Markets: Gold Miners, Australian Dollar

The Market Vectors Junior Gold Miners ETF (GDXJ), an index of junior gold miners it is up 33 percent this year! And meanwhile the U.S. Dollar is starting to go down, it`s not down that much against the Euro but look at the Australian Dollar for example, it is up 6 percent so far this year against the U.S. Dollar. 

Traders Are Overlooking The Contractionist Impact Of Rising Rates

I think traders are overlooking the contractionist impact of rising interest rates. Not necessarily just the interest rate increases by the Federal Reserve but look at what is happening to the long end of the bond market since Trump was elected. Even though there was a big reaction in the stock market at the end of last year, so far in 2017, the Dow Jones Industrials Average (DJIA) is not making much in the way of gains. (SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF (DIA), SPDR S&P 500 Index ETF (SPY))

U.S. Stock Market or the U.S. Dollar: One Is Going To Crash!

The fact that Donald Trump is the President does not change it from an asset bubble to a bull market! 

It`s still a bubble and the air is going to come out one way or another. Either the U.S. stock market is going to crash or the U.S. Dollar is going to crash. But either way, the real value of stocks is coming way down and people should not own them. 

(SPDR S&P 500 Index ETF (SPY), iShares Russell 2000 Index ETF (IWM), SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF (DIA), Nasdaq 100 Index ETF (QQQ), Apple (AAPL), Facebook (FB), Tesla Motors (TSLA), Netflix (NFLX))

U.S. Stocks Are Very Expensive

The fact that the Dow Jones Industrials Average is at 20,000, that does not reflect a healthy economy, it reflects a bubble! U.S. stocks are very expensive. Candidate Trump has it right when he called it a big, fat, ugly bubble an it is bigger, fatter and uglier now! (SPDR S&P 500 Index ETF (SPY), SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF (DIA), iShares Russell 2000 Index ETF (IWM), Nasdaq 100 Index ETF (QQQ))

Markets: U.S. Dollar, Gold and the U.S. Stock Market

It was the weakest January for the U.S. Dollar in 30 years! Gold prices are rising, commodity prices are rising and for all the hype about Dow 20,000, the U.S. stock market is pretty much the worst performing stock market in the world so far in 2017. if you adjust for currencies. (SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF (DIA), Nasdaq 100 Index ETF (QQQ), SPDR S&P 500 Index ETF (SPY), iShares Russell 2000 Index ETF (IWM), SPDR Gold Trust ETF (GLD))

The Bullish Case For The Euro Currency

We know that the Bundesbank does not approve the easy money policies, the QE, the negative interest rates that Draghi and the ECB have forced upon them and I believe that rising German opposition as well as rising inflation both in Germany and throughout the European Union will ultimately force the ECB to abandon this monetary policy maybe even at the same time that the Federal Reserve is finally coming to terms or admitting that they are about to ease monetary policy again, they will be cutting interest rates and doing QE4.

Federal Reserve: Will They Raise in March? Probably Not!

The Federal Reserve has been saying that we will have three interest rate hikes in 2017. They have to get started if we are going to have three. People thought the Federal Reserve was going to say something to indicate that maybe it would be in March. They made no such comment. (SPDR Gold Trust ETF (GLD), SPDR S&P 500 Index ETF (SPY))

The U.S. Debt Bomb Is About To Explode

The U.S. debt bomb is going to explode. What the Federal Reserve has been doing, by keeping interest rates practically at zero has prevent the bomb from exploding. With interest rates at practically at zero we could afford to service the debt, repaying it is impossible! But at least we could service it when interest rates were at rock bottom. But that is already changing. Interest rates are going up, inflation is going up and creditors are going to demand a higher premium to hold our bonds. We are headed off the edge of a cliff! (iShares Barclays 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT), 10- year U.S. Treasuries)

Trump Desires a Weaker U.S. Dollar

It is almost like Trump is already adopting a weak U.S. Dollar policy because saying that the Euro currency is too weak is saying that the U.S. Dollar is too strong. If you want the Euro currency to go up then you want the U.S. Dollar to go down. If you wan the Japanese Yen to go up, you want the U.S. Dollar to go down. So, the President wants a weaker U.S. Dollar.

U.S. Dollar: The Worst January in 20 Years!

Everybody on Wall Street started the year long the U.S. Dollar. Well, I just read that this was the worst January for the U.S. Dollar in almost 20 years! And for all the fanfare and hype about Dow 20,000 - I think the Dow Jones Industrials Index (DJIA) was up just half of a percent in the month of January. (SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF (DIA), SPDR S&P 500 Index ETF (SPY), Nasdaq 100 Index ETF (QQQ), iShares Russell 2000 Index ETF (IWM))

The Debt Bomb is About to Explode in the U.S.

