The Only Chance Of Postponing A Recession

I think Trump knows the only chance he has of postponing the onset of this recession until beyond the 2020 election is to get the Federal Reserve to preemptively cut interest rates and launch QE4.

What set the low, what was the catalyst for this rally, was the Fed getting more dovish. It went from ‘we’re going to keep hiking rates’ to ‘we’re finished hiking rates.’ It went from ‘quantitative tightening is on autopilot’ to ‘quantitative tightening is going to end over the summer.’ And so that shift – where the Fed went from being hawkish to dovish – that started the rally. Well, this more recent shift, where the Fed changed expectations again and disappointed the markets by saying, ‘Hey, we’re not as dovish as you think. We’re not going to cut rates,’ that, I think, capped the market. And now, Trump coming in and taking away the prospects of this great trade deal, well, that’s like a one-two punch, and I think this bear market rally, like I said, is over and we’re going lower.”

Episode 464: Job Headlines Still Mask the Real Story

Latest investment commentary from Peter Schiff.

Episode 464: Job Headlines Still Mask the Real Story

Is Deflation Good Or Bad?

Between 1800 and 1900 the U.S Consumer Prices Index (CPI) fell by 50 percent. So we had 100 years of "deflation." This includes the gilded age, the strongest period of economic growth in U.S. history. If falling consumer prices were good then, why does the Federal Reserve think they would be such a problem now?

Tesla (TSLA): Things Have Been Going Wrong For A Long Time

Peter Schiff was recently on RT.com discussing Tesla (TSLA) stock:

"Things have been going a lot wrong for a long time at Tesla when it comes to profitability. So, it's really not about one quarter it's about whether or not you're gonna make the leap of faith that Tesla is actually going to make a profitable company out of its business. Right now it's losing a lot of money and what has to happen to justify the current share price is that they have to make a profit but they have to do it at a large enough scale to justify this valuation and I think that's going to be a very difficult thing for Tesla."

GDP Data: Don't Rule Out A 2019 Recession

Inflation Numbers: Something Does Not Add Up!

The government wants us to believe that the annualized increase in the cost of living in Q1 2019 was just 0.9%. Yet the price of oil rose by an annualized rate of over 130% during that quarter! Either the price of everything else plunged, or something doesn't add up!

Bond Market, Gold & The Federal Reserve

The bond market and gold are rising, as the US Dollar falls, because the supposed collapse in the inflation rate in Q1 despite a 130% annualized rise in the price of oil, gives the Federal Reserve yet another excuse to remain patient on future interest rate hikes.

Interest Rate Cuts, Return to QE

If oil prices keep rising, maybe inflation will fall so much that the dreaded deflation risk will rear its ugly head. Then Trump may get his wish, as the Federal Reserve will have an excuse to cut interest rates and return to QE!

Don't Rule Out A 2019 Recession  

The near 17% drop in Q1 energy prices, despite a 33% surge in oil prices, resulted from the sharp fall in oil prices the previous quarter. This, plus one-off positive contributions from inventories and trade, will likely be reversed in Q2. Don't rule out a 2019 recession.

India Is Buying Gold

India has joined countries like Russia and China buying gold in an attempt to diversify reserves away from the US Dollar:

"The Reserve Bank of India has jumped on the gold bandwagon. Since December 2017, the Indian central bank has added 50.4 tons of gold to its reserves. India bought 8.2 tons of gold in January and February of this year and analysts project that pace to pick up. India’s gold reserves currently stand at a record high of almost 609 tons, according to data from the IMF."

Related trading tickers: SPDR Gold Trust ETF (GLD), Market Vectors Gold Miners ETF (GDX), Market Vectors Junior Gold Miners ETF (GDXJ)