Stock Market: Expensive, Complacency

The market has never been this expensive while at the same time so few people are worried that it might go down. (Select Sector Financial Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLF), Energy Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLE), SPDR S&P 500 Index ETF (SPY), SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF (DIA), iShares Russell 2000 Index ETF (IWM), Nasdaq 100 Index ETF (QQQ))

The Next Recession

Recessions have been happening for quite some time and you know the next one is long overdue and I do think that the enthusiasm surrounding the tax cuts and the gains in the market could well extend  the period between now and the next recession but I don't think it will extend it long enough for Trump to be reelected.

Bitcoin Is Going To Crash Down

I am sure that it is a bubble, in fact it's probably the biggest bubble I've ever seen in my career as an investor and I've seen quite a few bubbles and I'm familiar with this psychology that surrounds them.

And you know Bitcoin has all of the characteristics of a bubble, in fact it's not just Bitcoin it's the entire cryptocurrency space. I think it's a massive speculative bubble and maybe we've seen the top and maybe we haven't I don't know but I think when the top is in this thing is gonna come crashing down, it's not just gonna go down slowly. You know there's an expression that markets take the stairs up and the elevator down, well you know Bitcoin took a rocket ship up and it's gonna come down even faster.

2018 Outlook: Gold, Bitcoin

"If people earn more money because central banks create more money they use their additional incomes to bid up prices for everything so I think a lot of prices are gonna be rising not just the price of gold." 

"I do believe as more people perceive the threat of inflation and see the dangers of what the central banks have been doing I think the price of gold will rise faster than a lot of other prices as people embrace it as a hedge against inflation and as a store of value."

Bitcoin Bulls Are Going To Get Slaughtered

Bitcoin keeps going up, we are at in 17,000 today and look how big can the bubble get? I don't know. I mean I'm not that smart. I'm smart enough to know what is a bubble but I'm not smart enough to know where the peak is but there's an old saying, Bulls make money, Bears make money and pigs get slaughtered. And there are a lot of Bitcoin pigs I believe who are gonna get slaughtered so if you happen to own some Bitcoin and you bought them and you have some profits, sell.

Gold Will Rally In The New Year

In the last few years you've seen gold sell off at the end of the year and then rally pretty strong in the new year because what happens is towards the end of the year people get very optimistic about the future Oh things are gonna get better growth is gonna pick up the economy is gonna take off and so they get optimistic they buy stocks they buy the dollar a little bit they sell their gold and then the new year comes around and the hoped for rebound doesn't materialize and then they buy the gold back and the dollar sells off and and that's I think where we are.

Related trading instruments: SPDR Gold Trust ETF (GLD), Market Vectors Gold Miners ETF (GDX), Market Vectors Junior Gold Miners ETF (GDXJ)

The Tax Plan

I believe if this plan passes we are gonna have a tax code that is more gamable where more people are doing more things to rig the system or exploit the loopholes. Not that there's anything wrong with that I mean that's what every American is going to do righ, no American has a legal obligation to pay more taxes than what is owed and to the extent that you can rearrange your affairs such that you pay the lowest possible tax that's what everybody is going to do and that is why the projections that the Republicans are out there with that this is going to add just 1.5 trillion to the deficit over the next ten years are a bunch of nonsense. I'm sure that it will add more than twice as much more than three trillion to the deficit over the next 10 years.

Federal Reserve: 2 Years To Move The Rate From 0.00% to 1.375%

It's taken the Federal Reserve two years to move the rate from zero to 1.375%. This is an extraordinary amount of excess monetary stimulus to say that the Federal Reserve has been successful in normalizing rates is complete nonsense.

CNBC Becomes Crypto News BitCoin Network

This Bitcoin bubble is the most irrational of any of the bubbles I've seen. I think there is less of a legitimate case for Bitcoin than there was for any of the dot-com stocks that went to zero or buying subprime mortgages.

Wiping Out The Debt With Inflation

I think the problem we are going to be confronted with is going to be much worse than a financial crisis. It is going to be a US dollar crisis, and it is going to be a sovereign debt crisis where the bonds people are worried about are not some sub-prime mortgages,  it’s going to be the U.S. government that people are worried about and the solvency of the U.S. Treasuries.

If it’s a US dollar crisis and people are worried about the US dollar, the only thing worse than owning a dollar today is owning the promise of being paid in dollars in the future. 

I don’t think we have the courage to default and admit to our creditors that we don’t have the money and we can’t repay. I think we will create all the money that we need so we can pretend to repay, but what we end up doing is wiping out the debt with inflation.

Related trading instruments: SPDR Gold Trust ETF (GLD), iShares Silver ETF (SLV), iShares Barclays 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT)

Money: The Real Alternative Is Gold

People don't trust fiat currencies they don't trust a dollar euro yen they're looking for an alternative and believe me the real alternative is gold and more and more people are going to embrace it.

Related trading instruments: SPDR Gold Trust ETF (GLD), Market Vectors Gold Miners ETF (GDX), Market Vectors Junior Gold Miners ETF (GDXJ)

Silver Will Get To 40 At Some Point

Silver will get to 40 dollars an ounce at some point. (iShares Silver ETF (SLV), Hecla Mining (HL))

Another Reason Why Gold Prices Are Suppressed

A lot of the typical gold buyers who were worried about the economy when Barack Obama was President, they're not worried anymore. They think Donald Trump is gonna make America great again and they're wrong. He's not going to make America great again.

I hope America is great again at some point but it's not going to happen during the Trump presidency and people should be more worried because a lot of the problems that built up under Obama are getting worse under Trump.

Gold: People Don't Trust Fiat Currencies

People don't trust fiat currencies they don't trust a dollar euro yen they're looking for an alternative and believe me the real alternative is gold and more and more people are going to embrace it. (SPDR Gold Trust ETF (GLD), Market Vectors Gold Miners ETF (GDX), Market Vectors Junior Gold Miners ETF (GDXJ))

Real Estate: Prices Will Have To Go Down

Housing unit prices are gonna have to implode, prices are so high people can't afford them even with these ridiculously low interest rates. But in a higher interest rate environment where you know mortgage money is 8 to 10 percent, which was the average for many, many decades and you know that people had to put down payments, to I mean if we go back to the days where you need a 20 percent down payment, I mean imagine how low prices would have to fall for the average American to be able to come up with 20% down payments. (SPDR S&P Homebuilders (ETF) (XHB), KB Home (NYSE:KBH), Lennar Corporation (LEN), D.R. Horton (DHI))

Markets: Federal Reserve, Crude Oil

You look at the Fed minutes and it doesn't sound like a Fed that is getting ready to raise rates even though they're gonna do it. I mean they're talking about how much they're concerned and worried about the fact that inflation isn't high enough even though oil prices on Friday went above fifty nine dollars a barrel again, trading at almost a two-and-a-half year high.

Stock Market: The Trump Rally

Where Trump is is getting into trouble is by claiming that the stock market going up is no longer a bubble that now this is just a real bull market that reflects the improvement of the fundamentals since he's been elected.

That's not the case. This is simply more air into the same bubble and this bubble is going to burst and I think unfortunately now that Trump has branded it you know just like it was one of his buildings he's put the big Trump marker on it, when this thing pops it's he's gonna have to take the blame. (SPDR S&P 500 Index ETF (SPY), Nasdaq 100 Index ETF (QQQ), SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF (DIA), iShares Russell 2000 Index ETF (IWM))

Oil Prices Are Moving Higher

Oil prices got above $58 a barrel for the first time in over two years, a very strong oil market and if you look at the chart if we get above 60 dollars, I mean that's kind of a long -term moving average on a monthly chart, 60 to 75 was a key high from about two and a half years ago, if we take that out we can have a quick move up .

Remember the move down, oil fell from a hundred down to under 30 in about six months and then it's been recovering slowly ever since but if we can break through decisively that sixty to seventy-five we're gonna move up.

Gold Is Trying To Breakout

Gold (SPDR Gold Trust ETF (GLD)) still looks like it wants to break out somebody is obviously trying to stop that from happening or somebody's don't really know who these sellers are but I do think eventually whatever their agenda is the markets are going to overwhelm it.

There Is No Way Out, A Crisis Is Coming

There is no way off of this monetary policy. Once you take this much drugs you can never get off, not without massive withdrawal and so nobody politically wants to deal with that because if the Federal Reserve were to actually not come to the rescue next time the stock market wouldn't just go down 50 percent like it didn't in 2008-2009, it might go down 80 or 90 percent.

Banks would actually fail I mean the government would actually have to default on its debt but I don't think that is gonna happen because nobody in power wants to let that happen and so the US dollar is gonna be sacrificed. But ultimately in sacrificing the US dollar the damage that's going to be done to the economy and to the standard of living of the average American is going to be much greater than had we just bitten the bullet and dealt with the financial crisis.

How Much Debt Can The US Withstand?

We got 20 trillion in national debt, why can't we go to 35 trillion? Why can't we go to 40 trillion? 

Why can't we just continue to increase the national debt? 

It reminds me of the old adage about how many straws can you put on a on a camel's back? You don't know until you put that final straw that's one too many and then you break its back. 

So, can we go to 25 trillion? Maybe. But can we go to 30 trillion? We're not going to know. At some point we're gonna break the back of the camel with all this debt and then we're gonna find out how much debt we can pile on and it's not going to be pretty because then we're gonna have a crisis.

Dollar Crisis, Sovereign Debt Crisis

This is the third gigantic bubble that the Federal Reserve has inflated and when this one pops it's not going to be the third time's the charm. It's gonna be three strikes you're out because I think that this bubble is too big to pop. It's the mother of all bubbles and when it bursts there is not a bigger one that the Federal Reserve is going to be able to inflate to mask these problems meaning that we can't kick the can down the road anymore we're gone we're going to have to deal with these problems.

