Aug 21, 2018
The Weak Dollar Policy
It should be obvious that Donald Trump has a weak dollar policy whether he wants to name it a weak dollar policy or not.
Jul 26, 2018
The Next Recession
It's not that
the inversion of the yield curve causes
the recession. It's that's that long
rates start to fall as investors start
to look beyond the expansion to the next
recession and they start pricing in the
next round of rate cuts.
So it's not that
the inversion causes the recession it
simply is a good indicator that a
recession is coming so you don't need an
inverted yield curve to get a recession
and we're gonna have a recession this
time without the yield curve inverting
given how little headway the Federal Reserve was
able to make in normalizing interest
rates.
Jul 23, 2018
The Catalyst For The US Dollar Drop
The catalyst today for the US Dollar sharp reversal was more tweets from President Trump where he is expressing anger not only at the Federal Reserve right or not only at the ECB and at the Bank of China because he is accusing both Europe and China of being currency manipulators of taking advantage of us by weakening their currencies.
This was
probably one of the biggest down days
for the US Dollar this year - across the
board weakness which is likely to
continue. Believe me we're gonna
have days that are gonna be much much
weaker than this, I believe later in the year and of
course next year and the year after that I think the dollar is gonna get
particularly beaten up.
Jul 20, 2018
U.S. Dollar: Forex Market Intervention Ahead?
Given Trump's accusations against Europe and China regarding currency manipulation I would not be surprised if the Treasury intervenes in forex markets to drive the dollar lower. The dollar's demise will happen on its own anyway, so intervention will only accelerate the process.
Jul 19, 2018
Gold, Gold Stocks and Inflation
The
price of gold is falling,
this is the new low for the price of
gold this year.
Gold stocks are continuing to
hold up very well in the face of the
decline in the price of gold. Gold stocks
are not making a new low for the year at
least not yet and though they are down
today they are not down nearly as much
as you would assume with a 10-12 dollar
drop in the price of gold.
I still think that traders have this wrong.
They're still looking at the the trade
war as somehow being dollar positive. It's
dollar negative. That is impacting gold.
They are dismissing the increasing
inflation numbers that we're getting as
transitory because they think the Fed is
gonna hike rates more to fight the
inflation which is going to be good for
the US Dollar and bad for Gold.
The reality
is they're not gonna fight the inflation
they're gonna surrender. Inflation is
going to win because if they fight
inflation they cause the worst financial
crisis since 2008 and they don't want to do that.
Jul 18, 2018
The Economy Is Going To Fall Into a Severe Recession
Peter Schiff: "I think the economy is going to fall into a severe recession."
Jul 16, 2018
Markets: Interest Rates, Federal Reserve
The Federal Reserve is raising interest rates and the higher rates are going to be problematic even more so now than they were back
then because we have a lot more debt. But
I don't think they will succeed in
raising rates as high as they did before. I think the tipping point is going to
come much lower if it hasn't already
come.
I do think that they're gonna abort these interest rate hikes much sooner than people think. Potentially they could use the trade war and it's unexpected negative effect on the economy as the excuse to do what they were gonna do anyway, which is to call the whole cycle off and start cutting interest rates again and going back to quantitative easing. That's where we're headed.
I do think that they're gonna abort these interest rate hikes much sooner than people think. Potentially they could use the trade war and it's unexpected negative effect on the economy as the excuse to do what they were gonna do anyway, which is to call the whole cycle off and start cutting interest rates again and going back to quantitative easing. That's where we're headed.
Jul 10, 2018
The Perfect Excuse For The Federal Reserve
What's gonna happen as a result
of the tariffs in the trade war and
again this is a perfect excuse for the
Federal Reserve I mean this is like a
gift from heaven because now when the
Federal Reserve has to cut interest
rates, the Federal Reserve has to do
QE 4.
They can just blame it all on the
tariffs on the trade war they could say
everything was great, we were
going to normalize interest rates, we
were going to shrink our balance sheet
but Trump went and started a trade war
and it unexpectedly sent us into
recession. So now we've got to cut interest rates again and do QE 4.
They were gonna
do that anyway whether or not we had the
trade war, whether or not we had any of
these tariffs but now this gives them a
perfect excuse to blame something on
which they had no control.
Jun 26, 2018
Gold: The Last Safe Haven Standing
Even though gold has made a move down with the breakout in the dollar – or the move up in the dollar – I think that’s the last safe haven standing. I mean, once you run out of safe havens, where are your going to go? That’s where people are heading because nobody is looking there now. People don’t even think they need a safe haven. In fact, I don’t even know if money is moving based on a search for a safe haven. It’s just going where the momentum is.
Jun 25, 2018
Most Banks Would Fail A Stagflation Stress Test
Peter Schiff explains in this podcast why most US banks would fail a stress test in a stagflation scenario.
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)