The Economy Was Never Strong

Commentators keep asking why the Federal Reserve can't raise rates if the economy is so strong?

They still don't realize that the economy was never strong. They confuse a bubble for strength. Without zero percent interest rates and QE the bubble can't survive. But a return to those policies kills the US dollar!

So-Called Experts Are Still Optimistic About The US Economy

You have to go back to the summer of 2008 to see so many so-called experts so optimistic about the U.S. economy and so dismissive of overwhelming evidence that their optimism is unwarranted.

Related trading instruments: Sector Financial Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLF), SPDR S&P 500 Index ETF (SPY), Nasdaq 100 Index ETF (QQQ), SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF (DIA)

Stat: National Debt

A cool stat: "Between Christmas 2017 and Christmas 2018, the US government added a staggering $1,370,760,684,441.54 to the national debt."

If The Fed Comes To Rescue, Gold Will Rally

What people don’t understand is how much worse the economy is going to become once the Federal Reserve comes to the rescue. Gold is going to go through the roof.

Related trading instruments: SPDR Gold Trust ETF (GLD), Market Vectors Gold Miners ETF (GDX)

Podcast: The Market Was Expecting More From The Fed

Peter Schiff dissects the latest move from the Federal Reserve and its future implications for the markets.

"The selloff from the high to the low was just under 900 points. Earlier in the day the Dow had rallied up about 300 points because there was a lot of anticipation that even though the Fed was going to hike rates today, that it would indicate it would pause."

Related trading instruments: Select Sector Financial Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLF), SPDR S&P 500 Index ETF (SPY), Nasdaq 100 Index ETF (QQQ);

Markets: Russell 2000 Index Is Leading The Market Lower

Highlights from the most recent podcast (December 14th):

Peter cited the current weakness on the Russell 2000 Index and how it is leading the market lower:

"In fact, the weakest indexes continue to be the Russell 2000 - I've been talking about the weakness in the small caps. That index is now down better than 19% from its peak just about 4 months ago. So we're almost officially in bear market territory. We'll probably be there by Monday, judging by the technicals." 

Peter also mentioned the Dow Jones Transports as another index that is already trading at its lowest levels of the year:

"The other index that is leading the way down is the Dow Jones Transports. This index is now down better than 18% from its peak. Both the Transports and the Russell 2000 are at the lowest levels of the year."

Peter Schiff will be live on Fox Business News on Monday on the show "The Countdown to the Closing Bell" to discuss current market events. 

Federal Reserve: New Rounds Of QE Will Cause Stagflation

If we are going into recession and if the Federal Reserve is going to go back to the Quantitative Easing (QE) well and takes interest rates back to zero, the U.S. dollar is going to tank and the inflation fire is going to heat up and it’s going to be stagflation.

The Most Expensive Christmas Tree In Europe

Munich-based gold dealer Pro Aurum made the Christmas tree out of gold coins. They've dubbed it "the most expensive Christmas tree in Europe. With it being valued at $2.6 million, I don't doubt them.

"The “tree” stands 3 meters tall and weighs in at 63 kilograms of pure gold. That translates to 138.891 pounds – approximately. It features 2,018 solid gold one-ounce Vienna Philharmonic coins, topped by a massive 20-ounce coin, placed into a golden star." - in Schiff Gold

Nouriel Roubini On Crypto and Blockchain

"Expect 1000s of crypto & blockchain ventures to go bankrupt. Almost all were total vaporware: they had no goods, services, products, software, apps. They stole the money & run. Crooks!" 

- Nouriel Roubini, Twitter (December 10th, 2018)

Ethereum Has Lost Better Than 90 Percent Of Its Peak Value

Ethereum, the third largest crypto currency by market cap, just broke below 100 dollars per coin. Having trading near 1400 dollars per coin in January of this year.

Ethereum has lost better than 90 percent of its peak value. But it can easily drop by another 90 percent to return to its January 2017 price!

Real Estate Prices Are About To Drop

Now, I think with the stock market finally starting to go down, real estate prices are about to drop. They haven't fallen yet but if you look at supply, the supply is swelling of unsold homes that nobody is buying and that's exactly what happened in 2006, 2007. Before the prices went down the supply went up because people who have houses on the market they're kind of reluctant to drop their prices. They don't want to recognize where the reality is so the houses just sit on the market unsold. We have the biggest glut of unsold homes, new homes since 2007.

Markets: Gold Is Going Ballistic

A recent article from Mr. Schiff on how gold can go much higher from current levels: Peter Schiff: When Everything Blows, Gold Is Going Ballistic

Federal Reserve: Unwinding The Balance Sheet

The balance sheet is still north of four trillion so they've tapered it a little bit ,I think a couple hundred billion. Interest rates are rising and the Federal Reserve still has an enormous balance sheet and according to what they've been saying they're about to start increasing the monthly draw and and that is gonna put even more pressure on the bond market especially since we are printing record budget deficits.

We're now borrowing over a hundred billion a month and the official numbers don't even capture that because so much of the budget is off budget. But it doesn't matter, they still have to issue the bonds to finance the off budget spending.

So what's important is how much the national debt is going up, how much bonds are actually being sold and so we've got record budget deficits and now we've got the Federal Reserve that wants to sell and the bigger problem is who's buying?

The Next Round Of QE Will Send Gold To New All-Time Highs

Everybody thinks quantitative easing is over what they don't realize is it's barely begun the next round is gonna be bigger than the first three and that's really what's gonna send gold to new highs.

Related trading tickers:

• SPDR Gold Trust ETF (GLD)
• Market Vectors Gold Miners ETF (GDX), 
• Market Vectors Junior Gold Miners ETF (GDXJ)
• Newmont Mining (NEM)
• Barrick Gold (ABX)
• Kinross Gold Corporation (USA) (NYSE:KGC)

Why Investors Are Wrong About Gold

Gold has really been an asset that has been under owned for many years. I think you have too many people that are convinced that the central banks know what they're doing and that they've solved all of our problems and that there's no inflation, that there's nothing to worry about and therefore there's no reason to own gold. Gold is just a piece of metal and why own it right, it doesn't throw off any income? But of course people are completely wrong.

Stock Market: This Is A Bubble Deflating

Peter Schiff comments on the current situation in the US stock market.

This Is A Bear Market

I've been calling for a bear market and I think this is a bear market and if we get a rally that will be the correction because the primary trend is now down. This is early in this bear market, it's very young and unfortunately it's going to be very long-lived.

I think this is going to be similar if not worse than the bear market that went from 1966 to 1982. It took 16 years for the Dow to make a new high and during that time period inflation took about 70 percent away from the Dow's value. This time I think it's going to be worse.

Apple (AAPL) Now in a Bear Market

"But there was some other particularly bad news that came in before the opening bell, and that one was from Apple (AAPL). They said they will be cutting production because of lower sales. That decision trickles down, effecting a lot of companies who count on those orders from Apple (AAPL). The price of Apple (AAPL) is down by 4% on the day. But if you now look at the total drop - just over 20% - and that means the way Wall Street scores it, Apple is now in a bear market." 

- excerpt from the Peter Schiff Show, Episode 415, The Confidence Bubble Has Popped

In The Short Run Gold & Silver Are Going Way Up

I don't think that (price manipulation) is the primary reason that the price of gold and silver have been going down. I don't think it's just manipulation. I think people just are completely clueless with respect to what's actually going on in the world. They don't understand the US economy, they do not  understand the Federal Reserve but they're about to get a rude awakening and the smart money is buying gold whether it's being manipulated or not in the short run both and silver are both going way up in the long run and the long run may be here much sooner than people think.

Smart Money Is Buying Precious Metals

Bitcoin: Capitulation Is A Long Way Off

If you think Bitcoin falling to $5,200 constitutes capitulation, think again. Very few, if any HODLers have actually thrown in the towel.

Capitulation is a long way off and will come at much lower prices and with far less fanfare, as CNBC will have long since abandon coverage!

Stock Market: Many Sectors Already In Bear Market Territory

The retailers are all gonna be in a bear market relatively soon, some of them of course already are. They're just blown up left and right but if these key sectors are going into bear markets like the financials then what is the odds that the entire market doesn't go into a bear market? 