I think the problem that we're going to be confronted with is going to be much worse than a financial crisis, it is going to be a dollar crisis and it is going to be a sovereign debt crisis where the bonds that people are worried about are not some subprime mortgage that some guy borrowed money to buy a house that can't afford. It's going to be the US government that people are worried about and the the the solvency of the government and the Treasury bonds.

The Appeal of International Stocks

People who are in the US stock market are overlooking much better returns from much better valuation levels that are happening overseas. So, I think people should take advantage of the overpriced US stock market plus the overpriced US dollar and sell and move money abroad get into the international markets. (SPDR S&P 500 Index ETF (SPY), Nasdaq 100 Index ETF (QQQ), iShares MSCI Emerging Markets Index ETF (EEM))

Stock Market: The Valuations Here Are Extreme

The valuations here really are extreme, the complacency is also extreme. I mean investors are willing to pay very high prices and have very little worry that the stock market is going to go down.

People have very short memories, I mean we've had two major 50% declines in the stock market this century. Since 2000 we've had the market cut in half twice and it could easily happen again yet nobody seems concerned. 

Related trading instruments: SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF (DIA), SPDR S&P 500 Index ETF (SPY), Nasdaq 100 Index ETF (QQQ), iShares Russell 2000 Index ETF (IWM)

Thoughts On Powell As The New Fed Chairman

It's just more of the same but you know Powell embodies everything that candidate Trump criticized when he ran for office!

Instead of taking the opportunity to change the Fed he is simply reappointed or nominated somebody who is going to continue the very policies that he criticized when he was running for President and Powell is going to be just as political as Yellen except now the beneficiary is going to be Trump instead of Obama.

Video: "Trump Names Powell Fed Chairman"

RT Video: "Trump names Powell Fed Chairman"

Trump, Stock Market & Consumer Confidence

So we have the stock market at all time highs, we have consumer confidence high yet Donald Trump's popularity has never been lower! (SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF (DIA), SPDR S&P 500 Index ETF (SPY), Nasdaq 100 Index ETF (QQQ), iShares Russell 2000 Index ETF (IWM))

The Swiss National Bank Is A Big Investor In US Tech Stocks

The Swiss National Bank now has 88 billion dollars in US stocks alone. Their number one holding is Apple but if you look at their portfolio their top five holdings are Apple (AAPL) then Alphabet (which is Google), Microsoft (MSFT), Facebook (FB) and Amazon (AMZN). Those are the top five holdings of the Swiss National Bank and it also makes sense that those are some of the highest flying stocks in the US market because the Swiss National Bank just so you know they print Swiss francs for nothing, they create them out of thin air and then they go and they buy up US tech stocks.

There's only about seven and a half million people living in Switzerland including little babies. So they basically have more than ten thousand dollars of US stocks for every man, woman and child living in Switzerland. That means a family of four has got $40,000 worth of US stocks!

US Stock Market: Complacency, Overvaluation

I think if you look at the amount of complacency relative to the overvaluation stocks have really never been this expensive and people have never been this sure that they're not going to go down.

Related trading instruments: SPDR S&P 500 Index ETF (SPY), iShares Russell 2000 Index ETF (IWM), SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF (DIA), Nasdaq 100 Index ETF (QQQ)

Bull Markets: Foreign Stocks, Commodities

I think that we're early on in the bull markets in some of these foreign stock markets and again as I said, commodities in my opinion are just beginning a new bull market. (iShares MSCI Emerging Markets Index ETF (EEM), United States Oil Fund LP ETF (USO))

Gold Will Rise In US Dollar Terms

Gold will rise in US Dollar terms rather substantially as the dollar loses purchasing power, you will need more and more dollars to buy an ounce of gold among other things.

I think people that own gold will be able to preserve their purchasing power and of course gold is not the only asset that people can own but it's certainly one of the most reliable. I also I think today gold does not really reflect all the potential for inflation, the potential for dollar debasement. Investors are too complacent, they're too optimistic about the future and you can see that in the stock market but you can also see it in the price of gold because as stocks are going up, gold prices are not.

What Will Happen When The Stock Market Bubble Pops?

The Fed has inflated three gigantic stock market bubbles this century. The first one popped in 2001, the second one popped in 2008. Who knows when this one is gonna pop, but this is the biggest one yet and in the prior the market was cut in half. 

The only way the government was able to bail out investors was because the Fededral Reserve inflated a bigger bubble to replace the one that just popped. Well, I think this bubble is too big to replace. When it pops, that's it, the Fededral Reserve is out of tricks, there's not going to be a fourth one that they can inflate because in order to do that they will have to use so much stimulus that they will actually kill the dollar. They will end up overdosing on stimulus and we will have a dollar crash and that's gonna hurt investors but it's gonna hurt the economy even more.

Federal Reserve: Trump Will Announce His Pick

On Thursday, President Trump is supposedly going to announce his pick to replace Janet Yellen as the new Fed Chairman.

Madness of the Crowds: Bitcoin

Charles Mackay wrote a book, Extraordinary Popular Delusions and the Madness of the Crowds and I think if they republished that book they should add a chapter so they can put Bitcoin in there because it's all the same mentality, that's the lesson. Everybody (investing in Bitcoin) should read that book.

The Federal Reserve Will Not Upset The Status Quo

The Federal Reserve does not want to do anything that might upset the status quo. And at this point, the Fed is between a rock and a hard place. The central bank can normalize interest rates, which will ultimately pop the stock market bubble, or it can continue with its easy monetary policies and wreck the US Dollar. The Federal Reserve will ultimately sacrifice the currency (US Dollar) on the altar of the stock market.

Related trading instruments: SPDR S&P 500 Index ETF (SPY)

Real Vision: Discussing Gold and the US Dollar

Peter Schiff on Real Vision discussing the markets in general and gold in particular.

Related trading instruments: SPDR Gold Trust ETF (GLD), Market Vectors Gold Miners ETF (GDX), Market Vectors Junior Gold Miners ETF (GDXJ)

The Downside Risks Of Gold & Bitcoin

Bitcoin is approximately $6,000 a coin right now, It could be $600 a month from now. We don't know that, I mean it could be higher, it could be $10,000! Gold it's not likely to crash and if it goes down, you know gold has a real cost of mine and there's a lot of demand for it so there's a limit really. I mean if the price goes down there's not going to be any more of it made. (SPDR Gold Trust ETF (GLD))

Tax Cuts: Bullish For Gold, Bearish For The Dollar

If we get these tax cuts the US Dollar is going down, not up and gold is gonna go way up not down! (SPDR Gold Trust ETF (GLD), Market Vectors Gold Miners ETF (GDX), Market Vectors Junior Gold Miners ETF (GDXJ), iShares Silver ETF (SLV))

The Problem With Bitcoin

The only person who would be willing to buy my Bitcoin is somebody who believes he can also sell it to somebody else at a higher price.

So you always need the idea that there's always gonna be somebody else willing to buy my asset at a higher price than I paid because there's no other use for it. You can't do any thing with it, it's not going to generate any income if it just sits there, you can't use it in industry, there's no actual function that it serves other than my ability to sell it to somebody else.

Bitcoin Moved Through Another Milestone

Bitcoin has moved through another milestone over the weekend we were trading above 6,000 I think we got close to 6,200 not sure if we got above it as there are so many different exchanges that's hard for me to keep track. I know as I'm recording now we're at about 5,000 we did get back down to almost 5600 during the day so again the volatility continues but the direction is clearly up. I would put the support now around 5,000 that used to be resistance so at this point 5,000 or so or maybe just below is the support in the market right now. 

There was some selling intraday and then you had billionaire Saudi Prince Alwaleed talking on CNBC and they were asking the guy a lot of questions about a lot of things and obviously you know he's pretty influential because he oversees an enormous amount of money, you've got all the kingdoms oil revenues coming in and so he's got a lot of money to invest and he has a huge portfolio, he is a big shareholder, he owns a lot of US stocks as well and he was asked about Bitcoin and cryptocurrencies.

The Saudi Prince was very negative about Bitcoin. He said it was an Enron in the making that he does not understand it, he thinks it's gonna crash and I think what's interesting though about the Saudi Prince`s criticism is what he points out as being the problems are exactly the benefits that the people who are buying see in the currency. I mean if at this point there's lots of people who are just buying it because it's going up so they don't really have any other allegiance to other than the fact that it's going up.

Video: New Fed Chair, Stock Market and Gold

Peter Schiff discusses the gold outlook with RT.com

Related trading instruments: SPDR Gold Trust ETF (GLD), Market Vectors Gold Miners ETF (GDX), Market Vectors Junior Gold Miners ETF (GDXJ)

Rising Inflation Will Be Bullish For Gold

Peter Schiff explains in this podcast why a rise in U.S. inflation will be bullish for the precious metals and at the same time bearish for the U.S. Dollar. 

"The reality is, higher inflation is not going to produce a tighter monetary policy. The Federal Reserve is going to have to ignore the higher inflation which means the inflation is going to get even worse!"

Related trading instruments: SPDR Gold Trust ETF (GLD), Market Vectors Gold Miners ETF (GDX)

This Is Bullish For Gold

Ultimately if the Federal Reserve has to make a choice between fighting inflation and unemployment because the Federal Reserve believes in the Phillips curve, the trade-off between inflation and employment, the Federal Reserve will always choose to fight unemployment or to prop up the labor market and sacrifice its inflation goal. (SPDR Gold Trust ETF (GLD), Market Vectors Gold Miners ETF (GDX), Market Vectors Junior Gold Miners ETF (GDXJ))

There's Optimism Everywhere Except Gold

There's optimism everywhere except when it comes to gold and that's the one place where people should be optimistic and it's the one place they're not. (Market Vectors Gold Miners ETF (GDX), Market Vectors Junior Gold Miners ETF (GDXJ), SPDR Gold Trust ETF (GLD), iShares Silver ETF (SLV))

Investors Are More Convinced That They Can't Lose Than At Any Prior Time ($VIX, $SPY, $VXX)

If you look at that the VIX is at all-time record lows so investors have never been this complacent about the US stock market ever and pretty much all of those measures that measure fear and confidence are at the highest readings they've ever been even though the US stock market is extremely expensive and it's only been this expensive during previous bubbles, near the peaks of previous bubbles. But what's different about this bubble is it’s bigger but people are even more confident now that it's not a bubble. You have less fear, less anxiety, investors are more convinced that they can't lose than at any prior time despite the fact that ww actually probably have more risk now than during any of the previous bubbles.

