Stock Market: It's a Major Decline

We didn't have a black Monday like 1987 as it wasn't a 20 percent decline but it was the biggest point decline in the history of the stock market by a large magnitude. We were down 1,175 points and we were down 1,600 points at the intraday low. So this is the biggest point decline ever but in percentage terms it is in the top 20 (I think it was like number 14 or something) but it is a major decline and we rarely see declines this big. (SPDR S&P 500 Index ETF (SPY), SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF (DIA), Nasdaq 100 Index ETF (QQQ))

Stock Market: This Brings Back Vivid Memories Of 2008

Listening to all the so-called experts on financial TV reassuring investors that there is nothing to worry about, and that the fundamentals are sound, brings back vivid memories of 2008, as that's exactly what the same experts were saying just before the financial crisis. (SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF (DIA), Nasdaq 100 Index ETF (QQQ), SPDR S&P 500 Index ETF (SPY))

Stock Market Correction: The Start of Something Much Bigger

A three percent correction is pretty normal except we haven't had one in a long time and the question is is this the start of something more ominous or is this just a small correction and you know what I think there's a lot of evidence that it is the start of something much bigger part of the evidence is that nobody is concerned nobody is worried there's maximum complacency. (SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF (DIA), SPDR S&P 500 Index ETF (SPY), Nasdaq 100 Index ETF (QQQ))

Stock Market: The Hidden Risks

In a recent article with Seeking Alpha, Peter Schiff highlights the hidden risks that might disrupt the stock market in th near future:

"The stock market is rising despite the fact that there are very, very negative factors that are building, that are hiding in plain sight, that everybody is ignoring.”

"Everybody thinks the economy is in great shape because they think the Fed solved the problem. No, they didn’t. They made the problem much worse! They made the problem that they created worse. But the people who think they solved it are the same people who didn’t understand it before. And they got blindsided in ’08 and they’re going to get blindsided again because they never learned from their mistakes.”

Related trading instruments: SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF (DIA), SPDR S&P 500 Index ETF (SPY), Nasdaq 100 Index ETF (QQQ)

Stock Market: Heading For A Crisis

This is the best start since 2006 and of course people who were buying stocks in 2006 had no idea of the magnitude of the financial crisis that would hit the market in 2008 well the same people are even more clueless today because the crisis that we're heading for is going to be much much bigger much worse than the one in 2008. (SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF (DIA), SPDR S&P 500 Index ETF (SPY), Nasdaq 100 Index ETF (QQQ), iShares Russell 2000 Index ETF (IWM))

US Stock Market: This Never Happened Before In History

I think this is the first year that the Dow Jones Industrials Average (DJIA) has ever gained 5,000 points in a single year. In fact, the Dow Jones was up every month of 2017. That's never happened before in history.

In fact, we've gone 14 consecutive months without a decline and not only were we up every month but 2017 represented the lowest year ever of stock market volatility meaning that even though the market was going up it barely ever went down so it never made anybody nervous.

Related trading instruments: SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF (DIA), iShares Russell 2000 Index ETF (IWM), Nasdaq 100 Index ETF (QQQ), SPDR S&P 500 Index ETF (SPY)

Stock Market: The Trump Rally

Where Trump is is getting into trouble is by claiming that the stock market going up is no longer a bubble that now this is just a real bull market that reflects the improvement of the fundamentals since he's been elected.

That's not the case. This is simply more air into the same bubble and this bubble is going to burst and I think unfortunately now that Trump has branded it you know just like it was one of his buildings he's put the big Trump marker on it, when this thing pops it's he's gonna have to take the blame. (SPDR S&P 500 Index ETF (SPY), Nasdaq 100 Index ETF (QQQ), SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF (DIA), iShares Russell 2000 Index ETF (IWM))

The Appeal of International Stocks

People who are in the US stock market are overlooking much better returns from much better valuation levels that are happening overseas. So, I think people should take advantage of the overpriced US stock market plus the overpriced US dollar and sell and move money abroad get into the international markets. (SPDR S&P 500 Index ETF (SPY), Nasdaq 100 Index ETF (QQQ), iShares MSCI Emerging Markets Index ETF (EEM))

Stock Market: The Valuations Here Are Extreme

The valuations here really are extreme, the complacency is also extreme. I mean investors are willing to pay very high prices and have very little worry that the stock market is going to go down.

People have very short memories, I mean we've had two major 50% declines in the stock market this century. Since 2000 we've had the market cut in half twice and it could easily happen again yet nobody seems concerned. 

Related trading instruments: SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF (DIA), SPDR S&P 500 Index ETF (SPY), Nasdaq 100 Index ETF (QQQ), iShares Russell 2000 Index ETF (IWM)

Trump, Stock Market & Consumer Confidence

So we have the stock market at all time highs, we have consumer confidence high yet Donald Trump's popularity has never been lower! (SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF (DIA), SPDR S&P 500 Index ETF (SPY), Nasdaq 100 Index ETF (QQQ), iShares Russell 2000 Index ETF (IWM))

US Stock Market: Complacency, Overvaluation

I think if you look at the amount of complacency relative to the overvaluation stocks have really never been this expensive and people have never been this sure that they're not going to go down.