This is a case of absolute and complete denial.

(audio excerpt from the Peter Schiff Podcast, Ep. 413: Investors Oblivious as Multiple Bubbles Pop)

Goldman Sachs (GS) In Bear Market Territory. Other Financials Will Follow

Look at the financials. Goldman Sachs (GS) is now down about 27 percent from its high so it is officially in a bear market.

(If Goldman) it's in a bear market what are the odds that the rest of the sector isn't gonna follow the lead of Goldman Sachs (GS)? I would say pretty slim. So, clearly the financials are gonna be in a bear market (and) they're gonna join other sectors that are already in a bear market like housing.

(audio excerpt from the Peter Schiff Podcast, Ep. 413: Investors Oblivious as Multiple Bubbles Pop) 

Apple (AAPL) Stock Is In Bear Market Territory

Look at some of the big stocks that are selling off. Apple (AAPL) down again today down 2.7 percent on the day but now Apple is finally in a bear market. It's now down better than 20 percent from the highs - so what's the odds that now that Apple is in a bear market that the rest of the market isn't going to follow?

Weakness On Housing Stocks

The biggest canary (just another one of those dead canaries that these miners are ignoring) is what's going on in the housing stocks. We got more bad news on housing this week you got no warning going forward from DR Horton I think the stock was down 10 percent.

Stock Market: The Gains From The Midterms Rally Will Be Surrendered

I thought that relief rally was just another dead cat bounce that the fundamentals and the technicals still looked horrible for the US stock market I expected that rally to reverse and of course that process has already begun Thursday and Friday I think it will continue next week and I think the rest of those gains will be surrendered.

Real Estate: The Entire Market Is Going To Blow Up

I think that mortgage applications are going to go a lot lower. I think the entire market is pretty much gonna blow up and a good example of what's coming was the earnings that came out today from Zillow.

Zillow stock was down almost 27% on the day it actually closed just below $30 a share. The high this year was $65.70 so obviously the price of Zillow has been more than cut in half since this summer and I remember specifically on this podcast criticizing a move that Zillow made that is partially responsible for the plunging stock price.

What Zillow decided to do was actually go into the business of flipping real estate. They were not just gonna provide a platform for people to list their homes and for realtors to prospect for clients and all that, they actually were gonna get into the housing market by buying houses themselves and then listing them for sale. So, basically kind of like market making in homes, trying to pick up bargains and then sell their own houses on Zillow rather than simply act as a middleman. And I said this was a very risky move for Zillow to be making at a very bad time when you had the housing market topping, when you had mortgage rates rising.

I said this was a huge mistake, an indicative of a top and that is exactly what's happening. In fact if you look at their earnings, Zillow has bought a lot more houses than they've been able to sell so they now have a huge inventory of houses that they own, that they're trying to unload and of course they're not going to be able to do it because the buyers are just not there.

This Is Going To Be A Protracted Bear Market

This is going to be a protracted bear market like the one we had from 1966 to 1982 with 16 years without a new stock market high.The cost of living back then went up dramatically, and it’s going to rise even more dramatically during this secular bear market.

A Bubble Economy, A Brutal Recession & Interest Rates

Peter Schiff was active this week commenting the recent action in the markets. Here's a snapshot of the most interesting articles:

Peter Schiff: The Truth Is We Don't Have A Booming Economy; We Have A Bubble

Peter Schiff: The Recession That's Coming Is Going To Be Brutal (Video) 

Stock market will collapse with Fed raising interest rates: Peter Schiff (in Fox Business)

$5000 Gold Prices Could Be In Our Very Near Future

General Electric (GE) Is Less Valuable When It Can't Pay A Dividend

General Electric (GE) closed at $10.10 down 8 cents and it made a new multi-year low. It's the first time it's been below ten dollars in 8 or 9 years. The reason that GE got clobbered by 9 percent yesterday was because they had announced the evening before that they were eliminating their dividend and so obviously GE is a lot less valuable when it can't pay a dividend.

This Rally Is A Correction In A Bear Market

The fact that there is no fear to me shows that it's more likely that this is not the end of the correction but the beginning of the bear market and that this rally is the correction. In bull markets, the market going down is a correction because the trend is still positive, still up - well, in a bear market it's the opposite the rallies are the corrections.

The Biggest Decline In A Month For The Nasdaq Since 2008

The US stock markets closed higher today for the second consecutive day for the first time in the month of October and a lot of traders are probably happy that the month of October is over. Despite the back-to-back rally this is still the biggest decline in a month for the Nasdaq since 2008!

The Next Time The Fed Lowers Rates To Zero, The Dollar Will Collapse

President Trump claims that if he had zero percent interest rates the "strong" U.S. economy would be even stronger. He should be careful what he wishes for, as the next time the Fed lowers rates to zero, the dollar will collapse, taking the bond market and the economy down with it!

This Bear Market Is Not Going To End Quickly

Peter Schiff on Fox Business (Oct 29, 2018)

"The Federal Reserve should raise interest rates but the markets will collapse as a result. This bear market is not going to end quickly like the one in 1987. This will be a protracted bear market like the one we had from 1966 to 1982."

Nasdaq: Worst Monthly Decline Since The Financial Crisis

We still have three trading days left in the month of October and the Nasdaq is on pace to its worst monthly decline since the 2008 financial crisis and yet everybody thinks there's no problem!

Stock Market: The Downtrend Is Intact

Some of the highlights from the Peter Schiff Podcast, ep. 402.

Peter mentioned that the Russell 2000 Index is already in correction territory,

"The Russell 2000 is actually down about 14 percent from its highs so it's now officially in a correction."

Peter also mentioned that yesterday's rally had all the characteristics of a short covering rally and that the down trend in stocks in very likely still intact,

"To me this looked like a classic reversal Tuesday type of rally, one of the reversal Tuesday's where you gap way down and then just rally throughout the day The rally did not produce a positive close so it was not a technically significant rally. In fact, I think the downtrend is intact. To me, it looked like a lot of short-covering was going."

Financials are an example of weakness in the U.S. stock market,

"If you look at the financials for example all those stocks continued to go down closing in the red rallied off the lows but no substantial rallies."

The Box That The Federal Reserve Has Placed Itself In

That's exactly the choice that the Federal Reserve is going to have to make. Next time they're going to have to raise interest rates into a weak economy. 

In fact, they're gonna have to raise interest rates into a financial crisis, into a depression and if they don't do it we're gonna have something even worse, we're going to have hyperinflation. 

That is the box that unfortunately the Federal Reserve has placed itself in based on years and years of this monetary policy.

Stock Market: What's Happened Thus Far During The Month

Look at what's happened thus far during the month of October, which I had been warning on my podcast, looked like there could be a weak October given where we were in the market, given how ridiculous the sentiment was in the face of overwhelming evidence that the economy was in fact weakening.

If you look at the numbers the Dow Jones Industrials Average (DJIA) is down 3.8 percent so far on the month. That's the best performing of the averages. The S&P 500 Index is down about 4.7 percent on the month, the Nasdaq Composite is down 7.4 percent, the DJ Transports down 8.3 percent and the Russell 2000 shows a 9.2 percent decline.

September Existing Home Sales Plunged The Most In 2 Years

September existing home sales plunged the most in 2 years, extending the streak of consecutive monthly declines to six. Homebuilding stocks are hitting 52-week lows, registering their worst year since 2008. If housing is this bad during the boom, imagine what happens after the bust!

Bear Market Rallies Try To Create A False Sense Of Confidence

Corrections or bear markets have rallies. So, maybe this 500-point move up in the Dow Jones Industrials Average (DJIA) is the first upward correction in the new bear market. 

There's no way to say that we have not entered a bear market. It's possible that it will be a bear market, you can't call it a bear market now even though maybe 25% of the stocks are in bear market territory. The majority are not but it's only a question of time. There are a lot of stocks that are down quite a bit but just not enough to be a bear market. 

But remember some of the most spectacular moves that you're gonna see to the upside in a market happen in bear markets. Historically the biggest up days have been in bear markets and that is to try to create a false sense of confidence a false sense of hope.

