Crude Oil Will Put Pressure On The U.S. Economy

This is going to add additional downward pressure to the US Economy while putting upward pressure on the measured rates of inflation and maybe putting more pressure on the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates which is the last thing Donald Trump wants the Federal Reserve to do.

Gasoline Prices Are Going To Keep Rising

Look at the retail sales numbers we just got. The strongest part of it was gasoline because consumers are paying higher prices for gas. Gas prices are gonna continue to rise. 

Crude Oil Is Heading Higher

Crude Oil prices are heading higher says Peter Schiff.

Topics: Crude Oil market, Iran sanctions
Related trading tickers: Energy Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLE), United States Oil Fund LP ETF (USO)

The Banks Do Not Want The Return Of The Gold Standard

All the CEOs of the bailed out banks testifying before Congress don't want to end the Federal Reserve or return to a gold standard. Under a gold standard no future bank bailouts are possible. The Federal Reserve protects bankers from suffering the market consequences of their mistakes.

Printing Money Is Taxation In Another Form

“Printing money is merely taxation in another form. Rather than robbing citizens of their money, governments robs their money of its purchasing power.”

- Peter Schiff

Stock Market: The Trump Put

It's not just the Powell Put. The stock market also benefits from the Trump Put. Anytime the market falls Trump simply tweets something positive about a pending trade deal with China. Since Trump can't play this card if an actual deal is made, his incentive is not to make one!

Related trading tickers: SPDR S&P 500 Index ETF (SPY), Nasdaq 100 Index ETF (QQQ), SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF (DIA)

The Real Reason Why The Fed Cannot Raise Rates

The truth is they can't raise interest rates because we have too much debt we can't afford right a normal rate of interest. Because we have an abnormal amount of debt they can't shrink the balance sheet, the deficits are too high and if they did shrink the balance sheet it would put too much upward pressure on long-term interest and it would collapse the bubble.

The Coming Recession Will Be Bearish For Bonds

Wait until investors figure out that the coming recession will be bearish for bonds. This time soaring budget deficits and a return to QE and ZIRP will result in a sharp fall in the dollar and rise in consumer prices. With stagflation real demand for bonds falls as supply rises!

Related trading instruments: 10- year U.S. Treasuries, iShares Barclays 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT), ProShares UltraShort Lehman 20+ Year ETF (TBT)

Investors Are Fearless!

On CNBC this morning a prominent asset manager boasted he is buying U.S. stocks because investors are so fearful of an inverting yield curve and that the 2nd longest economic expansion is nearing its end. While investors should fear that and more, they don't. Investors are fearless!

Federal Reserve, Crude Oil Prices & Credit Card Debt

Fed's Dovish Posture: A Big Mistake

Every clueless commentator on CNBC is applauding the Fed's dovish posture. They don't understand that this shift was the inevitable result of prior monetary policy mistakes. Rather than acknowledging and leaning from those mistakes, the Federal Reserve is just making even larger ones now! 

FOMC Meeting: Gold and U.S. Dollar Reaction

The fact that the U.S. dollar is not already tanking and gold soaring underscores just how clueless investors remain as to the future trajectory of the U.S. economy and past efficacy of #Fed monetary policy. They are in for a rude awakening. 

Government Bonds: Few Real Buyers For Longer-Dated Maturities

The real reason the Federal Reserve is lengthening its balance sheet is that it knows there are few real buyers for longer-dated maturities. This will only worsen the Federal Reserve losses when it eventually sells those securities to fight inflation, or the public's losses if it choses not to!

Inflation & Crude Oil Prices

The decline in oil prices is the main reason Powell claims he is not worried about rising inflation. Yet oil prices are already up by 33% this year, rising above $60 per barrel today. Oil prices may actually double in 2019. As the U.S. economy slows, the CPI will rise faster.

