May 4, 2018
Gold & Gold Stocks
Gold continues
to pullback. Remember we got above 1350
briefly and we couldn't break out and
now here we are going back down to 1300
but one
thing that looks good to me
are the gold stocks.
US Dollar Strength: The Current Drivers
The strength of the US Dollar I think again is being driven by
the rise in bond yields. The yield on the
10-year US Treasuries is back up to 2.97 percent, still below three percent but I
don't think it will remain below three
percent for long.
May 3, 2018
Stocks: Sell In May And Go Away
There is an old Wall Street adage sell
in May and go away and the reason for
that saying is that seasonally the
market tends to produce better returns
in the first four months of the year
January through April and then
historically beginning in May and
throughout the summer the market could
generally go down and I think the time
to buy back in is typically September , October.
you know there's a lot of
big down days down in September, October so kind of
get out of the market in May, go away and
then come back later in the year and buy
back what you sold.
Well today was May
1st and it looked like a lot of people
weren't gonna wait that long and they
were quick to sell.
Apr 30, 2018
The Only Thing That Can Stop A Bear Market
I do
think there's a good chance that in
February we began a long overdue bear
market. Technically we haven't gone down 20 percent so
Wall Street still calls it a
correction and recently we've had a bit
of rally which to me looks like the
correction in the bear market.
The only
thing that would stop the bear market
from actually materializing
would be a change of policy by the Federal Reserve which I wouldn't rule out because I do
expect the Fed to change policy.
I expect
the Federal Reserve to reverse the rate hikes and to go
back to zero interest rates. I expect the Fed to launch another round
of quantitative easing, QE4. So if
they do that before we're in an official
bear market then we may never have an
official bear market so I just don't
know how long the Fed is gonna wait
before showing its hand.
Apr 26, 2018
Stocks: This Is A Bear Market
It looks like
the period of relative calm in the
markets is over and the next leg down
has begun.
This is a bear market, the
upward move was the correction. It was
the first correction in this young bear
market that technically is not a bear
market yet because we're not down 20 percent but that's only a matter of time before
people call the bear market what it is.
Apr 19, 2018
Global Debt Has Reached Record Levels
Global debt has reached record levels. According to a recent International Monetary Fund (IMF) report, the world has amassed $164 trillion of debt. Three countries account for half of the total global debt – the US, China and Japan.
Petroyuan Clould Be The Death Blow For The U.S. Dollar
As an article at the Gold Telegraph starkly put it, “the rise of the petroyuan could be the death blow for the U.S. Dollar.”
Apr 18, 2018
Podcast: The Calm Before The Storm
Peter Schiff discusses the state of the economy and his market outlook on his most recent podcast.
Apr 11, 2018
Gold: Ever Tightening Supply
During the Squawk Box interview, US Global Investors CEO Frank Holmes noted that the massive money-printing around the world has made gold an important part of an investment portfolio. Holmes also mentioned the ever tightening gold supply.
Related trading instruments:
- SPDR Gold Trust ETF (GLD)
- Market Vectors Gold Miners ETF (GDX)
Apr 9, 2018
Stock Market: Short-Term Pain
Even
President Trump came out today and he
said the stock market might be in for
some short-term pain right but he says
it's worth it because we're going to get a long-term gain and of course he's
referring to his tariffs or a trade war
that we're gonna win this trade war and
that's going to deliver the long-term
gain. It ain't! We're gonna have
short-term pain and then the pain is
gonna get worse
in the long run.
Apr 6, 2018
Gold: A Tight Trading Range
If you
look at the gold chart the range
is really getting compressed. We're
not breaking out but we're not breaking
down. It's getting narrower and narrower, we're really consolidating.
Related trading instruments:
- Market Vectors Gold Miners ETF (GDX)
- Market Vectors Junior Gold Miners ETF (GDXJ)
- SPDR Gold Trust ETF (GLD)
Apr 3, 2018
Stock Market: We Are In A Bear Market
We're in a
bear market, it's just not officially
acknowledged yet. You know, just like a lot of
times you know they don't acknowledge
the recession until after you have two
quarters of negative GDP growth but
clearly you're in the recession for a
long time before it's officially
admitted.