Stock Market: Optimism and Enthusiasm

Markets continue to move up day after day, it's almost like a melt up at this point of optimism and enthusiasm despite the enormity of the problems that everybody wants to sweep under the rug and you got a mountain of stuff already underneath it. I think the newest catalyst that is fueling the euphoria is the anticipation of these tax cuts that are coming. (SPDR S&P 500 Index ETF (SPY), iShares Russell 2000 Index ETF (IWM), Nasdaq 100 Index ETF (QQQ), SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF (DIA))

Fed Nonsense

The FOMC minutes indicate the Federal Reserve is worried that inflation will not be high enough. That is the last thing the Federal Reserve should be worried about! (SPDR Gold Trust ETF (GLD), iShares Silver ETF (SLV))

The Fed Will Not Be Able To Save The Stock Market

The Federal Reserve won't be able to rescue investors during the next stock market crash, like they did in the years following the 2000 and 2008 crashes. They were successful in reflating yet another bubble but I think this bubble will be the similar fate as the prior two. The difference is, the third time is not going to be the charm - it's going to be three strikes you're out. Let's say the Dow goes to 30,000, if it gets cut in half, that's 15,000 - that's still a low lower than it is right now. (SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF (DIA), SPDR S&P 500 Index ETF (SPY), Nasdaq 100 Index ETF (QQQ))

Renewed Weakness In The US Dollar

Gold is still hanging out below 1300 and the renewed weakness in the US Dollar, I think part of the renewed weakness in the US Dollar has to do with the idea that maybe all these tax cuts aren't going to pass that this Republican plan or the Trump plan that was outlined it's gonna have a hard time getting through Congress.

Stock Market: Optimism and Euphoria

Markets continue to move up day after day, it's almost like a melt up at this point of optimism and enthusiasm despite the enormity of the problems that everybody wants to sweep under the rug and  you got a mountain of stuff already underneath it. I think the newest catalyst that is fueling the euphoria is the anticipation of these tax cuts that are coming. (SPDR S&P 500 Index ETF (SPY), iShares Russell 2000 Index ETF (IWM), Nasdaq 100 Index ETF (QQQ), SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF (DIA))

US Dollar Recent Strength Is Just Noise

I don't think anything's really gonna happen there (the vote in Spain with Catalonia voting to separate from Spain) I mean pretty much everybody the EU is saying if these guys leave we're not gonna recognize them. Spain is saying that they don't recognize the validity of the election...so I doubt anything's gonna happen there but I guess all this uncertainty weighing on the Euro and that helped prop up the US Dollar which has continued to rise ever since the supposed bullish comments by Janet Yellen about hiking rates and shrinking the balance sheet. So now we're back up to about 93.50 on the US Dollar Index, gold back down about $1280 or so but I think the fundamentals are still there for the weak dollar I think this is all a bunch of noise.

International Stocks Beating U.S. Stocks

US stock markets were overshadowed by international markets thanks in large part to the weakness in the US dollar. The US Dollar did recover some of its losses in this closing week of the quarter. I believe again a bit of a dead cat bounce as I think the dollar is probably going to have its weakest quarter of the year in the fourth quarter.

Related trading instruments: Dax 30 Index, EuroStoxx 50 Index, Nikkei 225, FTSE 100 Index, HSI Index, Kospi Index;

Trump Tweets About The Record Highs In The Stock Market

Donald Trump was tweeting about the record highs in the stock market earlier this morning. Of course when we were having record highs under Obama it was a bubble and it didn't matter but now that it's his bubble it's now a bull market and it simply shows what a great job he's doing as President.

Related trading instruments: SPDR S&P 500 Index ETF (SPY), Nasdaq 100 Index ETF (QQQ), iShares Russell 2000 Index ETF (IWM)

U.S. Markets: Who Will Replace The Fed’s Purchasing Power?

Peter Schiff recently left this unanswered question on his Twitter, "One big concern going forward is who will step up to replace the Fed’s purchasing power in the US Securities market?" 

This comes after last week’s announcement that the Federal Reserve will begin reducing its massive balance sheet. 

Trump Tax Plan: Highlights

Peter Schiff discussed the pros and cons of the Trump tax plan. Here are the highlights:

"President Trump announced some of  the details of his highly anticipated tax reform which is really not tax reform it's more of a tax cut masquerading as a reform."

"I would say the best part about it is the elimination of the estate tax."

Gold: Below 1,300 Will Likely Be A Buying Opportunity

Peter Schiff’s most recent commentary on gold:

"We are at 1290 on the price of gold, so we're right below where I thought the support was at 1300." 

"I'm not that worried that we're going all the way back down to 1200."

"I don't think we see a bigger pullback though given the fact that we're not getting a rise in the dollar and oil prices are now comfortably holding above $50 a barrel."

"Strong oil, a weak dollar, to me that means that gold prices are likely heading higher even though we're a little bit below that support, I think that people are gonna buy it, I do think that 1300 is maybe the new 1200 so anything under that I think is going to be looked at as a buying opportunity."

Related trading instruments: SPDR Gold Trust ETF (GLD), Market Vectors Gold Miners ETF (GDX), Market Vectors Junior Gold Miners ETF (GDXJ), Barrick Gold (ABX), NovaGold (NG), Newmont Mining (NEM)

The Federal Reserve Is In A Box

The Federal Reserve is in a box, they boxed themselves in because they've kept interest rates so low for so long, they've allowed so much debt to accumulate that now it's impossible to allow interest rates to rise. But they can't admit that so they have to pretend as if everything's gonna be fine, they're gonna be able to normalize interest rates, they're gonna be able to shrink their balance sheet. None of this is possible and it's only a question of time before traders and investors figure it out.

Markets: Yellen, US Dollar and Gold

The US Dollar got a bit of a bounce but very little in the way of upward trajectory despite the the supposed hawkishness and the way the markets are greeting what Janet Yellen said. 

So the US Dollar is already falling but it's not collapsing yet. I mean, it's falling but people are still not completely aware, there's just not enough bearishness yet in the US Dollar. Obviously if there was the price of gold (SPDR Gold Trust ETF (GLD)) would be taking off but we're not too far away from that point and when the US Dollar starts to fall next time there's gonna be nothing stopping it.

Bitcoin, Gold and The Madness Of The Crowds

In a recent podcast, Peter Schiff advised Bitcoin investors to read the book Extraordinary Popular Delusions and the Madness of Crowds and put gold and Bitcoin in an interesting historic perspective when he mentioned that in a few thousand years, Gold will still be money while bitcoin and the other crypto currencies will be just a blip in history:

"...gold will still be money who knows if anybody will even remember a Bitcoin or any of these crypto currencies that existed for a relative nanosecond in the history of time but I don't know I mean maybe they'll write a new chapter in that book popular delusions and the madness of crowds and by the way if you own some bitcoins get a copy of that  book and read it because it is very applicable to what's going on now."

Related trading instruments: Bitcoin, SPDR Gold Trust ETF (GLD), Market Vectors Gold Miners ETF (GDX),

Toys R Us Bankruptcy: Companies Saddled With Debt Can’t Respond to a Changing Marketplace

The air is rushing out of the retail bubble. It’s easy to finger-point at the internet and blame it for the black cloud enveloping the brick and mortar retail sector. But in truth, it’s not all Amazon’s fault. During a podcast last spring, Peter Schiff put his finger on a more fundamental problem. 

While online sales have increased significantly, they still don’t make up for the total decline in sales in brick-and-mortar stores. Peter believes the problems in the retail sector reveal disturbing economic truths about middle America. 

"Another reason people are shopping on the internet, other than just the convenience of not leaving your house when you’re doing your shopping, is the fact that the average American shopper is broke. They can barely afford to buy the stuff that they’re buying. In fact, most people are buying stuff that they can’t afford. They’re just buying anyway and they’re using a credit card…Retailing is a shrinking market because Americans’ pocketbooks are shrinking, their paychecks are shrinking.”

Related: Toys R Us

Jamie Dimon (J.P. Morgan): Bitcoin Is A Fraud

Jamie Dimon came out and said bitcoin is is a fraud so now I'm kind of in his camp although I don't agree with everything that Jamie Dimon said and I think that there are problems that Bitcoin has that he doesn't even understand. He just assumes that the government is gonna shut Bitcoin down and you know if it actually worked he would be right.

Russia and China Are Buying Gold

Russia and China are buying gold specifically to minimize their dependence on the US dollar. (SPDR Gold Trust ETF (GLD), Newmont Mining (NEM), Barrick Gold (ABX), Market Vector Russia ETF Trust (RSX), iShares FTSE/Xinhua China 25 Index ETF(FXI))

Federal Reserve: A Cosmetic Reduction In Its Balance Sheet

Even if the Federal Reserve does get away with a cosmetic reduction in its balance sheet, the total will be completely reversed by the first month of QE4. (SPDR Gold Trust ETF (GLD), SPDR S&P 500 Index ETF (SPY), Nasdaq 100 Index ETF (QQQ), iShares Russell 2000 Index ETF (IWM), SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF (DIA))

Eliminating The Debt Ceiling

Now they're talking about eliminating the debt ceiling.

Donald Trump has got some kind of gentlemen's agreement going on with the Democrats that, "Hey, let's just get rid of this debt ceiling so that we never have to deal with the fact that maybe it won't be lifted" because the politicians have succeeded in making irresponsibility look responsible because every time there's a threat not to raise the debt ceiling they label the people who don't want to raise it as reckless or irresponsible. They say,  "You have to raise it, America always pays its bills you can't play around with our faith and credit."