Americans Owe Over  $1 Trillion In Credit Card Debt

Americans owe over $1 trillion in credit card debt and recent polling data indicates they aren’t paying off those balances anytime soon. (related stocks: Visa (V), Mastercard (MA), American Express (AXP))

A Bear Market Rally

I actually think the US stock market entered a stealth bear market at the beginning of 2018. But we didn't officially enter a bear market with the major averages dropping 20% or more in the fourth quarter of 2018.

 Then the Federal Reserve did exactly what I said they would do the minute the market either entered a bear territory or got close enough to do it to scare the Federal Reserve. I said from before the Fed even raised interest rates for the first time that if they ever attempted to normalize interest rates their attempt would fail that they could never complete the journey because along the way the market would break and the Federal Reserve would have to cut off the interest rate hikes and that's exactly what they did.

I also said that the initial calling off of future interest rate hikes would only create a relief rally in the market and that's what we've had. This rally is the correction. In bear markets the rises are the corrections, the opposite of a bull market. So, I think the Federal Reserve by throwing the markets this lifeline has created this bear market correction, this rally.

Trump Will Reach A Trade Deal With China

Trump will read a trade deal with China. In Peter Schiff`s opinion he has to. On a recent interview with RT.com, Peter explained why President Trump cannot afford not to have a deal. Read and watch the complete interview here: ‘Trump will reach trade deal with China, he can’t afford not to,’ Peter Schiff tells RT’s Boom Bust

Global Economic Weakness

Weakness in the global economy is not going to spill over into the U.S. economy. The U.S. economy will weaken on its own due to a host of domestic problems far greater than what overseas economies are dealing with. As the U.S. enters recession, the global economy will improve.

Trade Deal: Will The Markets Sell The News?

Since expectations of a great U.S. - China trade deal are so high, the market is poised to sell the news, particularly if the over-hyped deal does not live up to expectations. The best way for Trump to avoid disappointing markets is to delay an actual deal for as long as possible.

Precious Metals: Silver Will Rise Even More

Look at last time. Silver went up to $50 per ounce from $3 to $4 an ounce in 2000-2001. Gold went to $1,900 per ounce, but silver went to $50 per ounce. It was a much bigger percentage gain. If I am right about gold going to $5,000 to $10,000 (per ounce), I am sure the percentage gain in silver will be even bigger.

Gold Is The Last Thing You Should Be Shorting

I think this is the calm before the storm. People don’t really perceive it. Gold shorts are going to lose an incredible amount of money. That’s probably one of the most foolish things you can do. There are a lot of great things out there to short. Gold is the last thing you should be shorting. 

For central banks, gold is the safest reserve asset. It’s the only asset that is not somebody else’s liability. I think the world is going back to gold.

$5,000, $10,000 (per ounce) who knows how high it’s going to go. There is no real ceiling on the price of gold because there is no floor to the value of the dollar and other fiat currency. Gold is going to skyrocket.

The U.S. Dollar Is Going To Collapse

I think when they start to try to reflate the assets in stocks, real estate and in bonds, they are just going to prick the dollar bubble, and that’s when we have a real crisis. The dollar is going to collapse, and America’s days of living beyond its means is going to come to an end.

Jerome Powell Dismissed Surging Auto Loan Delinquencies

On 60 Minutes Jerome Powell dismissed surging auto loan delinquencies by saying they merely reflect that not everyone is benefitting from the widespread prosperity the U.S. is currently enjoying. But soaring delinquencies are more evidence that the prosperity is not widespread!

The Only Potential Risks Powell Sees Right Now

Jerome Powell told 60 Minutes that the only potential risks he sees facing the U.S. economy are slowing economies in Europe and Asia. Record Federal, state, corporate, and personal debts do not concern him at all. He is also not worried about the housing or auto markets. Crazy!

First Down Week For U.S. Stocks In 2019

In fact, this is the first down week that the U.S. stock market has had in 2019. Something tells me it's certainly not going to be the last.

China - U.S. Trade Deal: "I don't think we're gonna have a substantive deal"

I don't think we're gonna have a substantive deal that gets to the root cause of that I think that there's gonna be a deal I've been saying that since the beginning I think that Trump can't afford not to have a deal so there's gonna be one but it's not going to turn around America's massive trade deficit with China.

