How Much Longer Powell Can Pretend All Is Well?

A soaring budget and trade deficits, rising interest rates, higher inflation, a falling U.S. Dollar, protectionist tariffs, a looming trade war, and a slowing economy all portend lower corporate earnings and a bear market in stocks. Let's see how much longer Powell can pretend all is well.

Related trading instruments: 

• SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF (DIA)
• Nasdaq 100 Index ETF (QQQ)
• SPDR S&P 500 Index ETF (SPY)
• United States Steel Corporation (X)

The Dow's Record Breaking Monthly Winning Streak Has Come To An End

The Dow Jones Industrials Index (DJIA) was down 380 points today. In fact this is the second consecutive 300 point drop we've had in the Dow you know the Dow now is down about 4% for the month of February which just came to an end today and that also means the Dow's record-breaking monthly winning streak has also come to an end remember the Dow has been up every month since Donald Trump was elected president including every single month in calendar year 2017 that is something that has never happened in the history of the stock market.

Related trading instruments: 

• SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF (DIA)
• iShares Russell 2000 Index ETF (IWM)
• SPDR S&P 500 Index ETF (SPY)
• Nasdaq 100 Index ETF (QQQ)

Interest Rates Are Going a Lot Higher

Related trading instruments: 

• iShares Barclays 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT)
• 10- year U.S. Treasuries, SPDR S&P 500 Index ETF (SPY)
• SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF (DIA)
• iShares Russell 2000 Index ETF (IWM)
• Nasdaq 100 Index ETF (QQQ)

Gold Needs To Clear Overhead Resistance

We got above $1350 last week but we couldn't hold it. I think we really need to go above $1400 to really clear away this overhead resistance the only trend that really continued was the bond market continuing to go down it's pretty much a daily affair.

Related trading instruments: 

• Market Vectors Gold Miners ETF (GDX)
• Market Vectors Junior Gold Miners ETF (GDXJ)
• iShares Silver ETF (SLV)
• SPDR Gold Trust ETF (GLD)

Stock Market: The Dance That We're Doing

Why didn't the stock market follow the bond market down? Of course it's because the stock market didn't follow the bond market down that the bond market kept falling and if the stock market doesn't fall then the bond market will keep falling and interest rates will keep rising until it does (make the stock market go down), that is the dance that we're doing.

Related trading instruments: 

• SPDR S&P 500 Index ETF (SPY)
• Nasdaq 100 Index ETF (QQQ)
• SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF (DIA)

Inflation Is Good For Gold

A $12 decline (in gold prices) turned into a $25 rally what is that showing that as the idiot morons robotic sellers when they see higher than expected inflation sell the dollar people who use their brains are starting to dip to think and actually come into the market and say wait a minute I don't care what these algorithms or computer programs say inflation is good for gold.

Related trading instruments: 

• SPDR Gold Trust ETF (GLD)
• Market Vectors Gold Miners ETF (GDX)
• Market Vectors Junior Gold Miners ETF (GDXJ)

The Democrats Now Look Like The Fiscally Responsible Party

The Republicans have now succeeded in doing something that you would have thought was impossible. They are making the Democrats look like the fiscally responsible party.

The US Dollar Will Continue To Get Slaughtered

The US Dollar is going to get slaughtered a lot more and the bond market is going to get slaughter a lot more in the days ahead. Maybe not exactly tomorrow but they're going to be days that are going to come that are going to be much worse than today. This is just the beginning this is the tip of a huge iceberg that is going to be developing.

Stock Market: Bear Market or Correction?

Looking at the fundamentals this looks so much more like a bear market. In fact, when you listen to the talking heads on CNBC they keep saying, "relax don't worry you know this is a correction the market is long overdue for correction, we haven't had a correction in a long time and corrections are normal and they're healthy." And all that is true but you know we also haven't had a bear market in a long time and bear markets happen,  bear markets are normal so how do they know that we're having now is not the long overdue bear market?

Massive Volatility Is Indicative Of A Trend Change

We're continuing massive volatility which is I said to me is indicative of a change of trend because we were so long in an uptrend with no volatility now all of a sudden you have this massive volatility.

Related trading instruments: 

• Select Sector Financial Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLF)
• SPDR S&P 500 Index ETF (SPY)
• iShares Russell 2000 Index ETF (IWM)
• Nasdaq 100 Index ETF (QQQ)

Markets: Nothing Is Going To Stop Rates From Rising

Bond yields rose anyway even a 1,000 points down in the Dow Jones Industrials average wasn't even enough to send treasury yields lower with the yield on the 10-year and the 30-year rising to new highs for the move.