The irony of it is we never pay our bills. That's why we have all this debt, I we were paying our bills we wouldn't have to raise the debt ceiling.

Stock Market, Tax Reform

I think the catalyst for the rise in the stock market continues to be the enthusiasm that really started yesterday based on president Trump's announcement that he was close to a deal on tax cuts and that the deal is supposed to be announced sometime before the end of the month.

Now of course, I've seen this movie before. I mean Trump has come out and made a lot of statements about a deal being ready being on the table, gonna happen soon and of course so far every time he has touted this nothing has materialized. 

Yet the markets are not looking at the boy who cried wolf, now they actually believe the President, they think he's serious and one of the things that he's saying that maybe makes this more credible is that he's saying that he's working with the Democrats that if he can't get something done with the Republicans he's already working on a plan with the Democrats and so one way or another we're gonna get this major tax reform.

But of course it's not really going to be tax reform. It's going to be tax cuts based on what the President is saying. We're not going to reform the tax code, we're not going to have a major shift that is going to make the economy more productive. 

The  President has already said that the rich are not going to get a tax cut at all. They may even have a tax hike. So if you're not going to lower the top rate if you're not going to reduce the marginal rate of tax you're really not going to get any economic stimulus because that's where the growth comes from. Where you lower the marginal rate and you may have a situation where people actually work harder at lower tax rates and produce more taxable income.

Gold: Hurricane Related Sell-off Is A Buying Opportunity

The smart money is taking they the other side on this trade. They are buying the gold on this dip buying the gold stocks on this dip. (SPDR Gold Trust ETF (GLD), Market Vectors Gold Miners ETF (GDX), Market Vectors Junior Gold Miners ETF (GDXJ), Barrick Gold (ABX), Newmont Mining (NEM), Goldcorp (GG))

Foreign Stocks Are Outperforming US Stocks

At this point it's the people that are in the US market that are underperforming the people who are invested outside the US market. (iShares MSCI Emerging Markets Index ETF (EEM))

US Dollar: Worst Year Since 1985?

The US Dollar had a substantial rise based on the expectation that the Federal Reserve would be able to normalize interest rates and unwind its massive balance sheet plus a general belief that the Fed's experiment had actually succeeded and that the economy was in better shape as a result.

So the dollar kind of rode that rally and now I think it's starting to surrender those ill-gotten gains. The dollar is on pace for its worst year since 1985. We just finished the month of August, a down month for the US Dollar. It's been down six months in a row and so the weakness in the dollar is one of the reasons that the price of gold has 01:25 been rising.

The Gold Market Gold Continues to Move Higher

The gold market gold continues to move higher ever since breaking out about $1,300. The price of gold is now above $1340 so we've tacked out another 40 dollars. 

I don't think the shorts have covered yet. I think they're still holding and hoping I don't think we've had the long's getting too excited about this breakout above $1,300 it may need $1,400 we need to move up a whole new handle before we really get the big short covering. (SPDR Gold Trust ETF (GLD), Market Vectors Gold Miners ETF (GDX), Market Vectors Junior Gold Miners ETF (GDXJ))

Gold: $1,300 Is Now Support

Gold to me still looks pretty strong. We broke out above $1,300, we didn't have a huge surge but we held 1,300 and we didn't go back below it. We've held here all week and to me 1,300 is now the support right what used to be resistance is now support. Where is the next resistance? I would guess up around 1375-ish which I think was about the high last summer. (SPDR Gold Trust ETF (GLD), Market Vectors Gold Miners ETF (GDX), Market Vectors Junior Gold Miners ETF (GDXJ), Barrick Gold (ABX), Newmont Mining (NEM))

Video: Gold Outlook

Peter Schiff talks gold and precious metals.

Gold & Gold Stocks (Market Vectors Gold Miners ETF (GDX), Market Vectors Junior Gold Miners ETF (GDXJ), SPDR Gold Trust ETF (GLD), Newmont Mining (NEM), Goldcorp (GG), Barrick Gold (ABX))

I think now that we have cleared out that $1,300 resistance there are a lot of people that thought there was no upside in gold, well they're about to find out just how much upside there was.  I think of course even bigger moves are coming in the gold stocks. (Market Vectors Gold Miners ETF (GDX), Market Vectors Junior Gold Miners ETF (GDXJ), SPDR Gold Trust ETF (GLD), Newmont Mining (NEM), Goldcorp (GG), Barrick Gold (ABX))

Gold Goes Through 1,300 USD

We've been flirting with that $1,300 level all year, I've been talking about all the resistance that was up there and every time the price of gold got near $1,300 it was met with tremendous amounts of selling. There was a lot of supply but as I've been saying the demand was building, this was a coiled spring we continued to see more and more buying beneath the market and the channel was narrowing the distance between the $1,300 resistance and the support kept getting narrower and narrower and I said I was looking at it and I thought it was only a matter of time before we exhausted all that supply and broke through that $1,300 level,  both a psychological level and a level with a tremendous amount of selling. We finally did it!

Foreign Stocks Are Very Cheap Relative to US Stocks

If you want to invest in stocks do what I'm doing. Invest internationally, invest in foreign stocks. The valuation gap is enormous you've never had foreign stocks so cheap relative to two US stocks. (iShares MSCI Emerging Markets Index ETF (EEM), SPDR S&P 500 Index ETF (SPY), Nasdaq 100 Index ETF (QQQ))

Video: Copper versus Gold

Peter Schiff discusses investing in Copper versus investing in Gold.

The Big Story in the Market: Continued Weakness in the US Dollar

Let me get to what's been going on in in the market. The big story in the market is the continued weakness in the US dollar.

Remember the Dollar Index rose about 6% between the election of Donald Trump and the inauguration day. The reason for the rally was the optimism surrounding all the economic growth that we were going to get as a result of tax cuts, deregulation, all this stuff that was going to happen. 

 Of course all this was also going to result in a tighter Federal Reserve because we were now going to have fiscal stimulus and so we weren't going to need as much monetary stimulus. Now remember at the time I argued that that was nonsense and of course so far I'm being vindicated because here we are were six months into the Trump presidency and nothing has happened.

Video: An Interview With Peter Schiff

"When I started buying gold in 2001 it was under $300 an ounce, it rose as high as 1900 USD/ounce by 2011. I started buying oil when it was at $20 a barrel or less and went up to 150 dollars a barrel."

Gold: A Short Squeeze Is Coming

Given the weakness in the US Dollar and the weak economic data, Gold should be moving up a lot more than it is. I still think that there's still a lot of overhang there's still a lot of short selling going on but I smell the mother of all short squeezes coming. (SPDR Gold Trust ETF (GLD), Market Vectors Junior Gold Miners ETF (GDXJ), Market Vectors Gold Miners ETF (GDX))

Markets: Australian Dollar, Canadian Dollar, Foreign Stocks

The Australian dollar (AUD) is very close to a two-year high it's at more than a one-year high as is the Canadian dollar (CAD) which was very strong on the week on the back of a rate increase by the Bank of Canada but the US dollar fell across the board, obviously foreign stocks better than US stocks given the tailwind that they have from appreciating currencies.

Economic Data Continues To Come Out Weaker Than Expected

Economic data continues to come out on balance weaker-than-expected. The Atlanta Fed today notching down its estimate for the second quarter GDP to 2.6 percent. This is the lowest the Atlanta Fed has been since they've been making forecasts on the second quarter. I assume that they're going to continue to ratchet that bar lower and lower as more economic data comes out.

Some People Are Trying to Keep the Price of Gold From Rising

Every time gold is about to breakout someone comes in and sells a tremendous amount of it all at one time. So, obviuosly there are some headwinds, some people are trying to keep the price of gold from rising for whatever reason but they will not be successful long term. Gold are going to rise as the US Dollar weakens. (Market Vectors Gold Miners ETF (GDX), Market Vectors Junior Gold Miners ETF (GDXJ), SPDR Gold Trust ETF (GLD), Newmont Mining (NEM), Barrick Gold (ABX), Goldcorp (GG))

The Euro Is Not My Favorite Currency

 The Euro is not my favorite currency. I do think that there are other currencies that are ultimately going to enjoy even bigger gains against the US Dollar than the Euro which means those other currencies will also be gaining against the Euro but you have so much short interest in the Euro so many people betting on the demise of the eurozone and look I still believe that the euro zone is going to fall apart it's just not going to fall apart as soon as a lot of people thought. 

Euro Currency: This Move Is Just Beginning

The US dollar we're now trading just below 1.1450, remember wasn't too long ago the euro was down around 1.05 or so and everybody was talking parity with the dollar, all the traders were short the euro and I was saying that the euro was bottoming, that the euro is going to rise and the rise is just now beginning and I think there's a lot more to this move, of course other currencies are also following the euro's lead.

The Euro Is Surging Against The US Dollar

The US dollar continued its decline, the dollar index falling to a fresh eight-month low. The dollar is being led lower by a surging euro. The euro is actually at a 12-month high against the US dollar. 

Draghi Sends Euro Higher, US Dollar Lower

The US Dollar was down sharply and broadly led lower by a rally in the euro currency. The catalyst for the euro rise were some statements by Mario Draghi early in the morning basically where he said that he thought the downward pressures on inflation were transitory so a somewhat hawkish stance on inflation and the markets took that to mean that QE will come to an end sooner rather than later.

