The Markets Are Beginning To Look Beyond These Rate Hikes

The dollar market is acting much different than the the gold market rather than rising the dollar has been falling. Normally you get some strength of the US Dollar when the probability of an interest rate hike rises because after all higher rates everybody thinks that's bullish for the dollar and so as the probability of a rate hike increases so too does the value of the dollar but that didn't happen this time in fact the dollar closed the day at about a six-month low in the dollar index.

I think what's happening is the markets are beginning to look beyond these rate hikes to see the next rate cut understanding that the Fed is not going to come close to delivering the type of tightening that it had been indicating was coming that we are not going to normalize interest rates.

Federal Reserve: Raising Rates Into A Recession

It's quite possible that the Federal Reserve does raise interest rates in June even if it ends up that it turns out in hindsight that they raised rates in a recession. (SPDR S&P 500 Index ETF (SPY), SPDR Gold Trust ETF (GLD))

Gold Will Rally Before The Fed Raises Rates

I think the gold price is going to rise well before the Fed gets around to raising rates in June if in fact they raise rates. (SPDR Gold Trust ETF (GLD), Gold Futures, Market Vectors Gold Miners ETF (GDX), Market Vectors Junior Gold Miners ETF (GDXJ))

Why Is The Fed Willing To Keep Raising Rates?

One of the reasons this might be the case is because the Federal Reserve is more concerned about having some ammunition to fight the next recession rather than simply postponing the onset, meaning that they want to get interest rates further above zero before the recession officially begins so that once it's here they have more room to cut interest rates.

But also I think another reason that the Fed has been more willing to raise interest rates has to do with the action in the US stock market. I thought that the Federal Reserve would be reluctant to raise interest rates for fear of how the higher rates might impact the stock market but it seems like the stock market has found another prop and is no longer simply relying on cheap money. It's now also relying on hope and optimism surrounding the election of Donald Trump and the idea that somehow he is going to make America great again which includes making the stock market great again with deregulation and tax cuts and all sorts of economic stimulus.

So I think because of this the Fed may feel that it doesn't have to provide as much support because the stock market is rallying in the face of these rate hikes.

The Fed Will Raise Rates Again in June

Following Friday's slightly better than expected non-farm payroll report the probability of a June interest rate hike is now near one hundred percent. The markets are now certain that a quarter point hike is coming in June and in fact if the Federal Reserve does raise interest rates by a quarter point that will bring the floor of the official rate finally up to 1 percent. (SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF (DIA), SPDR S&P 500 Index ETF (SPY), Nasdaq 100 Index ETF (QQQ), iShares Russell 2000 Index ETF (IWM))

Currencies: U.S. Dollar Index May Drop To 60

The U.S. Dollar can fall rather substantially from here. The last time the Dollar Index fell, it bottomed out around 70. So, I think this time it might fall as low as 60 before anybody really gets nervous. 

The Bullish Case For The Euro Currency

I think the European Central Bank (ECB) is going to move to a tightening rhetoric, to a tightening bias and they may even start to raise interest rates given how quickly the inflation rate is accelarating in Europe!

Monetary Policy: Fed Will Ease, ECB May Tighten!

The U.S. Economy (GDP) is breaking down as European inflation is breaking out. The Federal Reserve easing monetary policy and European Central Bank tightening monetary policy is not the policy divergence markets expect! (EuroStoxx 50 Index, Dax Index, CAC 40 Index, SPDR S&P 500 Index ETF (SPY), SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF (DIA))

Weakest Economic Growth in 3 Years!

First quarter GDP growth was the the weakest in 3 years for the first quarter. Why is GDP growth so weak? Well, one reason is because the Federal Reserve raised interest rates even though they barely raised them. Imagine how deep of a recession we would have if the Federal Reserve had delivered the 3 or 4 interest rate hikes in 2016!

Bearish On The U.S. Bond Market

This time as the U.S. Dollar goes down, it is eventually going to take the bond market down with it. But right now, we have another rally in the bond market, interest rates are falling because people are starting to worry about the weakening U.S. Economy. (iShares Barclays 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT), ProShares UltraShort Lehman 20+ Year ETF (TBT), 10- year U.S. Treasuries)

Trump Has Not Changed Anything Yet

It's business as usual. Obamacare is here to stay, we are not replacing it, we are not even replacing Janet Yellen, it seems that he is ready to renominate her, we are dropping bombs in the Middle East, so what has changed? Nothing.