The debt bomb is going to explode in the United States. Artificially low interest rates helped keeping U.S. debt and interest payments contained but it cannot be contained for much longer because long term interest rates and inflation are rising and on such a scenario creditors will keep demanding higher premiums. (iShares Barclays 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT), ProShares UltraShort Lehman 20+ Year ETF (TBT), 10- year U.S. Treasuries, 30-year U.S. Government Bonds)

Forex: Commodity Currencies (AUD, CAD)

The Australian Dollar (AUD) has been trading even firmer than the Canadian Dollar (CAD). The Australian Dollar (AUD) bottomed out in January 2016, so commodities (Gold, Crude Oil) bottomed and commodity currencies also bottomed.

Trump: Short Term Fix Will Not Result

If we are really going to make America great again, if we really are going to fix what is broken, we have to go through a restructuring of the economy. That in the short term is going to be painful. On the long run it will produce good results. Trump is promising a quick fix, that things are going to get better just because we have elected him. Unfortunately that cannot happen. (SPDR S&P 500 Index ETF (SPY), iShares FTSE/Xinhua China 25 Index (ETF)(NYSEARCA:FXI))

The Stock Market is Very Vulnerable Here

I think to the extent that we get some of these protectionist type measure it is negative for the U.S. Dollar. It is not going to be a positive like some people think and the stock market and the bond market are very, very vulnerable here. (SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF (DIA), SPDR S&P 500 Index ETF (SPY), Nasdaq 100 Index ETF (QQQ), iShares Russell 2000 Index ETF (IWM))

A Bull Run For Gold

Both the Federal Reserve and President Donald Trump want a weak currency, a weak U.S. Dollar. That almost always means a bull run for gold (SPDR Gold Trust ETF (GLD)).

Markets: Gold, Silver and Gold Stocks

Gold is up 6 percent so far year-to-date, Silver is up better than 7 percent. Gold stocks (Market Vectors Gold Miners ETF (GDX)) are up 12 percent so far this year. That means that gold stocks are by far the top performing sector in sector. They were also the best performing sector in 2016. (SPDR Gold Trust ETF (GLD), iShares Silver ETF (SLV))

Currencies Outlook: U.S. Dollar (USD), Australian Dollar (AUD), Canadian Dollar (CAD)

If you take a look at some of the other currencies, the Canadian Dollar (CAD) is up 2.50 percent so far in 2017. The Australian Dollar (AUD) is up 4 percent so far in 2017. These are some pretty big moves early in the year.

Remember, everybody was bullish on the U.S. Dollar. That was the trade. It was so crowded, everybody was in it. Every strategist that I saw on financial news at the end of last year, early this year, said something like, "I am long the Dollar, short Canadian or short the Aussie, or short the Japanese Yen..."

Meanwhile all these currencies are going up and I think they will go a lot higher.

We Need to Get the Government Out of Healthcare

I am very skeptical about the repeal of Obamacare. Potentially they will repeal it in some distant point in the future but it will still be around.

We need to get the government out of healthcare and get the free market in, so that we can have quality care at affordable prices. (UnitedHealth Group Inc(NYSE:UNH), CIGNA Corporation(NYSE:CI), Aetna Inc(NYSE:AET), iShares NASDAQ Biotechnology Index (ETF)(NASDAQ:IBB), Pfizer Inc.(NYSE:PFE))

International Investing: The Countries I Am Most Optimistic About

The countries where I am most optimistic about are Singapore, Hong Knog, New Zealand, Switzerland and Norway. There are a number of countries that I think are in much better shape than the majority of countries out there. There is where we should be investing, as their currencies are going to appreciate, their markets are going to appreciate in real terms. (iShares MSCI Singapore Index Fund ETF (EWS), iShares MSCI Switzerland Index Fund ETF (EWL), iShares MSCI Hong Kong Index Fund ETF (EWH))

Bitcoin is Not Good as Money

Bitcoin prices just collapsed in a very short period of time. This is huge volatility, we are talking about the price of Bitcoin changing by more than 25 percent in less than a 24-hour period. That is a huge drop in price! That is massive volatility, which is the reason why I have been saying that Bitcoin is not good as money because its too volatile!