A Bear Market And A Recession

More important that a bear market it's a recession. I mean this is a bubble not just in the stock market but in the entire economy! So, the Federal Reserve has distorted more than just markets and the problem is this recession is going to be far more painful and far deeper than the one that we had  in 2008/09 because it's also going to be accompanied by rising consumer prices. I think as Americans lose their jobs they're gonna see the cost of living going up rather dramatically and so this is going to make it particularly painful.

What Happens Next In 47 Words

1. Bear market;

2. Recession;

3. Deficits explode;

4. Return of ZIRP and QE;

5. Dollar tanks;

6. Gold soars;

7. CPI spikes;

8. Long-term rates rise;

9. Federal Reserve is forced to hike rates during recession

10. A financial crisis without stimulus or bailouts!

The Recession Is Obviously Coming

Recent article on Seeking Alpha.com: "Peter Schiff: The Recession Is Obviously Coming"

All Bear Markets Start Off As Corrections

“All bear markets start off as corrections. I think this one is probably a bear market. It’s long overdue. This is a bigger bubble than the one that blew up in 2008, and the crisis that is going to ensue is going to be far larger.” - in RT.com

It's Not Trump's Trade Policies That Are Going To Cause The Crash

It's not Trump's trade policies that are going to cause the crash, the crash was happening anyway. In fact Donald Trump gave a speech today and he said that when he was elected President or before he was elected the economy was on a verge of a collapse and he was right. But now it's on the verge of an even bigger collapse because all Donald Trump did was blow more air into Obama's bubble or more accurately the Federal Reserve's bubble.

Video: Rising Rates Crash Stocks

Peter Schiff was recently on RT.com to explain the recent turmoil in the U.S. stock market.

Video: Market Selloff (FOX Business)

Peter Schiff’s recent appearance on Fox Business to talk about the recent market turmoil: "Like all sequels, the next financial crisis will be worse." - Peter Schiff

The Price of Gold Finally Woke Up

"The real standout today in the market was gold right the price of gold finally woke up or traders woke up and noticed how cheap gold is and it rose by about $30 today back over 1220."

- Peter Schiff, Ep. 399: "Gold Breaks Out, Bitcoin Breaks Down" of the Peter Schiff Podcast

Stocks: A True Bear Market

"Everything is going down and so now I think the stealth bear market that started earlier in the year is now becoming a true bear market. Of course, nobody thinks so. Everybody that I'm listening to is talking that it's just a correction in a bull market."

- Peter Schiff, Ep. 399: "Gold Breaks Out, Bitcoin Breaks Down" of the Peter Schiff Podcast

Markets: Stocks & Bonds

"If we get stocks going up then interest rates are gonna go back up which is gonna scare the market."

- Peter Schiff, Ep. 399: "Gold Breaks Out, Bitcoin Breaks Down" of the Peter Schiff Podcast

It's Not A Normal Bull Market Correction

Everybody is talking about how this is just a normal correction in a normal bull market. Well, first of all there's nothing normal about this bull market, right? This bull market is already the longest bull market ever. So based on duration it ain't normal. Also based on all the stimulus that was required to create it, all the quantitative easing, the years of 0% interest rates, there is nothing normal about this bull market. If anything it's a bubble, it's not just a bull market and of course if it's not a normal bull market then why would it have a normal correction, right?

My Feeling About The Stock Market Was Confirmed

My feeling about the stock market was confirmed today with a 831 point drop in the Dow Jones Industrial Average down 3.15%. This is the biggest decline that the Dow has had since that 1000-plus point drop that we had in February. I think it's maybe the third biggest down day ever point-wise.

Week Stocks Beneath The Surface

If you look at some of the sectors that continue to get beat up making new 52 week lows so even though the headlines are probably gonna be about the Dow Jones Industrials Average (DJIA) making another all-time record high, beneath the surface are a lot of stocks that are having a lot of problems.

Italy Is Putting Pressure On The Euro Currency

The Italian market is under a lot of pressure because the Italian government is running deficits that exceed the two percent guidelines imposed by the Eurozone. I think they're proposed new budget deficit is 2.4 percent of Italian GDP and so this is putting pressure on Italy which is all so putting pressure on the euro currency.

We've Had Some Substantial Stock Market Declines In October

We have had some substantial stock market declines in October. Obviously, not every October has a big drop, in fact, most of the October's don't but some of the most notable declines have incurred in the month of October including the crash of 1987 and the crash of 1929. But given that our valuations are probably higher now than they were at those prior peaks you would think that there'd be more concern right now about the possibility of another October surprise in the way of a major decline in the stock market.

U.S. Economy: Soft Landing or Crash Landing?

It's not like the Fed is gonna finally see a small reaction to one rate hike that will enable them to quickly reverse course and engineer this soft landing that everybody likes to talk about. The minute there is a problem from the rate hikes it's gonna be a crash landing. There's going to be no opportunity to try to soft land this thing because as soon as it goes down it's going to come crashing down even if the Fed immediately goes from whatever they've raised rates to, to zero and launches another round of quantitative easing it's not going to be in time to stop the damage.

Federal Reserve: The Removal of the Word "Accommodative"

The only thing that was significant or potentially significant about this interest rate hike was the removal of the word accommodative by the Federal Reserve in their official statement to describe the current state of monetary conditions or monetary policy.

Now, I initially thought that was a significant removal of a word obviously the Federal Reserve thinks very carefully about the written statements and so if they chose to remove a word that was there and they know that people parsed through these words with a microscope and so the fact that the word was missing and obviously it's missing by intention it wasn't just an accident that they're trying to send a message and what I first thought the message was and I still believe that was the Federal Reserve views a two percent interest rate as neither accommodative or restrictive but maybe neutral. The Federal Reserve now believes that interest rates are high enough that they would no longer be described as accommodative.

Treasury Yields: The Chart Looks Ominous

Look at the bond market, yields on the 10-year and on the 30-year were up again today. We haven't completely broken down yet but to me the chart looks ominous I mean there is the potential for a big break in the bond market: drop in price, up in yield above 3.50% in the 10-year maybe above 4.00% in the 30-year in the short run.

Trump, The Stock Market, & The Mid-Term Elections

Donald Trump said that if the Democrats get voted, the stock market gonna get cut in half. So, that is a pretty bold statement to say that, "the stock market is worth twice as much with me as President as it would be worth if the Democrats got in power" now, I don't know if he was referring to the Democrats taking control of the White House in 2020 or taking control of the Congress later this year.

I mean maybe the President is pre-blaming a future sell-off in the stock market on the Democrats taking control of Congress. I wouldn't put it past him if we start to see the markets selling off later in the year and the Democrats do take control even if it's only the house and the market tanks I bet that the President will say, "You see, if the Republicans had retained control of Congress then the market would still be going up."

The Trade War Continues To Escalate

This trade war continues to escalate and people still think that we're going to win and they still believe that there is some type of method to the madness in that all of these tariffs are simply a down payment on a future where all the tariffs are gone right where the goal here is free trade it's just that in order to get to free trade we have to make trade less free first.

Europe Wants The Euro To Become The World's Reserve Currency

European Commission President Jean-Claude Juncker just this week said publicly that their plan, their hope is that the Euro becomes a reserve currency that rivals the US dollar because Europe is tired of being depended on the US Dollar. 

In fact, he specifically mentioned the fact that 90 plus percent of European payments for oil are made in dollars he says, "Why is this? Why are we buying oil from Russia and paying in US dollars? It makes no sense!" And so Europe wants to wean itself from dollar dependence.

Currency Markets: ECB is Hawkish, The Fed Is A Dove

The European Central Bank (ECB) is saying "we're gonna keep inflation under 2 percent no matter what" and so to me they're taking opposite positions: the ECB is tighter and the hawkish bank and the Federal Reserve is a dove and therefore the Euro currency (EUR) on that basis alone is going to be stronger than the US Dollar (USD).

How The Federal Reserve Is Thinking About Inflation Right Now

The Federal Reserve is saying that they're gonna err on letting inflation break out, that they are fine with symmetrical inflation around 2 percent.

