prices.

The Reasons Behind The Gold Sell-Off

Gold is selling off because traders now believe the Federal Reserve will not be as easy as once expected. While Fed policy is more likely to be much easier than expected, if traders are correct this development would be far more bearish for the stock market than it is for the gold market.

The lack of conviction gold stock investors have in the trade really is amazing. Despite the most positive fundamentals ever for gold, fear is far more pervasive than greed. Imagine what the market will look like when larger gold stock investors actually turn bullish on gold. 

Related trading instruments: SPDR Gold Trust ETF (GLD),Market Vectors Gold Miners ETF (GDX)

Buying The Gold Dips

Today's stock market rout was likely triggered by disappointment that the Federal Reserve was not dovish enough. The Federal Reserve may not be dovish enough to support a stock market bubble, but it's more than dovish enough to support a much higher gold price. Buy the dip!

Supreme Court: The Last Firewall Against Socialism!

The reason Democrats are so worried about a Trump Supreme Court pick is that their entire agenda is unconstitutional. Even if their radical policies are enacted into law a just Supreme Court can strike them down. It's the last remaining firewall to protect America from socialism.

It's Never The Time To Worry About The Deficits

On CNBC, Steve Mnuchin said that given a Covid weakened economy now is not the time to worry about deficits. But before Covid when the economy was supposedly booming, he was not worried about the deficits either.

In other words, it's never the time to worry about the deficits.

Stock Market Correction

Those hoping that a normal stock market correction will create a buying opportunity don't understand the market. A normal correction is much too small to create any real value in stocks. The only opportunity is reckless Fed policy making over-priced stocks even more expensive.

Greenspan Is Worried About Inflation

Alan Greenspan told  CNBC his primary economic concern is inflation. That's in sharp contrast to the view of the current Fed Chairman. Powell is worried inflation is too low while Greenspan is worried it's too high. If Greenspan is correct Powell's policy will end in disaster.

The Biggest Bubble Ever!

"On Thursday the biggest bubble ever may have popped without a pin!"

More QE will Only Weaken The economy

Chicago Federal Reserve President Charles Evans claims more QE is on the way to help the economy. The problem is the only things QE has helped prop up are asset prices, excessive debt, consumption, and government spending. 

More QE will weaken the economy further and exacerbate the collapse!

We Are Losing The War On Trade

The U.S. trade deficit "unexpectedly" surged 18.9 percent in July to $63.6B from an upwardly revised $53.5B in June. This is the widest trade deficit since 2008, so its larger than any monthly trade deficit under Obama. Donald Trump promised to win on trade. We're losing big-league.

Crude Oil Prices Are Going A Lot Higher

"They're getting rid of an energy stock Exxon Mobil (XOM)... Now that leaves Chevron (CVX) as the only oil company in the DJIA. Personally, I take that is bullish sign for energy stocks. I think people are under invested in energy. People really have no idea how much higher oil prices are headed. I think they're headed ultimately a lot higher and so I think that this is a good contrarian indicator."

Bearish Scenario For Stocks

I wonder how long it will take equity investors to realize that a collapsing dollar and soaring Gold price are bearish for stocks, as it will force the Federal Reserve to dump bonds, forcing interest rates to surge, the Federal Government to slash spending, and corporate earning to plunge.

Related trading instruments: SPDR S&P 500 Index ETF (SPY), SPDR Gold Trust ETF (GLD)

Why Traders Are Buying Stocks

CNBC's Jim Cramer is wrong about why investors are buying stocks. They aren't buying because they expect a COVID cure, but because they expect the Fed to keep printing money. They just don't understand how bad the consequences will be. If they did they'd be buying Gold instead.

Related trading instruments: Market Vectors Gold Miners ETF (GDX), Market Vectors Junior Gold Miners ETF (GDXJ), SPDR Gold Trust ETF (GLD)

The Federal Reserve Is Creating Dollars To Buy Bonds

The only way the Federal Reserve can suppress interest rates is by creating dollars to buy bonds. The more dollars it creates the more value the dollar loses, and the faster consumer prices rise. That puts upward pressure on rates so the Federal Reserve must create even more dollars to keep rates low.

Buy Your Gold Before Too Many Figure It Out

It looks like the Fed's 2 percent inflation target, which started out as a ceiling, is about to officially become a floor. The irony is that the actual inflation rate will be so far above 2 percent that we may never step foot on that floor again. Buy your gold before too many figure this out.

The Next Crisis Will Be A Dollar Crisis

The U.S. dollar's decline is welcomed as good news. Many were concerned that a strengthening dollar risked domestic deflation, hurt U.S. exports, lowered corporate earnings, and threatened emerging markets. Cheers will soon turn to tears as a dollar crash becomes the next crisis.

How Will Stocks Fare Under Biden?

If you think U.S. stocks can do well under Biden as they did well under Obama, think again. When Obama took office stocks were ending a decade long bear market, with the NASDAQ down 70 percent. It's since soared 7-fold. The economy is far worse now and the Federal Reserve can't blow another bubble.

The Role Of A Central Bank

We don't want a Central Bank that helps the Federal Government go deeper into debt. We want a central bank that forces Congress to cut spending or suffer the adverse consequences of rising interest rates and recession if it fails to do so.

An easy way to tell how bad a job Powell is doing as Fed Chair is that every member of Congress is praises him and thanking him for his help. We need a Fed Chair with the courage to do what's right for the country even if it's unpopular with Congress and the public at the time.