Stock Market: The More It Rallies, The Harder The Sell-Off Will Be

I think the more the stock market rallies before Trump is inaugurated the more it is going to fall after he is sworn in. (SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF (DIA), SPDR S&P 500 Index ETF (SPY), Nasdaq 100 Index ETF (QQQ), iShares Russell 2000 Index ETF (IWM))

Gold: A Very Strong Start To The Year

Gold up (SPDR Gold Trust ETF (GLD)), U.S. Dollar down, gold mining stocks (Market Vectors Gold Miners ETF (GDX)) up quite a bit, so far the year is not getting off to the type of start that all the experts were predicting. Again, I think that Wall Street experts are in for a big surprise based on how 2017 is going to shape out.

Stock Market: The Energy Rally Still Has Legs

I have a lot of energy related stocks in my portfolio. This energy rally (oil and energy related stocks), I think still has room to continue. On the contrary, the recent rally in financials is probably just a suckers rally. I am sticking stick with the energy related stocks, I am sticking with the miners. (Market Vectors Gold Miners ETF (GDX), Market Vectors Junior Gold Miners ETF (GDXJ), Energy Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLE))

Oil is Building a Lot of Support Above $50

That trend is going to continue. Oil is building a lot of support above 50 dollars a barrel. We are trading between 52 and 54 but I think we are heading higher in 2017. (United States Oil Fund LP ETF (USO), Energy Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLE))

The Dow 20,000 Party Will Have To Wait

The Dow Jones Industrials Average (DJIA) 20,000 party is going to have to wait till 2017, although I would not necessarily buy a ticket for January as he will see if the sell-off that started last week may resume in this first week of the New Year. (SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF (DIA), SPDR S&P 500 Index ETF (SPY), Nasdaq 100 Index ETF (QQQ))

Gold: We Will Have A Bull Run Next Year

I think we will have a big bull run next year. I think next year gold will finish the year strong as opposed to having this Trump related sell-off. (SPDR Gold Trust ETF (GLD), Market Vectors Gold Miners ETF (GDX), Market Vectors Junior Gold Miners ETF (GDXJ), Newmont Mining (NEM), Barrick Gold (ABX), Goldcorp (GG), NovaGold (NG))

We Cannot Stop The Bubble From Popping Nor Should We Try

People are ignoring that the things they think are going to happen are impossible: "Now we are going to get fiscal stimulus, we do not need monetary stimulus." If we get the fiscal stimulus we will need the monetary stimulus more than ever to make it possible. There is no way to finance these deficits unless the Federal Reserve steps up and does it.

Of course, this is a mistake, they should not do it and that is why we are in so much trouble. But I do not think there is any way Trump can fix these problems. They are unfixable! We cannot stop the bubble from popping nor should we try.

The New Year May Start With A Sell-Off

The stock market may start the New Year with a major sell-off, just like this year. What I would do if I was sitting on a bunch of profits , I would maybe sell some S&P futures right now to lock in these prices in case there is a rush to get out in January. (SPDR S&P 500 Index ETF (SPY), Nasdaq 100 Index ETF (QQQ), iShares Russell 2000 Index ETF (IWM), SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF (DIA))

As Interest Rates Go Up, That Automatically Brings Stock Values Down

As interest rates go up, that automatically brings stock values down.

But I think it is also interesting that the same stock traders that were so worried about what would happen to the stock market if Donald Trump won, the minute he won they just started buying. All they wanted to do was to justify a move up.

People are ignoring that the things they think are going to happen are impossible. (Select Sector Financial Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLF), SPDR S&P 500 Index ETF (SPY), SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF (DIA), iShares Russell 2000 Index ETF (IWM), Nasdaq 100 Index ETF (QQQ))

The Bond Market Bubble Has Already Bursted

The bond market bubble has already bursted. Interest rates are rising and that is going to compound the problems for an already weakening economy. (iShares Barclays 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT), SPDR S&P 500 Index ETF (SPY), SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF (DIA), Nasdaq 100 Index ETF (QQQ), iShares Russell 2000 Index ETF (IWM))

The Stock Market is Overvalued

The stock market is already overvalued. Its a bubble! And just because we are going to have some tax cuts and regulatory relief, that does not undo that bubble! (SPDR S&P 500 Index ETF (SPY), SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF (DIA), iShares Russell 2000 Index ETF (IWM), Nasdaq 100 Index ETF (QQQ), Select Sector Financial Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLF))

Gold Will Rally in 2017

We are going to get more inflation but it is not a negative for gold, it is a positive for gold. And the markets were wrong about gold at the end of last year, they sold it off when the Fed raised interest rates,, gold bottomed out in January and then had a huge run. We are going to have another big run next year but next year gold is going to finish the year strong. (SPDR Gold Trust ETF (GLD), Market Vectors Gold Miners ETF (GDX), Market Vectors Junior Gold Miners ETF (GDXJ), Newmont Mining (NEM), Barrick Gold (ABX), Goldcorp (GG), NovaGold (NG))

Gold: Inflation Will Rise Much Faster Than Interest Rates

I like to see that negativity out there. Gold has gone down quite a bit since the election but if you go back over the last 15 years, gold had a pretty good track record.

