Weakness On Housing Stocks

The biggest canary (just another one of those dead canaries that these miners are ignoring) is what's going on in the housing stocks. We got more bad news on housing this week you got no warning going forward from DR Horton I think the stock was down 10 percent.

Stock Market: The Gains From The Midterms Rally Will Be Surrendered

I thought that relief rally was just another dead cat bounce that the fundamentals and the technicals still looked horrible for the US stock market I expected that rally to reverse and of course that process has already begun Thursday and Friday I think it will continue next week and I think the rest of those gains will be surrendered.

Real Estate: The Entire Market Is Going To Blow Up

I think that mortgage applications are going to go a lot lower. I think the entire market is pretty much gonna blow up and a good example of what's coming was the earnings that came out today from Zillow.

Zillow stock was down almost 27% on the day it actually closed just below $30 a share. The high this year was $65.70 so obviously the price of Zillow has been more than cut in half since this summer and I remember specifically on this podcast criticizing a move that Zillow made that is partially responsible for the plunging stock price.

What Zillow decided to do was actually go into the business of flipping real estate. They were not just gonna provide a platform for people to list their homes and for realtors to prospect for clients and all that, they actually were gonna get into the housing market by buying houses themselves and then listing them for sale. So, basically kind of like market making in homes, trying to pick up bargains and then sell their own houses on Zillow rather than simply act as a middleman. And I said this was a very risky move for Zillow to be making at a very bad time when you had the housing market topping, when you had mortgage rates rising.

I said this was a huge mistake, an indicative of a top and that is exactly what's happening. In fact if you look at their earnings, Zillow has bought a lot more houses than they've been able to sell so they now have a huge inventory of houses that they own, that they're trying to unload and of course they're not going to be able to do it because the buyers are just not there.

This Is Going To Be A Protracted Bear Market

This is going to be a protracted bear market like the one we had from 1966 to 1982 with 16 years without a new stock market high.The cost of living back then went up dramatically, and it’s going to rise even more dramatically during this secular bear market.

A Bubble Economy, A Brutal Recession & Interest Rates

Peter Schiff was active this week commenting the recent action in the markets. Here's a snapshot of the most interesting articles:

Peter Schiff: The Truth Is We Don't Have A Booming Economy; We Have A Bubble

Peter Schiff: The Recession That's Coming Is Going To Be Brutal (Video) 

Stock market will collapse with Fed raising interest rates: Peter Schiff (in Fox Business)

$5000 Gold Prices Could Be In Our Very Near Future

General Electric (GE) Is Less Valuable When It Can't Pay A Dividend

General Electric (GE) closed at $10.10 down 8 cents and it made a new multi-year low. It's the first time it's been below ten dollars in 8 or 9 years. The reason that GE got clobbered by 9 percent yesterday was because they had announced the evening before that they were eliminating their dividend and so obviously GE is a lot less valuable when it can't pay a dividend.

This Rally Is A Correction In A Bear Market

The fact that there is no fear to me shows that it's more likely that this is not the end of the correction but the beginning of the bear market and that this rally is the correction. In bull markets, the market going down is a correction because the trend is still positive, still up - well, in a bear market it's the opposite the rallies are the corrections.

The Biggest Decline In A Month For The Nasdaq Since 2008

The US stock markets closed higher today for the second consecutive day for the first time in the month of October and a lot of traders are probably happy that the month of October is over. Despite the back-to-back rally this is still the biggest decline in a month for the Nasdaq since 2008!

The Next Time The Fed Lowers Rates To Zero, The Dollar Will Collapse

President Trump claims that if he had zero percent interest rates the "strong" U.S. economy would be even stronger. He should be careful what he wishes for, as the next time the Fed lowers rates to zero, the dollar will collapse, taking the bond market and the economy down with it!

This Bear Market Is Not Going To End Quickly

Peter Schiff on Fox Business (Oct 29, 2018)

"The Federal Reserve should raise interest rates but the markets will collapse as a result. This bear market is not going to end quickly like the one in 1987. This will be a protracted bear market like the one we had from 1966 to 1982."

Nasdaq: Worst Monthly Decline Since The Financial Crisis

We still have three trading days left in the month of October and the Nasdaq is on pace to its worst monthly decline since the 2008 financial crisis and yet everybody thinks there's no problem!

Stock Market: The Downtrend Is Intact

Some of the highlights from the Peter Schiff Podcast, ep. 402.

Peter mentioned that the Russell 2000 Index is already in correction territory,

"The Russell 2000 is actually down about 14 percent from its highs so it's now officially in a correction."

Peter also mentioned that yesterday's rally had all the characteristics of a short covering rally and that the down trend in stocks in very likely still intact,

"To me this looked like a classic reversal Tuesday type of rally, one of the reversal Tuesday's where you gap way down and then just rally throughout the day The rally did not produce a positive close so it was not a technically significant rally. In fact, I think the downtrend is intact. To me, it looked like a lot of short-covering was going."

Financials are an example of weakness in the U.S. stock market,

"If you look at the financials for example all those stocks continued to go down closing in the red rallied off the lows but no substantial rallies."

The Box That The Federal Reserve Has Placed Itself In

That's exactly the choice that the Federal Reserve is going to have to make. Next time they're going to have to raise interest rates into a weak economy. 

