The Correlation Between Stocks & The Dollar

If we look at the correlation right now, the U.S. Dollar is starting to trade with the stock market, meaning that when the stock market is up, the U.S. Dollar is up, and when the stock market is down, the U.S. Dollar is going down.

Worst Time To Buy U.S. Stocks!

This is the worst time to be buying U.S. stocks.

(Select Sector Financial Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLF), SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF (DIA), SPDR S&P 500 Index ETF (SPY), Nasdaq 100 Index ETF (QQQ), iShares Russell 2000 Index ETF (IWM))

Stock Market: The Big, Fat, Ugly Bubble

When Donald Trump run for office he called the stock market a big, fat, ugly bubble. Well, it is certainly bigger, fatter and uglier now. (iShares Russell 2000 Index ETF (IWM), SPDR S&P 500 Index ETF (SPY), SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF (DIA), Nasdaq 100 Index ETF (QQQ), Select Sector Financial Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLF))

Gold Will Likely Take Out Resistance At $1,260

Gold closed above $1250, we have resistance at $1260. I think we will take it out. (Gold Futures, SPDR Gold Trust ETF (GLD), Market Vectors Gold Miners ETF (GDX), Market Vectors Junior Gold Miners ETF (GDXJ))

Obamacare Is Going To End, One Way Or Another

Obamacare is going to end, one way or another. (Health Care SPDR ETF (XLV), UnitedHealth Group (UNH))

Trump Agenda: No Comprehensive Tax Reform

I don't think we are going to have any kind of comprehensive tax reform. I think that it would be very productive but I also think it should happen in a context of major reductions in government spending.

A Bullish Catalyst For The Price Of Gold

What I think it's going to really accelerate the price of gold going up is the fact that interest rates are not going up nearly as much as the market anticipates. (SPDR Gold Trust ETF (GLD), Market Vectors Gold Miners ETF (GDX), Market Vectors Junior Gold Miners ETF (GDXJ))

The US Economy Is A Mess!

The economy is a mess! Atlanta Fed is now looking for 1.2 percent first quarter GDP growth. It was looking at 3.4 percent growth on February 1st. We are dangerously close to an economic recession.

U.S. Economy: Department Store Sales Are Collapsing!

Look at what it's happening to Department Stores sales. Department Stores sales are collapsing, this is the worst decline since the 2008 financial crisis. They are falling off the edge of a cliff. (Macy's Inc (NYSE:M), J C Penney Company Inc (NYSE:JCP),  Nordstrom, Inc. (NYSE:JWN), Ross Stores, Inc.(NASDAQ:ROST))

U.S. Economy, Crude Oil Prices and Interest Rates

We are dangerously close to an economic recession in America. Gasoline demand is down and the is why oil prices are going lower. The interest rate hike is going to make the problem worse. (Energy Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLE), Select Sector Financial Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLF), SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF (DIA), SPDR S&P 500 Index ETF (SPY), United States Oil Fund LP ETF (USO), Nymex Crude Oil Futures)

Will This Rate Hike Prick The Stock Market Bubble?

This is a gigantic bubble and it has gotten bigger since we elected Trump. Will this next interest rate hike prick the bubble? There is a chance. Eventually the air is going to come out of this bubble. (Select Sector Financial Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLF), SPDR S&P 500 Index ETF (SPY), SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF (DIA), iShares Russell 2000 Index ETF (IWM), Nasdaq 100 Index ETF (QQQ))

Healthcare Reform Is Going To Be a Disaster

The Republicans on Capitol Hill with the blessing of President Donald Trump are trying to repeal one big healthcare program and replace it with another big government entitlement. It is not going to work, it is going to be another disaster just wrapped up in a different package. (UnitedHealth Group (UNH), iShares NASDAQ Biotechnology Index ETF (IBB), Health Care SPDR ETF (XLV))