Gold: Putting In A Significant Bottom

I think the significant thing though for the US Dollar and gold is that the dollar is in the process of putting in a very significant top and the flip side of that is that gold is in the process of putting in a significant bottom. I think the catalysts for breakdowns in the dollar and breakouts in gold is going to be some realization, some capitulation on the part of the markets, the Federal Reserve to square perception with reality because you know the economic surprise index is at the lowest that span since 2011. People have been looking forward to good news and they've been disappointed constantly. (SPDR Gold Trust ETF (GLD), iShares Silver ETF (SLV), Market Vectors Gold Miners ETF (GDX))

Gold: The Opposite of a Bubble

Gold, I think is getting ready again for a move in the opposite direction (higher) but you have the opposite of a bubble in gold. Certainly if you look at the United States, Americans are buying less gold now than they've done you know since the bull market began in 1999-2000. (SPDR Gold Trust ETF (GLD), Newmont Mining (NEM), Barrick Gold (ABX), Goldcorp (GG), Market Vectors Gold Miners ETF (GDX), Market Vectors Junior Gold Miners ETF (GDXJ))

When Markets Are As Extended, They Can Top On Anything

We had a bit of a turnaround Tuesday today all of the major US stock market averages were higher in the morning and we closed broadly lower on the day. In fact the Dow Jones Industrials Average (DJIA) did make a new all-time record high this morning before closing down about 60 points so though the decline in the Nasdaq was a little bit greater. We had a 0.82% decline in the Nasdaq, the Dow was only down by about 0.3%. The S&P 500 Index though had a bigger decline as it was down about 0.7%, so the broader averages took a bigger decline than did the Dow.

Now, I don't think the technical damage is extreme. Yes, we made new highs and close lower but it really wasn't an outside day, I mean we didn't close below Monday's lows for example which would have been an outside reversal but we'll see. You know, when markets are as extended as they are, of course, you know, they can top on anything.

Investing: How To Profit From The Trump Train Wreck

Peter Schiff speaks in Vancouver at the International Metal Writers Conference on how to profit from the Trump train wreck. (Market Vectors Gold Miners ETF (GDX), SPDR Gold Trust ETF (GLD))

Housing Starts Declining, Trouble Ahead?

We had an unexpected big drop in housing starts. This is the third month in a row that the starts are down but not only where housing starts way down but building permits were also way down so that means that this trend is likely to continue. The last time we had three consecutive monthly declines it was in 2009. What was going on in 2009? Oh, the greatest recession since the Great Depression! (KB Home (NYSE:KBH), Lennar Corporation (LEN), SPDR S&P Homebuilders (ETF) (XHB), D.R. Horton (DHI))

A Hawkish Federal Reserve

We actually got a hawkish hike not only did the Federal Reserve raise rates but they did nothing to dampen expectations for future interest rate hikes. In fact Janet Yellen in her prepared remarks and in the press conference that followed was very upbeat, very optimistic on the economy not worried about anything and no longer talking about the need for some kind of confirmation that prior economic weakness was transitory. She thinks that it's clear skies as far as the eye can see.

Big Reversal In Bitcoin

It wasn't just the stock market that had big reversals I guess it was the crypto currencies as well particularly Bitcoin. You know, I mentioned the last couple of times that I was talking about Bitcoin and the kryptos, the shrinking market share that Bitcoin had in the crypto world and that continues right now. The market cap of Bitcoin is now down to about 40 percent of the total market cap of all the crypto currencies.

Gold Stocks: Performing Much Better

Gold stocks continued to trade much better than they have been, I mentioned that on my last podcast even though gold was down 11 dollars on the day, gold stocks were down but not that much, down just a little bit. (Newmont Mining (NEM), Barrick Gold (ABX), Market Vectors Gold Miners ETF (GDX), Market Vectors Junior Gold Miners ETF (GDXJ), Goldcorp (GG))

Market Vectors Junior Gold Miners ETF (GDXJ) Has Some Catching Up To Do

The smaller gold miners if you look at the  Market Vectors Junior Gold Miners ETF (GDXJ) which is an index of junior gold mining stocks,  I I think this thing still has to move up 30 percent or so to get back to where it was when gold was lower than it is right now earlier this year.

Gold Hits A New High For The Year

The price of gold has been creeping higher and higher ever since it had that correction and by the way I think I did a pretty good job of nailing the correction, the fact that I said it would be a very shallow correction and I'm pretty sure that I nailed the the bottom. I came on and I did a podcast when it looked to me like the gold stocks were confirming an end of the correction in gold and gold did rally and initially gold stocks rallied to but then the gold stocks came back down and almost retested their lows, didn't quite do it. But the price of gold never came back down, the price of gold kept rising and rising and now finally yesterday the price of gold hit a new high for the year. (Market Vectors Gold Miners ETF (GDX), Market Vectors Junior Gold Miners ETF (GDXJ), SPDR Gold Trust ETF (GLD))

Currency Markets: Monetary Policy Divergence (EUR/USD)

I think that even if the Federal Reserve hikes again in a couple of weeks they're nearing the end of their tightening cycle and you know even though the Federal Reserve claimed to be data dependent and they hike interest rates despite the fact that the data was much weaker than they thought, I think the markets are starting to look beyond the hikes to the cuts. I think we're getting ready to start a new easing cycle and on the other side of the Atlantic the ECB is getting ready to end their easing cycle and to begin tightening so I think the currency markets are more looking at that policy divergence than whether or not Trump is going to get any anything through Congress.

Gold & Gold Stocks Will Move Higher

When the Federal Reserve raises rates in June, if they raise rates in June, Gold is going to take off. If they don't raise interest rates in June then it's going to explode even higher and of course you know you're going to see an even bigger move in the gold stocks. (Market Vectors Gold Miners ETF (GDX), Market Vectors Junior Gold Miners ETF (GDXJ), SPDR Gold Trust ETF (GLD))

Bitcoin Is A Speculative Asset, A Bubble

I don't think something like Bitcoin is ever going to succeed at being money. It's not going to be used as a medium of exchange as a store of value but what it is now is a speculative asset. People are buying it, it's appreciating and the people that own it on paper are making money and some of them are actually cashing out and making real money but the majority of the paper wealth that's been accumulated is still sitting there. But you do have people that are coming in and buying at these high prices. Ultimately the bubble is going to pop and the things are going to come crashing down, the question is how much bigger is this bubble going to get? Have we already seen the peak or is this going to be the biggest bubble of all time?

The U.S. Dollar Index May Drop To 60

The U.S. Dollar Index closed at a new low for the year solidly below 97.00.  We closed at 96.67, I think the key level is 92 which is the low from May of last year but once we break through that and I think there'll be some support around that level, but once we break through 92 we're making room for 80 and that is a pretty big drop. I think that can happen in a short period of time. 

Probably, of course, 80.00 is not the bottom because 70 was the low in summer of 2008 but then you know the dollar got Saved by the Bell by the financial crisis. Ain't going to happen again the next crisis is the US Dollar so we're going to take out 70.00, we're going to go to 60.00 and then we are below 60.00 I think is when we're going to have a crisis. Now who knows where gold is going to be by then, I think gold (SPDR Gold Trust ETF (GLD)) is going to be much much higher.

The Trump Trade Unraveled A Bit

The Trump trade unraveled a bit. Remember early in the Trump trade you had a strong dollar the US Dollar has surrendered a hundred percent of its gains post Trump's election and so year-to-date even though the S&P 500 Index is up, priced in gold the S&P 500 Index is actually down. And if you compare the US stock market to other stock markets around the world the US stock market is one of the worst performing markets in the world so it doesn't sound like the Trump trade is working it sounds like the trades that are working are buying gold and buying foreign stocks. (SPDR Gold Trust ETF (GLD), SPDR S&P 500 Index ETF (SPY), iShares MSCI Emerging Markets Index ETF (EEM))

Gold Stocks: Investors Are Not Believing In The Gold Rally

Gold (SPDR Gold Trust ETF (GLD)) continues to rise. It was up again today (yesterday). This is the highest gold has been since, I think, mid April we got above 1270.00 intraday, and we closed just a hair below it. 

But continuing the trend gold stocks were down. I think that Market Vectors Gold Miners ETF (GDX) was barely positive today (yesterday), the Market Vectors Junior Gold Miners ETF (GDXJ)  was down again. 

So gold stocks continued to trade weak in the face of rising gold prices and again what this has been telling me because this has been going on now for quite some time, is that the investors do not believe this rally because if they believed it they would be bidding up gold stocks.

We Have A Reverse Bubble In Gold

Big banks simply pursue their own self-interest and certainly Wall Street does not want the price of gold going up they want the price of stocks going up, they want the price of bonds going up that's where they generate all their fees so they have a vested interest in being negative gold. 

But it's also a kind of a self-perpetuating prophecy if they keep selling into the rallies and you have so much gold that trades in paper markets where it's not real, you have people buying gold from people who don't even have it and they're selling gold they don't own to people who don't want it but you have this huge paper market and there's a lot of selling pressure there. 

But I think ultimately the price of gold is going way up and the fact that maybe it's suppressed maybe it's intentional maybe it's just a result of people pursuing what they think is right but all bubbles are like that. You had bubbles in the dot-coms, you had bubbles in the housing market. 

This is almost like a reverse bubble in gold. We have a bubble in fiat currencies, we have a bubble in the US Dollar and when that bubble pops, those currencies are going to crash and you're going to see the collapse in the price of gold because the price of gold rising will be the collapse of the fiat currencies.

Trump: Tariffs On German Cars?

If they're going to slap tariffs on cars made by Germans it's because the government is trying to say we want a different outcome than the outcome that the free market is determining. In the free market Americans are choosing to buy these German cars, we don't want them to make that choice we want to alter the free market by artificially raising the cost of buying a German car relative to the cost of buying a different car. And now we have a different outcome not the outcome that would be determined by the free market but the outcome that is determined as a result of government intervention. (General Motors (GM), Ford (F), Tesla Motors (TSLA), BMW)

Markets: US Dollar, Gold and Interest Rates

If the Federal Reserve doesn't raise interest rates in June it is going to shock the markets. In fact I think the US Dollar is poised to decline even if the Federal Reserve raises interest rates. I think gold (SPDR Gold Trust ETF (GLD)) is poised to rise even if the Federal Reserve raises interest rates but if it doesn't obviously those moves will be even bigger because the markets are completely prepared for a another hike.

U.S. Economy: Recent Weakness Likely To Persist

The economic data that has come out recently including this week has been pretty bad on balance in fact the data that we're getting confirms to me that rather than being transitory the weakness in the first quarter is likely to continue.