Money: Gold, Crypto-Currencies

I do not like any of these crypto-currencies. It does not mean that they cannot go up if people are willing to buy them. It`s not money because it has no value other than its use as a medium of exchange. You need to have intrinsic value. Gold has intrinsic value, it has real physical properties that have been desired for thousands of years. Gold became money because of how valuable it was! (SPDR Gold Trust ETF (GLD))

The Economy Is Extremely Weak

The economy is extremely weak. That is why Trump is the President. We are dangerously close to an official recession, I think unofficially we have been in a recession for a long time. (SPDR S&P 500 Index ETF (SPY), SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF (DIA))

Nothing Has Really Changed With Trump

It's business as usual. Obamacare is here to stay, we are not replacing it, we are not even replacing Janet Yellen, it seems that he is ready to renominate her, we are dropping bombs in the Middle East, so what has changed? Nothing.

U.S. Dollar & Bond Market: Going Down

This time as the U.S. Dollar goes down, it is eventually going to take the bond market down with it. But right now, we have another rally in the bond market, interest rates are falling because people are starting to worry about the weakening U.S. Economy.

An Economic Recession Is Looming

We are very, very close to a recession, if not already in a recession.

Gold Stocks: Big Upside Potential

I think at this point I would just be buying these gold stocks because I think that gold traders are just being too timid and they do not appreciate the explosive nature of the rally that I think is in the immediate future in the price of gold. (Newmont Mining (NEM), Barrick Gold (ABX), NovaGold (NG), Market Vectors Gold Miners ETF (GDX), Market Vectors Junior Gold Miners ETF (GDXJ))

Gold Stocks: Climbing A Very Steep Wall Of Worry

The reason these gold stocks are not moving higher is because we are climbing a very steep wall of worry. Because there is not a lot of conviction in the gold traders, they still do not get it. They still think that the interest rate hikes are bullish for the U.S. Dollar and bearish for gold. (Newmont Mining (NEM), Barrick Gold (ABX), Goldcorp (GG), NovaGold (NG), Market Vectors Gold Miners ETF (GDX), Market Vectors Junior Gold Miners ETF (GDXJ))

Gold: The Correction Is Over

I think the correction in the price of gold is over but I do think there is some psychological resistance around this 1,300 level but we are going to blow through it and have a quick march up to 1,350. (SPDR Gold Trust ETF (GLD), Market Vectors Gold Miners ETF (GDX))

The U.S. Dollar Is Overvalued

I believe Donald Trump is correct. The U.S. Dollar is overvalued but he is wrong in his view of how the overpriced U.S. Dollar impacts the U.S. Economy. Because the dollar is overvalued we have an artificially high standard of living and when the dollar starts declining is going to take the American standard of living down with it!

Trump Rally, Recession

We are not getting the Obamacare repeal, we are not getting the comprehensive tax reform, I mean we are not getting anything and still the stock market has not surrounded any of the gains from the Trump rally that was based on the expectation of a bunch of things that will not happen. What is going to happen is a recession! (SPDR S&P 500 Index ETF (SPY), SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF (DIA), Nasdaq 100 Index ETF (QQQ), iShares Russell 2000 Index ETF (IWM))

Trump Rally Was Based On Things That Aren't Materializing

We had this huge stock market rally based on repealing Obamacare, that did not happen, based on comprehensive tax reform and that did not happen either! (SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF (DIA), SPDR S&P 500 Index ETF (SPY), Nasdaq 100 Index ETF (QQQ))

Geopolitical Uncertainty Is Bullish For Gold

In uncertain times, investors and traders are drawn to the gold market. The precious metal proves it once again as the price of gold rose after the United States launched an attack on a Syrian airbase. (SPDR Gold Trust ETF (GLD), Market Vectors Gold Miners ETF (GDX), Market Vectors Junior Gold Miners ETF (GDXJ))

The Dollar’s Demise

The Dollar’s demise may make it almost impossible for any other currency to fill that role of world reserve currency. I think what’s more likely is we go back to gold being the primary monetary reserve. (SPDR Gold Trust ETF (GLD))

The Federal Reserve Is Actively Engaged in a Propaganda

Right now, I think the Federal Reserve is actively engaged in a propaganda effort to try to convince everybody that the economy is stronger than it is by raising interest rates even though the economic growth forecasts are collapsing. (Select Sector Financial Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLF), SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF (DIA), SPDR S&P 500 Index ETF (SPY), Nasdaq 100 Index ETF (QQQ))

The Correlation Between Stocks & The Dollar

If we look at the correlation right now, the U.S. Dollar is starting to trade with the stock market, meaning that when the stock market is up, the U.S. Dollar is up, and when the stock market is down, the U.S. Dollar is going down.

