Ray Dalio agrees - the Federal Reserve is going to cut rates and go back to Quantitative Easing (QE) but it's not going to work. We're heading for stagflation.

Read the complete article here:

Ray Dalio Says Get Ready for a Paradigm Shift; Buy Gold!

Manufacturing Index Tumbles To Its Lowest Level in 6 Years

If we really have the strongest economy ever, especially if manufacturing is supposedly the engine leading the train, why did the June Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index not only miss exceptions, but tumble to its lowest level in over six years?

The Democrats Will Win in 2020

Donald Trump won the White House in 2016 by calling out the vast economic problems phony government statists covered up. His solution was less government and tax cuts. The Democrats will win in 2020 with the same message, but a different solution; more government and free stuff!

Bitcoin, Silver and Gold

Ironically those correctly worried about the failure of our fiat monetary system, who make the mistake of buying Bitcoin, will lose more purchasing power by the time the system fails than those not worried at all who do nothing. If only they were buying gold and silver instead!

Signs Of A Weak U.S. Economy

If the U.S. Economy is really the strongest in history, why is the service sector growing at its slowest pace in 2 years, factory orders near a 3-year low, and small business employment collapsing at its fastest pace in over 9 years?

Markets: Gold, U.S. Dollar

Gold and the U.S. Dollar are over-reacting to June's jobs number that can easily be revised lower. 

The economy is slowing and job losses are typically the caboose not the engine of the recession train. The Federal Reserve will cut interest rates, it will not prevent recession, but it will boost inflation!

U.S. Economy Keeps Reflecting Weakness

The so-called strongest economy ever keeps setting records that reflect weakness. In addition to records in government spending and borrowing, the June Empire State Manufacturing Index just dropped by a record 26 points to -8.6, its 1st negative reading since Trump was elected.

The US Dollar Is Going To Go Through The fFoor

The US Dollar is going to go through the floor and that means the world needs an alternative to the US Dollar. The best alternative is gold.

Bitcoin: New Gold or Fool's Gold?

Peter Schiff debates Barry Silbert at 2019 SALT Conference. They discussed Bitcoin and crypto currencies versus gold.

Bitcoin Has No Intrinsic Value

Read Peter's latest commentary on crypto currencies and Bitcoin: Bitcoin [BTC] is a ‘speculative vehicle for gambling’, says broker Peter Schiff

Topics covered in the interview:

• Bitcoin has anything in common with gold
• Bitcoin is a “fool’s gold” 
• Bitcoin has no intrinsic value 
• Bitcoin is a Ponzi scheme

U.S. Economy: Auto Loan Delinquencies Are Nearing Peak Levels

Auto loan delinquencies are nearing peak levels we saw during the great recession.

"Auto loan delinquencies have surged to the highest level since 2011 and are approaching levels seen at their peak during the Great Recession. The percentage of outstanding auto loans in serious delinquency (90 days or more past due) jumped to 4.69% in the first quarter of 2019, according to the latest data from the New York Fed. At their peak during the recession, auto loan delinquencies hit 5.27%. The total amount of delinquent auto loans totals about $60 billion. In dollar terms, the amount of delinquent auto debt is already far above levels seen during the Great Recession." 

- in Schiff Gold

China is Dumping US Treasuries

"China sold off the highest level of US Treasuries in nearly two and a half years in the month of  March. Meanwhile, there are renewed fears the Chinese could implement its “nuclear options” and sell off even more US debt in retaliation for US trade war tariffs."

"China sold $20.45 billion in Treasuries in March. That was the biggest US debt dump by China since October 2016. After a four-month pause, the big March sell-off resumes a trend of Chinese Treasury divestment we saw in 2018. China shed nearly $50 billion in US Treasuries last year (...) The Chinese currently hold $1.121 Trillion in US debt. That’s the lowest level since May 2017."