Markets: Gold, Silver, US Stocks

So far in 2017 the S&P 500 Index (SPDR S&P 500 Index ETF (SPY)) is up just under 7 percent but the price of gold (SPDR Gold Trust ETF (GLD)) and silver (iShares Silver ETF (SLV)) are up about 7.5%

Now despite the fact that both precious metals and the US stock market have performed about the same thus far in 2017, Americans are rushing to buy US stocks yet they're completely ignoring precious metals. This despite the fact that the Dow Jones Industrials (DJIA) or the S&P 500 Index (SPDR S&P 500 Index ETF (SPY)) is at an all-time record high and the valuations are clearly in bubbled territory. Yet when it comes to gold and silver even though they're doing well this year, gold prices are about 30 percent below their peak price in 2011 and silver is better than 60 percent below its peak price. 

So despite the fact that gold and silver are outperforming the S&P 500 Index (SPDR S&P 500 Index ETF (SPY)) this year they have a much further way to go to get back to their highs.

US Dollar: The Decline Has Just Begun

The US Dollar continues its losing streak. The US Dollar Index was down for the 8th time in nine days. The US Dollar Index actually traded below 97 for the first time since Donald Trump was elected President, so we have wiped out 100 percent of the ill-gotten dollar gains that were racked up in the wake of that victory. and if you remember when the dollar was rallying as a result of the Trump victory I said it was a sucker's rally that it was a head-fake rally and sure enough that's exactly what it was but the US Dollar decline has only just begun.

SALT Conference: Gundlach on Stocks

His conclusion was that the US stocks are very expensive and that people should sell US stocks and invest in foreign stocks. In particular Gundlach likes the emerging markets. He was also very bearish on the dollar saying the same kind of stuff as me saying that the crowd is wrong, that this is a crowded trade (that the US Dollar is going to go up) because the Federal Reserve raising rates is wrong.

Markets: Trump Scandal, A Crash In Brazil

So this should rattle confidence as should the drop in the stock market if it continues. But despite that this drop is not very large, I mean look at what's happening in Brazil.  The Brazilian market is getting obliterated, it's crashed, I mean you got a lot of these Brazilian stocks today are down 10 to 20 percent based on a political scandal in Brazil where they they have a recording of the president of Brazil offering a bribe and they've got that on audio recording. 

The market is crashing because they're calling for resignation or impeachment there now of course it's the same problem here although I guess they've got a better case against the Brazilian president.

This shows you what can actually happen with a market that's smaller when everybody wants to get through the same door at the same time, the liquidity is not there and prices collapse.

The same thing could eventually happen to the United States but of course if we had a drop today like they're experiencing the Brazil the Federal Reserve would be out there, they would be cutting rates they would be telegraphic QE4 they would be doing whatever they could to try to reverse the decline in the market. (SPDR S&P 500 Index ETF (SPY), SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF (DIA), Nasdaq 100 Index ETF (QQQ), iShares MSCI Brazil Index (ETF) (EWZ))

Video: Retail Stocks Bloodbath

The retail bloodbath. Retails stocks have been hit hard recently. (Kohl's Corp (NYSE:KSS), Nordstrom Inc. (NYSE:JWN), Macy's Inc (NYSE:M))

Stocks: The Retail Apocalypse (JCP, JWN, KSS, M)

Let me get into what I want to talk about. First of all it's the retail apocalypse which I have been talking about that from my perspective and not just my perspective, I think in reality the retail sector is in worse shape worse shape today than it was in 2008 during and immediately following the financial crisis.

And you know we got a lot of bad news from the retailers this week including J. C. Penney Inc (NYSE:JCP),  and Nordstrom, Inc. (NYSE:JWN) horrible sales from these companies and we had other retailers earlier in the week that came out with with bad news as Kohl's Corp (NYSE:KSS) department store.

If you look at some of the stocks like Kohl's Corp (NYSE:KSS),  trading at $36.50 - that stock was at $75-80 in the summer of 2015, so it's down 60 percent or so.

Dillard's which is at a 52 week low at just under $47 that was over a $120 more than a 50% decline.

Macy's Inc (NYSE:M) was down another 3 percent today, a new 52 week low. Macy's Inc (NYSE:M) is at 23.60 and Macy's Inc (NYSE:M) was like a $70 stock in the summer of 2015.

These are huge markdowns for these retailers.

Gold: Holding On To Some Key Support

The last time I was talking I thought gold looked really good short-term on the chart,  I thought it looked like it was going to go up to 1300. Instead it went the opposite way, it went down towards 1200. Well it didn't get that low, it's just below 1220.

But you know it shows you that you know technical analysis doesn't always work. You know you're not just going to automatically get rich because you're looking at a chart. I thought the weak economic data would be a catalyst for gold. We got the weak economic data but gold went down anyway.

Now, it still looks like it's holding on to some key support. Gold is still doing well this year it's still beating the US stock market considerably this year as is just about every other market in the world I mean the out performance that I've been talking about so far this year between foreign develop markets and especially emerging markets is widening continuing to gain on the US market. (Market Vectors Gold Miners ETF (GDX), SPDR Gold Trust ETF (GLD), Market Vectors Junior Gold Miners ETF (GDXJ), Newmont Mining (NEM), Barrick Gold (ABX))

The U.S. Economy Will Not Grow At 3% This Year.

Wilbur Ross came out this week and admitted that the US GDP is not going to grow at 3 percent this year I mean that's why they pay this guy the big bucks right I mean you don't need to have that much information you know to be that's smart to figure out something that's that obvious but they finally admitted that the economy is not going to grow by 3 percent this year in fact it may even be in a recession this year so it's not only not going to grow by 3 percent it may not grow at all.

The Markets Are Beginning To Look Beyond These Rate Hikes

The dollar market is acting much different than the the gold market rather than rising the dollar has been falling. Normally you get some strength of the US Dollar when the probability of an interest rate hike rises because after all higher rates everybody thinks that's bullish for the dollar and so as the probability of a rate hike increases so too does the value of the dollar but that didn't happen this time in fact the dollar closed the day at about a six-month low in the dollar index.

I think what's happening is the markets are beginning to look beyond these rate hikes to see the next rate cut understanding that the Fed is not going to come close to delivering the type of tightening that it had been indicating was coming that we are not going to normalize interest rates.

Federal Reserve: Raising Rates Into A Recession

It's quite possible that the Federal Reserve does raise interest rates in June even if it ends up that it turns out in hindsight that they raised rates in a recession. (SPDR S&P 500 Index ETF (SPY), SPDR Gold Trust ETF (GLD))

Gold Will Rally Before The Fed Raises Rates

I think the gold price is going to rise well before the Fed gets around to raising rates in June if in fact they raise rates. (SPDR Gold Trust ETF (GLD), Gold Futures, Market Vectors Gold Miners ETF (GDX), Market Vectors Junior Gold Miners ETF (GDXJ))

Why Is The Fed Willing To Keep Raising Rates?

One of the reasons this might be the case is because the Federal Reserve is more concerned about having some ammunition to fight the next recession rather than simply postponing the onset, meaning that they want to get interest rates further above zero before the recession officially begins so that once it's here they have more room to cut interest rates.

But also I think another reason that the Fed has been more willing to raise interest rates has to do with the action in the US stock market. I thought that the Federal Reserve would be reluctant to raise interest rates for fear of how the higher rates might impact the stock market but it seems like the stock market has found another prop and is no longer simply relying on cheap money. It's now also relying on hope and optimism surrounding the election of Donald Trump and the idea that somehow he is going to make America great again which includes making the stock market great again with deregulation and tax cuts and all sorts of economic stimulus.

So I think because of this the Fed may feel that it doesn't have to provide as much support because the stock market is rallying in the face of these rate hikes.

The Fed Will Raise Rates Again in June

Following Friday's slightly better than expected non-farm payroll report the probability of a June interest rate hike is now near one hundred percent. The markets are now certain that a quarter point hike is coming in June and in fact if the Federal Reserve does raise interest rates by a quarter point that will bring the floor of the official rate finally up to 1 percent. (SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF (DIA), SPDR S&P 500 Index ETF (SPY), Nasdaq 100 Index ETF (QQQ), iShares Russell 2000 Index ETF (IWM))

Currencies: U.S. Dollar Index May Drop To 60

The U.S. Dollar can fall rather substantially from here. The last time the Dollar Index fell, it bottomed out around 70. So, I think this time it might fall as low as 60 before anybody really gets nervous. 

The Bullish Case For The Euro Currency

I think the European Central Bank (ECB) is going to move to a tightening rhetoric, to a tightening bias and they may even start to raise interest rates given how quickly the inflation rate is accelarating in Europe!

Monetary Policy: Fed Will Ease, ECB May Tighten!

The U.S. Economy (GDP) is breaking down as European inflation is breaking out. The Federal Reserve easing monetary policy and European Central Bank tightening monetary policy is not the policy divergence markets expect! (EuroStoxx 50 Index, Dax Index, CAC 40 Index, SPDR S&P 500 Index ETF (SPY), SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF (DIA))

Weakest Economic Growth in 3 Years!

First quarter GDP growth was the the weakest in 3 years for the first quarter. Why is GDP growth so weak? Well, one reason is because the Federal Reserve raised interest rates even though they barely raised them. Imagine how deep of a recession we would have if the Federal Reserve had delivered the 3 or 4 interest rate hikes in 2016!

Bearish On The U.S. Bond Market

This time as the U.S. Dollar goes down, it is eventually going to take the bond market down with it. But right now, we have another rally in the bond market, interest rates are falling because people are starting to worry about the weakening U.S. Economy. (iShares Barclays 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT), ProShares UltraShort Lehman 20+ Year ETF (TBT), 10- year U.S. Treasuries)

Trump Has Not Changed Anything Yet

It's business as usual. Obamacare is here to stay, we are not replacing it, we are not even replacing Janet Yellen, it seems that he is ready to renominate her, we are dropping bombs in the Middle East, so what has changed? Nothing.