Stock Market & U.S. - China Trade Deal

The market already expects a trade deal – a good trade deal. I think that is a dangerous position for the United States because it puts President Trump in a position where he really has to deliver.

More Signs Of Economic Weakness

Look at the data coming out: (we had) the biggest drop in retail sales in one month since 2009 when we were in the Great Recession. 

Look at the numbers we got out on delinquencies in auto loans: they are at an all-time record high, on people who are 90 days or more behind in their car payments.

I just read today that restaurant sales are falling now for four out of the last five months at the fastest pace in more than 25 years. That means that restaurant sales now are weaker than they were in the 2001 recession or in the 2008 recession.

The Real National Emergency

Of course the real national emergency is not the lack of a wall, the failure to build a wall but building up the national debt to $22 trillion! We eclipse that dubious milestone earlier in the week and again when you talk about the national debt at $22 trillion we're talking about the tip of a huge iceberg. 

This is just a funded portion of the debt and it doesn't include liabilities like what the government owes for social security, guaranteed bank deposits or student loans. That's not there, those are contingent liabilities and they're just as real but they're not even part of the national debt.

So, when you look at all the liabilities that the US government is on the hook for, you're talking about well over a $100 trillion or $200 trillion. Twenty trillion is maybe five or ten percent of the debt but that debt that is the real national emergency.

Portfolio Allocation: "I Have A Lot Of Money In Gold Stocks"

I have a lot of money in gold stocks, more the senior producers. But I also have a lot of global stocks that pay good dividends. 

I could be 40 percent gold stocks and the rest are non-gold stocks, some of those are energy stocks too. But overall they're just good businesses I like around the world in currencies I like. I get a lot of dividends coming.

US Dollar: The Catalyst For The Big Drop

As the US economy weakens and the Federal Reserve starts monetizing all those debts again, which they will, there's gonna be no demand for dollars and the US Dollar is gonna fall like a stone.

The US Economy Is A Gigantic Credit Bubble

I think the longest bull market in history already ended. We're in a correction right now, the first correction of the new bear market.

This idea that the US is the cleanest dirty shirt in the hamper is a bunch of nonsense. I mean the US economy is a gigantic credit bubble. Debt is at an all-time high on an individual level when you look at credit cards, student loans, auto debt... But more importantly the national debt: we're now running $100 billion per month deficit spending. We are borrowing more money now during this recovery than we did at any point during the Great Recession!

We Are In A Bear Market!

The financial media still doesn't get it. They are referring to the current decline in the stock market as a correction. It is not. We are in a bear market. The rally was the correction!

The Best Way To Use Gold

One of the best ways that man has figured out how to use gold is as money. Gold has been money for thousands of years and the reason it's lasted so long is because it works so well. But governments often try to control our lives and one of the things they try to do is control money, change money and substitute money for what we now use as fiat currencies.

Fiat currencies are just pieces of paper that governments declare as legal tender and which have value purely based on faith and confidence in tradition. But they don't have any value based on the intrinsic properties that they possess because they don't possess any. They are simply pieces of paper, there's no difference between a hundred dollar bill and a one dollar bill other than the number of zeros that's written on the paper.

Federal Reserve: Capitulation is the Beginning of the End

Peter Schiff gives a fantastic explanation of the current state of the stock market and how the Federal Reserve has made an 180 degree on monetary policy when the stock markets crashed in the forth quarter of 2018.

Will Gold Finally Make A Comeback?

Peter Schiff recently participated in the Ultimate Gold Panel (VRIC) moderated by Kitco's Daniela Cambone. 

Panel introduction: I don't have to remind many of you that gold has been in a Dead Money trade for a long time now we were above seventeen hundred and twenty eleven but you know for the next four years we've just gone down down down and now we've been stuck in this range of 1,200 to 1,300 so the question is is 2019 the year for gold can it finally make that comeback?

