The Real National Emergency

Of course the real national emergency is not the lack of a wall, the failure to build a wall but building up the national debt to $22 trillion! We eclipse that dubious milestone earlier in the week and again when you talk about the national debt at $22 trillion we're talking about the tip of a huge iceberg. 

This is just a funded portion of the debt and it doesn't include liabilities like what the government owes for social security, guaranteed bank deposits or student loans. That's not there, those are contingent liabilities and they're just as real but they're not even part of the national debt.

So, when you look at all the liabilities that the US government is on the hook for, you're talking about well over a $100 trillion or $200 trillion. Twenty trillion is maybe five or ten percent of the debt but that debt that is the real national emergency.

Portfolio Allocation: "I Have A Lot Of Money In Gold Stocks"

I have a lot of money in gold stocks, more the senior producers. But I also have a lot of global stocks that pay good dividends. 

I could be 40 percent gold stocks and the rest are non-gold stocks, some of those are energy stocks too. But overall they're just good businesses I like around the world in currencies I like. I get a lot of dividends coming.

US Dollar: The Catalyst For The Big Drop

As the US economy weakens and the Federal Reserve starts monetizing all those debts again, which they will, there's gonna be no demand for dollars and the US Dollar is gonna fall like a stone.

The US Economy Is A Gigantic Credit Bubble

I think the longest bull market in history already ended. We're in a correction right now, the first correction of the new bear market.

This idea that the US is the cleanest dirty shirt in the hamper is a bunch of nonsense. I mean the US economy is a gigantic credit bubble. Debt is at an all-time high on an individual level when you look at credit cards, student loans, auto debt... But more importantly the national debt: we're now running $100 billion per month deficit spending. We are borrowing more money now during this recovery than we did at any point during the Great Recession!

We Are In A Bear Market!

The financial media still doesn't get it. They are referring to the current decline in the stock market as a correction. It is not. We are in a bear market. The rally was the correction!

The Best Way To Use Gold

One of the best ways that man has figured out how to use gold is as money. Gold has been money for thousands of years and the reason it's lasted so long is because it works so well. But governments often try to control our lives and one of the things they try to do is control money, change money and substitute money for what we now use as fiat currencies.

Fiat currencies are just pieces of paper that governments declare as legal tender and which have value purely based on faith and confidence in tradition. But they don't have any value based on the intrinsic properties that they possess because they don't possess any. They are simply pieces of paper, there's no difference between a hundred dollar bill and a one dollar bill other than the number of zeros that's written on the paper.

Federal Reserve: Capitulation is the Beginning of the End

Peter Schiff gives a fantastic explanation of the current state of the stock market and how the Federal Reserve has made an 180 degree on monetary policy when the stock markets crashed in the forth quarter of 2018.

Will Gold Finally Make A Comeback?

Peter Schiff recently participated in the Ultimate Gold Panel (VRIC) moderated by Kitco's Daniela Cambone. 

Panel introduction: I don't have to remind many of you that gold has been in a Dead Money trade for a long time now we were above seventeen hundred and twenty eleven but you know for the next four years we've just gone down down down and now we've been stuck in this range of 1,200 to 1,300 so the question is is 2019 the year for gold can it finally make that comeback?

Inflation Pressures Will Be Bullish For Gold

As inflation pressures start to pick up more investors are going to acknowledge the benefits of owning gold. You can watch the whole video interview with Kitco here: Peter Schiff: "More People Will Wake Up" To Gold’s Benefits

The End Of Quantitative Tightening

As I forecast from the day the Federal Reserve first announced its plan to shrink its balance sheet, it now admits it will abort the process long before it's finished. I also forecast that this policy reversal would be a precursor to a return to quantitative easing (QE). That forecast will soon come true too.

More People Are Going To Wake Up To The Benefits Of Owning Gold

We've entered a bear market and we're now in a correction, we're having a rally in a bear market in the US. But I think this is early in the bear market so as that grinds down, as we make new lows and as inflation really starts to take a toll on the real value of people's savings and their investments (not just their stocks but in particular their bonds, their savings the cash value of their insurance policies) as inflation too starts to erode away their purchasing power, more and more people are gonna wake up to the benefits of owning gold.