- in Schiff Gold

Related trading instruments: 10- year U.S. Treasuries, iShares Barclays 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT)

Thoughts On The Trade War

While it is true that the Chinese have illegally appropriated huge quantities of American intellectual property, I believe that we have received greater benefits in return. Without the cheap goods produced in China, prices may very well have been much higher for vast quantities of key products for U.S. consumers. And without Chinese purchases of U.S. debt, interest rates could have been much higher, making borrowing more expensive for both businesses and consumers. It’s hard to quantify just how important these benefits have been for an economy such as ours, which has been driven for decades by borrowing and spending.

Trade War: "You don't win a war by shooting your own troops!"

The idea that we have more weapons in the trade war because we can tariff more products is wrongheaded. Tariffs hurt the country that imposes them the most, not the other way around. You don't win a war by shooting your own troops!

Trump Realizes The Current American Economy Is Weak

Trump's longing for the good old days when America actually made things and ran trade surplus proves that Trump realizes the current American economy is weak. He just pretends that it's strong so he can take credit for it as he campaigns to win a second term.

Bitcoin Is A Ponzi Scheme

Read Peter's latest commentary on crypto currencies and Bitcoin: Bitcoin [BTC] is a ‘speculative vehicle for gambling’, says broker Peter Schiff

Topics covered in the interview:

• Bitcoin has anything in common with gold
• Bitcoin is a “fool’s gold” 
• Bitcoin has no intrinsic value 
• Bitcoin is a Ponzi scheme

Thoughts On The Trade War

I’ve been saying for a long time that even if we got a deal, it was going to be a ‘buy the rumor sell the fact.’ But I also said it was becoming obvious that Trump had so overpromised about a great deal that it was almost impossible to have a deal without disappointing the markets. So, I think Trump made a calculated decision that no deal is better than a deal that disappoints, especially since he had already goosed the market up to new highs so even if we sold off, Trump could say, ‘Well, this is some short-term pain. It’s necessary for the long-term gain.’ And it may be the catalyst that causes the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates and launch QE, which is what Trump wants.

- in Schiff Gold

"Long live the bear market. This bear market rally is dead. We are going a lot lower.” 
- in Schiff’s podcast

Uber's IPO

Normally, in a real environment where we had normal interest rates, where the Federal Reserve wasn't artificially suppressing them, I don't think money-losing companies like Uber (UBER) would be able to come public.

Gold Standard & NYC Subway Fares

Look how stable prices were before Nixon took us off the gold standard. Are NYC subway riders really better off with central bankers calling the shots instead?

The Only Chance Of Postponing A Recession

I think Trump knows the only chance he has of postponing the onset of this recession until beyond the 2020 election is to get the Federal Reserve to preemptively cut interest rates and launch QE4.

What set the low, what was the catalyst for this rally, was the Fed getting more dovish. It went from ‘we’re going to keep hiking rates’ to ‘we’re finished hiking rates.’ It went from ‘quantitative tightening is on autopilot’ to ‘quantitative tightening is going to end over the summer.’ And so that shift – where the Fed went from being hawkish to dovish – that started the rally. Well, this more recent shift, where the Fed changed expectations again and disappointed the markets by saying, ‘Hey, we’re not as dovish as you think. We’re not going to cut rates,’ that, I think, capped the market. And now, Trump coming in and taking away the prospects of this great trade deal, well, that’s like a one-two punch, and I think this bear market rally, like I said, is over and we’re going lower.”

Episode 464: Job Headlines Still Mask the Real Story

Latest investment commentary from Peter Schiff.

Episode 464: Job Headlines Still Mask the Real Story

Is Deflation Good Or Bad?

Between 1800 and 1900 the U.S Consumer Prices Index (CPI) fell by 50 percent. So we had 100 years of "deflation." This includes the gilded age, the strongest period of economic growth in U.S. history. If falling consumer prices were good then, why does the Federal Reserve think they would be such a problem now?