The Real Reason Why Yellen Will Raise Interest Rates

I think the reason the Federal Reserve feels confident to raise interest rates is because the Dow Jones Industrials Average (DJIA) is trading at 21,000. That's why. Just like it felt confident to raise interest rates the first time, in December of 2015 because the markets were giving a false signal that the hike was OK but of course after the rates were hiked the market rallied and then it dumped. We had the worst January in the history of the stock market. (SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF (DIA), SPDR S&P 500 Index ETF (SPY))

A Fed Interest Rate Hike Is Coming Up

According to Goldman Sachs (GS), the odds of a Federal Reserve interest rate hike coming up at the March meeting which is less than two weeks away is now 95 percent. (SPDR S&P 500 Index ETF (SPY), SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF (DIA), iShares Russell 2000 Index ETF (IWM), Nasdaq 100 Index ETF (QQQ))

Trump Wants To Make The Government Bigger, Not Smaller!

If we want to strengthen the economy we have to liberate it from the shackles of government. We have to weaken the government  to strenghten the economy. We need a much smaller government. But that is not what Donald Trump wants. Trump spent most of his speech talking about ways to make the government bigger! (SPDR S&P 500 Index ETF (SPY), SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF (DIA), Nasdaq 100 Index ETF (QQQ))

Bitcoin: Too Volatile For Being Considered As Money

The volatility of Bitcoin is too great on a daily basis to price in it. It is a speculative asset, people own  Bitcoins because they think it will be more valuable in the future.

Bitcoin Is Not Money, It's a Speculative Asset!

Bitcoin is not digital gold, it is digital fools gold. Today's Bitcoins can be tomorrow's Bitty babies. The whole principal behind Bitcoin was to replicate the properties that made gold uniquely suited to be money, act as an alternative to fiat currencies but it is not really viable as money, it is a potential medium of exchange but it is not a store of value. Meanwhile nobody really uses it as a medium of exchange, it is a speculative asset, people own it because they think it will be more valuable in the future but it has no intrinsic value of itself.

A Gold Correction Will Be A Great Buying Opportunity

An interesting observation, gold stocks were down on Friday, they were also down on Thursday, in fact they had a sell-off at the very end of the day. I think the last 2 percent rise in the price of gold we had about a 4 percent drop in gold prices. Now, gold stocks rose early on and they did a very good job of forecasting this gold rally. So, the question is, are gold stocks now actively forecasting a sell-off, a profit taking or a correction in the gold rally? That is possible and if that is the case that is going to be a great buying opportunity because I do not think the correction will be very long lived or that deep and I do expect much higher prices later in the year. (SPDR Gold Trust ETF (GLD), Market Vectors Gold Miners ETF (GDX), Market Vectors Junior Gold Miners ETF (GDXJ))

Gold Is Still Trending Up

The price of gold was up again last week, got as high as 1,260 dollars an ounce. On my last podcast I said gold was building a lot of resistance at 1,240 and that when we took it out we would see a bit of a jump and that is exactly what happened.

Greenspan Expects Stagflation, Bullish On Gold Prices

Alan Greenspan is very bullish on the price of gold. He talked favorably about the price of gold. Yet the one thing that Greenspan still does not want to do is to accept any responsibilities. He does not want to accept the blame for all the bad things that he now thinks are coming. (SPDR Gold Trust ETF (GLD), Market Vectors Gold Miners ETF (GDX), Market Vectors Junior Gold Miners ETF (GDXJ))

The Stock Market Is Going Way Down In Gold Terms

A good way to measure the stock market is in terms of gold. Let's say right now the Dow jones Industrials Average (DJIA) is worth about sixteen ounces of gold. Let's say the stock market gets cut in half, them it is worth eight ounces of gold or the stock market stays the same and gold prices double from here, it's worth eight ounces of gold too. The stock market in terms of gold is going way down! I think it's going a lot lower than eight. (SPDR Gold Trust ETF (GLD), SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF (DIA))

U.S. Economy: We Have To Allow This Economy To Restructure

We need to let interest rates go up, we need to let the chips fall where they may. If we do that now after interest ratings having been so low for so long we are going t have a financial crisis worse than 2008. But at this point we all just have to suck it up and bear it. And if that means a lot of people losing money, banks failing, and a lot of people lose their jobs, that is what is has to happen! 

