Gold: We Will Have A Bull Run Next Year

I think we will have a big bull run next year. I think next year gold will finish the year strong as opposed to having this Trump related sell-off. (SPDR Gold Trust ETF (GLD), Market Vectors Gold Miners ETF (GDX), Market Vectors Junior Gold Miners ETF (GDXJ), Newmont Mining (NEM), Barrick Gold (ABX), Goldcorp (GG), NovaGold (NG))

We Cannot Stop The Bubble From Popping Nor Should We Try

People are ignoring that the things they think are going to happen are impossible: "Now we are going to get fiscal stimulus, we do not need monetary stimulus." If we get the fiscal stimulus we will need the monetary stimulus more than ever to make it possible. There is no way to finance these deficits unless the Federal Reserve steps up and does it.

Of course, this is a mistake, they should not do it and that is why we are in so much trouble. But I do not think there is any way Trump can fix these problems. They are unfixable! We cannot stop the bubble from popping nor should we try.

The New Year May Start With A Sell-Off

The stock market may start the New Year with a major sell-off, just like this year. What I would do if I was sitting on a bunch of profits , I would maybe sell some S&P futures right now to lock in these prices in case there is a rush to get out in January. (SPDR S&P 500 Index ETF (SPY), Nasdaq 100 Index ETF (QQQ), iShares Russell 2000 Index ETF (IWM), SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF (DIA))

As Interest Rates Go Up, That Automatically Brings Stock Values Down

As interest rates go up, that automatically brings stock values down.

But I think it is also interesting that the same stock traders that were so worried about what would happen to the stock market if Donald Trump won, the minute he won they just started buying. All they wanted to do was to justify a move up.

People are ignoring that the things they think are going to happen are impossible. (Select Sector Financial Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLF), SPDR S&P 500 Index ETF (SPY), SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF (DIA), iShares Russell 2000 Index ETF (IWM), Nasdaq 100 Index ETF (QQQ))

The Bond Market Bubble Has Already Bursted

The bond market bubble has already bursted. Interest rates are rising and that is going to compound the problems for an already weakening economy. (iShares Barclays 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT), SPDR S&P 500 Index ETF (SPY), SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF (DIA), Nasdaq 100 Index ETF (QQQ), iShares Russell 2000 Index ETF (IWM))

The Stock Market is Overvalued

The stock market is already overvalued. Its a bubble! And just because we are going to have some tax cuts and regulatory relief, that does not undo that bubble! (SPDR S&P 500 Index ETF (SPY), SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF (DIA), iShares Russell 2000 Index ETF (IWM), Nasdaq 100 Index ETF (QQQ), Select Sector Financial Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLF))

Gold Will Rally in 2017

We are going to get more inflation but it is not a negative for gold, it is a positive for gold. And the markets were wrong about gold at the end of last year, they sold it off when the Fed raised interest rates,, gold bottomed out in January and then had a huge run. We are going to have another big run next year but next year gold is going to finish the year strong. (SPDR Gold Trust ETF (GLD), Market Vectors Gold Miners ETF (GDX), Market Vectors Junior Gold Miners ETF (GDXJ), Newmont Mining (NEM), Barrick Gold (ABX), Goldcorp (GG), NovaGold (NG))

Gold: Inflation Will Rise Much Faster Than Interest Rates

I like to see that negativity out there. Gold has gone down quite a bit since the election but if you go back over the last 15 years, gold had a pretty good track record.

It is interesting that the reason that so many people have turned bearish on gold is because they believe there will be more inflation under Donald Trump, that we are going to have larger deficits as a result of the tax cuts, increased government spending and because of the higher inflation, the Federal Reserve is going to get more aggressive and raise interest rates and somehow that increase in interest rates is going to be bad for gold. It is ridiculous! Higher inflation is good for gold!

Inflation will rise much faster than interest rates, so real interest rates are going to fall and that is when gold shines brightest. (Newmont Mining (NEM), Eldorado Gold Corp (USA)(NYSE:EGO), Goldcorp (GG), Market Vectors Gold Miners ETF (GDX), Market Vectors Junior Gold Miners ETF (GDXJ), SPDR Gold Trust ETF (GLD), Barrick Gold (ABX)

Will Donald Trump Produce Any Economic Growth?