Tesla (TSLA): Things Have Been Going Wrong For A Long Time

Peter Schiff was recently on RT.com discussing Tesla (TSLA) stock:

"Things have been going a lot wrong for a long time at Tesla when it comes to profitability. So, it's really not about one quarter it's about whether or not you're gonna make the leap of faith that Tesla is actually going to make a profitable company out of its business. Right now it's losing a lot of money and what has to happen to justify the current share price is that they have to make a profit but they have to do it at a large enough scale to justify this valuation and I think that's going to be a very difficult thing for Tesla."

GDP Data: Don't Rule Out A 2019 Recession

Inflation Numbers: Something Does Not Add Up!

The government wants us to believe that the annualized increase in the cost of living in Q1 2019 was just 0.9%. Yet the price of oil rose by an annualized rate of over 130% during that quarter! Either the price of everything else plunged, or something doesn't add up!

Bond Market, Gold & The Federal Reserve

The bond market and gold are rising, as the US Dollar falls, because the supposed collapse in the inflation rate in Q1 despite a 130% annualized rise in the price of oil, gives the Federal Reserve yet another excuse to remain patient on future interest rate hikes.

Interest Rate Cuts, Return to QE

If oil prices keep rising, maybe inflation will fall so much that the dreaded deflation risk will rear its ugly head. Then Trump may get his wish, as the Federal Reserve will have an excuse to cut interest rates and return to QE!

Don't Rule Out A 2019 Recession  

The near 17% drop in Q1 energy prices, despite a 33% surge in oil prices, resulted from the sharp fall in oil prices the previous quarter. This, plus one-off positive contributions from inventories and trade, will likely be reversed in Q2. Don't rule out a 2019 recession.

India Is Buying Gold

India has joined countries like Russia and China buying gold in an attempt to diversify reserves away from the US Dollar:

"The Reserve Bank of India has jumped on the gold bandwagon. Since December 2017, the Indian central bank has added 50.4 tons of gold to its reserves. India bought 8.2 tons of gold in January and February of this year and analysts project that pace to pick up. India’s gold reserves currently stand at a record high of almost 609 tons, according to data from the IMF."

Related trading tickers: SPDR Gold Trust ETF (GLD), Market Vectors Gold Miners ETF (GDX), Market Vectors Junior Gold Miners ETF (GDXJ)

Russia Continues Buying Gold

The Russians bought more gold last month as they continue to try to minimize exposure to the US Dollar.

"The Central Bank of Russia added another 18.7 tons of gold to its stash in March according to a press release last week. This boosts the country’s gold reserves to 2, 167.9 tons or 69,700,000 ounces. Gold now makes up about 18% of the Russian central bank’s reserves."
- in Schiff Gold

“Vladimir Putin’s quest to break Russia’s reliance on the US dollar has set off a literal gold rush.” 
- in Bloomberg

Related trading instruments: SPDR Gold Trust ETF (GLD), Market Vectors Gold Miners ETF (GDX), Market Vectors Junior Gold Miners ETF (GDXJ)

Crude Oil Will Put Pressure On The U.S. Economy

This is going to add additional downward pressure to the US Economy while putting upward pressure on the measured rates of inflation and maybe putting more pressure on the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates which is the last thing Donald Trump wants the Federal Reserve to do.

Gasoline Prices Are Going To Keep Rising

Look at the retail sales numbers we just got. The strongest part of it was gasoline because consumers are paying higher prices for gas. Gas prices are gonna continue to rise. 

Crude Oil Is Heading Higher

Crude Oil prices are heading higher says Peter Schiff.

Topics: Crude Oil market, Iran sanctions
Related trading tickers: Energy Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLE), United States Oil Fund LP ETF (USO)

The Banks Do Not Want The Return Of The Gold Standard

All the CEOs of the bailed out banks testifying before Congress don't want to end the Federal Reserve or return to a gold standard. Under a gold standard no future bank bailouts are possible. The Federal Reserve protects bankers from suffering the market consequences of their mistakes.

