Madness of the Crowds: Bitcoin

Charles Mackay wrote a book, Extraordinary Popular Delusions and the Madness of the Crowds and I think if they republished that book they should add a chapter so they can put Bitcoin in there because it's all the same mentality, that's the lesson. Everybody (investing in Bitcoin) should read that book.

The Federal Reserve Will Not Upset The Status Quo

The Federal Reserve does not want to do anything that might upset the status quo. And at this point, the Fed is between a rock and a hard place. The central bank can normalize interest rates, which will ultimately pop the stock market bubble, or it can continue with its easy monetary policies and wreck the US Dollar. The Federal Reserve will ultimately sacrifice the currency (US Dollar) on the altar of the stock market.

Related trading instruments: SPDR S&P 500 Index ETF (SPY)

Real Vision: Discussing Gold and the US Dollar

Peter Schiff on Real Vision discussing the markets in general and gold in particular.

Related trading instruments: SPDR Gold Trust ETF (GLD), Market Vectors Gold Miners ETF (GDX), Market Vectors Junior Gold Miners ETF (GDXJ)

The Downside Risks Of Gold & Bitcoin

Bitcoin is approximately $6,000 a coin right now, It could be $600 a month from now. We don't know that, I mean it could be higher, it could be $10,000! Gold it's not likely to crash and if it goes down, you know gold has a real cost of mine and there's a lot of demand for it so there's a limit really. I mean if the price goes down there's not going to be any more of it made. (SPDR Gold Trust ETF (GLD))

Tax Cuts: Bullish For Gold, Bearish For The Dollar

If we get these tax cuts the US Dollar is going down, not up and gold is gonna go way up not down! (SPDR Gold Trust ETF (GLD), Market Vectors Gold Miners ETF (GDX), Market Vectors Junior Gold Miners ETF (GDXJ), iShares Silver ETF (SLV))

The Problem With Bitcoin

The only person who would be willing to buy my Bitcoin is somebody who believes he can also sell it to somebody else at a higher price.

So you always need the idea that there's always gonna be somebody else willing to buy my asset at a higher price than I paid because there's no other use for it. You can't do any thing with it, it's not going to generate any income if it just sits there, you can't use it in industry, there's no actual function that it serves other than my ability to sell it to somebody else.

Bitcoin Moved Through Another Milestone

Bitcoin has moved through another milestone over the weekend we were trading above 6,000 I think we got close to 6,200 not sure if we got above it as there are so many different exchanges that's hard for me to keep track. I know as I'm recording now we're at about 5,000 we did get back down to almost 5600 during the day so again the volatility continues but the direction is clearly up. I would put the support now around 5,000 that used to be resistance so at this point 5,000 or so or maybe just below is the support in the market right now. 

There was some selling intraday and then you had billionaire Saudi Prince Alwaleed talking on CNBC and they were asking the guy a lot of questions about a lot of things and obviously you know he's pretty influential because he oversees an enormous amount of money, you've got all the kingdoms oil revenues coming in and so he's got a lot of money to invest and he has a huge portfolio, he is a big shareholder, he owns a lot of US stocks as well and he was asked about Bitcoin and cryptocurrencies.

The Saudi Prince was very negative about Bitcoin. He said it was an Enron in the making that he does not understand it, he thinks it's gonna crash and I think what's interesting though about the Saudi Prince`s criticism is what he points out as being the problems are exactly the benefits that the people who are buying see in the currency. I mean if at this point there's lots of people who are just buying it because it's going up so they don't really have any other allegiance to other than the fact that it's going up.

Video: New Fed Chair, Stock Market and Gold

Peter Schiff discusses the gold outlook with RT.com

Related trading instruments: SPDR Gold Trust ETF (GLD), Market Vectors Gold Miners ETF (GDX), Market Vectors Junior Gold Miners ETF (GDXJ)

Rising Inflation Will Be Bullish For Gold

Peter Schiff explains in this podcast why a rise in U.S. inflation will be bullish for the precious metals and at the same time bearish for the U.S. Dollar. 

"The reality is, higher inflation is not going to produce a tighter monetary policy. The Federal Reserve is going to have to ignore the higher inflation which means the inflation is going to get even worse!"