Podcast: The Next Economic Hurricane Will Be a Category 5

Podcast: The next economic hurricane will be a category 5

Ford (F), General Motors (GM) Trading At 52-Week Lows

The auto industry is suffering. I mentioned just a minute ago about how many Americans have to borrow to buy cars and that's one of the reasons that both General Motors (GM) and Ford (F) are again hitting new 52 week lows. 

Ford (F) is trading close to  an eight or nine year low or something like that. But General Motors (GM) is again at a new 52-week low as both of these stocks are venturing further into bear market territory.

Crude Oil: $80/Barrel By The End Of The Year

Crude oil is getting more expensive again. The chart to me looks very, very strong. I still think we have a shot of 80 dollars a barrel crude before the end of the year and then north of a 80 dollars a barrel next year especially when the US Dollar rolls over. If you think about how strong crude oil prices are today with the US Dollar strong, imagine how much stronger oil prices will be tomorrow when the US Dollar is weak.

10-Year Treasury Yields Can Explode Higher At Any Time

Interest rates are going up, in fact the yield on the 10-year Treasury today was up I think 40 basis points to 2.98 percent. So, we're almost at 3 percent right now in the 10-year. The chart though to me looks like we can explode higher up to three and a half four percent almost any time.

The Last Time We Had A Trade Deficit This Big...

The last time we had a trade deficit this big was 2008 which of course was right before the financial crisis and Great Recession and it probably is no coincidence that were having such large trade deficits again probably on the eve of what will be an even greater economic recession than the one that we had in 2008.

The Bear Market Can Start At Any Minute

In a recent tweet, Peter Schiff drew a parallel between the current market and the tech bear market that started in 2000:

"The Nasdaq had the biggest gain last month since the year 2000. But do you recall what happened in 2000? The Nasdaq – it declined approximately 80 percent from peak to trough."

When asked when the bear market would start, peter Schiff replied:

"It’s long overdue. It can start at any minute … But people are oblivious.”

Related trading instruments: Nasdaq 100 Futures, Nasdaq 100 Index ETF (QQQ)

We Will Have Inflation And Recession At The Same Time

In a recent podcast, Peter Schiff warned us that we should be prepared for inflation and recession to his us in the face and at the same time.

Read the complete article here: https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2018-08-29/peter-schiff-we-will-have-inflation-and-recession-same-time

Markets: Currency Crisis

If countries with current account deficits are experiencing a currency crisis, how long before the nation with the world's largest current account deficit experiences one too? 

What's worse is that while other nations borrow to fund capital investment, the U.S. borrows to consume!

Are US Treasuries A Good Investment Right Now?

Peter Schiff recently asked this question on a SchiffGold column: "Are US Treasuries a good investment right now?"

Read Peter's detailed answer here: Peter Schiff: U.S. Treasuries Are A 'Lousy Deal'

Markets: New Highs, Fed Narrative

Video: The Hawkish Federal Reserve Narrative Is Slowly Changing

Topics:

- US stock markets trading at all-time highs;
- The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) is just shy of a new record high;
- The catalyst for the stock market rally: a changing Fed narrative;
- The Federal Reserve does not think that inflation will break out;
- Traders are starting to price in less tightening from the Federal Reserve;
- Pending Home Sales unexpected drop;

Powell Is Going To Let The Inflation Genie Out Of The Bottle

Peter Schiff explains the long term ramifications of the dovish speech by the Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell:

Peter Schiff: The Fed Is Going To Let The Inflation Genie Out Of The Bottle

Hedge Funds Are Net Short Gold

The catalyst for the rise in gold and the decline in the US Dollar I believe was the dovish speech given by Jerome Powell in Jackson Hole. (...) Remember we've got a lot of people who are short gold. Now for the first time since 2001 the hedge funds are net short gold and I think they can get caught in a losing trade and have to scramble to buy back the gold that they sold.

A New Crisis Is Coming

We’re seeing a lot of warning signs people should be worried about, but again they’re dismissing them, much the way they did 10 years ago. You know, we’re getting close to the 10-year anniversary of the 2008 financial crisis. Remember, the whole thing started in August of 2008. Here we are August 2018, 10 years later. I think we’re heading for an even bigger crisis and the same people are even more clueless.

We Are Headed Into a Massive Recession

We are headed into a massive recession. Trump bought the economy some time with the tax cuts but all it's doing is pushing off the day of reckoning. - Peter Schiff on Fox Business

Trump Criticizes The Federal Reserve

He's been critical of the Federal Reserve for having raised rates. One of the things President Trump said apparently was that when he nominated Powell he had expected him to be a easier money guy. That he nominated him thinking that he wouldn't have all these interest rate hikes and so he's disappointed that his nominee is not being as easy when it comes to monetary policy as what he had hoped when he appointed him.

The Weak Dollar Policy

It should be obvious that Donald Trump has a weak dollar policy whether he wants to name it a weak dollar policy or not.

The Next Recession

It's not that the inversion of the yield curve causes the recession. It's that's that long rates start to fall as investors start to look beyond the expansion to the next recession and they start pricing in the next round of rate cuts.

So it's not that the inversion causes the recession it simply is a good indicator that a recession is coming so you don't need an inverted yield curve to get a recession and we're gonna have a recession this time without the yield curve inverting given how little headway the Federal Reserve was able to make in normalizing interest rates.

The Catalyst For The US Dollar Drop

The catalyst today for the US Dollar sharp reversal was more tweets from President Trump where he is expressing anger not only at the Federal Reserve right or not only at the ECB and at the Bank of China because he is accusing both Europe and China of being currency manipulators of taking advantage of us by weakening their currencies.

This was probably one of the biggest down days for the US Dollar this year - across the board weakness which is likely to continue. Believe me we're gonna have days that are gonna be much much weaker than this, I believe later in the year and of course next year and the year after that I think the dollar is gonna get particularly beaten up. 

U.S. Dollar: Forex Market Intervention Ahead?

Given Trump's accusations against Europe and China regarding currency manipulation I would not be surprised if the Treasury intervenes in forex markets to drive the dollar lower. The dollar's demise will happen on its own anyway, so intervention will only accelerate the process.

Gold, Gold Stocks and Inflation

The price of gold is falling, this is the new low for the price of gold this year. Gold stocks are continuing to hold up very well in the face of the decline in the price of gold. Gold stocks are not making a new low for the year at least not yet and though they are down today they are not down nearly as much as you would assume with a 10-12 dollar drop in the price of gold. 

I still think that traders have this wrong. They're still looking at the the trade war as somehow being dollar positive. It's dollar negative. That is impacting gold. 

They are dismissing the increasing inflation numbers that we're getting as transitory because they think the Fed is gonna hike rates more to fight the inflation which is going to be good for the US Dollar and bad for Gold. 

The reality is they're not gonna fight the inflation they're gonna surrender. Inflation is going to win because if they fight inflation they cause the worst financial crisis since 2008 and they don't want to do that.

The Economy Is Going To Fall Into a Severe Recession

Peter Schiff: "I think the economy is going to fall into a severe recession."

Markets: Interest Rates, Federal Reserve

The Federal Reserve is raising interest rates and the higher rates are going to be problematic even more so now than they were back then because we have a lot more debt. But I don't think they will succeed in raising rates as high as they did before. I think the tipping point is going to come much lower if it hasn't already come.

I do think that they're gonna abort these interest rate hikes much sooner than people think. Potentially they could use the trade war and it's unexpected negative effect on the economy as the excuse to do what they were gonna do anyway, which is  to call the whole cycle off and start cutting interest rates again and going back to quantitative easing. That's where we're headed.

The Perfect Excuse For The Federal Reserve

What's gonna happen as a result of the tariffs in the trade war and again this is a perfect excuse for the Federal Reserve I mean this is like a gift from heaven because now when the Federal Reserve has to cut interest rates, the Federal Reserve has to do QE 4. 

They can just blame it all on the tariffs on the trade war they could say everything was great, we were going to normalize interest rates, we were going to shrink our balance sheet but Trump went and started a trade war and it unexpectedly sent us into recession. So now we've got to cut interest rates again and do QE 4. 

They were gonna do that anyway whether or not we had the trade war, whether or not we had any of these tariffs but now this gives them a perfect excuse to blame something on which they had no control.

