Because the bubble
popped we entered a bear market in
the US. Right now we're having our
first correction in that bear market
where you get a rally.
In a bull
market the corrections are down. Well, in
a bear market the corrections are when
the market moves up and I
think we're in one of those right now
but I think the primary trend in stocks
is down.
Jan 16, 2019
Jan 15, 2019
2008 Was Just The Warm Up
The 2008 one was just the warm up because the central banks were able to delay the consequences until the next crisis which is the one into which we are now headed.
I believe this bubble has already popped except the air is only just starting to leak out and I think we're headed for a much worse crisis in the United States in particular that will actually end up being a sovereign debt and currency crisis.
Jan 11, 2019
Powell Does Not See Any Risks Of Asset Bubbles
Chairman Jerome Powell says the Federal Reserve does not see any risks of asset bubbles, excessive debt, or inflation. Given that no one at the Federal Reserve saw those risks in 2000 or 2008, nothing has changed. Since the current risks they are blind to are much larger, they will be blindsided by a larger crisis.
Jan 10, 2019
A 180 Degree Turn On Monetary Policy
If you look at Fed Chairman Powell's most recent comments he's now backing off of his talk about continuing to shrink the balance sheet and maybe not raise interest rates anymore and so that's kind of reflating the bubble a bit but I don't think that's enough to do it.
I think the air is still going to come out of the bubble. The interest rate hikes that have already taken place are too much for the over-leveraged US economy to bear. so I think the Federal Reserve ultimately is going to go back to zero interest rates. It's not just about to slowing down the shrinking of the balance sheet.
I think they're gonna blow it back up even bigger with QE4 and of course when the Federal Reserve surprises the markets by doing a complete 180 on monetary policy, I think that you're gonna see the bottom drop out of the dollar and that's when you're really going see a big bid in the gold market.
Jan 8, 2019
An Inflationary Recession Is Coming
First of all, they're not going to raise interest rates in 2019, they're
talking about doing that but what they're
actually going to do is: they're gonna take interest rates back down to zero once it's
obvious that the economy is in recession and they're going to launch another
round of quantitative easing.
That
is going to take a very bad situation
and make it much worse because it's not
going to work like it did last time in
that it blew up a bigger bubble. This is
going to blow up in everybody's face. It's
not going to cause real estate prices to
go up or stock prices to go up.
It's gonna cause
food prices to go up gasoline prices
it's the cost of living that's gonna
rise not the level of the stock market
and so this is going to be an
inflationary recession.
Jan 4, 2019
We Are On The Precipice Of A Much Worse Crisis
It's not a volatile economy it's a
bubble economy thanks to the Federal
Reserve they inflated an even bigger
bubble on purpose than the one they
inflated by accident that popped in 2008.
The economy is in much worse
shape structurally today than it was
before it fell apart the last time so
this is the beginning of a much greater
crisis of a much greater recession than
the one that we experienced back in 2008.
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)