We had a horrible 30-year bond auction again. Why anybody showed up is beyond me but obviously not as many people showed up as they thought.  The big drop in the Dow Jones Industrials didn't make interest rates go down it just kept them from going up even more but nothing is going to stop rates from rising.

Stock Market: Volatility Signals a Trend Change

When you have a trend and then all of a sudden you see lots of volatility generally that's a sign that the trend is changing and the trend has been up obviously stocks have been trending up for years and they've been trending up with minimal volatility. When all of a sudden you see massive volatility does that mean the trend is likely to continue? No! It's more likely a sign that the trend has come to an end. (SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF (DIA), iShares Russell 2000 Index ETF (IWM), Nasdaq 100 Index ETF (QQQ), SPDR S&P 500 Index ETF (SPY))

This Just Shows How Quickly The Market Can Go Down

If you look at the five days from the high, in five trading days the Dow Jones futures lost about 13 percent of their value. In five days! Now that just shows you how quickly the market can go down, I mean, the next time it could lose even more even faster. (SPDR S&P 500 Index ETF (SPY), Nasdaq 100 Index ETF (QQQ), iShares Russell 2000 Index ETF (IWM), SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF (DIA))

Markets: The Problem With The Debt

Today if we have trillion dollar deficits not only is the Federal Reserve not monetizing any of it but the Federal Reserve is actually contributing to the problem by not rolling over the bonds that it holds as claiming it's going to shrink its balance sheet. Which means on top of the trillion dollars that the Treasury would need to sell to finance its deficits it's gonna have to sell extra Treasuries to repay the Fed what it's not rolling over. So this is impossible, this is a tidal wave of debt that's coming out of the market.

Related trading instruments: 10-Year U.S. Treasuries, iShares Barclays 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT)

Stock Market: It's a Major Decline

We didn't have a black Monday like 1987 as it wasn't a 20 percent decline but it was the biggest point decline in the history of the stock market by a large magnitude. We were down 1,175 points and we were down 1,600 points at the intraday low. So this is the biggest point decline ever but in percentage terms it is in the top 20 (I think it was like number 14 or something) but it is a major decline and we rarely see declines this big. (SPDR S&P 500 Index ETF (SPY), SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF (DIA), Nasdaq 100 Index ETF (QQQ))

Stock Market: This Brings Back Vivid Memories Of 2008

Listening to all the so-called experts on financial TV reassuring investors that there is nothing to worry about, and that the fundamentals are sound, brings back vivid memories of 2008, as that's exactly what the same experts were saying just before the financial crisis. (SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF (DIA), Nasdaq 100 Index ETF (QQQ), SPDR S&P 500 Index ETF (SPY))

Stock Market: This Year Seems To Have A Lot In Common With 1987

Think about this, 1987 was the year that we had the stock market crash. Well, January was the best month for the US stock market since 1987 and the US Dollar just had its weakest January since 1987. So far this year seems to have a lot in common with 1987.

Stock Market Correction: The Start of Something Much Bigger

A three percent correction is pretty normal except we haven't had one in a long time and the question is is this the start of something more ominous or is this just a small correction and you know what I think there's a lot of evidence that it is the start of something much bigger part of the evidence is that nobody is concerned nobody is worried there's maximum complacency. (SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF (DIA), SPDR S&P 500 Index ETF (SPY), Nasdaq 100 Index ETF (QQQ))

Pronounced Weakness In The US Dollar

January is over this is the worst January for the dollar index since 1987, this is a big move! January was the weakest month for the dollar against the yuan not just the weakest January but the weakest of any month going all the way back to 1994. So we're having some pronounced weakness in the dollar at a time where everybody is optimistic on the US economy.

Greenspan: Bubbles In Stocks & Bonds

Alan Greenspan was on CNBC today talking about the bubble in the bond market the bubble in the stock market how we're coming to stagflation how we don't have any productivity growth I mean I believe that Alan Greenspan knows exactly how bad this is.

US Economy: Closer To A Collapse

We're near the end of the game and unfortunately Trump's gonna be the fall guy. This thing is all gonna collapse while he's President and he owns the stock market bubble and he and the Republicans own the economy now thanks to these tax cuts. They're not gonna make any difference but they are gonna give the Democrats a reason to blame it all on Trump and the Republicans. We are getting closer to this collapse.