Inflation Pressures Will Be Bullish For Gold

As inflation pressures start to pick up more investors are going to acknowledge the benefits of owning gold. You can watch the whole video interview with Kitco here: Peter Schiff: "More People Will Wake Up" To Gold’s Benefits

The End Of Quantitative Tightening

As I forecast from the day the Federal Reserve first announced its plan to shrink its balance sheet, it now admits it will abort the process long before it's finished. I also forecast that this policy reversal would be a precursor to a return to quantitative easing (QE). That forecast will soon come true too.

More People Are Going To Wake Up To The Benefits Of Owning Gold

We've entered a bear market and we're now in a correction, we're having a rally in a bear market in the US. But I think this is early in the bear market so as that grinds down, as we make new lows and as inflation really starts to take a toll on the real value of people's savings and their investments (not just their stocks but in particular their bonds, their savings the cash value of their insurance policies) as inflation too starts to erode away their purchasing power, more and more people are gonna wake up to the benefits of owning gold.

The Primary Trend In Stocks Is Down

Because the bubble popped we entered a bear market in the US. Right now we're having our first correction in that bear market where you get a rally.

In a bull market the corrections are down. Well, in a bear market the corrections are when the market moves up and I think we're in one of those right now but I think the primary trend in stocks is down.

2008 Was Just The Warm Up

The 2008 one was just the warm up because the central banks were able to delay the consequences until the next crisis which is the one into which we are now headed. 

I believe this bubble has already popped except the air is only just starting to leak out and I think we're headed for a much worse crisis in the United States in particular that will actually end up being a sovereign debt and currency crisis.

Powell Does Not See Any Risks Of Asset Bubbles

Chairman Jerome Powell says the Federal Reserve does not see any risks of asset bubbles, excessive debt, or inflation. Given that no one at the Federal Reserve saw those risks in 2000 or 2008, nothing has changed. Since the current risks they are blind to are much larger, they will be blindsided by a larger crisis.

A 180 Degree Turn On Monetary Policy

If you look at Fed Chairman Powell's most recent comments he's now backing off of his talk about continuing to shrink the balance sheet and maybe not raise interest rates anymore and so that's kind of reflating the bubble a bit but I don't think that's enough to do it.

I think the air is still going to come out of the bubble. The interest rate hikes that have already taken place are too much for the over-leveraged US economy to bear. so I think the Federal Reserve ultimately is going to go back to zero interest rates. It's not just about to slowing down the shrinking of the balance sheet. 

I think they're gonna blow it back up even bigger with QE4 and of course when the Federal Reserve surprises the markets by doing a complete 180 on monetary policy, I think that you're gonna see the bottom drop out of the dollar and that's when you're really going see a big bid in the gold market.

An Inflationary Recession Is Coming

First of all, they're not going to raise interest rates in 2019, they're talking about doing that but what they're actually going to do is: they're gonna take interest rates back down to zero once it's obvious that the economy is in recession and they're going to launch another round of quantitative easing.

That is going to take a very bad situation and make it much worse because it's not going to work like it did last time in that it blew up a bigger bubble. This is going to blow up in everybody's face. It's not going to cause real estate prices to go up or stock prices to go up. 

It's gonna cause food prices to go up gasoline prices it's the cost of living that's gonna rise not the level of the stock market and so this is going to be an inflationary recession.

We Are On The Precipice Of A Much Worse Crisis

It's not a volatile economy it's a bubble economy thanks to the Federal Reserve they inflated an even bigger bubble on purpose than the one they inflated by accident that popped in 2008.

The economy is in much worse shape structurally today than it was before it fell apart the last time so this is the beginning of a much greater crisis of a much greater recession than the one that we experienced back in 2008.

The Fed Will Do Quantitative Easing All Over Again

I don't think that the President has a lot of fans at the Federal Reserve but I don't know that those guys are smart enough to know how to target him. I actually think that had the Federal Reserve not raised interest rates it would be worse right now because the only reason the US Dollar hasn't imploded is because the Federal Reserve is raising interest rates and because people believe they're gonna continue to raise interest rates.