Gold: The Last Safe Haven Standing

Even though gold has made a move down with the breakout in the dollar – or the move up in the dollar – I think that’s the last safe haven standing. I mean, once you run out of safe havens, where are your going to go? That’s where people are heading because nobody is looking there now. People don’t even think they need a safe haven. In fact, I don’t even know if money is moving based on a search for a safe haven. It’s just going where the momentum is.

Most Banks Would Fail A Stagflation Stress Test

Peter Schiff explains in this podcast why most US banks would fail a stress test in a stagflation scenario.

Markets: Trade War, Small Caps

Traders have convinced themselves that America is going to win a trade war or at least take the fewest casualties because the reason that the Russell 2000 is doing better than the Dow or the S&P; is that you don't have the multinationals. And the theory is that the domestic economy can easily weather the trade war. That it's no big deal, that trade is a small part of the US economy and so we got nothing to worry about but if you are worried well maybe worry about the multinationals that stand to lose so just focus on all these small companies that are just benefitting and basking in the glow of the greatest economy in the history of the world. If you don't believe it just ask President Trump and he will tell you. But this is all a bunch of nonsense and the nonsense continues to drive the dollar higher.

Trump Is Right About Trade

What Donald Trump is saying about trade is correct. But what he fails to mention is that eliminating the deficit means much higher consumer prices and interest rates in the United States.

So to receive the long-term gain, Americans will have to suffer through a lot of short-term pain!

Markets: This Is What Everybody Is Missing

This is what everybody is missing: there is no way that the Federal Reserve is going to be able to shrink its balance sheet. There's no way that the Treasury is going to be able to find private buyers for all this debt at interest rates that are low enough not to collapse the US economy.

Video: Gold Investment Strategies

Peter Schiff talks about gold at a mining conference in Canada.

Precious Metals: A Spike In Silver?

If global industrial growth soften or even plunge, so would lead/zinc and copper mining, which together accounted for 59 percent of silver extraction in 2017. That could also cause the price of silver to spike.

Related trading instruments: iShares Silver ETF (SLV)

The Federal Reserve Will Not Save The Stock Market Again

If the stock market gets cut in half again, the Fed is not going to bail you out with another round of quantitative easing. 

They’re not going to bail you out with rate cuts because the next time the Fed tries to do that, it will destroy the dollar. I am confident of that. The next time is the last time. We will have a dollar crisis and a sovereign debt crisis.

Banks: Deutsche Bank (DB) Could Be The Weak Link Of A Chain

Deutsche Bank (DB) could be the weak link of a chain. If you remember back to when we had the financial crisis 2008, first, you had the sub-prime mortgages blowing up, and everybody was like don’t worry about it. It’s contained. I said it’s not contained, it’s just showing up first in the sub-prime market because these are the weakest mortgages. 

I think the banking system has a huge problem because it’s lived off of the life support of artificially low interest rates. As that is removed, it’s like pulling the plug off of someone who has lived off life support. The irony is you have so many analysts that think higher rates are good for the banks...

Markets: Interest Rates Are Going Back Up

I think that we're going back up and making new highs on interest rates which of course is going to be problematic for every aspect of the economy that is in debt including you know the consumers who are taking on more debt to continue to spend because they're not earning that money.

Forex: The Consensus Is Extremely Bullish On The US Dollar

The consensus is extremely bullish now on the US dollar. it was quite bearish a few months ago and now all of a sudden everybody is bullish everybody is looking for the dollar to go up it's probably almost as strong the bullishness on the dollar and bearish this on the euro is probably almost as extreme as it was at the beginning of last year and of course that ushered in the worst the biggest decline in 14-year the dollar.

Video: The Next Financial Crisis

The National Debt Disaster

The 21 trillion dollar national debt which of course is now closer to 21.2 trillion and rising rapidly -  the problem there is not just the enormity of the debt but the cost of financing it. 

One of the things that candidate Trump promised was to take advantage of these ultra-low long-term interest rates by locking them in and moving the debt more towards long-term rates. Well, he actually did the opposite as President. He's actually shortened the maturity even shorter. We're relying even more heavily now on short-term financing than ever before. 

But as interest rates are rising the cost of servicing this debt is exploding and that is one of the principal drivers of the deficits now being over a trillion dollars a year is the extra cost of paying the interest on the money that we've already borrowed. Not the money we're borrowing now to fund the current deficit but the money we have to constantly borrow to fund the 21 trillion of debt that we already have. 

So this is not a disaster for the future this is a disaster that we're gonna be dealing with in the here and now.

The Highest The Fed Gets Is About 2.50%

If you look at what the Federal Reserve is saying, they're also talking about the fact that we're a lot closer to a neutral rate of interest than they might have felt in the past and that there's really not that many rate hikes left.

I mean maybe the markets are looking for two or three interest rate hikes this year but I think what people are now starting to think is that that may be it. I mean after this year the Federal Reserve is done hiking and so maybe the highest the Federal Reserve gets is about two and a half percent and then they're done hiking.

Stock Market: Celebrating The Cease Fire In The Trade War

Peter Schiff discusses the markets on this 30 minute podcast.

Record Foreclosures In The Subprime Auto Market

I just read an article that we're now seeing the biggest foreclosures in the subprime auto market that we've ever seen, even bigger than in the 2008 financial crisis. That is one symptom of what happened during the credit bubble and now you know the heroin is starting to wear off and it exposes all of the bad loans that fueled the spending binge on automobiles.

Video: Bond Breakdown Gathers Momentum

Video market update (May 15th, 2018)

Opportunities To Invest In Emerging Markets, Foreign Currencies and Gold

If you're an investor, it's an opportunity to invest more in emerging economies, in foreign currencies, in precious metals. Obviously the gold market is being suppressed a bit by the strength of the US Dollar but as the US Dollar surrenders those ill-gotten gains that is going to be particularly good for the gold market.

Related trading instruments:

• SPDR Gold Trust ETF (GLD)
• Market Vectors Gold Miners ETF (GDX)
• Newmont Mining (NEM)
• Barrick Gold (ABX)

Further reading:

The Next Bear Market

Inflation Is Going Dramatically Higher

US Dollar: A Bear Market Rally

Video: Ray Dalio @ Google Talks

Inflation Is Going Dramatically Higher

We are going to have rising inflation and a falling dollar that for political reasons the Fed will be unable to or unwilling to raise interest rates sufficiently to put out the inflationary fire and prop up the US dollar.

The Next Bear Market

US Dollar: A Bear Market Rally

The big story continues to be the bear market rally that has been going on in the US dollar the US Dollar Index today closed above 93 the low this year was just above 88 so we've risen about 5% so far in the US Dollar Index from the lows.

Is Gold Being Manipulated?

Federal Reserve: Shrinking The Balance Will Have Consequences

When Alan Greenspan took over the Federal Reserve in 1987, its balance sheet was at about $200 billion. A few years ago, it reached $4.5 trillion. Shrinking it will have consequences.

Related trading instruments: 

• SPDR S&P 500 Index ETF (SPY)
• SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF (DIA)
• iShares Russell 2000 Index ETF (IWM)
• Nasdaq 100 Index ETF (QQQ)

Inflation: The Danger To Bondholders

How comfortable are bondholders going be when inflation is above 2 percent when they're barely earning 2 percent on their bonds now? 

I mean you're not even getting 3 percent on a 10-year Treasury right now, you're getting around 2.95.

Well, if inflation is above, let's say inflation is two and a half, well you're getting two and a half percent inflation if your yield is only 2.95 you're not even getting 50 basis points. But of course after taxes you're losing money because the Treasury bond yield is not tax-free. The federal government still taxes you on the money you earn on Treasuries, so after taxes if you're getting a two point nine five percent coupon if there's two and a half percent inflation you are losing money.

Federal Reserve: Willingness To Tolerate Higher Inflation

I want to talk about what happened with the Federal Reserve this week because I think that is the most significant news of the week. In fact, I think it's the Federal Reserve's statement on Wednesday and the comments from today that's the real reason we had the 300 plus point rally in the Dow Jones Industrials Average today that's why we had the 400 plus point turnaround in the Dow on Thursday. I think it's all about the Fed and its willingness to tolerate higher inflation.