There's
one caveat if the Federal Reserve comes
in and changes the game by taking away
the rate hikes or launching QE 4 then we
may never make it to a bear market. But
if the Federal Reserve continues on its current path
and maintains the current pretense then
we are in a bear market and it's only a
question of time before it is officially
acknowledged.
Related trading instruments:
- SPDR S&P 500 Index ETF (SPY)
- SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF (DIA)
- iShares Russell 2000 Index ETF (IWM)
- Nasdaq 100 Index ETF (QQQ)
Apr 2, 2018
Stock Market: More Down Quarters To Come
The market action that I've
been observing really to me looks like a
bear market.
For the first quarter all the major
stock market indexes were down. This was
the first time in 10 quarters as we had 9 consecutive positive quarters (I
think that's a record).
The US
stock market finally broke that winning
streak we'll see how investors who
thought the US stocks can only go up may react to their
first down quarter in ten. But it's not
going to be the last down quarter, I
think this could be the beginning of
several more down quarters to come.
Related trading instruments:
- iShares Russell 2000 Index ETF (IWM)
- SPDR S&P 500 Index ETF (SPY)
- Nasdaq 100 Index ETF (QQQ)
- SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF (DIA)
Mar 28, 2018
Theres a Potential Huge Problem With Social Media Stocks (GOOG, FB, TWTR)
There's a potential huge problem with
these social media sites, Google (GOOG), Facebook (FB), Twitter (TWTR). You know everybody whose
business model is advertising where the
user pays nothing, if you want to
use Facebook, if you want to use Twitter, it costs nothing! It doesn't cost you
anything to have a Twitter account, to
have a Facebook account, it's all free!
Well if it's all free
how does Facebook make all this money? Well, they make all the money by selling
the data that they collect from all of
their users to advertisers or political campaigns or anybody who needs
personal information in order to market
their product or sell their product. That is the trade-off that everybody
makes - you get the service for free but you know that they're using your
information.
I think the public, potentially there could be a backlash regarding just how much information the social media companies are actually retaining.
How Bear Markets Operate
What a lot of people don't
realize is that the stock market has
some of its biggest gains daily gains
they occur in bear markets not in bull
markets. You have some spectacular
rallies in bear markets that is how bear markets operate.
Stock Market: Volatility Is Bearish
We're having more incredible stock
market volatility and I've spoken about
the pick up in volatility as another
sign that things are different that
we've had a change because increased
volatility usually happens at inflection
points especially when we've had a
record period of no volatility or
minimal volatility all of a sudden were
having incredible swings in the stock
market.
Mar 26, 2018
Video: Will Gold Breakout as Stocks Breakdown?
Latest video market update from peter Schiff.
Topics: stock market, gold, gold mining stocks.
Mar 23, 2018
Stock Market: A Perfect Storm
The bond market was still lower
despite the Federal Reserve optimism that inflation
is going to remain in check but this
could set the tone for some more
weakness in the stock market. We
got other problems going on with the
Nasdaq and the FANG stocks and Facebook (FB) and all that seems like it could be a
perfect storm brewing in an overvalued
US stock market.
Mar 19, 2018
The Anti-Dollar Trade
I am
totally all-in on this
anti-dollar trade and and so this type
of sentiment by retail investors on top
of all of the other economic indicators
market indicators that I am seeing
simply cements for me how right I
ultimately am on this investment
strategy.
Related trading instruments:
- Market Vectors Gold Miners ETF (GDX)
- Market Vectors Junior Gold Miners ETF (GDXJ)
- SPDR Gold Trust ETF (GLD)
Thoughts On The Stock Market Bubble
There's no way that if you are
investing rationally if you are buying
value stocks right and using your brain, there is no way that you're gonna
outperform a bubble. Nobody can do that
but of course once the bubble pops
that's when the outperformance comes in. I mean and if it's a bubble you are
guaranteed to outperform it if you just
can wait it out because bubbles by
definition always pop and when they do
they collapse.
