We Are Headed Into a Massive Recession

We are headed into a massive recession. Trump bought the economy some time with the tax cuts but all it's doing is pushing off the day of reckoning. - Peter Schiff on Fox Business

Trump Criticizes The Federal Reserve

He's been critical of the Federal Reserve for having raised rates. One of the things President Trump said apparently was that when he nominated Powell he had expected him to be a easier money guy. That he nominated him thinking that he wouldn't have all these interest rate hikes and so he's disappointed that his nominee is not being as easy when it comes to monetary policy as what he had hoped when he appointed him.

The Weak Dollar Policy

It should be obvious that Donald Trump has a weak dollar policy whether he wants to name it a weak dollar policy or not.

The Next Recession

It's not that the inversion of the yield curve causes the recession. It's that's that long rates start to fall as investors start to look beyond the expansion to the next recession and they start pricing in the next round of rate cuts.

So it's not that the inversion causes the recession it simply is a good indicator that a recession is coming so you don't need an inverted yield curve to get a recession and we're gonna have a recession this time without the yield curve inverting given how little headway the Federal Reserve was able to make in normalizing interest rates.

The Catalyst For The US Dollar Drop

The catalyst today for the US Dollar sharp reversal was more tweets from President Trump where he is expressing anger not only at the Federal Reserve right or not only at the ECB and at the Bank of China because he is accusing both Europe and China of being currency manipulators of taking advantage of us by weakening their currencies.

This was probably one of the biggest down days for the US Dollar this year - across the board weakness which is likely to continue. Believe me we're gonna have days that are gonna be much much weaker than this, I believe later in the year and of course next year and the year after that I think the dollar is gonna get particularly beaten up. 

U.S. Dollar: Forex Market Intervention Ahead?

Given Trump's accusations against Europe and China regarding currency manipulation I would not be surprised if the Treasury intervenes in forex markets to drive the dollar lower. The dollar's demise will happen on its own anyway, so intervention will only accelerate the process.