We have to clean the house. We have to allow this economy to restructure so that we can rebuild it the right way and not rebuild it based on government central planning but let the free markets rebuild it. This was what made America great in the first place.

Inflation Has Already Surpassed Yellen's Target

Year over year CPI (consumer Price Index) is now up 2.50%. That is the official number, obviously prices are going up a lot faster than that. But according to the government they are going up at 2.50%. If you take out food and energy and just look at the core, year over year changes 2.30%. 

Remember the Federal Reserve says their target is 2%. And when Yellen testified this week she said she was confident that we are going to hit it. Well, we are already surpassing it! (SPDR Gold Trust ETF (GLD), iShares Silver ETF (SLV), Market Vectors Gold Miners ETF (GDX), Market Vectors Junior Gold Miners ETF (GDXJ))

The Federal Reserve Knows Another Crisis Is Coming

The reason the Federal Reserve has acted so slowly in increasing interest rates is because they know another crisis is coming and they just hope they do not get blamed for it. (SPDR S&P 500 Index ETF (SPY), SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF (DIA), iShares Russell 2000 Index ETF (IWM))

The Largest Debtor Nation in the History of the World!

The accumulating effects of the annual current account deficits is that we are the largest debtor nation in the history of the world. We owe more money to other countries than all other debtor nations combined.

Markets: Gold Miners, Australian Dollar

The Market Vectors Junior Gold Miners ETF (GDXJ), an index of junior gold miners it is up 33 percent this year! And meanwhile the U.S. Dollar is starting to go down, it`s not down that much against the Euro but look at the Australian Dollar for example, it is up 6 percent so far this year against the U.S. Dollar. 

Traders Are Overlooking The Contractionist Impact Of Rising Rates

I think traders are overlooking the contractionist impact of rising interest rates. Not necessarily just the interest rate increases by the Federal Reserve but look at what is happening to the long end of the bond market since Trump was elected. Even though there was a big reaction in the stock market at the end of last year, so far in 2017, the Dow Jones Industrials Average (DJIA) is not making much in the way of gains. (SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF (DIA), SPDR S&P 500 Index ETF (SPY))

U.S. Stock Market or the U.S. Dollar: One Is Going To Crash!

The fact that Donald Trump is the President does not change it from an asset bubble to a bull market! 

It`s still a bubble and the air is going to come out one way or another. Either the U.S. stock market is going to crash or the U.S. Dollar is going to crash. But either way, the real value of stocks is coming way down and people should not own them. 

(SPDR S&P 500 Index ETF (SPY), iShares Russell 2000 Index ETF (IWM), SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF (DIA), Nasdaq 100 Index ETF (QQQ), Apple (AAPL), Facebook (FB), Tesla Motors (TSLA), Netflix (NFLX))

U.S. Stocks Are Very Expensive

The fact that the Dow Jones Industrials Average is at 20,000, that does not reflect a healthy economy, it reflects a bubble! U.S. stocks are very expensive. Candidate Trump has it right when he called it a big, fat, ugly bubble an it is bigger, fatter and uglier now! (SPDR S&P 500 Index ETF (SPY), SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF (DIA), iShares Russell 2000 Index ETF (IWM), Nasdaq 100 Index ETF (QQQ))

Markets: U.S. Dollar, Gold and the U.S. Stock Market

It was the weakest January for the U.S. Dollar in 30 years! Gold prices are rising, commodity prices are rising and for all the hype about Dow 20,000, the U.S. stock market is pretty much the worst performing stock market in the world so far in 2017. if you adjust for currencies. (SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF (DIA), Nasdaq 100 Index ETF (QQQ), SPDR S&P 500 Index ETF (SPY), iShares Russell 2000 Index ETF (IWM), SPDR Gold Trust ETF (GLD))

The Bullish Case For The Euro Currency

We know that the Bundesbank does not approve the easy money policies, the QE, the negative interest rates that Draghi and the ECB have forced upon them and I believe that rising German opposition as well as rising inflation both in Germany and throughout the European Union will ultimately force the ECB to abandon this monetary policy maybe even at the same time that the Federal Reserve is finally coming to terms or admitting that they are about to ease monetary policy again, they will be cutting interest rates and doing QE4.

