Stock Market: The Downtrend Is Intact

Some of the highlights from the Peter Schiff Podcast, ep. 402.

Peter mentioned that the Russell 2000 Index is already in correction territory,

"The Russell 2000 is actually down about 14 percent from its highs so it's now officially in a correction."

Peter also mentioned that yesterday's rally had all the characteristics of a short covering rally and that the down trend in stocks in very likely still intact,

"To me this looked like a classic reversal Tuesday type of rally, one of the reversal Tuesday's where you gap way down and then just rally throughout the day The rally did not produce a positive close so it was not a technically significant rally. In fact, I think the downtrend is intact. To me, it looked like a lot of short-covering was going."

Financials are an example of weakness in the U.S. stock market,

"If you look at the financials for example all those stocks continued to go down closing in the red rallied off the lows but no substantial rallies."

The Box That The Federal Reserve Has Placed Itself In

That's exactly the choice that the Federal Reserve is going to have to make. Next time they're going to have to raise interest rates into a weak economy. 

In fact, they're gonna have to raise interest rates into a financial crisis, into a depression and if they don't do it we're gonna have something even worse, we're going to have hyperinflation. 

That is the box that unfortunately the Federal Reserve has placed itself in based on years and years of this monetary policy.

Stock Market: What's Happened Thus Far During The Month

Look at what's happened thus far during the month of October, which I had been warning on my podcast, looked like there could be a weak October given where we were in the market, given how ridiculous the sentiment was in the face of overwhelming evidence that the economy was in fact weakening.

If you look at the numbers the Dow Jones Industrials Average (DJIA) is down 3.8 percent so far on the month. That's the best performing of the averages. The S&P 500 Index is down about 4.7 percent on the month, the Nasdaq Composite is down 7.4 percent, the DJ Transports down 8.3 percent and the Russell 2000 shows a 9.2 percent decline.

September Existing Home Sales Plunged The Most In 2 Years

September existing home sales plunged the most in 2 years, extending the streak of consecutive monthly declines to six. Homebuilding stocks are hitting 52-week lows, registering their worst year since 2008. If housing is this bad during the boom, imagine what happens after the bust!

Bear Market Rallies Try To Create A False Sense Of Confidence

Corrections or bear markets have rallies. So, maybe this 500-point move up in the Dow Jones Industrials Average (DJIA) is the first upward correction in the new bear market. 

There's no way to say that we have not entered a bear market. It's possible that it will be a bear market, you can't call it a bear market now even though maybe 25% of the stocks are in bear market territory. The majority are not but it's only a question of time. There are a lot of stocks that are down quite a bit but just not enough to be a bear market. 

But remember some of the most spectacular moves that you're gonna see to the upside in a market happen in bear markets. Historically the biggest up days have been in bear markets and that is to try to create a false sense of confidence a false sense of hope.

A Bear Market And A Recession

More important that a bear market it's a recession. I mean this is a bubble not just in the stock market but in the entire economy! So, the Federal Reserve has distorted more than just markets and the problem is this recession is going to be far more painful and far deeper than the one that we had  in 2008/09 because it's also going to be accompanied by rising consumer prices. I think as Americans lose their jobs they're gonna see the cost of living going up rather dramatically and so this is going to make it particularly painful.