Printing Money Is Taxation In Another Form

“Printing money is merely taxation in another form. Rather than robbing citizens of their money, governments robs their money of its purchasing power.”

- Peter Schiff

Stock Market: The Trump Put

It's not just the Powell Put. The stock market also benefits from the Trump Put. Anytime the market falls Trump simply tweets something positive about a pending trade deal with China. Since Trump can't play this card if an actual deal is made, his incentive is not to make one!

Related trading tickers: SPDR S&P 500 Index ETF (SPY), Nasdaq 100 Index ETF (QQQ), SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF (DIA)

The Real Reason Why The Fed Cannot Raise Rates

The truth is they can't raise interest rates because we have too much debt we can't afford right a normal rate of interest. Because we have an abnormal amount of debt they can't shrink the balance sheet, the deficits are too high and if they did shrink the balance sheet it would put too much upward pressure on long-term interest and it would collapse the bubble.

The Coming Recession Will Be Bearish For Bonds

Wait until investors figure out that the coming recession will be bearish for bonds. This time soaring budget deficits and a return to QE and ZIRP will result in a sharp fall in the dollar and rise in consumer prices. With stagflation real demand for bonds falls as supply rises!

Related trading instruments: 10- year U.S. Treasuries, iShares Barclays 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT), ProShares UltraShort Lehman 20+ Year ETF (TBT)

Investors Are Fearless!

On CNBC this morning a prominent asset manager boasted he is buying U.S. stocks because investors are so fearful of an inverting yield curve and that the 2nd longest economic expansion is nearing its end. While investors should fear that and more, they don't. Investors are fearless!

Federal Reserve, Crude Oil Prices & Credit Card Debt

Fed's Dovish Posture: A Big Mistake

Every clueless commentator on CNBC is applauding the Fed's dovish posture. They don't understand that this shift was the inevitable result of prior monetary policy mistakes. Rather than acknowledging and leaning from those mistakes, the Federal Reserve is just making even larger ones now! 

FOMC Meeting: Gold and U.S. Dollar Reaction

The fact that the U.S. dollar is not already tanking and gold soaring underscores just how clueless investors remain as to the future trajectory of the U.S. economy and past efficacy of #Fed monetary policy. They are in for a rude awakening. 

Government Bonds: Few Real Buyers For Longer-Dated Maturities

The real reason the Federal Reserve is lengthening its balance sheet is that it knows there are few real buyers for longer-dated maturities. This will only worsen the Federal Reserve losses when it eventually sells those securities to fight inflation, or the public's losses if it choses not to!

Inflation & Crude Oil Prices

The decline in oil prices is the main reason Powell claims he is not worried about rising inflation. Yet oil prices are already up by 33% this year, rising above $60 per barrel today. Oil prices may actually double in 2019. As the U.S. economy slows, the CPI will rise faster.

Americans Owe Over  $1 Trillion In Credit Card Debt

Americans owe over $1 trillion in credit card debt and recent polling data indicates they aren’t paying off those balances anytime soon. (related stocks: Visa (V), Mastercard (MA), American Express (AXP))

A Bear Market Rally

I actually think the US stock market entered a stealth bear market at the beginning of 2018. But we didn't officially enter a bear market with the major averages dropping 20% or more in the fourth quarter of 2018.

 Then the Federal Reserve did exactly what I said they would do the minute the market either entered a bear territory or got close enough to do it to scare the Federal Reserve. I said from before the Fed even raised interest rates for the first time that if they ever attempted to normalize interest rates their attempt would fail that they could never complete the journey because along the way the market would break and the Federal Reserve would have to cut off the interest rate hikes and that's exactly what they did.

I also said that the initial calling off of future interest rate hikes would only create a relief rally in the market and that's what we've had. This rally is the correction. In bear markets the rises are the corrections, the opposite of a bull market. So, I think the Federal Reserve by throwing the markets this lifeline has created this bear market correction, this rally.

