May 8, 2018

Inflation: The Danger To Bondholders

How comfortable are bondholders going be when inflation is above 2 percent when they're barely earning 2 percent on their bonds now? 

I mean you're not even getting 3 percent on a 10-year Treasury right now, you're getting around 2.95.

Well, if inflation is above, let's say inflation is two and a half, well you're getting two and a half percent inflation if your yield is only 2.95 you're not even getting 50 basis points. But of course after taxes you're losing money because the Treasury bond yield is not tax-free. The federal government still taxes you on the money you earn on Treasuries, so after taxes if you're getting a two point nine five percent coupon if there's two and a half percent inflation you are losing money.

May 7, 2018

Federal Reserve: Willingness To Tolerate Higher Inflation

I want to talk about what happened with the Federal Reserve this week because I think that is the most significant news of the week. In fact, I think it's the Federal Reserve's statement on Wednesday and the comments from today that's the real reason we had the 300 plus point rally in the Dow Jones Industrials Average today that's why we had the 400 plus point turnaround in the Dow on Thursday. I think it's all about the Fed and its willingness to tolerate higher inflation.

May 4, 2018

Are Rising Rates Bullish For The US Dollar?

I know people say that rising interest rates are good for the US Dollar. That's rising short-term interest rates which in theory are good for the dollar not rising long-term interest rates.

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