Related trading instruments: SPDR Gold Trust ETF (GLD), Market Vectors Gold Miners ETF (GDX)

This Is Bullish For Gold

Ultimately if the Federal Reserve has to make a choice between fighting inflation and unemployment because the Federal Reserve believes in the Phillips curve, the trade-off between inflation and employment, the Federal Reserve will always choose to fight unemployment or to prop up the labor market and sacrifice its inflation goal. (SPDR Gold Trust ETF (GLD), Market Vectors Gold Miners ETF (GDX), Market Vectors Junior Gold Miners ETF (GDXJ))

There's Optimism Everywhere Except Gold

There's optimism everywhere except when it comes to gold and that's the one place where people should be optimistic and it's the one place they're not. (Market Vectors Gold Miners ETF (GDX), Market Vectors Junior Gold Miners ETF (GDXJ), SPDR Gold Trust ETF (GLD), iShares Silver ETF (SLV))

Investors Are More Convinced That They Can't Lose Than At Any Prior Time ($VIX, $SPY, $VXX)

If you look at that the VIX is at all-time record lows so investors have never been this complacent about the US stock market ever and pretty much all of those measures that measure fear and confidence are at the highest readings they've ever been even though the US stock market is extremely expensive and it's only been this expensive during previous bubbles, near the peaks of previous bubbles. But what's different about this bubble is it’s bigger but people are even more confident now that it's not a bubble. You have less fear, less anxiety, investors are more convinced that they can't lose than at any prior time despite the fact that ww actually probably have more risk now than during any of the previous bubbles.

Stock Market: Optimism and Enthusiasm

Markets continue to move up day after day, it's almost like a melt up at this point of optimism and enthusiasm despite the enormity of the problems that everybody wants to sweep under the rug and you got a mountain of stuff already underneath it. I think the newest catalyst that is fueling the euphoria is the anticipation of these tax cuts that are coming. (SPDR S&P 500 Index ETF (SPY), iShares Russell 2000 Index ETF (IWM), Nasdaq 100 Index ETF (QQQ), SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF (DIA))

Fed Nonsense

The FOMC minutes indicate the Federal Reserve is worried that inflation will not be high enough. That is the last thing the Federal Reserve should be worried about! (SPDR Gold Trust ETF (GLD), iShares Silver ETF (SLV))

The Fed Will Not Be Able To Save The Stock Market

The Federal Reserve won't be able to rescue investors during the next stock market crash, like they did in the years following the 2000 and 2008 crashes. They were successful in reflating yet another bubble but I think this bubble will be the similar fate as the prior two. The difference is, the third time is not going to be the charm - it's going to be three strikes you're out. Let's say the Dow goes to 30,000, if it gets cut in half, that's 15,000 - that's still a low lower than it is right now. (SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF (DIA), SPDR S&P 500 Index ETF (SPY), Nasdaq 100 Index ETF (QQQ))

Renewed Weakness In The US Dollar

Gold is still hanging out below 1300 and the renewed weakness in the US Dollar, I think part of the renewed weakness in the US Dollar has to do with the idea that maybe all these tax cuts aren't going to pass that this Republican plan or the Trump plan that was outlined it's gonna have a hard time getting through Congress.

Stock Market: Optimism and Euphoria

Markets continue to move up day after day, it's almost like a melt up at this point of optimism and enthusiasm despite the enormity of the problems that everybody wants to sweep under the rug and  you got a mountain of stuff already underneath it. I think the newest catalyst that is fueling the euphoria is the anticipation of these tax cuts that are coming. (SPDR S&P 500 Index ETF (SPY), iShares Russell 2000 Index ETF (IWM), Nasdaq 100 Index ETF (QQQ), SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF (DIA))

US Dollar Recent Strength Is Just Noise

I don't think anything's really gonna happen there (the vote in Spain with Catalonia voting to separate from Spain) I mean pretty much everybody the EU is saying if these guys leave we're not gonna recognize them. Spain is saying that they don't recognize the validity of the election...so I doubt anything's gonna happen there but I guess all this uncertainty weighing on the Euro and that helped prop up the US Dollar which has continued to rise ever since the supposed bullish comments by Janet Yellen about hiking rates and shrinking the balance sheet. So now we're back up to about 93.50 on the US Dollar Index, gold back down about $1280 or so but I think the fundamentals are still there for the weak dollar I think this is all a bunch of noise.

International Stocks Beating U.S. Stocks

US stock markets were overshadowed by international markets thanks in large part to the weakness in the US dollar. The US Dollar did recover some of its losses in this closing week of the quarter. I believe again a bit of a dead cat bounce as I think the dollar is probably going to have its weakest quarter of the year in the fourth quarter.

Related trading instruments: Dax 30 Index, EuroStoxx 50 Index, Nikkei 225, FTSE 100 Index, HSI Index, Kospi Index;

Trump Tweets About The Record Highs In The Stock Market

Donald Trump was tweeting about the record highs in the stock market earlier this morning. Of course when we were having record highs under Obama it was a bubble and it didn't matter but now that it's his bubble it's now a bull market and it simply shows what a great job he's doing as President.

Related trading instruments: SPDR S&P 500 Index ETF (SPY), Nasdaq 100 Index ETF (QQQ), iShares Russell 2000 Index ETF (IWM)