Treasury Yields: The Chart Looks Ominous

Look at the bond market, yields on the 10-year and on the 30-year were up again today. We haven't completely broken down yet but to me the chart looks ominous I mean there is the potential for a big break in the bond market: drop in price, up in yield above 3.50% in the 10-year maybe above 4.00% in the 30-year in the short run.

Trump, The Stock Market, & The Mid-Term Elections

Donald Trump said that if the Democrats get voted, the stock market gonna get cut in half. So, that is a pretty bold statement to say that, "the stock market is worth twice as much with me as President as it would be worth if the Democrats got in power" now, I don't know if he was referring to the Democrats taking control of the White House in 2020 or taking control of the Congress later this year.

I mean maybe the President is pre-blaming a future sell-off in the stock market on the Democrats taking control of Congress. I wouldn't put it past him if we start to see the markets selling off later in the year and the Democrats do take control even if it's only the house and the market tanks I bet that the President will say, "You see, if the Republicans had retained control of Congress then the market would still be going up."

The Trade War Continues To Escalate

This trade war continues to escalate and people still think that we're going to win and they still believe that there is some type of method to the madness in that all of these tariffs are simply a down payment on a future where all the tariffs are gone right where the goal here is free trade it's just that in order to get to free trade we have to make trade less free first.

Europe Wants The Euro To Become The World's Reserve Currency

European Commission President Jean-Claude Juncker just this week said publicly that their plan, their hope is that the Euro becomes a reserve currency that rivals the US dollar because Europe is tired of being depended on the US Dollar. 

In fact, he specifically mentioned the fact that 90 plus percent of European payments for oil are made in dollars he says, "Why is this? Why are we buying oil from Russia and paying in US dollars? It makes no sense!" And so Europe wants to wean itself from dollar dependence.

Currency Markets: ECB is Hawkish, The Fed Is A Dove

The European Central Bank (ECB) is saying "we're gonna keep inflation under 2 percent no matter what" and so to me they're taking opposite positions: the ECB is tighter and the hawkish bank and the Federal Reserve is a dove and therefore the Euro currency (EUR) on that basis alone is going to be stronger than the US Dollar (USD).

How The Federal Reserve Is Thinking About Inflation Right Now

The Federal Reserve is saying that they're gonna err on letting inflation break out, that they are fine with symmetrical inflation around 2 percent.