Money: Gold, Crypto-Currencies

I do not like any of these crypto-currencies. It does not mean that they cannot go up if people are willing to buy them. It`s not money because it has no value other than its use as a medium of exchange. You need to have intrinsic value. Gold has intrinsic value, it has real physical properties that have been desired for thousands of years. Gold became money because of how valuable it was! (SPDR Gold Trust ETF (GLD))

The Economy Is Extremely Weak

The economy is extremely weak. That is why Trump is the President. We are dangerously close to an official recession, I think unofficially we have been in a recession for a long time. (SPDR S&P 500 Index ETF (SPY), SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF (DIA))

Nothing Has Really Changed With Trump

It's business as usual. Obamacare is here to stay, we are not replacing it, we are not even replacing Janet Yellen, it seems that he is ready to renominate her, we are dropping bombs in the Middle East, so what has changed? Nothing.

U.S. Dollar & Bond Market: Going Down

This time as the U.S. Dollar goes down, it is eventually going to take the bond market down with it. But right now, we have another rally in the bond market, interest rates are falling because people are starting to worry about the weakening U.S. Economy.

An Economic Recession Is Looming

We are very, very close to a recession, if not already in a recession.

Gold Stocks: Big Upside Potential

I think at this point I would just be buying these gold stocks because I think that gold traders are just being too timid and they do not appreciate the explosive nature of the rally that I think is in the immediate future in the price of gold. (Newmont Mining (NEM), Barrick Gold (ABX), NovaGold (NG), Market Vectors Gold Miners ETF (GDX), Market Vectors Junior Gold Miners ETF (GDXJ))

Gold Stocks: Climbing A Very Steep Wall Of Worry

The reason these gold stocks are not moving higher is because we are climbing a very steep wall of worry. Because there is not a lot of conviction in the gold traders, they still do not get it. They still think that the interest rate hikes are bullish for the U.S. Dollar and bearish for gold. (Newmont Mining (NEM), Barrick Gold (ABX), Goldcorp (GG), NovaGold (NG), Market Vectors Gold Miners ETF (GDX), Market Vectors Junior Gold Miners ETF (GDXJ))

Gold: The Correction Is Over

I think the correction in the price of gold is over but I do think there is some psychological resistance around this 1,300 level but we are going to blow through it and have a quick march up to 1,350. (SPDR Gold Trust ETF (GLD), Market Vectors Gold Miners ETF (GDX))

The U.S. Dollar Is Overvalued

I believe Donald Trump is correct. The U.S. Dollar is overvalued but he is wrong in his view of how the overpriced U.S. Dollar impacts the U.S. Economy. Because the dollar is overvalued we have an artificially high standard of living and when the dollar starts declining is going to take the American standard of living down with it!

Trump Rally, Recession

We are not getting the Obamacare repeal, we are not getting the comprehensive tax reform, I mean we are not getting anything and still the stock market has not surrounded any of the gains from the Trump rally that was based on the expectation of a bunch of things that will not happen. What is going to happen is a recession! (SPDR S&P 500 Index ETF (SPY), SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF (DIA), Nasdaq 100 Index ETF (QQQ), iShares Russell 2000 Index ETF (IWM))

Trump Rally Was Based On Things That Aren't Materializing

We had this huge stock market rally based on repealing Obamacare, that did not happen, based on comprehensive tax reform and that did not happen either! (SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF (DIA), SPDR S&P 500 Index ETF (SPY), Nasdaq 100 Index ETF (QQQ))

Geopolitical Uncertainty Is Bullish For Gold

In uncertain times, investors and traders are drawn to the gold market. The precious metal proves it once again as the price of gold rose after the United States launched an attack on a Syrian airbase. (SPDR Gold Trust ETF (GLD), Market Vectors Gold Miners ETF (GDX), Market Vectors Junior Gold Miners ETF (GDXJ))

The Dollar’s Demise

The Dollar’s demise may make it almost impossible for any other currency to fill that role of world reserve currency. I think what’s more likely is we go back to gold being the primary monetary reserve. (SPDR Gold Trust ETF (GLD))

The Federal Reserve Is Actively Engaged in a Propaganda

Right now, I think the Federal Reserve is actively engaged in a propaganda effort to try to convince everybody that the economy is stronger than it is by raising interest rates even though the economic growth forecasts are collapsing. (Select Sector Financial Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLF), SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF (DIA), SPDR S&P 500 Index ETF (SPY), Nasdaq 100 Index ETF (QQQ))

The Correlation Between Stocks & The Dollar

If we look at the correlation right now, the U.S. Dollar is starting to trade with the stock market, meaning that when the stock market is up, the U.S. Dollar is up, and when the stock market is down, the U.S. Dollar is going down.

Worst Time To Buy U.S. Stocks!

This is the worst time to be buying U.S. stocks.

(Select Sector Financial Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLF), SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF (DIA), SPDR S&P 500 Index ETF (SPY), Nasdaq 100 Index ETF (QQQ), iShares Russell 2000 Index ETF (IWM))

Stock Market: The Big, Fat, Ugly Bubble

When Donald Trump run for office he called the stock market a big, fat, ugly bubble. Well, it is certainly bigger, fatter and uglier now. (iShares Russell 2000 Index ETF (IWM), SPDR S&P 500 Index ETF (SPY), SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF (DIA), Nasdaq 100 Index ETF (QQQ), Select Sector Financial Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLF))

Gold Will Likely Take Out Resistance At $1,260

Gold closed above $1250, we have resistance at $1260. I think we will take it out. (Gold Futures, SPDR Gold Trust ETF (GLD), Market Vectors Gold Miners ETF (GDX), Market Vectors Junior Gold Miners ETF (GDXJ))

Obamacare Is Going To End, One Way Or Another

Obamacare is going to end, one way or another. (Health Care SPDR ETF (XLV), UnitedHealth Group (UNH))

Trump Agenda: No Comprehensive Tax Reform

I don't think we are going to have any kind of comprehensive tax reform. I think that it would be very productive but I also think it should happen in a context of major reductions in government spending.

A Bullish Catalyst For The Price Of Gold

What I think it's going to really accelerate the price of gold going up is the fact that interest rates are not going up nearly as much as the market anticipates. (SPDR Gold Trust ETF (GLD), Market Vectors Gold Miners ETF (GDX), Market Vectors Junior Gold Miners ETF (GDXJ))

The US Economy Is A Mess!

The economy is a mess! Atlanta Fed is now looking for 1.2 percent first quarter GDP growth. It was looking at 3.4 percent growth on February 1st. We are dangerously close to an economic recession.

U.S. Economy: Department Store Sales Are Collapsing!

Look at what it's happening to Department Stores sales. Department Stores sales are collapsing, this is the worst decline since the 2008 financial crisis. They are falling off the edge of a cliff. (Macy's Inc (NYSE:M), J C Penney Company Inc (NYSE:JCP),  Nordstrom, Inc. (NYSE:JWN), Ross Stores, Inc.(NASDAQ:ROST))

U.S. Economy, Crude Oil Prices and Interest Rates

We are dangerously close to an economic recession in America. Gasoline demand is down and the is why oil prices are going lower. The interest rate hike is going to make the problem worse. (Energy Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLE), Select Sector Financial Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLF), SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF (DIA), SPDR S&P 500 Index ETF (SPY), United States Oil Fund LP ETF (USO), Nymex Crude Oil Futures)

Will This Rate Hike Prick The Stock Market Bubble?

This is a gigantic bubble and it has gotten bigger since we elected Trump. Will this next interest rate hike prick the bubble? There is a chance. Eventually the air is going to come out of this bubble. (Select Sector Financial Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLF), SPDR S&P 500 Index ETF (SPY), SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF (DIA), iShares Russell 2000 Index ETF (IWM), Nasdaq 100 Index ETF (QQQ))

Healthcare Reform Is Going To Be a Disaster

The Republicans on Capitol Hill with the blessing of President Donald Trump are trying to repeal one big healthcare program and replace it with another big government entitlement. It is not going to work, it is going to be another disaster just wrapped up in a different package. (UnitedHealth Group (UNH), iShares NASDAQ Biotechnology Index ETF (IBB), Health Care SPDR ETF (XLV))

The Real Reason Why Yellen Will Raise Interest Rates

I think the reason the Federal Reserve feels confident to raise interest rates is because the Dow Jones Industrials Average (DJIA) is trading at 21,000. That's why. Just like it felt confident to raise interest rates the first time, in December of 2015 because the markets were giving a false signal that the hike was OK but of course after the rates were hiked the market rallied and then it dumped. We had the worst January in the history of the stock market. (SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF (DIA), SPDR S&P 500 Index ETF (SPY))

A Fed Interest Rate Hike Is Coming Up

According to Goldman Sachs (GS), the odds of a Federal Reserve interest rate hike coming up at the March meeting which is less than two weeks away is now 95 percent. (SPDR S&P 500 Index ETF (SPY), SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF (DIA), iShares Russell 2000 Index ETF (IWM), Nasdaq 100 Index ETF (QQQ))

Trump Wants To Make The Government Bigger, Not Smaller!

If we want to strengthen the economy we have to liberate it from the shackles of government. We have to weaken the government  to strenghten the economy. We need a much smaller government. But that is not what Donald Trump wants. Trump spent most of his speech talking about ways to make the government bigger! (SPDR S&P 500 Index ETF (SPY), SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF (DIA), Nasdaq 100 Index ETF (QQQ))

Bitcoin: Too Volatile For Being Considered As Money

The volatility of Bitcoin is too great on a daily basis to price in it. It is a speculative asset, people own  Bitcoins because they think it will be more valuable in the future.

Bitcoin Is Not Money, It's a Speculative Asset!

Bitcoin is not digital gold, it is digital fools gold. Today's Bitcoins can be tomorrow's Bitty babies. The whole principal behind Bitcoin was to replicate the properties that made gold uniquely suited to be money, act as an alternative to fiat currencies but it is not really viable as money, it is a potential medium of exchange but it is not a store of value. Meanwhile nobody really uses it as a medium of exchange, it is a speculative asset, people own it because they think it will be more valuable in the future but it has no intrinsic value of itself.