Worst Time To Buy U.S. Stocks!

This is the worst time to be buying U.S. stocks.

(Select Sector Financial Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLF), SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF (DIA), SPDR S&P 500 Index ETF (SPY), Nasdaq 100 Index ETF (QQQ), iShares Russell 2000 Index ETF (IWM))

Stock Market: The Big, Fat, Ugly Bubble

When Donald Trump run for office he called the stock market a big, fat, ugly bubble. Well, it is certainly bigger, fatter and uglier now. (iShares Russell 2000 Index ETF (IWM), SPDR S&P 500 Index ETF (SPY), SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF (DIA), Nasdaq 100 Index ETF (QQQ), Select Sector Financial Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLF))

Gold Will Likely Take Out Resistance At $1,260

Gold closed above $1250, we have resistance at $1260. I think we will take it out. (Gold Futures, SPDR Gold Trust ETF (GLD), Market Vectors Gold Miners ETF (GDX), Market Vectors Junior Gold Miners ETF (GDXJ))

Obamacare Is Going To End, One Way Or Another

Obamacare is going to end, one way or another. (Health Care SPDR ETF (XLV), UnitedHealth Group (UNH))

Trump Agenda: No Comprehensive Tax Reform

I don't think we are going to have any kind of comprehensive tax reform. I think that it would be very productive but I also think it should happen in a context of major reductions in government spending.

A Bullish Catalyst For The Price Of Gold

What I think it's going to really accelerate the price of gold going up is the fact that interest rates are not going up nearly as much as the market anticipates. (SPDR Gold Trust ETF (GLD), Market Vectors Gold Miners ETF (GDX), Market Vectors Junior Gold Miners ETF (GDXJ))

The US Economy Is A Mess!

The economy is a mess! Atlanta Fed is now looking for 1.2 percent first quarter GDP growth. It was looking at 3.4 percent growth on February 1st. We are dangerously close to an economic recession.

U.S. Economy: Department Store Sales Are Collapsing!

Look at what it's happening to Department Stores sales. Department Stores sales are collapsing, this is the worst decline since the 2008 financial crisis. They are falling off the edge of a cliff. (Macy's Inc (NYSE:M), J C Penney Company Inc (NYSE:JCP),  Nordstrom, Inc. (NYSE:JWN), Ross Stores, Inc.(NASDAQ:ROST))

U.S. Economy, Crude Oil Prices and Interest Rates

We are dangerously close to an economic recession in America. Gasoline demand is down and the is why oil prices are going lower. The interest rate hike is going to make the problem worse. (Energy Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLE), Select Sector Financial Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLF), SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF (DIA), SPDR S&P 500 Index ETF (SPY), United States Oil Fund LP ETF (USO), Nymex Crude Oil Futures)

Will This Rate Hike Prick The Stock Market Bubble?

This is a gigantic bubble and it has gotten bigger since we elected Trump. Will this next interest rate hike prick the bubble? There is a chance. Eventually the air is going to come out of this bubble. (Select Sector Financial Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLF), SPDR S&P 500 Index ETF (SPY), SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF (DIA), iShares Russell 2000 Index ETF (IWM), Nasdaq 100 Index ETF (QQQ))

Healthcare Reform Is Going To Be a Disaster

The Republicans on Capitol Hill with the blessing of President Donald Trump are trying to repeal one big healthcare program and replace it with another big government entitlement. It is not going to work, it is going to be another disaster just wrapped up in a different package. (UnitedHealth Group (UNH), iShares NASDAQ Biotechnology Index ETF (IBB), Health Care SPDR ETF (XLV))

The Real Reason Why Yellen Will Raise Interest Rates

I think the reason the Federal Reserve feels confident to raise interest rates is because the Dow Jones Industrials Average (DJIA) is trading at 21,000. That's why. Just like it felt confident to raise interest rates the first time, in December of 2015 because the markets were giving a false signal that the hike was OK but of course after the rates were hiked the market rallied and then it dumped. We had the worst January in the history of the stock market. (SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF (DIA), SPDR S&P 500 Index ETF (SPY))

A Fed Interest Rate Hike Is Coming Up

According to Goldman Sachs (GS), the odds of a Federal Reserve interest rate hike coming up at the March meeting which is less than two weeks away is now 95 percent. (SPDR S&P 500 Index ETF (SPY), SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF (DIA), iShares Russell 2000 Index ETF (IWM), Nasdaq 100 Index ETF (QQQ))

Trump Wants To Make The Government Bigger, Not Smaller!

