Gold Will Rally in 2017

We are going to get more inflation but it is not a negative for gold, it is a positive for gold. And the markets were wrong about gold at the end of last year, they sold it off when the Fed raised interest rates,, gold bottomed out in January and then had a huge run. We are going to have another big run next year but next year gold is going to finish the year strong. (SPDR Gold Trust ETF (GLD), Market Vectors Gold Miners ETF (GDX), Market Vectors Junior Gold Miners ETF (GDXJ), Newmont Mining (NEM), Barrick Gold (ABX), Goldcorp (GG), NovaGold (NG))

Gold: Inflation Will Rise Much Faster Than Interest Rates

I like to see that negativity out there. Gold has gone down quite a bit since the election but if you go back over the last 15 years, gold had a pretty good track record.

It is interesting that the reason that so many people have turned bearish on gold is because they believe there will be more inflation under Donald Trump, that we are going to have larger deficits as a result of the tax cuts, increased government spending and because of the higher inflation, the Federal Reserve is going to get more aggressive and raise interest rates and somehow that increase in interest rates is going to be bad for gold. It is ridiculous! Higher inflation is good for gold!

Inflation will rise much faster than interest rates, so real interest rates are going to fall and that is when gold shines brightest. (Newmont Mining (NEM), Eldorado Gold Corp (USA)(NYSE:EGO), Goldcorp (GG), Market Vectors Gold Miners ETF (GDX), Market Vectors Junior Gold Miners ETF (GDXJ), SPDR Gold Trust ETF (GLD), Barrick Gold (ABX)

Will Donald Trump Produce Any Economic Growth?

The Federal Reserve does not seem to believe that Donald Trump is going to do anything to produce economic growth because they were more optimistic last year when they knew that Obama was going to be the President than they are now, knowing that it is going to be Donald Trump.

The Housing Market Has Been Propped Up By The Fed, Not Ready To Stand Alone

Both the housing market and the auto market have been propped up by the Federal Reserve’s cheap money and artificially low interest rates. These markets may not be ready to stand alone. (Ford (F), General Motors (GM), Tesla Motors (TSLA), iShares Dow Jones US Real Estate (ETF) (IYR), Lennar Corporation (LEN), KB Home (KBH))

Markets: If Interest Rates Go Up, The Bubble Pricks

We have a bubble economy. If interest rates go up, the bubble pricks. If you move interest rates higher, by definition, stocks and real estate are less valuable. They are more valuable the lower the rate. If interest rates go up, their values come down, multiples have to go down. (SPDR S&P 500 Index ETF (SPY), SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF (DIA), Nasdaq 100 Index ETF (QQQ), iShares Russell 2000 Index ETF (IWM), iShares Barclays 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT), iShares Dow Jones US Real Estate (ETF) (IYR))

Stock Market: The Trump Rally

This honeymoon is going on, and everybody thinks this is great and the narrative is feeding on itself but people are ignoring the big rise in interest rates and assuming none of it matters. All of a sudden higher rates do not matter because we are going to get all this extra growth from the tax cuts and from the government stimulus. Well, the rarity is if interest rates rise it does not matter about the stimulus, the sedative that will result from higher rates will more than offset it, plus the markets are assuming that higher interest rates will have no effect on U.S. asset prices or the economy. They are wrong on both those counts.