Are Rising Rates Bullish For The US Dollar?

I know people say that rising interest rates are good for the US Dollar. That's rising short-term interest rates which in theory are good for the dollar not rising long-term interest rates.

Gold & Gold Stocks

Gold continues to pullback. Remember we got above 1350 briefly and we couldn't break out and now here we are going back down to 1300 but one thing that looks good to me are the gold stocks.

US Dollar Strength: The Current Drivers

The strength of the US Dollar I think again is being driven by the rise in bond yields. The yield on the 10-year US Treasuries is back up to 2.97 percent, still below three percent but I don't think it will remain below three percent for long.

Stocks: Sell In May And Go Away

There is an old Wall Street adage sell in May and go away and the reason for that saying is that seasonally the market tends to produce better returns in the first four months of the year January through April and then historically beginning in May and throughout the summer the market could generally go down and I think the time to buy back in is typically September , October.

you know there's a lot of big down days down in September, October so kind of get out of the market in May, go away and then come back later in the year and buy back what you sold.

Well today was May 1st and it looked like a lot of people weren't gonna wait that long and they were quick to sell.

The Only Thing That Can Stop A Bear Market

I do think there's a good chance that in February we began a long overdue bear market. Technically we haven't gone down 20 percent so Wall Street still calls it a correction and recently we've had a bit of rally which to me looks like the correction in the bear market.

The only thing that would stop the bear market from actually materializing would be a change of policy by the Federal Reserve which I wouldn't rule out because I do expect the Fed to change policy.

I expect the Federal Reserve to reverse the rate hikes and to go back to zero interest rates. I expect the Fed to launch another round of quantitative easing, QE4. So if they do that before we're in an official bear market then we may never have an official bear market so I just don't know how long the Fed is gonna wait before showing its hand.

Stocks: This Is A Bear Market

It looks like the period of relative calm in the markets is over and the next leg down has begun. 

This is a bear market, the upward move was the correction. It was the first correction in this young bear market that technically is not a bear market yet because we're not down 20 percent but that's only a matter of time before people call the bear market what it is.

Global Debt Has Reached Record Levels

Global debt has reached record levels. According to a recent International Monetary Fund (IMF) report, the world has amassed $164 trillion of debt. Three countries account for half of the total global debt – the US, China and Japan.

Petroyuan Clould Be The Death Blow For The U.S. Dollar

As an article at the Gold Telegraph starkly put it, “the rise of the petroyuan could be the death blow for the U.S. Dollar.”

Podcast: The Calm Before The Storm

Peter Schiff discusses the state of the economy and his market outlook on his most recent podcast.

Gold: Ever Tightening Supply

During the Squawk Box interview, US Global Investors CEO Frank Holmes noted that the massive money-printing around the world has made gold an important part of an investment portfolio. Holmes also mentioned the ever tightening gold supply.

Related trading instruments: 

• SPDR Gold Trust ETF (GLD)
• Market Vectors Gold Miners ETF (GDX)

Stock Market: Short-Term Pain

Even President Trump came out today and he said the stock market might be in for some short-term pain right but he says it's worth it because we're going to get a long-term gain and of course he's referring to his tariffs or a trade war that we're gonna win this trade war and that's going to deliver the long-term gain. It ain't! We're gonna have short-term pain and then the pain is gonna get worse in the long run.

Gold: A Tight Trading Range

If you look at the gold chart the range is really getting compressed. We're not breaking out but we're not breaking down. It's getting narrower and narrower, we're really consolidating.

Related trading instruments: 

• Market Vectors Gold Miners ETF (GDX)
• Market Vectors Junior Gold Miners ETF (GDXJ)
• SPDR Gold Trust ETF (GLD)

Stock Market: We Are In A Bear Market

We're in a bear market, it's just not officially acknowledged yet. You know, just like a lot of times you know they don't acknowledge the recession until after you have two quarters of negative GDP growth but clearly you're in the recession for a long time before it's officially admitted. 

There's one caveat if the Federal Reserve comes in and changes the game by taking away the rate hikes or launching QE 4 then we may never make it to a bear market. But if the Federal Reserve continues on its current path and maintains the current pretense then we are in a bear market and it's only a question of time before it is officially acknowledged.

Related trading instruments: 

• SPDR S&P 500 Index ETF (SPY)
• SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF (DIA)
• iShares Russell 2000 Index ETF (IWM)
• Nasdaq 100 Index ETF (QQQ)

Stock Market: More Down Quarters To Come

The market action that I've been observing really to me looks like a bear market. 

For the first quarter all the major stock market indexes were down. This was the first time in 10 quarters as we had 9 consecutive positive quarters (I think that's a record).

The US stock market finally broke that winning streak we'll see how investors who thought the US stocks can only go up may react to their first down quarter in ten. But it's not going to be the last down quarter, I think this could be the beginning of several more down quarters to come.

Related trading instruments: 

• iShares Russell 2000 Index ETF (IWM)
• SPDR S&P 500 Index ETF (SPY)
• Nasdaq 100 Index ETF (QQQ)
• SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF (DIA)

Theres a Potential Huge Problem With Social Media Stocks (GOOG, FB, TWTR)

There's a potential huge problem with these social media sites, Google (GOOG), Facebook (FB), Twitter (TWTR). You know everybody whose business model is advertising where the user pays nothing, if you want to use Facebook, if you want to use Twitter, it costs nothing! It doesn't cost you anything to have a Twitter account, to have a Facebook account, it's all free! 

Well if it's all free how does Facebook make all this money? Well, they make all the money by selling the data that they collect from all of their users to advertisers or political campaigns or anybody who needs personal information in order to market their product or sell their product. That is the trade-off that everybody makes - you get the service for free but you know that they're using your information.

I think the public, potentially there could be a backlash regarding just how much information the social media companies are actually retaining.

How Bear Markets Operate

What a lot of people don't realize is that the stock market has some of its biggest gains daily gains they occur in bear markets not in bull markets. You have some spectacular rallies in bear markets that is how bear markets operate.

Stock Market: Volatility Is Bearish

We're having more incredible stock market volatility and I've spoken about the pick up in volatility as another sign that things are different that we've had a change because increased volatility usually happens at inflection points especially when we've had a record period of no volatility or minimal volatility all of a sudden were having incredible swings in the stock market.

Video: Will Gold Breakout as Stocks Breakdown?

Latest video market update from peter Schiff.

Topics: stock market, gold, gold mining stocks.

Stock Market: A Perfect Storm

The bond market was still lower despite the Federal Reserve optimism that inflation is going to remain in check but this could set the tone for some more weakness in the stock market. We got other problems going on with the Nasdaq and the FANG stocks and Facebook (FB) and all that seems like it could be a perfect storm brewing in an overvalued US stock market.

The Anti-Dollar Trade

I am totally all-in on this anti-dollar trade and and so this type of sentiment by retail investors on top of all of the other economic indicators market indicators that I am seeing simply cements for me how right I ultimately am on this investment strategy.

Related trading instruments: 

• Market Vectors Gold Miners ETF (GDX)
• Market Vectors Junior Gold Miners ETF (GDXJ)
• SPDR Gold Trust ETF (GLD)

Thoughts On The Stock Market Bubble

There's no way that if you are investing rationally if you are buying value stocks right and using your brain, there is no way that you're gonna outperform a bubble. Nobody can do that but of course once the bubble pops that's when the outperformance comes in. I mean and if it's a bubble you are guaranteed to outperform it if you just can wait it out because bubbles by definition always pop and when they do they collapse.

Related trading instruments: 

• SPDR S&P 500 Index ETF (SPY)
• iShares Russell 2000 Index ETF (IWM) 
• Nasdaq 100 Index ETF (QQQ) 

Did Kudlow Put In A Floor For Gold Prices?

Larry Kudlow shares his views on gold and the US Dollar.