If we want to strengthen the economy we have to liberate it from the shackles of government. We have to weaken the government  to strenghten the economy. We need a much smaller government. But that is not what Donald Trump wants. Trump spent most of his speech talking about ways to make the government bigger! (SPDR S&P 500 Index ETF (SPY), SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF (DIA), Nasdaq 100 Index ETF (QQQ))

Bitcoin: Too Volatile For Being Considered As Money

The volatility of Bitcoin is too great on a daily basis to price in it. It is a speculative asset, people own  Bitcoins because they think it will be more valuable in the future.

Bitcoin Is Not Money, It's a Speculative Asset!

Bitcoin is not digital gold, it is digital fools gold. Today's Bitcoins can be tomorrow's Bitty babies. The whole principal behind Bitcoin was to replicate the properties that made gold uniquely suited to be money, act as an alternative to fiat currencies but it is not really viable as money, it is a potential medium of exchange but it is not a store of value. Meanwhile nobody really uses it as a medium of exchange, it is a speculative asset, people own it because they think it will be more valuable in the future but it has no intrinsic value of itself.

A Gold Correction Will Be A Great Buying Opportunity

An interesting observation, gold stocks were down on Friday, they were also down on Thursday, in fact they had a sell-off at the very end of the day. I think the last 2 percent rise in the price of gold we had about a 4 percent drop in gold prices. Now, gold stocks rose early on and they did a very good job of forecasting this gold rally. So, the question is, are gold stocks now actively forecasting a sell-off, a profit taking or a correction in the gold rally? That is possible and if that is the case that is going to be a great buying opportunity because I do not think the correction will be very long lived or that deep and I do expect much higher prices later in the year. (SPDR Gold Trust ETF (GLD), Market Vectors Gold Miners ETF (GDX), Market Vectors Junior Gold Miners ETF (GDXJ))

Gold Is Still Trending Up

The price of gold was up again last week, got as high as 1,260 dollars an ounce. On my last podcast I said gold was building a lot of resistance at 1,240 and that when we took it out we would see a bit of a jump and that is exactly what happened.

Greenspan Expects Stagflation, Bullish On Gold Prices

Alan Greenspan is very bullish on the price of gold. He talked favorably about the price of gold. Yet the one thing that Greenspan still does not want to do is to accept any responsibilities. He does not want to accept the blame for all the bad things that he now thinks are coming. (SPDR Gold Trust ETF (GLD), Market Vectors Gold Miners ETF (GDX), Market Vectors Junior Gold Miners ETF (GDXJ))

The Stock Market Is Going Way Down In Gold Terms

A good way to measure the stock market is in terms of gold. Let's say right now the Dow jones Industrials Average (DJIA) is worth about sixteen ounces of gold. Let's say the stock market gets cut in half, them it is worth eight ounces of gold or the stock market stays the same and gold prices double from here, it's worth eight ounces of gold too. The stock market in terms of gold is going way down! I think it's going a lot lower than eight. (SPDR Gold Trust ETF (GLD), SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF (DIA))

U.S. Economy: We Have To Allow This Economy To Restructure

We need to let interest rates go up, we need to let the chips fall where they may. If we do that now after interest ratings having been so low for so long we are going t have a financial crisis worse than 2008. But at this point we all just have to suck it up and bear it. And if that means a lot of people losing money, banks failing, and a lot of people lose their jobs, that is what is has to happen! 

We have to clean the house. We have to allow this economy to restructure so that we can rebuild it the right way and not rebuild it based on government central planning but let the free markets rebuild it. This was what made America great in the first place.

Inflation Has Already Surpassed Yellen's Target

Year over year CPI (consumer Price Index) is now up 2.50%. That is the official number, obviously prices are going up a lot faster than that. But according to the government they are going up at 2.50%. If you take out food and energy and just look at the core, year over year changes 2.30%. 

Remember the Federal Reserve says their target is 2%. And when Yellen testified this week she said she was confident that we are going to hit it. Well, we are already surpassing it! (SPDR Gold Trust ETF (GLD), iShares Silver ETF (SLV), Market Vectors Gold Miners ETF (GDX), Market Vectors Junior Gold Miners ETF (GDXJ))

The Federal Reserve Knows Another Crisis Is Coming

The reason the Federal Reserve has acted so slowly in increasing interest rates is because they know another crisis is coming and they just hope they do not get blamed for it. (SPDR S&P 500 Index ETF (SPY), SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF (DIA), iShares Russell 2000 Index ETF (IWM))

The Largest Debtor Nation in the History of the World!

The accumulating effects of the annual current account deficits is that we are the largest debtor nation in the history of the world. We owe more money to other countries than all other debtor nations combined.