A Gold Correction Will Be A Great Buying Opportunity

An interesting observation, gold stocks were down on Friday, they were also down on Thursday, in fact they had a sell-off at the very end of the day. I think the last 2 percent rise in the price of gold we had about a 4 percent drop in gold prices. Now, gold stocks rose early on and they did a very good job of forecasting this gold rally. So, the question is, are gold stocks now actively forecasting a sell-off, a profit taking or a correction in the gold rally? That is possible and if that is the case that is going to be a great buying opportunity because I do not think the correction will be very long lived or that deep and I do expect much higher prices later in the year. (SPDR Gold Trust ETF (GLD), Market Vectors Gold Miners ETF (GDX), Market Vectors Junior Gold Miners ETF (GDXJ))

Gold Is Still Trending Up

The price of gold was up again last week, got as high as 1,260 dollars an ounce. On my last podcast I said gold was building a lot of resistance at 1,240 and that when we took it out we would see a bit of a jump and that is exactly what happened.

Greenspan Expects Stagflation, Bullish On Gold Prices

Alan Greenspan is very bullish on the price of gold. He talked favorably about the price of gold. Yet the one thing that Greenspan still does not want to do is to accept any responsibilities. He does not want to accept the blame for all the bad things that he now thinks are coming. (SPDR Gold Trust ETF (GLD), Market Vectors Gold Miners ETF (GDX), Market Vectors Junior Gold Miners ETF (GDXJ))

The Stock Market Is Going Way Down In Gold Terms

A good way to measure the stock market is in terms of gold. Let's say right now the Dow jones Industrials Average (DJIA) is worth about sixteen ounces of gold. Let's say the stock market gets cut in half, them it is worth eight ounces of gold or the stock market stays the same and gold prices double from here, it's worth eight ounces of gold too. The stock market in terms of gold is going way down! I think it's going a lot lower than eight. (SPDR Gold Trust ETF (GLD), SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF (DIA))

U.S. Economy: We Have To Allow This Economy To Restructure

We need to let interest rates go up, we need to let the chips fall where they may. If we do that now after interest ratings having been so low for so long we are going t have a financial crisis worse than 2008. But at this point we all just have to suck it up and bear it. And if that means a lot of people losing money, banks failing, and a lot of people lose their jobs, that is what is has to happen! 

We have to clean the house. We have to allow this economy to restructure so that we can rebuild it the right way and not rebuild it based on government central planning but let the free markets rebuild it. This was what made America great in the first place.

Inflation Has Already Surpassed Yellen's Target

Year over year CPI (consumer Price Index) is now up 2.50%. That is the official number, obviously prices are going up a lot faster than that. But according to the government they are going up at 2.50%. If you take out food and energy and just look at the core, year over year changes 2.30%. 

Remember the Federal Reserve says their target is 2%. And when Yellen testified this week she said she was confident that we are going to hit it. Well, we are already surpassing it! (SPDR Gold Trust ETF (GLD), iShares Silver ETF (SLV), Market Vectors Gold Miners ETF (GDX), Market Vectors Junior Gold Miners ETF (GDXJ))

The Federal Reserve Knows Another Crisis Is Coming

The reason the Federal Reserve has acted so slowly in increasing interest rates is because they know another crisis is coming and they just hope they do not get blamed for it. (SPDR S&P 500 Index ETF (SPY), SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF (DIA), iShares Russell 2000 Index ETF (IWM))

The Largest Debtor Nation in the History of the World!

The accumulating effects of the annual current account deficits is that we are the largest debtor nation in the history of the world. We owe more money to other countries than all other debtor nations combined.

Markets: Gold Miners, Australian Dollar

The Market Vectors Junior Gold Miners ETF (GDXJ), an index of junior gold miners it is up 33 percent this year! And meanwhile the U.S. Dollar is starting to go down, it`s not down that much against the Euro but look at the Australian Dollar for example, it is up 6 percent so far this year against the U.S. Dollar. 

Traders Are Overlooking The Contractionist Impact Of Rising Rates

I think traders are overlooking the contractionist impact of rising interest rates. Not necessarily just the interest rate increases by the Federal Reserve but look at what is happening to the long end of the bond market since Trump was elected. Even though there was a big reaction in the stock market at the end of last year, so far in 2017, the Dow Jones Industrials Average (DJIA) is not making much in the way of gains. (SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF (DIA), SPDR S&P 500 Index ETF (SPY))

U.S. Stock Market or the U.S. Dollar: One Is Going To Crash!

The fact that Donald Trump is the President does not change it from an asset bubble to a bull market! 

It`s still a bubble and the air is going to come out one way or another. Either the U.S. stock market is going to crash or the U.S. Dollar is going to crash. But either way, the real value of stocks is coming way down and people should not own them. 

(SPDR S&P 500 Index ETF (SPY), iShares Russell 2000 Index ETF (IWM), SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF (DIA), Nasdaq 100 Index ETF (QQQ), Apple (AAPL), Facebook (FB), Tesla Motors (TSLA), Netflix (NFLX))

U.S. Stocks Are Very Expensive

The fact that the Dow Jones Industrials Average is at 20,000, that does not reflect a healthy economy, it reflects a bubble! U.S. stocks are very expensive. Candidate Trump has it right when he called it a big, fat, ugly bubble an it is bigger, fatter and uglier now! (SPDR S&P 500 Index ETF (SPY), SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF (DIA), iShares Russell 2000 Index ETF (IWM), Nasdaq 100 Index ETF (QQQ))

Markets: U.S. Dollar, Gold and the U.S. Stock Market

It was the weakest January for the U.S. Dollar in 30 years! Gold prices are rising, commodity prices are rising and for all the hype about Dow 20,000, the U.S. stock market is pretty much the worst performing stock market in the world so far in 2017. if you adjust for currencies. (SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF (DIA), Nasdaq 100 Index ETF (QQQ), SPDR S&P 500 Index ETF (SPY), iShares Russell 2000 Index ETF (IWM), SPDR Gold Trust ETF (GLD))

The Bullish Case For The Euro Currency

We know that the Bundesbank does not approve the easy money policies, the QE, the negative interest rates that Draghi and the ECB have forced upon them and I believe that rising German opposition as well as rising inflation both in Germany and throughout the European Union will ultimately force the ECB to abandon this monetary policy maybe even at the same time that the Federal Reserve is finally coming to terms or admitting that they are about to ease monetary policy again, they will be cutting interest rates and doing QE4.

Federal Reserve: Will They Raise in March? Probably Not!

The Federal Reserve has been saying that we will have three interest rate hikes in 2017. They have to get started if we are going to have three. People thought the Federal Reserve was going to say something to indicate that maybe it would be in March. They made no such comment. (SPDR Gold Trust ETF (GLD), SPDR S&P 500 Index ETF (SPY))

The U.S. Debt Bomb Is About To Explode

The U.S. debt bomb is going to explode. What the Federal Reserve has been doing, by keeping interest rates practically at zero has prevent the bomb from exploding. With interest rates at practically at zero we could afford to service the debt, repaying it is impossible! But at least we could service it when interest rates were at rock bottom. But that is already changing. Interest rates are going up, inflation is going up and creditors are going to demand a higher premium to hold our bonds. We are headed off the edge of a cliff! (iShares Barclays 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT), 10- year U.S. Treasuries)

Trump Desires a Weaker U.S. Dollar

It is almost like Trump is already adopting a weak U.S. Dollar policy because saying that the Euro currency is too weak is saying that the U.S. Dollar is too strong. If you want the Euro currency to go up then you want the U.S. Dollar to go down. If you wan the Japanese Yen to go up, you want the U.S. Dollar to go down. So, the President wants a weaker U.S. Dollar.

U.S. Dollar: The Worst January in 20 Years!

Everybody on Wall Street started the year long the U.S. Dollar. Well, I just read that this was the worst January for the U.S. Dollar in almost 20 years! And for all the fanfare and hype about Dow 20,000 - I think the Dow Jones Industrials Index (DJIA) was up just half of a percent in the month of January. (SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF (DIA), SPDR S&P 500 Index ETF (SPY), Nasdaq 100 Index ETF (QQQ), iShares Russell 2000 Index ETF (IWM))

The Debt Bomb is About to Explode in the U.S.

The debt bomb is going to explode in the United States. Artificially low interest rates helped keeping U.S. debt and interest payments contained but it cannot be contained for much longer because long term interest rates and inflation are rising and on such a scenario creditors will keep demanding higher premiums. (iShares Barclays 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT), ProShares UltraShort Lehman 20+ Year ETF (TBT), 10- year U.S. Treasuries, 30-year U.S. Government Bonds)

Forex: Commodity Currencies (AUD, CAD)

The Australian Dollar (AUD) has been trading even firmer than the Canadian Dollar (CAD). The Australian Dollar (AUD) bottomed out in January 2016, so commodities (Gold, Crude Oil) bottomed and commodity currencies also bottomed.

Trump: Short Term Fix Will Not Result

If we are really going to make America great again, if we really are going to fix what is broken, we have to go through a restructuring of the economy. That in the short term is going to be painful. On the long run it will produce good results. Trump is promising a quick fix, that things are going to get better just because we have elected him. Unfortunately that cannot happen. (SPDR S&P 500 Index ETF (SPY), iShares FTSE/Xinhua China 25 Index (ETF)(NYSEARCA:FXI))

The Stock Market is Very Vulnerable Here

I think to the extent that we get some of these protectionist type measure it is negative for the U.S. Dollar. It is not going to be a positive like some people think and the stock market and the bond market are very, very vulnerable here. (SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF (DIA), SPDR S&P 500 Index ETF (SPY), Nasdaq 100 Index ETF (QQQ), iShares Russell 2000 Index ETF (IWM))