The US Economy Is Going To Blow Up

"The economy is gonna blow up but you know, it's gonna blow up like a bomb!" - Peter Schiff, in InfoWars (January 2018)

Why Wall Street Is Wrong About Gold Stocks

Peter Schiff in a recent article explains why Wall Street is wrong about gold stocks:

"When they see the price of gold going up, they’re like, ‘Well, why is the price of gold going up? I mean, what’s the point. The economy is great. There’s no inflation. The Fed is raising rates. Nobody’s buying gold. If it’s going up, it’s just going to go down.’ And so nobody sees the urgency to buy gold stocks the way they see the urgency to maybe buy oil stocks. But this is because they’re wrong. They think there is nothing to worry about. There is everything to worry about. There are so many things – there have probably never been more things to worry about. And the crazy thing is people aren’t worried about any of them. It’s probably because of the mania, because of the bubble. When you get into that mentality, nothing worries you.”

Related stocks: Goldcorp (GG), Newmont Mining (NEM), Barrick Gold (ABX), NovaGold (NG), Market Vectors Gold Miners ETF (GDX)

Stock Market: The Hidden Risks

In a recent article with Seeking Alpha, Peter Schiff highlights the hidden risks that might disrupt the stock market in th near future:

"The stock market is rising despite the fact that there are very, very negative factors that are building, that are hiding in plain sight, that everybody is ignoring.”

"Everybody thinks the economy is in great shape because they think the Fed solved the problem. No, they didn’t. They made the problem much worse! They made the problem that they created worse. But the people who think they solved it are the same people who didn’t understand it before. And they got blindsided in ’08 and they’re going to get blindsided again because they never learned from their mistakes.”

Related trading instruments: SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF (DIA), SPDR S&P 500 Index ETF (SPY), Nasdaq 100 Index ETF (QQQ)

Inflation Is Bullish For Gold

The stock market should be affected by higher interest rates but no, they don't care but they somehow think it's going to be bad for gold. But the reality is higher inflation is great for gold, that's why people buy gold as it's a hedge against inflation. So the more inflation the more demand there is for gold.

Related trading instruments: SPDR S&P 500 Index ETF (SPY), iShares Russell 2000 Index ETF (IWM), SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF (DIA), SPDR Gold Trust ETF (GLD)

Stock Market: Heading For A Crisis

This is the best start since 2006 and of course people who were buying stocks in 2006 had no idea of the magnitude of the financial crisis that would hit the market in 2008 well the same people are even more clueless today because the crisis that we're heading for is going to be much much bigger much worse than the one in 2008. (SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF (DIA), SPDR S&P 500 Index ETF (SPY), Nasdaq 100 Index ETF (QQQ), iShares Russell 2000 Index ETF (IWM))

Crude Oil: We Can See $80-100 This Year

I've been talking about oil prices going up on this podcast. This is the highest oil has closed over two years and if we get above 62.75 which is less than a dollar away that would be the highest closed in oil since December of 2014. But it was all between July of 2014 in December that oil prices collapsed from above $100 a barrel to down below 40 and so I think once we get above 63 for example, I think we got clear sailing up to 80 to $100 oil and I think we can do that this year!

The Implications of the US Dollar Weakness

On a recent tweet, Peter Schiff highlights the recent moves in crude oil and gold and the implications of the US Dollar weakness going forward: 

"Gold closed above $1,300 an ounce for the 1st time in 5 years, oil closed above $60 per barrel for the 1st time in 4 years, and the U.S. dollar fell the most in 14 years. Interesting that no one is worried about what this implies for inflation or interest rates in 2018!"

Related: SPDR Gold Trust ETF (GLD), United States Oil Fund LP ETF (USO), Nymex Crude Oil Futures

US Stock Market: This Never Happened Before In History

I think this is the first year that the Dow Jones Industrials Average (DJIA) has ever gained 5,000 points in a single year. In fact, the Dow Jones was up every month of 2017. That's never happened before in history.

In fact, we've gone 14 consecutive months without a decline and not only were we up every month but 2017 represented the lowest year ever of stock market volatility meaning that even though the market was going up it barely ever went down so it never made anybody nervous.

Related trading instruments: SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF (DIA), iShares Russell 2000 Index ETF (IWM), Nasdaq 100 Index ETF (QQQ), SPDR S&P 500 Index ETF (SPY)