Related trading instruments: SPDR S&P 500 Index ETF (SPY), iShares Russell 2000 Index ETF (IWM), SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF (DIA), Nasdaq 100 Index ETF (QQQ)

The Federal Reserve Will Not Upset The Status Quo

The Federal Reserve does not want to do anything that might upset the status quo. And at this point, the Fed is between a rock and a hard place. The central bank can normalize interest rates, which will ultimately pop the stock market bubble, or it can continue with its easy monetary policies and wreck the US Dollar. The Federal Reserve will ultimately sacrifice the currency (US Dollar) on the altar of the stock market.

Related trading instruments: SPDR S&P 500 Index ETF (SPY)

The Fed Will Not Be Able To Save The Stock Market

The Federal Reserve won't be able to rescue investors during the next stock market crash, like they did in the years following the 2000 and 2008 crashes. They were successful in reflating yet another bubble but I think this bubble will be the similar fate as the prior two. The difference is, the third time is not going to be the charm - it's going to be three strikes you're out. Let's say the Dow goes to 30,000, if it gets cut in half, that's 15,000 - that's still a low lower than it is right now. (SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF (DIA), SPDR S&P 500 Index ETF (SPY), Nasdaq 100 Index ETF (QQQ))

Stock Market: Optimism and Euphoria

Markets continue to move up day after day, it's almost like a melt up at this point of optimism and enthusiasm despite the enormity of the problems that everybody wants to sweep under the rug and  you got a mountain of stuff already underneath it. I think the newest catalyst that is fueling the euphoria is the anticipation of these tax cuts that are coming. (SPDR S&P 500 Index ETF (SPY), iShares Russell 2000 Index ETF (IWM), Nasdaq 100 Index ETF (QQQ), SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF (DIA))

Trump Tweets About The Record Highs In The Stock Market

Donald Trump was tweeting about the record highs in the stock market earlier this morning. Of course when we were having record highs under Obama it was a bubble and it didn't matter but now that it's his bubble it's now a bull market and it simply shows what a great job he's doing as President.

Related trading instruments: SPDR S&P 500 Index ETF (SPY), Nasdaq 100 Index ETF (QQQ), iShares Russell 2000 Index ETF (IWM)

Federal Reserve: A Cosmetic Reduction In Its Balance Sheet

Even if the Federal Reserve does get away with a cosmetic reduction in its balance sheet, the total will be completely reversed by the first month of QE4. (SPDR Gold Trust ETF (GLD), SPDR S&P 500 Index ETF (SPY), Nasdaq 100 Index ETF (QQQ), iShares Russell 2000 Index ETF (IWM), SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF (DIA))

Foreign Stocks Are Very Cheap Relative to US Stocks

If you want to invest in stocks do what I'm doing. Invest internationally, invest in foreign stocks. The valuation gap is enormous you've never had foreign stocks so cheap relative to two US stocks. (iShares MSCI Emerging Markets Index ETF (EEM), SPDR S&P 500 Index ETF (SPY), Nasdaq 100 Index ETF (QQQ))

Markets: Trump Scandal, A Crash In Brazil

So this should rattle confidence as should the drop in the stock market if it continues. But despite that this drop is not very large, I mean look at what's happening in Brazil.  The Brazilian market is getting obliterated, it's crashed, I mean you got a lot of these Brazilian stocks today are down 10 to 20 percent based on a political scandal in Brazil where they they have a recording of the president of Brazil offering a bribe and they've got that on audio recording. 

The market is crashing because they're calling for resignation or impeachment there now of course it's the same problem here although I guess they've got a better case against the Brazilian president.

This shows you what can actually happen with a market that's smaller when everybody wants to get through the same door at the same time, the liquidity is not there and prices collapse.

The same thing could eventually happen to the United States but of course if we had a drop today like they're experiencing the Brazil the Federal Reserve would be out there, they would be cutting rates they would be telegraphic QE4 they would be doing whatever they could to try to reverse the decline in the market. (SPDR S&P 500 Index ETF (SPY), SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF (DIA), Nasdaq 100 Index ETF (QQQ), iShares MSCI Brazil Index (ETF) (EWZ))

The Fed Will Raise Rates Again in June

Following Friday's slightly better than expected non-farm payroll report the probability of a June interest rate hike is now near one hundred percent. The markets are now certain that a quarter point hike is coming in June and in fact if the Federal Reserve does raise interest rates by a quarter point that will bring the floor of the official rate finally up to 1 percent. (SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF (DIA), SPDR S&P 500 Index ETF (SPY), Nasdaq 100 Index ETF (QQQ), iShares Russell 2000 Index ETF (IWM))

Trump Rally, Recession

We are not getting the Obamacare repeal, we are not getting the comprehensive tax reform, I mean we are not getting anything and still the stock market has not surrounded any of the gains from the Trump rally that was based on the expectation of a bunch of things that will not happen. What is going to happen is a recession! (SPDR S&P 500 Index ETF (SPY), SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF (DIA), Nasdaq 100 Index ETF (QQQ), iShares Russell 2000 Index ETF (IWM))