Now, I don't believe that. Before Trump is finished with this term, interest rates will be back at zero and the Federal Reserve is gonna be doing quantitative easing all over again. Except it's gonna backfire because it's not going to reflate asset bubbles, it's gonna throw gasoline on the inflation fire.

The Economy Was Never Strong

Commentators keep asking why the Federal Reserve can't raise rates if the economy is so strong?

They still don't realize that the economy was never strong. They confuse a bubble for strength. Without zero percent interest rates and QE the bubble can't survive. But a return to those policies kills the US dollar!

So-Called Experts Are Still Optimistic About The US Economy

You have to go back to the summer of 2008 to see so many so-called experts so optimistic about the U.S. economy and so dismissive of overwhelming evidence that their optimism is unwarranted.

Related trading instruments: Sector Financial Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLF), SPDR S&P 500 Index ETF (SPY), Nasdaq 100 Index ETF (QQQ), SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF (DIA)

Stat: National Debt

A cool stat: "Between Christmas 2017 and Christmas 2018, the US government added a staggering $1,370,760,684,441.54 to the national debt."

If The Fed Comes To Rescue, Gold Will Rally

What people don’t understand is how much worse the economy is going to become once the Federal Reserve comes to the rescue. Gold is going to go through the roof.

Related trading instruments: SPDR Gold Trust ETF (GLD), Market Vectors Gold Miners ETF (GDX)

Podcast: The Market Was Expecting More From The Fed

Peter Schiff dissects the latest move from the Federal Reserve and its future implications for the markets.

"The selloff from the high to the low was just under 900 points. Earlier in the day the Dow had rallied up about 300 points because there was a lot of anticipation that even though the Fed was going to hike rates today, that it would indicate it would pause."

Related trading instruments: Select Sector Financial Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLF), SPDR S&P 500 Index ETF (SPY), Nasdaq 100 Index ETF (QQQ);

Markets: Russell 2000 Index Is Leading The Market Lower

Highlights from the most recent podcast (December 14th):

Peter cited the current weakness on the Russell 2000 Index and how it is leading the market lower:

"In fact, the weakest indexes continue to be the Russell 2000 - I've been talking about the weakness in the small caps. That index is now down better than 19% from its peak just about 4 months ago. So we're almost officially in bear market territory. We'll probably be there by Monday, judging by the technicals." 

Peter also mentioned the Dow Jones Transports as another index that is already trading at its lowest levels of the year:

"The other index that is leading the way down is the Dow Jones Transports. This index is now down better than 18% from its peak. Both the Transports and the Russell 2000 are at the lowest levels of the year."

Peter Schiff will be live on Fox Business News on Monday on the show "The Countdown to the Closing Bell" to discuss current market events. 

Federal Reserve: New Rounds Of QE Will Cause Stagflation

If we are going into recession and if the Federal Reserve is going to go back to the Quantitative Easing (QE) well and takes interest rates back to zero, the U.S. dollar is going to tank and the inflation fire is going to heat up and it’s going to be stagflation.

The Most Expensive Christmas Tree In Europe

Munich-based gold dealer Pro Aurum made the Christmas tree out of gold coins. They've dubbed it "the most expensive Christmas tree in Europe. With it being valued at $2.6 million, I don't doubt them.

"The “tree” stands 3 meters tall and weighs in at 63 kilograms of pure gold. That translates to 138.891 pounds – approximately. It features 2,018 solid gold one-ounce Vienna Philharmonic coins, topped by a massive 20-ounce coin, placed into a golden star." - in Schiff Gold

Nouriel Roubini On Crypto and Blockchain

"Expect 1000s of crypto & blockchain ventures to go bankrupt. Almost all were total vaporware: they had no goods, services, products, software, apps. They stole the money & run. Crooks!" 

- Nouriel Roubini, Twitter (December 10th, 2018)