Related trading instruments: 

• SPDR Gold Trust ETF (GLD)
• Market Vectors Gold Miners ETF (GDX)

Markets: Trump, Kudlow, Tariffs

What is Larry Kudlow done most of his life? He's been a TV personality like Trump. Yes he has worked at Bear Sterns for a while but most people know him from CNBC as a commentator and he has a lot of connections, he's regarded on Wall Street and I think this is the president trying to make that overture. This is all about show remember he's a showman.

I think that Kudlow is ultimately going to come out in support of whatever tariffs the president wants to adopt. Maybe they'll pretend that Kudlow had some influence on maybe targeting the tariffs in the right direction. Nothing has changed simply because Larry Kudlow has been has been nominated. It simply to me indicates a kind of a smart move on the part of the President given the agenda that he wants to pursue.

Markets: US Dollar, Gold

Even with today's bad economic data even with the downward revision by the Atlanta Fed the US Dollar was up slightly today. Gold was flat, it didn't really go anywhere. Nobody really perceives what's going to happen.

Retail Sales: Down 3 Months In A Row

Instead of getting a rebound we got another drop, we got another point one percent decline in February. That's a trifecta, that's three months in a row of falling retail sales. That hasn't happened in six years, I mean this is pretty rare. If you're like me and you've been very skeptical of the economy being good this is a validation because Americans are broke!

Bitcoin Is Nothing Like Gold

Bitcoin is nothing like gold despite the fact that you have all this terminology that was deliberately used to make it sound like gold. You mine Bitcoin, right? No,  there's no mines, there's no pitchforks there's nobody out there, there's no mine right? But you create them but they said it's mining and there's miners to make it sound like gold. They make the Bitcoin look like gold, it's color it looks like a coin made of gold. That's done for a reason. To create the false impression that you're buying something like gold.

Bitcoin: We've Seen The Peak In The Bubble Already

The bigger story is gonna be the money that's lost. There's gonna be so many people that are gonna lose a tremendous amount of money in these crypto currencies. There's a pretty good chance that we've seen the peak in the bubble already.

Bitcoin: I Don't Think It's Going To Work

I don't think it's going to work and people say well you just don't understand it. I think I do understand it, I think the reason that so many people are involved in it is because they don't understand it. Now, a lot of those people have made quite a bit of money by not understanding it because they bought it a long time ago and greater fools paid even higher prices and people can confuse that success with understanding.

Manufacturing Jobs Will Be Lost As A Result Of These Tariffs

Trump is right, the trade deficit is a problem but where Trump is wrong is thinking that these tariffs are going to solve the problem. They won't. They will make the problem worse. 

This is the irony of these tariffs. They will result in larger trade deficits not smaller trade deficits and that's even without any foreign retaliation meaning if China, if Europe, if our trading partners do nothing in response to these tariffs the result will be larger not smaller deficits. And manufacturing jobs, the very jobs that Trump is hoping to save, manufacturing jobs will be lost as a result of these tariffs.

The Beginning Of A Much Bigger Downturn

In February's big decline the Dow Jones Industrials Index (DJIA) dropped better than a thousand points on the month and we'll see if this is the beginning of a much bigger downturn. In fact it could easily be the beginning of a bear market.

Related trading instruments: 

• SPDR S&P 500 Index ETF (SPY)
• SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF (DIA)
• Nasdaq 100 Index ETF (QQQ)
• iShares Russell 2000 Index ETF (IWM)

How Much Longer Powell Can Pretend All Is Well?

A soaring budget and trade deficits, rising interest rates, higher inflation, a falling U.S. Dollar, protectionist tariffs, a looming trade war, and a slowing economy all portend lower corporate earnings and a bear market in stocks. Let's see how much longer Powell can pretend all is well.

Related trading instruments: 

• SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF (DIA)
• Nasdaq 100 Index ETF (QQQ)
• SPDR S&P 500 Index ETF (SPY)
• United States Steel Corporation (X)

The Dow's Record Breaking Monthly Winning Streak Has Come To An End

The Dow Jones Industrials Index (DJIA) was down 380 points today. In fact this is the second consecutive 300 point drop we've had in the Dow you know the Dow now is down about 4% for the month of February which just came to an end today and that also means the Dow's record-breaking monthly winning streak has also come to an end remember the Dow has been up every month since Donald Trump was elected president including every single month in calendar year 2017 that is something that has never happened in the history of the stock market.

Related trading instruments: 

• SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF (DIA)
• iShares Russell 2000 Index ETF (IWM)
• SPDR S&P 500 Index ETF (SPY)
• Nasdaq 100 Index ETF (QQQ)

Interest Rates Are Going a Lot Higher

Related trading instruments: 

• iShares Barclays 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT)
• 10- year U.S. Treasuries, SPDR S&P 500 Index ETF (SPY)
• SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF (DIA)
• iShares Russell 2000 Index ETF (IWM)
• Nasdaq 100 Index ETF (QQQ)

Gold Needs To Clear Overhead Resistance

We got above $1350 last week but we couldn't hold it. I think we really need to go above $1400 to really clear away this overhead resistance the only trend that really continued was the bond market continuing to go down it's pretty much a daily affair.

Related trading instruments: 

• Market Vectors Gold Miners ETF (GDX)
• Market Vectors Junior Gold Miners ETF (GDXJ)
• iShares Silver ETF (SLV)
• SPDR Gold Trust ETF (GLD)

Stock Market: The Dance That We're Doing

Why didn't the stock market follow the bond market down? Of course it's because the stock market didn't follow the bond market down that the bond market kept falling and if the stock market doesn't fall then the bond market will keep falling and interest rates will keep rising until it does (make the stock market go down), that is the dance that we're doing.

Related trading instruments: 

• SPDR S&P 500 Index ETF (SPY)
• Nasdaq 100 Index ETF (QQQ)
• SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF (DIA)

Inflation Is Good For Gold

A $12 decline (in gold prices) turned into a $25 rally what is that showing that as the idiot morons robotic sellers when they see higher than expected inflation sell the dollar people who use their brains are starting to dip to think and actually come into the market and say wait a minute I don't care what these algorithms or computer programs say inflation is good for gold.

Related trading instruments: 

• SPDR Gold Trust ETF (GLD)
• Market Vectors Gold Miners ETF (GDX)
• Market Vectors Junior Gold Miners ETF (GDXJ)

The Democrats Now Look Like The Fiscally Responsible Party

The Republicans have now succeeded in doing something that you would have thought was impossible. They are making the Democrats look like the fiscally responsible party.

The US Dollar Will Continue To Get Slaughtered

The US Dollar is going to get slaughtered a lot more and the bond market is going to get slaughter a lot more in the days ahead. Maybe not exactly tomorrow but they're going to be days that are going to come that are going to be much worse than today. This is just the beginning this is the tip of a huge iceberg that is going to be developing.

Stock Market: Bear Market or Correction?

Looking at the fundamentals this looks so much more like a bear market. In fact, when you listen to the talking heads on CNBC they keep saying, "relax don't worry you know this is a correction the market is long overdue for correction, we haven't had a correction in a long time and corrections are normal and they're healthy." And all that is true but you know we also haven't had a bear market in a long time and bear markets happen,  bear markets are normal so how do they know that we're having now is not the long overdue bear market?

Massive Volatility Is Indicative Of A Trend Change

We're continuing massive volatility which is I said to me is indicative of a change of trend because we were so long in an uptrend with no volatility now all of a sudden you have this massive volatility.

Related trading instruments: 

• Select Sector Financial Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLF)
• SPDR S&P 500 Index ETF (SPY)
• iShares Russell 2000 Index ETF (IWM)
• Nasdaq 100 Index ETF (QQQ)

Markets: Nothing Is Going To Stop Rates From Rising

Bond yields rose anyway even a 1,000 points down in the Dow Jones Industrials average wasn't even enough to send treasury yields lower with the yield on the 10-year and the 30-year rising to new highs for the move.

We had a horrible 30-year bond auction again. Why anybody showed up is beyond me but obviously not as many people showed up as they thought.  The big drop in the Dow Jones Industrials didn't make interest rates go down it just kept them from going up even more but nothing is going to stop rates from rising.