Trump Will Reach A Trade Deal With China

Trump will read a trade deal with China. In Peter Schiff`s opinion he has to. On a recent interview with RT.com, Peter explained why President Trump cannot afford not to have a deal. Read and watch the complete interview here: ‘Trump will reach trade deal with China, he can’t afford not to,’ Peter Schiff tells RT’s Boom Bust

Global Economic Weakness

Weakness in the global economy is not going to spill over into the U.S. economy. The U.S. economy will weaken on its own due to a host of domestic problems far greater than what overseas economies are dealing with. As the U.S. enters recession, the global economy will improve.

Trade Deal: Will The Markets Sell The News?

Since expectations of a great U.S. - China trade deal are so high, the market is poised to sell the news, particularly if the over-hyped deal does not live up to expectations. The best way for Trump to avoid disappointing markets is to delay an actual deal for as long as possible.

Precious Metals: Silver Will Rise Even More

Look at last time. Silver went up to $50 per ounce from $3 to $4 an ounce in 2000-2001. Gold went to $1,900 per ounce, but silver went to $50 per ounce. It was a much bigger percentage gain. If I am right about gold going to $5,000 to $10,000 (per ounce), I am sure the percentage gain in silver will be even bigger.

Gold Is The Last Thing You Should Be Shorting

I think this is the calm before the storm. People don’t really perceive it. Gold shorts are going to lose an incredible amount of money. That’s probably one of the most foolish things you can do. There are a lot of great things out there to short. Gold is the last thing you should be shorting. 

For central banks, gold is the safest reserve asset. It’s the only asset that is not somebody else’s liability. I think the world is going back to gold.

$5,000, $10,000 (per ounce) who knows how high it’s going to go. There is no real ceiling on the price of gold because there is no floor to the value of the dollar and other fiat currency. Gold is going to skyrocket.

The U.S. Dollar Is Going To Collapse

I think when they start to try to reflate the assets in stocks, real estate and in bonds, they are just going to prick the dollar bubble, and that’s when we have a real crisis. The dollar is going to collapse, and America’s days of living beyond its means is going to come to an end.

Jerome Powell Dismissed Surging Auto Loan Delinquencies

On 60 Minutes Jerome Powell dismissed surging auto loan delinquencies by saying they merely reflect that not everyone is benefitting from the widespread prosperity the U.S. is currently enjoying. But soaring delinquencies are more evidence that the prosperity is not widespread!

The Only Potential Risks Powell Sees Right Now

Jerome Powell told 60 Minutes that the only potential risks he sees facing the U.S. economy are slowing economies in Europe and Asia. Record Federal, state, corporate, and personal debts do not concern him at all. He is also not worried about the housing or auto markets. Crazy!

First Down Week For U.S. Stocks In 2019

In fact, this is the first down week that the U.S. stock market has had in 2019. Something tells me it's certainly not going to be the last.

China - U.S. Trade Deal: "I don't think we're gonna have a substantive deal"

I don't think we're gonna have a substantive deal that gets to the root cause of that I think that there's gonna be a deal I've been saying that since the beginning I think that Trump can't afford not to have a deal so there's gonna be one but it's not going to turn around America's massive trade deficit with China.

Stock Market & U.S. - China Trade Deal

The market already expects a trade deal – a good trade deal. I think that is a dangerous position for the United States because it puts President Trump in a position where he really has to deliver.

More Signs Of Economic Weakness

Look at the data coming out: (we had) the biggest drop in retail sales in one month since 2009 when we were in the Great Recession. 

Look at the numbers we got out on delinquencies in auto loans: they are at an all-time record high, on people who are 90 days or more behind in their car payments.

I just read today that restaurant sales are falling now for four out of the last five months at the fastest pace in more than 25 years. That means that restaurant sales now are weaker than they were in the 2001 recession or in the 2008 recession.