It is interesting that the reason that so many people have turned bearish on gold is because they believe there will be more inflation under Donald Trump, that we are going to have larger deficits as a result of the tax cuts, increased government spending and because of the higher inflation, the Federal Reserve is going to get more aggressive and raise interest rates and somehow that increase in interest rates is going to be bad for gold. It is ridiculous! Higher inflation is good for gold!

Inflation will rise much faster than interest rates, so real interest rates are going to fall and that is when gold shines brightest. (Newmont Mining (NEM), Eldorado Gold Corp (USA)(NYSE:EGO), Goldcorp (GG), Market Vectors Gold Miners ETF (GDX), Market Vectors Junior Gold Miners ETF (GDXJ), SPDR Gold Trust ETF (GLD), Barrick Gold (ABX)

Will Donald Trump Produce Any Economic Growth?

The Federal Reserve does not seem to believe that Donald Trump is going to do anything to produce economic growth because they were more optimistic last year when they knew that Obama was going to be the President than they are now, knowing that it is going to be Donald Trump.

The Housing Market Has Been Propped Up By The Fed, Not Ready To Stand Alone

Both the housing market and the auto market have been propped up by the Federal Reserve’s cheap money and artificially low interest rates. These markets may not be ready to stand alone. (Ford (F), General Motors (GM), Tesla Motors (TSLA), iShares Dow Jones US Real Estate (ETF) (IYR), Lennar Corporation (LEN), KB Home (KBH))

Markets: If Interest Rates Go Up, The Bubble Pricks

We have a bubble economy. If interest rates go up, the bubble pricks. If you move interest rates higher, by definition, stocks and real estate are less valuable. They are more valuable the lower the rate. If interest rates go up, their values come down, multiples have to go down. (SPDR S&P 500 Index ETF (SPY), SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF (DIA), Nasdaq 100 Index ETF (QQQ), iShares Russell 2000 Index ETF (IWM), iShares Barclays 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT), iShares Dow Jones US Real Estate (ETF) (IYR))

Stock Market: The Trump Rally

This honeymoon is going on, and everybody thinks this is great and the narrative is feeding on itself but people are ignoring the big rise in interest rates and assuming none of it matters. All of a sudden higher rates do not matter because we are going to get all this extra growth from the tax cuts and from the government stimulus. Well, the rarity is if interest rates rise it does not matter about the stimulus, the sedative that will result from higher rates will more than offset it, plus the markets are assuming that higher interest rates will have no effect on U.S. asset prices or the economy. They are wrong on both those counts.

Rising Oil Prices & Interest Rates Will Negatively Impact Stock Prices

Crude oil prices and long term interest rates are continuing to surge, yet stock market traders and investors are completely ignoring what this will mean for corporate earnings and stock valuations. (SPDR S&P 500 Index ETF (SPY), iShares Russell 2000 Index ETF (IWM), SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF (DIA), Nasdaq 100 Index ETF (QQQ))

U.S. Dollar: The Bearish Case

Right now everybody is talking about how the Federal Reserve is going to tighten, how they will be raising interest rates and they have not connected the dots that all of this is impossible with what Donald Trump and the new secretary of the Treasury are proposing to do. None of this can happen against the backdrop of rising interest rates, it is impossible! It can only happen if the Federal Reserve prevents interest rates from rising by stepping into the market with massive rounds of Quantitative Easing (QE). If people understood that, the Dollar would be falling and not rising.

Commodity Prices Are Going To Rise

I think that you are going to see a move up in commodities because of increased inflationary pressures brought by central banks all around the world. There will be a lot more inflation and commodity prices are going to rise substantially as paper currencies lose value. (Nymex Crude Oil Futures, United States Oil Fund LP ETF (USO), SPDR Gold Trust ETF (GLD), Market Vectors Gold Miners ETF (GDX), Market Vectors Junior Gold Miners ETF (GDXJ), Nymex Copper Futures, iShares Silver ETF (SLV))