In fact, they're gonna have to raise interest rates into a financial crisis, into a depression and if they don't do it we're gonna have something even worse, we're going to have hyperinflation. 

That is the box that unfortunately the Federal Reserve has placed itself in based on years and years of this monetary policy.

Stock Market: What's Happened Thus Far During The Month

Look at what's happened thus far during the month of October, which I had been warning on my podcast, looked like there could be a weak October given where we were in the market, given how ridiculous the sentiment was in the face of overwhelming evidence that the economy was in fact weakening.

If you look at the numbers the Dow Jones Industrials Average (DJIA) is down 3.8 percent so far on the month. That's the best performing of the averages. The S&P 500 Index is down about 4.7 percent on the month, the Nasdaq Composite is down 7.4 percent, the DJ Transports down 8.3 percent and the Russell 2000 shows a 9.2 percent decline.

September Existing Home Sales Plunged The Most In 2 Years

September existing home sales plunged the most in 2 years, extending the streak of consecutive monthly declines to six. Homebuilding stocks are hitting 52-week lows, registering their worst year since 2008. If housing is this bad during the boom, imagine what happens after the bust!

Bear Market Rallies Try To Create A False Sense Of Confidence

Corrections or bear markets have rallies. So, maybe this 500-point move up in the Dow Jones Industrials Average (DJIA) is the first upward correction in the new bear market. 

There's no way to say that we have not entered a bear market. It's possible that it will be a bear market, you can't call it a bear market now even though maybe 25% of the stocks are in bear market territory. The majority are not but it's only a question of time. There are a lot of stocks that are down quite a bit but just not enough to be a bear market. 

But remember some of the most spectacular moves that you're gonna see to the upside in a market happen in bear markets. Historically the biggest up days have been in bear markets and that is to try to create a false sense of confidence a false sense of hope.

A Bear Market And A Recession

More important that a bear market it's a recession. I mean this is a bubble not just in the stock market but in the entire economy! So, the Federal Reserve has distorted more than just markets and the problem is this recession is going to be far more painful and far deeper than the one that we had  in 2008/09 because it's also going to be accompanied by rising consumer prices. I think as Americans lose their jobs they're gonna see the cost of living going up rather dramatically and so this is going to make it particularly painful.

What Happens Next In 47 Words

1. Bear market;

2. Recession;

3. Deficits explode;

4. Return of ZIRP and QE;

5. Dollar tanks;

6. Gold soars;

7. CPI spikes;

8. Long-term rates rise;

9. Federal Reserve is forced to hike rates during recession

10. A financial crisis without stimulus or bailouts!

The Recession Is Obviously Coming

Recent article on Seeking Alpha.com: "Peter Schiff: The Recession Is Obviously Coming"

All Bear Markets Start Off As Corrections

“All bear markets start off as corrections. I think this one is probably a bear market. It’s long overdue. This is a bigger bubble than the one that blew up in 2008, and the crisis that is going to ensue is going to be far larger.” - in RT.com

It's Not Trump's Trade Policies That Are Going To Cause The Crash

It's not Trump's trade policies that are going to cause the crash, the crash was happening anyway. In fact Donald Trump gave a speech today and he said that when he was elected President or before he was elected the economy was on a verge of a collapse and he was right. But now it's on the verge of an even bigger collapse because all Donald Trump did was blow more air into Obama's bubble or more accurately the Federal Reserve's bubble.

Video: Rising Rates Crash Stocks

Peter Schiff was recently on RT.com to explain the recent turmoil in the U.S. stock market.

Video: Market Selloff (FOX Business)

Peter Schiff’s recent appearance on Fox Business to talk about the recent market turmoil: "Like all sequels, the next financial crisis will be worse." - Peter Schiff

The Price of Gold Finally Woke Up

"The real standout today in the market was gold right the price of gold finally woke up or traders woke up and noticed how cheap gold is and it rose by about $30 today back over 1220."

- Peter Schiff, Ep. 399: "Gold Breaks Out, Bitcoin Breaks Down" of the Peter Schiff Podcast

Stocks: A True Bear Market

"Everything is going down and so now I think the stealth bear market that started earlier in the year is now becoming a true bear market. Of course, nobody thinks so. Everybody that I'm listening to is talking that it's just a correction in a bull market."

- Peter Schiff, Ep. 399: "Gold Breaks Out, Bitcoin Breaks Down" of the Peter Schiff Podcast

Markets: Stocks & Bonds

"If we get stocks going up then interest rates are gonna go back up which is gonna scare the market."

- Peter Schiff, Ep. 399: "Gold Breaks Out, Bitcoin Breaks Down" of the Peter Schiff Podcast

It's Not A Normal Bull Market Correction

Everybody is talking about how this is just a normal correction in a normal bull market. Well, first of all there's nothing normal about this bull market, right? This bull market is already the longest bull market ever. So based on duration it ain't normal. Also based on all the stimulus that was required to create it, all the quantitative easing, the years of 0% interest rates, there is nothing normal about this bull market. If anything it's a bubble, it's not just a bull market and of course if it's not a normal bull market then why would it have a normal correction, right?

My Feeling About The Stock Market Was Confirmed

My feeling about the stock market was confirmed today with a 831 point drop in the Dow Jones Industrial Average down 3.15%. This is the biggest decline that the Dow has had since that 1000-plus point drop that we had in February. I think it's maybe the third biggest down day ever point-wise.