Stock Market: Volatility Signals a Trend Change

When you have a trend and then all of a sudden you see lots of volatility generally that's a sign that the trend is changing and the trend has been up obviously stocks have been trending up for years and they've been trending up with minimal volatility. When all of a sudden you see massive volatility does that mean the trend is likely to continue? No! It's more likely a sign that the trend has come to an end. (SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF (DIA), iShares Russell 2000 Index ETF (IWM), Nasdaq 100 Index ETF (QQQ), SPDR S&P 500 Index ETF (SPY))

This Just Shows How Quickly The Market Can Go Down

If you look at the five days from the high, in five trading days the Dow Jones futures lost about 13 percent of their value. In five days! Now that just shows you how quickly the market can go down, I mean, the next time it could lose even more even faster. (SPDR S&P 500 Index ETF (SPY), Nasdaq 100 Index ETF (QQQ), iShares Russell 2000 Index ETF (IWM), SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF (DIA))

Markets: The Problem With The Debt

Today if we have trillion dollar deficits not only is the Federal Reserve not monetizing any of it but the Federal Reserve is actually contributing to the problem by not rolling over the bonds that it holds as claiming it's going to shrink its balance sheet. Which means on top of the trillion dollars that the Treasury would need to sell to finance its deficits it's gonna have to sell extra Treasuries to repay the Fed what it's not rolling over. So this is impossible, this is a tidal wave of debt that's coming out of the market.

Related trading instruments: 10-Year U.S. Treasuries, iShares Barclays 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT)

Stock Market: It's a Major Decline

We didn't have a black Monday like 1987 as it wasn't a 20 percent decline but it was the biggest point decline in the history of the stock market by a large magnitude. We were down 1,175 points and we were down 1,600 points at the intraday low. So this is the biggest point decline ever but in percentage terms it is in the top 20 (I think it was like number 14 or something) but it is a major decline and we rarely see declines this big. (SPDR S&P 500 Index ETF (SPY), SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF (DIA), Nasdaq 100 Index ETF (QQQ))

Stock Market: This Brings Back Vivid Memories Of 2008

Listening to all the so-called experts on financial TV reassuring investors that there is nothing to worry about, and that the fundamentals are sound, brings back vivid memories of 2008, as that's exactly what the same experts were saying just before the financial crisis. (SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF (DIA), Nasdaq 100 Index ETF (QQQ), SPDR S&P 500 Index ETF (SPY))

Stock Market: This Year Seems To Have A Lot In Common With 1987

Think about this, 1987 was the year that we had the stock market crash. Well, January was the best month for the US stock market since 1987 and the US Dollar just had its weakest January since 1987. So far this year seems to have a lot in common with 1987.

Stock Market Correction: The Start of Something Much Bigger

A three percent correction is pretty normal except we haven't had one in a long time and the question is is this the start of something more ominous or is this just a small correction and you know what I think there's a lot of evidence that it is the start of something much bigger part of the evidence is that nobody is concerned nobody is worried there's maximum complacency. (SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF (DIA), SPDR S&P 500 Index ETF (SPY), Nasdaq 100 Index ETF (QQQ))

Pronounced Weakness In The US Dollar

January is over this is the worst January for the dollar index since 1987, this is a big move! January was the weakest month for the dollar against the yuan not just the weakest January but the weakest of any month going all the way back to 1994. So we're having some pronounced weakness in the dollar at a time where everybody is optimistic on the US economy.

Greenspan: Bubbles In Stocks & Bonds

Alan Greenspan was on CNBC today talking about the bubble in the bond market the bubble in the stock market how we're coming to stagflation how we don't have any productivity growth I mean I believe that Alan Greenspan knows exactly how bad this is.

US Economy: Closer To A Collapse

We're near the end of the game and unfortunately Trump's gonna be the fall guy. This thing is all gonna collapse while he's President and he owns the stock market bubble and he and the Republicans own the economy now thanks to these tax cuts. They're not gonna make any difference but they are gonna give the Democrats a reason to blame it all on Trump and the Republicans. We are getting closer to this collapse.

The US Economy Is Going To Blow Up

"The economy is gonna blow up but you know, it's gonna blow up like a bomb!" - Peter Schiff, in InfoWars (January 2018)

Why Wall Street Is Wrong About Gold Stocks

Peter Schiff in a recent article explains why Wall Street is wrong about gold stocks:

"When they see the price of gold going up, they’re like, ‘Well, why is the price of gold going up? I mean, what’s the point. The economy is great. There’s no inflation. The Fed is raising rates. Nobody’s buying gold. If it’s going up, it’s just going to go down.’ And so nobody sees the urgency to buy gold stocks the way they see the urgency to maybe buy oil stocks. But this is because they’re wrong. They think there is nothing to worry about. There is everything to worry about. There are so many things – there have probably never been more things to worry about. And the crazy thing is people aren’t worried about any of them. It’s probably because of the mania, because of the bubble. When you get into that mentality, nothing worries you.”

Related stocks: Goldcorp (GG), Newmont Mining (NEM), Barrick Gold (ABX), NovaGold (NG), Market Vectors Gold Miners ETF (GDX)

Stock Market: The Hidden Risks

In a recent article with Seeking Alpha, Peter Schiff highlights the hidden risks that might disrupt the stock market in th near future:

"The stock market is rising despite the fact that there are very, very negative factors that are building, that are hiding in plain sight, that everybody is ignoring.”

"Everybody thinks the economy is in great shape because they think the Fed solved the problem. No, they didn’t. They made the problem much worse! They made the problem that they created worse. But the people who think they solved it are the same people who didn’t understand it before. And they got blindsided in ’08 and they’re going to get blindsided again because they never learned from their mistakes.”

Related trading instruments: SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF (DIA), SPDR S&P 500 Index ETF (SPY), Nasdaq 100 Index ETF (QQQ)

Inflation Is Bullish For Gold

The stock market should be affected by higher interest rates but no, they don't care but they somehow think it's going to be bad for gold. But the reality is higher inflation is great for gold, that's why people buy gold as it's a hedge against inflation. So the more inflation the more demand there is for gold.

Related trading instruments: SPDR S&P 500 Index ETF (SPY), iShares Russell 2000 Index ETF (IWM), SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF (DIA), SPDR Gold Trust ETF (GLD)

Stock Market: Heading For A Crisis

This is the best start since 2006 and of course people who were buying stocks in 2006 had no idea of the magnitude of the financial crisis that would hit the market in 2008 well the same people are even more clueless today because the crisis that we're heading for is going to be much much bigger much worse than the one in 2008. (SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF (DIA), SPDR S&P 500 Index ETF (SPY), Nasdaq 100 Index ETF (QQQ), iShares Russell 2000 Index ETF (IWM))

Crude Oil: We Can See $80-100 This Year

I've been talking about oil prices going up on this podcast. This is the highest oil has closed over two years and if we get above 62.75 which is less than a dollar away that would be the highest closed in oil since December of 2014. But it was all between July of 2014 in December that oil prices collapsed from above $100 a barrel to down below 40 and so I think once we get above 63 for example, I think we got clear sailing up to 80 to $100 oil and I think we can do that this year!

The Implications of the US Dollar Weakness

On a recent tweet, Peter Schiff highlights the recent moves in crude oil and gold and the implications of the US Dollar weakness going forward: 

"Gold closed above $1,300 an ounce for the 1st time in 5 years, oil closed above $60 per barrel for the 1st time in 4 years, and the U.S. dollar fell the most in 14 years. Interesting that no one is worried about what this implies for inflation or interest rates in 2018!"

Related: SPDR Gold Trust ETF (GLD), United States Oil Fund LP ETF (USO), Nymex Crude Oil Futures

US Stock Market: This Never Happened Before In History

I think this is the first year that the Dow Jones Industrials Average (DJIA) has ever gained 5,000 points in a single year. In fact, the Dow Jones was up every month of 2017. That's never happened before in history.

In fact, we've gone 14 consecutive months without a decline and not only were we up every month but 2017 represented the lowest year ever of stock market volatility meaning that even though the market was going up it barely ever went down so it never made anybody nervous.

Related trading instruments: SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF (DIA), iShares Russell 2000 Index ETF (IWM), Nasdaq 100 Index ETF (QQQ), SPDR S&P 500 Index ETF (SPY)