The Primary Trend In Stocks Is Down

Because the bubble popped we entered a bear market in the US. Right now we're having our first correction in that bear market where you get a rally.

In a bull market the corrections are down. Well, in a bear market the corrections are when the market moves up and I think we're in one of those right now but I think the primary trend in stocks is down.

2008 Was Just The Warm Up

The 2008 one was just the warm up because the central banks were able to delay the consequences until the next crisis which is the one into which we are now headed. 

I believe this bubble has already popped except the air is only just starting to leak out and I think we're headed for a much worse crisis in the United States in particular that will actually end up being a sovereign debt and currency crisis.

Powell Does Not See Any Risks Of Asset Bubbles

Chairman Jerome Powell says the Federal Reserve does not see any risks of asset bubbles, excessive debt, or inflation. Given that no one at the Federal Reserve saw those risks in 2000 or 2008, nothing has changed. Since the current risks they are blind to are much larger, they will be blindsided by a larger crisis.

A 180 Degree Turn On Monetary Policy

If you look at Fed Chairman Powell's most recent comments he's now backing off of his talk about continuing to shrink the balance sheet and maybe not raise interest rates anymore and so that's kind of reflating the bubble a bit but I don't think that's enough to do it.

I think the air is still going to come out of the bubble. The interest rate hikes that have already taken place are too much for the over-leveraged US economy to bear. so I think the Federal Reserve ultimately is going to go back to zero interest rates. It's not just about to slowing down the shrinking of the balance sheet. 

I think they're gonna blow it back up even bigger with QE4 and of course when the Federal Reserve surprises the markets by doing a complete 180 on monetary policy, I think that you're gonna see the bottom drop out of the dollar and that's when you're really going see a big bid in the gold market.

An Inflationary Recession Is Coming

First of all, they're not going to raise interest rates in 2019, they're talking about doing that but what they're actually going to do is: they're gonna take interest rates back down to zero once it's obvious that the economy is in recession and they're going to launch another round of quantitative easing.

That is going to take a very bad situation and make it much worse because it's not going to work like it did last time in that it blew up a bigger bubble. This is going to blow up in everybody's face. It's not going to cause real estate prices to go up or stock prices to go up. 

It's gonna cause food prices to go up gasoline prices it's the cost of living that's gonna rise not the level of the stock market and so this is going to be an inflationary recession.

We Are On The Precipice Of A Much Worse Crisis

It's not a volatile economy it's a bubble economy thanks to the Federal Reserve they inflated an even bigger bubble on purpose than the one they inflated by accident that popped in 2008.

The economy is in much worse shape structurally today than it was before it fell apart the last time so this is the beginning of a much greater crisis of a much greater recession than the one that we experienced back in 2008.

The Fed Will Do Quantitative Easing All Over Again

I don't think that the President has a lot of fans at the Federal Reserve but I don't know that those guys are smart enough to know how to target him. I actually think that had the Federal Reserve not raised interest rates it would be worse right now because the only reason the US Dollar hasn't imploded is because the Federal Reserve is raising interest rates and because people believe they're gonna continue to raise interest rates.

Now, I don't believe that. Before Trump is finished with this term, interest rates will be back at zero and the Federal Reserve is gonna be doing quantitative easing all over again. Except it's gonna backfire because it's not going to reflate asset bubbles, it's gonna throw gasoline on the inflation fire.

The Economy Was Never Strong

Commentators keep asking why the Federal Reserve can't raise rates if the economy is so strong?

They still don't realize that the economy was never strong. They confuse a bubble for strength. Without zero percent interest rates and QE the bubble can't survive. But a return to those policies kills the US dollar!

So-Called Experts Are Still Optimistic About The US Economy

You have to go back to the summer of 2008 to see so many so-called experts so optimistic about the U.S. economy and so dismissive of overwhelming evidence that their optimism is unwarranted.