The Federal Reserve does not seem to believe that Donald Trump is going to do anything to produce economic growth because they were more optimistic last year when they knew that Obama was going to be the President than they are now, knowing that it is going to be Donald Trump.

The Housing Market Has Been Propped Up By The Fed, Not Ready To Stand Alone

Both the housing market and the auto market have been propped up by the Federal Reserve’s cheap money and artificially low interest rates. These markets may not be ready to stand alone. (Ford (F), General Motors (GM), Tesla Motors (TSLA), iShares Dow Jones US Real Estate (ETF) (IYR), Lennar Corporation (LEN), KB Home (KBH))

Markets: If Interest Rates Go Up, The Bubble Pricks

We have a bubble economy. If interest rates go up, the bubble pricks. If you move interest rates higher, by definition, stocks and real estate are less valuable. They are more valuable the lower the rate. If interest rates go up, their values come down, multiples have to go down. (SPDR S&P 500 Index ETF (SPY), SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF (DIA), Nasdaq 100 Index ETF (QQQ), iShares Russell 2000 Index ETF (IWM), iShares Barclays 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT), iShares Dow Jones US Real Estate (ETF) (IYR))

Stock Market: The Trump Rally

This honeymoon is going on, and everybody thinks this is great and the narrative is feeding on itself but people are ignoring the big rise in interest rates and assuming none of it matters. All of a sudden higher rates do not matter because we are going to get all this extra growth from the tax cuts and from the government stimulus. Well, the rarity is if interest rates rise it does not matter about the stimulus, the sedative that will result from higher rates will more than offset it, plus the markets are assuming that higher interest rates will have no effect on U.S. asset prices or the economy. They are wrong on both those counts.

Rising Oil Prices & Interest Rates Will Negatively Impact Stock Prices

Crude oil prices and long term interest rates are continuing to surge, yet stock market traders and investors are completely ignoring what this will mean for corporate earnings and stock valuations. (SPDR S&P 500 Index ETF (SPY), iShares Russell 2000 Index ETF (IWM), SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF (DIA), Nasdaq 100 Index ETF (QQQ))

U.S. Dollar: The Bearish Case

Right now everybody is talking about how the Federal Reserve is going to tighten, how they will be raising interest rates and they have not connected the dots that all of this is impossible with what Donald Trump and the new secretary of the Treasury are proposing to do. None of this can happen against the backdrop of rising interest rates, it is impossible! It can only happen if the Federal Reserve prevents interest rates from rising by stepping into the market with massive rounds of Quantitative Easing (QE). If people understood that, the Dollar would be falling and not rising.

Commodity Prices Are Going To Rise

I think that you are going to see a move up in commodities because of increased inflationary pressures brought by central banks all around the world. There will be a lot more inflation and commodity prices are going to rise substantially as paper currencies lose value. (Nymex Crude Oil Futures, United States Oil Fund LP ETF (USO), SPDR Gold Trust ETF (GLD), Market Vectors Gold Miners ETF (GDX), Market Vectors Junior Gold Miners ETF (GDXJ), Nymex Copper Futures, iShares Silver ETF (SLV))

If Mortgage Rates Keep Rising Real Estate Prices Will Drop 20 to 30%

Mortgage rates can certainly keep rising. I would not be surprised to see the rate north of 5 percent by the time of Trump`s inauguration and maybe we can be at 6 percent or more early next year. I think we will have a 20 to 30 percent decline in real estate prices if mortgage rates are at 6 percent and what is that going to do to the banks? (Bank of America (BAC), Goldman Sachs (GS), J.P. Morgan (JPM), citigroup (C), Wells Fargo (WFC), Deutsche Bank AG (USA)(NYSE:DB))

Bond Market: The Beginning Of A Huge Collapse

Just look at what happened to the long end of the curve after the election. This can be the beginning of a huge collapse in the bond market. (iShares Barclays 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT), U.S. Treasuries, iShares iBoxx $ High Yid Corp Bond ETF (HYG))

Investors Should Be Selling The U.S. Dollar, Not Buying

People who are buying U.S. Dollars are doing the wrong thing, they should be doing the reverse. The U.S. Dollar is making 13 or 14 year highs, it is more than a decade high. I think the U.S. Dollar is in very dangerous territory up here. A lot of speculators maybe are being caught, maybe they are being stopped out of their trades, because again, more inflation is not good for the U.S. Dollar, the dollar will lose purchasing power.