If Mortgage Rates Keep Rising Real Estate Prices Will Drop 20 to 30%

Mortgage rates can certainly keep rising. I would not be surprised to see the rate north of 5 percent by the time of Trump`s inauguration and maybe we can be at 6 percent or more early next year. I think we will have a 20 to 30 percent decline in real estate prices if mortgage rates are at 6 percent and what is that going to do to the banks? (Bank of America (BAC), Goldman Sachs (GS), J.P. Morgan (JPM), citigroup (C), Wells Fargo (WFC), Deutsche Bank AG (USA)(NYSE:DB))

Bond Market: The Beginning Of A Huge Collapse

Just look at what happened to the long end of the curve after the election. This can be the beginning of a huge collapse in the bond market. (iShares Barclays 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT), U.S. Treasuries, iShares iBoxx $ High Yid Corp Bond ETF (HYG))

Investors Should Be Selling The U.S. Dollar, Not Buying

People who are buying U.S. Dollars are doing the wrong thing, they should be doing the reverse. The U.S. Dollar is making 13 or 14 year highs, it is more than a decade high. I think the U.S. Dollar is in very dangerous territory up here. A lot of speculators maybe are being caught, maybe they are being stopped out of their trades, because again, more inflation is not good for the U.S. Dollar, the dollar will lose purchasing power.

The Bearish Gold Narrative Is False

What people are saying is that because we are going to have a higher inflation, the Federal Reserve is going to have to raise interest rates to fight that higher inflation and those higher interest rates will be bullish for the U.S. Dollar and a strong dollar is going to hurt gold prices. But even if we do get one or two interest rate hikes over the next several years, that will not be sufficient to restrain the inflationary forces that will be building in the economy.

So even if interest rates go up slightly, inflation will go up much more and so real interest rates in an inflationary environment will be falling and not rising and that is very negative for the U.S. Dollar and it is extremely positive for gold. (Barrick Gold (ABX), Market Vectors Gold Miners ETF (GDX), Market Vectors Junior Gold Miners ETF (GDXJ), SPDR Gold Trust ETF (GLD), Newmont Mining (NEM), Goldcorp (GG), NovaGold (NG))

Higher Inflation Is Bullish For Gold

The idea that higher inflation is somehow a negative for gold is completely wrong. I do agree that the markets are correct in that inflation will be increasing, especially given the stimulus that a Republican Congress and President Trump may in fact deliver. But that is a good thing for gold, not a bad thing for gold. (SPDR Gold Trust ETF (GLD), Market Vectors Gold Miners ETF (GDX), Market Vectors Junior Gold Miners ETF (GDXJ), Newmont Mining (NEM), Barrick Gold (ABX), Goldcorp (GG))

For How Long Can The Market Be Oblivious To Higher Rates?

For how long can the stock market be oblivious to higher interest rates? Because not only do higher interest rates dramatically slow the economy, they crush the housing market, but stocks themselves, you value stocks based on interest rates. You discount earnings based on interest rates.

Even if the earnings go up a little bit, you have to discount them by a higher amount and the PEs (price to earnings ratio) are already very high and the justification for the high PEs was not the growth rate, it was the discount rate. (SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF (DIA), SPDR S&P 500 Index ETF (SPY), Nasdaq 100 Index ETF (QQQ))

The Catalyst For The Next Economic Recession

The same people that believed that there was a real economic recovery now believe it is going to get even better. Why? In fact, this so called recovery is so old that we are overdue for a recession and why would not this big increase in interest rates be the catalyst to cause it?

Bond Market: Serious Technical Damage Has Been Done

Everybody is ignoring the monetary drag that is already evident from the bloodbath in the bond market and this is going to continue.

In fact if you look at the trend lines, we have broken some serious trend lines now which were down in yield and up in bond prices that have been in existence since 2007. So we have done some serious technical damage in the bond market. (10- year U.S. Treasuries, 30-year U.S. Government Bonds, iShares Barclays 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT))

The Stock Market Is Getting It Wrong

Regardless of a December interest rate hike, the Federal Reserve is soon going to be reversing course and cutting interest rates and doing another round of quantitative easing (QE). In fact, long term interest rates are already spiking up on the potential that Yellen might raise interest rates and that is going to be enough to really prick the bubble in the housing market.

So far the stock market is remaining oblivious to the spike in bond yields because I think they believe the stimulus that might result from the tax cuts and spending increases will be enough to offset the drag of higher interest rates and I think they are very mistaken. There is no way to counteract the damage to this bubble that will result from a spike in long term interest rates.

This Can Be A Blowoff Top In The U.S. Dollar

This can really be a blowoff top in the Dollar Index, trading now at new 14-year highs. The Dollar Index is now above 100 as everybody is so sure that the Federal Reserve is going to be tightening. (SPDR Gold Trust ETF (GLD), EURUSD forex cross)