Related trading instruments: Sector Financial Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLF), SPDR S&P 500 Index ETF (SPY), Nasdaq 100 Index ETF (QQQ), SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF (DIA)

Stat: National Debt

A cool stat: "Between Christmas 2017 and Christmas 2018, the US government added a staggering $1,370,760,684,441.54 to the national debt."

If The Fed Comes To Rescue, Gold Will Rally

What people don’t understand is how much worse the economy is going to become once the Federal Reserve comes to the rescue. Gold is going to go through the roof.

Related trading instruments: SPDR Gold Trust ETF (GLD), Market Vectors Gold Miners ETF (GDX)

Podcast: The Market Was Expecting More From The Fed

Peter Schiff dissects the latest move from the Federal Reserve and its future implications for the markets.

"The selloff from the high to the low was just under 900 points. Earlier in the day the Dow had rallied up about 300 points because there was a lot of anticipation that even though the Fed was going to hike rates today, that it would indicate it would pause."

Related trading instruments: Select Sector Financial Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLF), SPDR S&P 500 Index ETF (SPY), Nasdaq 100 Index ETF (QQQ);

Markets: Russell 2000 Index Is Leading The Market Lower

Highlights from the most recent podcast (December 14th):

Peter cited the current weakness on the Russell 2000 Index and how it is leading the market lower:

"In fact, the weakest indexes continue to be the Russell 2000 - I've been talking about the weakness in the small caps. That index is now down better than 19% from its peak just about 4 months ago. So we're almost officially in bear market territory. We'll probably be there by Monday, judging by the technicals." 

Peter also mentioned the Dow Jones Transports as another index that is already trading at its lowest levels of the year:

"The other index that is leading the way down is the Dow Jones Transports. This index is now down better than 18% from its peak. Both the Transports and the Russell 2000 are at the lowest levels of the year."

Peter Schiff will be live on Fox Business News on Monday on the show "The Countdown to the Closing Bell" to discuss current market events. 

Federal Reserve: New Rounds Of QE Will Cause Stagflation

If we are going into recession and if the Federal Reserve is going to go back to the Quantitative Easing (QE) well and takes interest rates back to zero, the U.S. dollar is going to tank and the inflation fire is going to heat up and it’s going to be stagflation.

The Most Expensive Christmas Tree In Europe

Munich-based gold dealer Pro Aurum made the Christmas tree out of gold coins. They've dubbed it "the most expensive Christmas tree in Europe. With it being valued at $2.6 million, I don't doubt them.

"The “tree” stands 3 meters tall and weighs in at 63 kilograms of pure gold. That translates to 138.891 pounds – approximately. It features 2,018 solid gold one-ounce Vienna Philharmonic coins, topped by a massive 20-ounce coin, placed into a golden star." - in Schiff Gold

Nouriel Roubini On Crypto and Blockchain

"Expect 1000s of crypto & blockchain ventures to go bankrupt. Almost all were total vaporware: they had no goods, services, products, software, apps. They stole the money & run. Crooks!" 

- Nouriel Roubini, Twitter (December 10th, 2018)

Ethereum Has Lost Better Than 90 Percent Of Its Peak Value

Ethereum, the third largest crypto currency by market cap, just broke below 100 dollars per coin. Having trading near 1400 dollars per coin in January of this year.

Ethereum has lost better than 90 percent of its peak value. But it can easily drop by another 90 percent to return to its January 2017 price!

Real Estate Prices Are About To Drop

Now, I think with the stock market finally starting to go down, real estate prices are about to drop. They haven't fallen yet but if you look at supply, the supply is swelling of unsold homes that nobody is buying and that's exactly what happened in 2006, 2007. Before the prices went down the supply went up because people who have houses on the market they're kind of reluctant to drop their prices. They don't want to recognize where the reality is so the houses just sit on the market unsold. We have the biggest glut of unsold homes, new homes since 2007.