Federal Reserve: Will They Raise in March? Probably Not!

The Federal Reserve has been saying that we will have three interest rate hikes in 2017. They have to get started if we are going to have three. People thought the Federal Reserve was going to say something to indicate that maybe it would be in March. They made no such comment. (SPDR Gold Trust ETF (GLD), SPDR S&P 500 Index ETF (SPY))

The U.S. Debt Bomb Is About To Explode

The U.S. debt bomb is going to explode. What the Federal Reserve has been doing, by keeping interest rates practically at zero has prevent the bomb from exploding. With interest rates at practically at zero we could afford to service the debt, repaying it is impossible! But at least we could service it when interest rates were at rock bottom. But that is already changing. Interest rates are going up, inflation is going up and creditors are going to demand a higher premium to hold our bonds. We are headed off the edge of a cliff! (iShares Barclays 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT), 10- year U.S. Treasuries)

Trump Desires a Weaker U.S. Dollar

It is almost like Trump is already adopting a weak U.S. Dollar policy because saying that the Euro currency is too weak is saying that the U.S. Dollar is too strong. If you want the Euro currency to go up then you want the U.S. Dollar to go down. If you wan the Japanese Yen to go up, you want the U.S. Dollar to go down. So, the President wants a weaker U.S. Dollar.

U.S. Dollar: The Worst January in 20 Years!

Everybody on Wall Street started the year long the U.S. Dollar. Well, I just read that this was the worst January for the U.S. Dollar in almost 20 years! And for all the fanfare and hype about Dow 20,000 - I think the Dow Jones Industrials Index (DJIA) was up just half of a percent in the month of January. (SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF (DIA), SPDR S&P 500 Index ETF (SPY), Nasdaq 100 Index ETF (QQQ), iShares Russell 2000 Index ETF (IWM))

The Debt Bomb is About to Explode in the U.S.

The debt bomb is going to explode in the United States. Artificially low interest rates helped keeping U.S. debt and interest payments contained but it cannot be contained for much longer because long term interest rates and inflation are rising and on such a scenario creditors will keep demanding higher premiums. (iShares Barclays 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT), ProShares UltraShort Lehman 20+ Year ETF (TBT), 10- year U.S. Treasuries, 30-year U.S. Government Bonds)

Forex: Commodity Currencies (AUD, CAD)

The Australian Dollar (AUD) has been trading even firmer than the Canadian Dollar (CAD). The Australian Dollar (AUD) bottomed out in January 2016, so commodities (Gold, Crude Oil) bottomed and commodity currencies also bottomed.

Trump: Short Term Fix Will Not Result

If we are really going to make America great again, if we really are going to fix what is broken, we have to go through a restructuring of the economy. That in the short term is going to be painful. On the long run it will produce good results. Trump is promising a quick fix, that things are going to get better just because we have elected him. Unfortunately that cannot happen. (SPDR S&P 500 Index ETF (SPY), iShares FTSE/Xinhua China 25 Index (ETF)(NYSEARCA:FXI))

The Stock Market is Very Vulnerable Here

I think to the extent that we get some of these protectionist type measure it is negative for the U.S. Dollar. It is not going to be a positive like some people think and the stock market and the bond market are very, very vulnerable here. (SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF (DIA), SPDR S&P 500 Index ETF (SPY), Nasdaq 100 Index ETF (QQQ), iShares Russell 2000 Index ETF (IWM))

A Bull Run For Gold

Both the Federal Reserve and President Donald Trump want a weak currency, a weak U.S. Dollar. That almost always means a bull run for gold (SPDR Gold Trust ETF (GLD)).