Related trading instruments:
- SPDR S&P 500 Index ETF (SPY)
- iShares Russell 2000 Index ETF (IWM)
- Nasdaq 100 Index ETF (QQQ)
Mar 16, 2018
Did Kudlow Put In A Floor For Gold Prices?
Larry Kudlow shares his views on gold and the US Dollar.
Related trading instruments:
- SPDR Gold Trust ETF (GLD)
- Market Vectors Gold Miners ETF (GDX)
Mar 15, 2018
Markets: Trump, Kudlow, Tariffs
What is
Larry Kudlow done most of his life? He's
been a TV personality like Trump. Yes
he has worked at Bear Sterns for a
while but most
people know him from CNBC as a commentator
and he has a lot of connections, he's
regarded on Wall Street and I think this
is the president trying to make that
overture. This is all about show remember
he's a showman.
I think that Kudlow
is ultimately going to come out in
support of whatever tariffs the
president wants to adopt. Maybe
they'll pretend that Kudlow had some
influence on maybe targeting the tariffs
in the right direction.
Nothing has changed
simply because Larry Kudlow has been has
been nominated. It simply to me
indicates a kind of a smart move on the
part of the President given the agenda
that he wants to pursue.
Markets: US Dollar, Gold
Even with today's bad
economic data even with the downward
revision by the Atlanta Fed the US Dollar
was up slightly today. Gold was flat, it didn't really go anywhere. Nobody really perceives what's going to
happen.
Retail Sales: Down 3 Months In A Row
Instead of getting a rebound we got another drop, we got another point one percent decline in February. That's a trifecta, that's three months in a row of falling retail sales. That hasn't happened in six years, I mean this is pretty rare. If you're like me and you've been very skeptical of the economy being good this is a validation because Americans are broke!
Mar 13, 2018
Bitcoin Is Nothing Like Gold
Bitcoin is
nothing like gold despite the fact that
you have all this terminology that
was deliberately used to make
it sound like gold. You mine
Bitcoin, right? No, there's no mines, there's no pitchforks
there's nobody out there, there's no mine right? But you create
them but they said it's mining and
there's miners to make it sound like gold. They make the Bitcoin
look like gold, it's color it
looks like a coin made of gold. That's done for a reason. To create
the false impression that you're buying
something like gold.
Bitcoin: We've Seen The Peak In The Bubble Already
The bigger story is gonna be the
money that's lost. There's gonna
be so many people that are gonna lose a
tremendous amount of money in these
crypto currencies. There's a pretty good chance that we've
seen the peak in the bubble already.
Mar 9, 2018
Bitcoin: I Don't Think It's Going To Work
I don't think it's going to work and
people say well you just don't
understand it. I think I do understand it, I think the reason that so many people
are involved in it is because they don't
understand it. Now, a lot of those people
have made quite a bit of money by not
understanding it because they
bought it a long time ago and greater
fools paid even higher prices and people
can confuse that success with
understanding.
Mar 7, 2018
Manufacturing Jobs Will Be Lost As A Result Of These Tariffs
Trump is right, the trade deficit is a problem
but where Trump is wrong is thinking
that these tariffs are going to solve
the problem. They won't. They will make
the problem worse.
This is the irony of
these tariffs. They will result in larger
trade deficits not smaller trade
deficits and that's even without any
foreign retaliation meaning if China, if
Europe, if our trading partners do
nothing in response to these tariffs the
result will be larger not smaller
deficits. And manufacturing jobs, the very
jobs that Trump is hoping to save, manufacturing jobs will be lost as a
result of these tariffs.
Mar 2, 2018
The Beginning Of A Much Bigger Downturn
In February's big decline the Dow Jones Industrials Index (DJIA) dropped better
than a thousand points on the month and
we'll see if this is the beginning of a
much bigger downturn. In fact it could
easily be the beginning of a bear market.
Related trading instruments:
- SPDR S&P 500 Index ETF (SPY)
- SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF (DIA)
- Nasdaq 100 Index ETF (QQQ)
- iShares Russell 2000 Index ETF (IWM)
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