Markets: Gold Is Going Ballistic

A recent article from Mr. Schiff on how gold can go much higher from current levels: Peter Schiff: When Everything Blows, Gold Is Going Ballistic

Federal Reserve: Unwinding The Balance Sheet

The balance sheet is still north of four trillion so they've tapered it a little bit ,I think a couple hundred billion. Interest rates are rising and the Federal Reserve still has an enormous balance sheet and according to what they've been saying they're about to start increasing the monthly draw and and that is gonna put even more pressure on the bond market especially since we are printing record budget deficits.

We're now borrowing over a hundred billion a month and the official numbers don't even capture that because so much of the budget is off budget. But it doesn't matter, they still have to issue the bonds to finance the off budget spending.

So what's important is how much the national debt is going up, how much bonds are actually being sold and so we've got record budget deficits and now we've got the Federal Reserve that wants to sell and the bigger problem is who's buying?

The Next Round Of QE Will Send Gold To New All-Time Highs

Everybody thinks quantitative easing is over what they don't realize is it's barely begun the next round is gonna be bigger than the first three and that's really what's gonna send gold to new highs.

Related trading tickers:

• SPDR Gold Trust ETF (GLD)
• Market Vectors Gold Miners ETF (GDX), 
• Market Vectors Junior Gold Miners ETF (GDXJ)
• Newmont Mining (NEM)
• Barrick Gold (ABX)
• Kinross Gold Corporation (USA) (NYSE:KGC)

Why Investors Are Wrong About Gold

Gold has really been an asset that has been under owned for many years. I think you have too many people that are convinced that the central banks know what they're doing and that they've solved all of our problems and that there's no inflation, that there's nothing to worry about and therefore there's no reason to own gold. Gold is just a piece of metal and why own it right, it doesn't throw off any income? But of course people are completely wrong.

Stock Market: This Is A Bubble Deflating

Peter Schiff comments on the current situation in the US stock market.

This Is A Bear Market

I've been calling for a bear market and I think this is a bear market and if we get a rally that will be the correction because the primary trend is now down. This is early in this bear market, it's very young and unfortunately it's going to be very long-lived.

I think this is going to be similar if not worse than the bear market that went from 1966 to 1982. It took 16 years for the Dow to make a new high and during that time period inflation took about 70 percent away from the Dow's value. This time I think it's going to be worse.

Apple (AAPL) Now in a Bear Market

"But there was some other particularly bad news that came in before the opening bell, and that one was from Apple (AAPL). They said they will be cutting production because of lower sales. That decision trickles down, effecting a lot of companies who count on those orders from Apple (AAPL). The price of Apple (AAPL) is down by 4% on the day. But if you now look at the total drop - just over 20% - and that means the way Wall Street scores it, Apple is now in a bear market." 

- excerpt from the Peter Schiff Show, Episode 415, The Confidence Bubble Has Popped

In The Short Run Gold & Silver Are Going Way Up

I don't think that (price manipulation) is the primary reason that the price of gold and silver have been going down. I don't think it's just manipulation. I think people just are completely clueless with respect to what's actually going on in the world. They don't understand the US economy, they do not  understand the Federal Reserve but they're about to get a rude awakening and the smart money is buying gold whether it's being manipulated or not in the short run both and silver are both going way up in the long run and the long run may be here much sooner than people think.

Smart Money Is Buying Precious Metals

Bitcoin: Capitulation Is A Long Way Off

If you think Bitcoin falling to $5,200 constitutes capitulation, think again. Very few, if any HODLers have actually thrown in the towel.

Capitulation is a long way off and will come at much lower prices and with far less fanfare, as CNBC will have long since abandon coverage!

Stock Market: Many Sectors Already In Bear Market Territory

The retailers are all gonna be in a bear market relatively soon, some of them of course already are. They're just blown up left and right but if these key sectors are going into bear markets like the financials then what is the odds that the entire market doesn't go into a bear market? 

This is a case of absolute and complete denial.

(audio excerpt from the Peter Schiff Podcast, Ep. 413: Investors Oblivious as Multiple Bubbles Pop)

Goldman Sachs (GS) In Bear Market Territory. Other Financials Will Follow

Look at the financials. Goldman Sachs (GS) is now down about 27 percent from its high so it is officially in a bear market.