Markets: Gold, Silver and Gold Stocks

Gold is up 6 percent so far year-to-date, Silver is up better than 7 percent. Gold stocks (Market Vectors Gold Miners ETF (GDX)) are up 12 percent so far this year. That means that gold stocks are by far the top performing sector in sector. They were also the best performing sector in 2016. (SPDR Gold Trust ETF (GLD), iShares Silver ETF (SLV))

Currencies Outlook: U.S. Dollar (USD), Australian Dollar (AUD), Canadian Dollar (CAD)

If you take a look at some of the other currencies, the Canadian Dollar (CAD) is up 2.50 percent so far in 2017. The Australian Dollar (AUD) is up 4 percent so far in 2017. These are some pretty big moves early in the year.

Remember, everybody was bullish on the U.S. Dollar. That was the trade. It was so crowded, everybody was in it. Every strategist that I saw on financial news at the end of last year, early this year, said something like, "I am long the Dollar, short Canadian or short the Aussie, or short the Japanese Yen..."

Meanwhile all these currencies are going up and I think they will go a lot higher.

We Need to Get the Government Out of Healthcare

I am very skeptical about the repeal of Obamacare. Potentially they will repeal it in some distant point in the future but it will still be around.

We need to get the government out of healthcare and get the free market in, so that we can have quality care at affordable prices. (UnitedHealth Group Inc(NYSE:UNH), CIGNA Corporation(NYSE:CI), Aetna Inc(NYSE:AET), iShares NASDAQ Biotechnology Index (ETF)(NASDAQ:IBB), Pfizer Inc.(NYSE:PFE))

International Investing: The Countries I Am Most Optimistic About

The countries where I am most optimistic about are Singapore, Hong Knog, New Zealand, Switzerland and Norway. There are a number of countries that I think are in much better shape than the majority of countries out there. There is where we should be investing, as their currencies are going to appreciate, their markets are going to appreciate in real terms. (iShares MSCI Singapore Index Fund ETF (EWS), iShares MSCI Switzerland Index Fund ETF (EWL), iShares MSCI Hong Kong Index Fund ETF (EWH))

Bitcoin is Not Good as Money

Bitcoin prices just collapsed in a very short period of time. This is huge volatility, we are talking about the price of Bitcoin changing by more than 25 percent in less than a 24-hour period. That is a huge drop in price! That is massive volatility, which is the reason why I have been saying that Bitcoin is not good as money because its too volatile!

Stock Market: The More It Rallies, The Harder The Sell-Off Will Be

I think the more the stock market rallies before Trump is inaugurated the more it is going to fall after he is sworn in. (SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF (DIA), SPDR S&P 500 Index ETF (SPY), Nasdaq 100 Index ETF (QQQ), iShares Russell 2000 Index ETF (IWM))

Gold: A Very Strong Start To The Year

Gold up (SPDR Gold Trust ETF (GLD)), U.S. Dollar down, gold mining stocks (Market Vectors Gold Miners ETF (GDX)) up quite a bit, so far the year is not getting off to the type of start that all the experts were predicting. Again, I think that Wall Street experts are in for a big surprise based on how 2017 is going to shape out.

Stock Market: The Energy Rally Still Has Legs

I have a lot of energy related stocks in my portfolio. This energy rally (oil and energy related stocks), I think still has room to continue. On the contrary, the recent rally in financials is probably just a suckers rally. I am sticking stick with the energy related stocks, I am sticking with the miners. (Market Vectors Gold Miners ETF (GDX), Market Vectors Junior Gold Miners ETF (GDXJ), Energy Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLE))

Oil is Building a Lot of Support Above $50

That trend is going to continue. Oil is building a lot of support above 50 dollars a barrel. We are trading between 52 and 54 but I think we are heading higher in 2017. (United States Oil Fund LP ETF (USO), Energy Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLE))

The Dow 20,000 Party Will Have To Wait

The Dow Jones Industrials Average (DJIA) 20,000 party is going to have to wait till 2017, although I would not necessarily buy a ticket for January as he will see if the sell-off that started last week may resume in this first week of the New Year. (SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF (DIA), SPDR S&P 500 Index ETF (SPY), Nasdaq 100 Index ETF (QQQ))