(If Goldman) it's in a bear market what are the odds that the rest of the sector isn't gonna follow the lead of Goldman Sachs (GS)? I would say pretty slim. So, clearly the financials are gonna be in a bear market (and) they're gonna join other sectors that are already in a bear market like housing.

(audio excerpt from the Peter Schiff Podcast, Ep. 413: Investors Oblivious as Multiple Bubbles Pop) 

Apple (AAPL) Stock Is In Bear Market Territory

Look at some of the big stocks that are selling off. Apple (AAPL) down again today down 2.7 percent on the day but now Apple is finally in a bear market. It's now down better than 20 percent from the highs - so what's the odds that now that Apple is in a bear market that the rest of the market isn't going to follow?

Weakness On Housing Stocks

The biggest canary (just another one of those dead canaries that these miners are ignoring) is what's going on in the housing stocks. We got more bad news on housing this week you got no warning going forward from DR Horton I think the stock was down 10 percent.

Stock Market: The Gains From The Midterms Rally Will Be Surrendered

I thought that relief rally was just another dead cat bounce that the fundamentals and the technicals still looked horrible for the US stock market I expected that rally to reverse and of course that process has already begun Thursday and Friday I think it will continue next week and I think the rest of those gains will be surrendered.

Real Estate: The Entire Market Is Going To Blow Up

I think that mortgage applications are going to go a lot lower. I think the entire market is pretty much gonna blow up and a good example of what's coming was the earnings that came out today from Zillow.

Zillow stock was down almost 27% on the day it actually closed just below $30 a share. The high this year was $65.70 so obviously the price of Zillow has been more than cut in half since this summer and I remember specifically on this podcast criticizing a move that Zillow made that is partially responsible for the plunging stock price.

What Zillow decided to do was actually go into the business of flipping real estate. They were not just gonna provide a platform for people to list their homes and for realtors to prospect for clients and all that, they actually were gonna get into the housing market by buying houses themselves and then listing them for sale. So, basically kind of like market making in homes, trying to pick up bargains and then sell their own houses on Zillow rather than simply act as a middleman. And I said this was a very risky move for Zillow to be making at a very bad time when you had the housing market topping, when you had mortgage rates rising.

I said this was a huge mistake, an indicative of a top and that is exactly what's happening. In fact if you look at their earnings, Zillow has bought a lot more houses than they've been able to sell so they now have a huge inventory of houses that they own, that they're trying to unload and of course they're not going to be able to do it because the buyers are just not there.

This Is Going To Be A Protracted Bear Market

This is going to be a protracted bear market like the one we had from 1966 to 1982 with 16 years without a new stock market high.The cost of living back then went up dramatically, and it’s going to rise even more dramatically during this secular bear market.

A Bubble Economy, A Brutal Recession & Interest Rates

Peter Schiff was active this week commenting the recent action in the markets. Here's a snapshot of the most interesting articles:

Peter Schiff: The Truth Is We Don't Have A Booming Economy; We Have A Bubble

Peter Schiff: The Recession That's Coming Is Going To Be Brutal (Video) 

Stock market will collapse with Fed raising interest rates: Peter Schiff (in Fox Business)

$5000 Gold Prices Could Be In Our Very Near Future

General Electric (GE) Is Less Valuable When It Can't Pay A Dividend

General Electric (GE) closed at $10.10 down 8 cents and it made a new multi-year low. It's the first time it's been below ten dollars in 8 or 9 years. The reason that GE got clobbered by 9 percent yesterday was because they had announced the evening before that they were eliminating their dividend and so obviously GE is a lot less valuable when it can't pay a dividend.

This Rally Is A Correction In A Bear Market

The fact that there is no fear to me shows that it's more likely that this is not the end of the correction but the beginning of the bear market and that this rally is the correction. In bull markets, the market going down is a correction because the trend is still positive, still up - well, in a bear market it's the opposite the rallies are the corrections.